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Thomas Lumley

@tslumley.bsky.social
6.3K followers 550 following 6K posts

Biostatistician. Baritone. He/Him. Product of more than one country. May contain nuts.

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Reposted by Thomas Lumley
Juraj Medzihorsky @medzihorsky.bsky.social · 11h
Shopping for clothes be like
A hand-drawn cartoon of the following dialog box
Pick two: Dress your
☐ age
☐ period
☐ cohort 

[This image was made with Gemini 3.6 Fast Extended with post-processing in GIMP]
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StatsChat Bot @statschat.bsky.social · 18h
Fool me twice This graph (from Semafor) has circulated a lot on social media It shows an incredible drop in tourist visits to the US this year. Literally incredible (literally literally). Kieran Healy explains what the problem is (we have only partial data for 2026) and gives a better graph,…
statschat.org.nz
Fool me twice
This graph (from Semafor) has circulated a lot on social media It shows an incredible drop in tourist visits to the US this year. Literally incredible (literally literally). Kieran Healy explains what the problem is (we have only partial data for 2026) and gives a better graph, showing that tourism from Canada is genuinely down to some extent, but there isn't a huge difference for other major countries (though NZ, which he doesn't look at, is also down).
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 16h
Pro-tip: sunlight is actually not a great disinfectant. Prefer bleach or live steam or gamma rays
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The Spinoff @thespinoff.bsky.social · 18h
Ipsos urges National to withdraw inaccurate claim about its polling on tax
thespinoff.co.nz
Ipsos urges National to withdraw inaccurate claim about its polling on tax
‘We take the accurate reporting of our research and survey data seriously.’
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 21h
Saw "Downlow Burgers" in Royal Oak today. I can't help thinking it's for people who identify as strictly vegetarian but eat meat
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Wētā: I do not eat human meat
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hilzoy @hilzoy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
TIL that enslaved people who ran away to the woods (as opposed to cities, the north, etc.) were referred to not just as ‘maroons’ (the term I knew), but ‘outliers.’ I checked, and this word seems originally to have referred to a stone that was quarried but not used.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The polite term "flawed" is part of the problem. Flawless trials are pretty rare (everything in clinical trials is simple but the simplest thing is difficult) This study wasn't just flawed, it was seriously misleading and implausible
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hilzoy @hilzoy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Kieran Healy, on that tourism graph. kieranhealy.org/blog/archive...
kieranhealy.org
Trump Tourism Effects
In the past day or two on social media I kept seeing this graph from a Semafor story on the declining volume of international visitors to the United States. Semafor Graph. It seems to show, and was be...
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's not actually a sheep, it's a three-toed sloth filmed upside down. You can tell from the green algae in the hair and the forward-facing eyes. #kiwibank #streisand
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Jose Pina-Sánchez 🇪🇺 @jpinasanchez.eurosky.social · 02/10/2026
If you want to learn the ABC, D & E, of Survey and Questionnaire design, check out this neat little course that our colleague Peter King has put together in collaboration with the White Rose DTP and @srmleeds.bsky.social: wrdtp.ac.uk/methods-reso...
wrdtp.ac.uk
Survey & Questionnaire Design: The ABCDE Framework
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Peter Ellis @freerangestats.info · 02/10/2026
I am looking forward to contributing to this event by talking about the challenges and opportunities of small area estimation methods, based on experience to date with real data in Pacific Island countries. This is an online workshop on 5 November, registration details in the attached image.
Promotional poster for the “Small Area Estimation in the Pacific: Current Challenges and Future Directions” online workshop. The workshop will be held on 5 November 2026 and brings together researchers, statisticians, practitioners and policymakers to discuss methodological advances, Pacific-relevant applications, data challenges, collaboration, and future capacity building in small area estimation. Registration is free and closes on 29 October 2026; the poster includes a QR code, registration link, and a list of confirmed and invited speakers from SPC, Australian universities and statistical agencies.
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Tania Roxborogh @taniaroxborogh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
So, yeah, this happened early hours this morning in Dijon France.
Top banner, burnt orange colour with the black and white Huia logo in the middle. Under that, in green background is a photo of the French cover of Charlie Tangaroa et la Creature Des Abyssses and smaller version of English Charlie. Top left corner are the words '2006 Etoiles bleues Literary Prize' and bottom right corner is a white Huia logoAccolades in France for Māori YA novel

Aotearoa author Tania Roxborogh wins Génération Mer award for Charlie Tangaroa

Author Tania Roxborogh has won a 2026 Génération Mer literary award for the French edition of her children’s novel Charlie Tangaroa and the Creature from the Sea.

The novel has been named the winner of the Étoiles Bleues – Ados category, an award celebrating books that engage readers aged 13 to 18 with marine life and the ocean.  

Originally produced in Aotearoa by Huia Publishers, Charlie Tangaroa and the Creature from the Sea was published in France by Au Vent des Îles and translated into French by Christine Roth.Roxborogh said she was deeply honoured that Charlie’s story had found another home with readers on the other side of the world.

‘It means a great deal to me that a story about a Māori boy from Aotearoa New Zealand has crossed the ocean and been welcomed in France. Stories connect us, and I think our oceans connect us too.

