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Alex Bollfrass

@bollfrass.bsky.social
2K followers 1.3K following 10 posts

Nuclear weapons and intelligence history.

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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
🔎 New #IISS episode of "The Arms Control Primer": “Better know a non-nuke: Germany”. Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social talks with Prof Marina Henke& Dr Lutsch Andreas about Germany’s nuclear path, NATO sharing, the NPT & today’s deterrence debate amid Russia’s war. 🎧 tinyurl.com/3b9xezvz
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Reposted by Alex Bollfrass
EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
South Africa is the only state to have built and then fully dismantled a nuclear arsenal. In the latest episode of The Arms Control Primer (#IISS), @bollfrass.bsky.social, Anna-Mart van Wyk and Robin Möser explore how and why it happened. Listen: tinyurl.com/3n44fdbu
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Today in 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis formally began when President John F. Kennedy was briefed on photographs from an October 14 U-2 overflight—analyzed at the National Photographic Interpretation Center on October 15—showing clear evidence of Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles on the island.
A color photograph of the mid-rise steel and glass building at Fifth and K Streets, NW, in Washington, DC, whose upper floors housed the CIA's National Photographic Interpretation Center. The building shared a block with Steuart Motor Company, a Ford dealership. black and white photograph of one of the work areas inside the National Photographic Interpretation Center. Two different work stations, separated by a partition, are labeled on the wall above as "Low Altitude Reconnaissance Exploitation," and "High Altitude Reconnaissance Exploitation." Each station features multiple angled light tables to closely examine images on spools of film.A declassified black and white aerial reconnaissance photograph taken by a U-2 surveillance plane on October 14, 1962 (but analyzed and annotated on October 15), showing a missile encampment at Los Palacios, Cuba (22-40N, 83-15W), with tents, 6 missile trailers, a truck convoy, and equipment labeled.A declassified black and white aerial reconnaissance photograph taken by a U-2 surveillance plane on October 14, 1962 (but analyzed and annotated on October 15), showing a medium-range ballistic missile launch site at San Diego De Los Banos, Cuba (22-40N, 83-17W), with tent areas, 8 missile trailers, "4 probable erector/launcher equipment," construction, and equipment labeled.
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Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
🚨 NEW SEASON 🚨 🎙️ Season 5 of The Arms Control Primer by #IISS kicks off! Host @bollfrass.bsky.social with Dr. Nicole Grajewski & Dr. Azadeh Zamirirad unpack #Iran’s nuclear programme—from the Shah to the JCPOA, the 2025 Israel–Iran conflict & what’s next. 🔗 go.iiss.org/4mDZYuV
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
French ambassador issues explicit nuclear security to NATO allies: “Our French vital interests also include the interests of our allies. In that perspective, the nuclear umbrella also applies to our allies and of course Sweden is among them.” www.svt.se/nyheter/loka...
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
🎧 The concluding episode of #IISS #TheArmsControlPoseur is here: Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social & Zuzanna Gwadera reflect on nuclear strategy, global risk dynamics & the future of #ArmsControl. Catch the highlights from Season 4👇 🔗 tinyurl.com/wzu6ap6d #NonProliferation #EUNPDC
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J. Luis Rodriguez @jluisrodriguez.com · 23/04/2025
I'm thrilled that this @lawfaremedia.org piece is out! I trace how Mexico has tried to use international law to delegitimize a unilateral U.S. deployment of troops in Mexican territory vs cartels. I focus particularly on Mexico's rejection of the "unwilling or unable" doctrine of self-defense.
lawfaremedia.org
The Counterproductive Legal Precedent That Strikes on Cartels Would Set
Mexico rejects the “unwilling or unable” doctrine of self-defense. The United States should, too.
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
🎧 Tune in to the latest episode of #TheArmsControlPoseur by #IISS featuring Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @dbsalisbury.bsky.social & @nktpnd.bsky.social on North Korea’s nuclear posture & what’s next for diplomacy. 🧵👇 🔗 tinyurl.com/2ja3b34z #EUNPDC #NonProliferation #ArmsControl
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
"A cyber no first use agreement between India and Pakistan would serve as a foundational arms control measure [...]" 🎧 Listen to the latest #IISS podcast on #Pakistan with Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr @rabsaa.bsky.social & Dr @mansoorahmed.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/4tvbufsp #EUNPDC #ArmsControl
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Host Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social is joined by experts Dr @rabsaa.bsky.social & Dr @mansoorahmed.bsky.social Together they explore Pakistan’s nuclear history, evolving doctrine & the future of #ArmsControl in South Asia. ➡️https://tinyurl.com/4tvbufsp #EUNPDC #NonProliferation
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 03/04/2025
If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?
Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are reconsidering their stance on nuclear deterrence. Given the capabilities of the French and British arsenals, can Europe devel...
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
With host Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social & experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar. 🎧 Listen the full episode here ➡️ tinyurl.com/y45ewt5a
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Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me. We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma. Access the full piece via this link: www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ... Short summary below: 1/x
foreignaffairs.com
Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma
The difficult and dangerous options for post-American deterrence.
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
What shaped India’s #NuclearWeapons programme, and what risks remain in South Asia’s strategic landscape? In the latest #IISS podcast #TheArmsControlPoseur, @bollfrass.bsky.social speaks with experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar. 🎧 🔗 tinyurl.com/y45ewt5a #EUNPDC #India
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
🎧 Tune into the latest #IISS podcast, where host Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social is joined by leading nuclear policy expert Dr. Or Rabinowitz for an in-depth discussion on the history, strategic logic, and future of Israel’s nuclear programme. tinyurl.com/ze9rjzp2 #EUNPDC #NonProliferation
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
🎙️New podcast episode: How is China’s nuclear posture evolving? In IISS’s #TheArmsControlPoseur, host @bollfrass.bsky.social talks with Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @tongzhao.bsky.social & Dr @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social on China’s nuclear expansion & its global impact. 🔗 Listen now: tinyurl.com/mr2acmx6
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
🎙 New episode of the #ArmsControlPoseur Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social speaks w/@hfayet.bsky.social, Emmanuelle Maitre & Dr. @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social on France's #nuclear arsenal: its history, strategy & role in #EuropeanSecurity. 🎧 Listen now: 🔗 tinyurl.com/yc75dvmz #ArmsControl #NonProliferation
tinyurl.com
S4.E4: Better know a nuke: France
Since the Cold War, France has charted an independent course in nuclear policy, without relying on external security guarantees. But what makes France’s nuclear strategy different from that of the Uni
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Mauro Gilli @maurogilli.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Important reminder: long-range precision munitions are useless without accurate and real time targeting data - the geolocation of static targets or the tracking of mobile targets. We will see what it means in detail, definitively is going to shrink Ukraine capacity to fight.
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EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament @eunpdc.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
🎙️ NEW PODCAST: In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur from IISS, Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, @lydiawachs.bsky.social & @baklitskiy.bsky.social discuss how Russia’s nuclear arsenal has evolved from the Soviet era & what #Armscontrol means for global security today. 🎧 Listen : tinyurl.com/59bkpxsf
tinyurl.com
S4.E2 Better know a nuke: The Soviet Union and Russia
How has the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics’ nuclear policy evolved into Russia’s current arsenal? How have arms control treaties shaped nuclear stability – or failed to do so? And how can fut
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Lydia Wachs @lydiawachs.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
New podcast🚀 @baklitskiy.bsky.social & I join @bollfrass.bsky.social on IISS' 'The Arms Control Poseur' podcast to discuss the evolution of #Russia's #nuclear arsenal, arms racing & arms control⬇️ open.spotify.com/episode/6uYh...
open.spotify.com
Better know a nuke: The Soviet Union and Russia
The Arms Control Poseur · Episode
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 12/02/2025
Russian defence spending exceeds all of Europe combined, study finds www.ft.com/content/93d44b5a-a087-40…
ft.com
Russian defence spending exceeds all of Europe combined, study finds
IISS assessment lays bare challenges facing Europe should US cut back Ukraine military support
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
My piece with Or Rabinowitz in Foreign Affairs on Russia-Iran-Israel dynamics, Russia’s support for Iran’s nuclear program, and the options for US policy going forward www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/will-...
foreignaffairs.com
Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go Nuclear?
Trump’s “maximum pressure” could push Tehran and Moscow even closer.
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
I am fairly pleased with this table that I cobbled together for a guest lecture next week on the different narratives about the use of the atomic bomb in World War II, and creating an example of ways in which they can be compared to each other in an overarching way.
A table titled "Atomic Bomb Narratives," which compares the properties of three different narratives about the use of the atomic bomb during World War II. Each narrative is a column, with each row corresponding to one of 7 different narrative properties: "nature of the 
use decision", "motivation(s) for use of bomb", "outcome
necessary for surrender?", "originators", "genre", and "message".