‘In Charlie Tangaroa, the sea isn’t simply the setting for the story. Charlie’s identity and whakapapa are connected to Tangaroa and to the moana. If we understand the ocean as something we are in relationship with, rather than simply something we own and use, that changes how we behave towards it.

‘I’m enormously grateful to Génération Mer for recognising Charlie’s story, to Christian Robert and the team at Au Vent des Îles for bringing the book to French readers, and especially to Christine Roth, whose translation has allowed French children to connect with Charlie and his world.’ Charlie Tangaroa and the Creature from the Sea follows Charlie, a Māori boy who discovers he has an extraordinary connection to the ocean and the creatures within it. The novel draws on pūrākau, whakapapa and mātauranga Māori while asking questions about the relationship between people and the natural world. It combines wild adventure and humour with themes of belonging, identity and care for the environment.

The Génération Mer award adds an international honour to a book that has already received significant recognition in Aotearoa.

Roxborogh said she was ‘delighted’ to share the news.

‘When you write a story that is grounded so firmly in Aotearoa, you don’t necessarily know whether readers thousands of kilometres away will see themselves in it. This award reminds me that the particular can also be universal. Charlie can remain completely himself—a Māori kid from Aotearoa—and still make a connection with a young reader in France.’
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 01/10/2026
The 2024 AAPOR Task Force on polling accuracy collected a really thorough set of polls and checked them for legitimacy. See Figure 2.1.1 on page 16. The light lines are polling bias-levels toward Democrats. The solid lines are the levels of absolute/random error. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
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Dr Dean Knight @drdeanknight.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Pleased to see policy here addressing scourge of urgency etc -- esp post-enactment scrutiny for expedited laws, which I've been promoting for a while. While I'm supportive of an elevated threshold for urgency, I'm disappointed 100-day plan policies are exempted. www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-...
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
'Statisticians learn hierarchical models as tools; nobody in a statistics seminar says, “This is a response to a 150-year-old problem in the foundations of probability.” And nobody in a philosophy seminar says, “The answer is lme4."' sudippaul.substack.com/p/partial-po...
sudippaul.substack.com
Partial pooling as an answer to the reference class problem
What should be the correct reference class?
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The real reason it's expensive to remove level crossings 🦑🐙🚊
Yellow poster saying "Safe to cross?" above a cartoon of a level crossing with three enormous suckered tentacles emerging from a hole under the tracks
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Hilda Bastian @hildabast.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
My latest nextgen Covid vax update is online: * New feature* Combined flu & Covid vaccines — the first one has been approved for people 50 & over, and a massive effectiveness trial is beginning in Denmark & Spain ... 1/2 vaxtracker.wordpress.com/2026/09/29/t...
vaxtracker.wordpress.com
Flu-Covid combo vax & monthly update of nextgen Covid vax news
Moderna has the first combined flu-Covid vaccine to cross the finish line. An overview of that race plus an update on nextgen Covid vaccine news.
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Jaz @jaz.sh · 27/09/2026
Okay so I've built a new Atlas, this time it lets you explore the conversations on Bluesky over the past 7 days graphically. It should update every ~6 hours and help you navigate the information environment that exists on here. I've learned a LOT about what people do here today... atlas.jazco.dev
atlas.jazco.dev
Atlas
A living map of what Bluesky is talking about: the past week's conversations, grouped into topics and regions and rebuilt every six hours.
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Ryan @ryanwright.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is how I remember the order of Henry VIII’s wives.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Prediction is hard
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
In the run up to PREFU: "it happens to be the case that the OBR scores gilts issuance and not collapsing school walls and flooding, but both of them are predictable future expenses"
backofmind.substack.com
concrete and fiction
the accounting system as mental prison, once more
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Again, no trains from Onehunga for an hour and no warning in the AT Mobile app
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Newsroom NZ @newsroom.co.nz · 27/09/2026
Shoddy studies keep making the news – and they’re all over social media. What are some solutions to the rising tide of misinformation?
newsroom.co.nz
The media is polluted with bad science, but there are ways to clean it up
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KiwiNewsBot @kiwinewsbot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Nine new rubbish school subjects announced by club #rubbish
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Dr Jo Kershaw @mthrjo.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
“‘Hell!' said Harriet. 'Oxford, thou too?'”
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Max Johns (MxDEJ) @maxjohns.nz · 27/09/2026
I'm no demographer nor a criminologist, but I reckon that the Herald probably has Auckland's murder rate wrong here. I reckon it's probably lower than 3.6 per person.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
So, language question: in the US, 'charcuterie' now principally seems to mean the art of arranging ham and cheese &c on a plate or board, rather that just meaning the cold cooked/cured meat products themselves (from the French). Is this also true in Strine or Kiwi or British English?
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
PSA: International Time Zone Chaos season starts tonight and runs for 5-6 weeks.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Signposting for moving between platforms at Maungawhau is ok by escalator but mostly missing by lift.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Outside the US this is celebrated on the ninety-second of May, ie, July 31. #DollyParton92/5
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Derek Lowe @dereklowe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I note that the picture of the "European Academy of Engineering" that comes up in Google Maps is an altered version a 2022 picture of a main building of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. The facade has been digitally reworked to make it look like the engineering academy!
A side by side comparison of an altered version (top) of a Gothenburg University building versus the actual 2022 photo (bottom), which was a show of solidarity with Ukraine
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Why are people still calling it ANCOVA?
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"...refuting the monophyly of the echolocating lineage": no such thing as a bat signal
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Anna Fergusson @annafergusson.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This is the week in my intro data science course where students learn that runif() is said r-unif not run-if, & they are like "duh" but no one had ever said it out loud before so they didn't know. Def read/watch more about this from @amelia.mn & of course @felienne.mastodon.social.ap.brid.gy, links⬇️
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"Most of them are fairly innocuous, such as controlling dark mode. One setting, however, is anything but innocuous. It allows processes to change the endpoint where transcription occurs." #oops arstechnica.com/security/202...
arstechnica.com
Muse, Meta's extraordinarily privileged AI assistant, has a serious 0-day
A simple ClickFix attack is only one way to completely hijack the new agent.
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Australian Antarctic Program Partnership @antarctic.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
🌊 We've released a #Saildrone into the wild! Seven metres long, the solar-powered autonomous uncrewed vessel will circumnavigate #Antarctica to collect data on carbon dioxide absorbed by the Southern Ocean – crucial for predicting climate change. SD1092 is the first of four over the next few years.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
@lyndonhood.bsky.social they're playing your song
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Mike Dickison @adzebill.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The Wikimedian in Residence at the University of Otago is running a Scarfie Flats competition, starting 1 October. It's to get people to document and upload photos of classic Dunedin flats under an open licence, for Wikipedia and the historical record. commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Event:W...
commons.wikimedia.org
Event:Wiki Loves Scarfie Flats 2026 - Wikimedia Commons
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ViCBiostat @vicbiostat.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Seminar announcement Dianne (Di) Cook: Practical Tools for Data Exploration in Biostatistics 15 October, 4-5pm AEST via Zoom Further details: www.vicbiostat.org.au/event/practi... @visnut.bsky.social
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Auckland, 15 minutes before the southward equinox. Also, the new oak leaves mean I've been in Aotearoa for another whole year (16 years)
A large oak tree with bright green new leaves and a huge Moreton Bay fig in dull green.  Gray city, gray sky, gray midsection of Sky Tower.
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Rafael H. M. Pereira 🚡 Urban Demographics @urbandemog.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
📢 For those working with Brazilian Census data, some good news: the R package censobr has been updated. Version v1.0.0 is now available on CRAN. ipea.github.io/censobr/inde... This release includes:
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Brady West @bradytwest.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The University of Michigan National Survey Panel (M-Panel) is now openly accepting questionnaire content from researchers. Would you like to ask questions to a national probability-based panel of adults in the U.S., with an oversample from Michigan? Tap below! mpanel.isr.umich.edu/for-research...
mpanel.isr.umich.edu
For Researchers | M-Panel: National Survey PanelFor Researchers – M-Panel: National Survey Panel
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
News story about statistical QC and its discontents (driving tests) www.1news.co.nz/2026/09/22/p...
1news.co.nz
'Painful and unfair': Driver testing officer defends record after NZTA suspension
Michaela Howe has been prohibited from testing drivers amid a major investigation by the transport agency.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Several red flags 1) Online panel sources, plural? For a survey of <700 voters? Why? 2) "Respondents outside the sampled population" 3) "Representative of Democratic voters by age, ethnicity, and gender" ... but sourcing weighting targets how? It's not like CPS has party.
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Eddie Clark @dreddieclark.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This nonsense of "introducing legislation we know we won't even get to the first reading of three seconds before the house rises" is yet another - in a list of many - abuse of the legislative process by this government. It overloads PCO, leading to worse drafting, and achieves nothing meaningful.
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Thomas Lumley @tslumley.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Two brains or one brain with two natures?
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Richard Easther @rjme.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Folks -- anyone keen to put their hand up on this; email in the alt text and my contact details are easy to find?
The New Zealand Institute of Physics is developing a campaign to convey information about I build support for physics (news items, career information, study opportunities etc) to a ariety of audiences (young people, teachers, physics professionals, policy makers etc. 

Part of is work includes the design and development of a communications strategy (along with a website and potentially associated printed materials) and we are seeking expressions of interest to help build this.

president@nzip.org.nz
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R Consortium @rconsortium.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What does it take to sustain R? Join R Consortium, R Core & R Foundation Oct 6 to discuss the people, infrastructure & community behind R. 12 PM PT / 3 PM ET / 8 PM London Register: r-consortium.org/webinars/sus... #RStats
Graphic for upcoming R Core and R Foundation panel discussion - Oct 6, 2026
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Sophie Fern @sophiefern.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I have written some Very Serious Thoughts about the "shy" description of the Chatham island Black robin here: sophie-fern.medium.com/dear-headlin...
sophie-fern.medium.com
Dear Headline Writer: Karure Are Not Shy
I’d been off the boat for less than an hour and was maybe ten metres into the bush when I saw my first ever karure/Chatham Island black…
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