The first narrative is labeled "orthodox/the decision to use the bomb." Nature: "moral deliberation." Motivation: "avoid invasion." Output: "ended war, saved lives." Necessary: "yes." Originators: "government officials who made/dropped bomb." Genre: "heroic." Message: "the ends justify the means."

The second narrative is labeled "revisionist/atomic diplomacy." Nature: "diplomatic intrigue." Motivation: "flex on Soviets." Output: "began Cold War." Necessary: "no." Originators: "critics, Marxists." Genre: "tragic." Message: "don't trust the US government."

The third narrative is labeled "consensus/bureaucratic inertia." Nature: "accumulation of assumptions." Motivation: "multiple, overdetermined." Output: "contributed to end of war (with Soviet invasion)." Necessary: "maybe, maybe not." Originators: "academic historians." Genre: "comedic (chaotic)." Message: "history is really messy."
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Daniel Salisbury @dbsalisbury.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Great to share my latest historical piece for @nknewsorg.bsky.social — the story of how the DPRK used its embassy in East Berlin to illicitly procure 86 Hughes Helicopters in the mid-1980s. www.nknews.org/2024/11/how-...
nknews.org
How North Korean diplomats illicitly acquired US helicopters for the Kim regime | NK News
The North Korean Embassy in Berlin has been the site of sanctions evasion controversy in recent years, hosting a hostel found to have breached sanctions by paying rent of 38,000 euros a month to the D...
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Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
A „[European] tripwire force would amount to an Article 5 guarantee by another name. Countries should not offer such a promise to Ukraine unless they are ready to honour it—as walking away under Russian fire would undermine them as members of NATO, too, perhaps fatally.“
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Russia issued a new nuclear policy document. Here is an illustration of the changes between the 2020 and 2024 texts relating to the conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons. I think its old wine in a new bottle.
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Aaron Bateman @aaronbateman.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
Declassified image of a Hexagon reconnaissance satellite film capsule that plunged 16,000 feet into the ocean depths in 1971. The Navy then sent down a deep sea submersible to recover it to ensure the Soviets didn’t get to it first.
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Taylor Grossman @tgrossman.bsky.social · 01/03/2024
In a new piece for @bindinghook.bsky.social, I wrote about EU and NATO cyber rapid response teams and the structural and governance challenges they face bindinghook.com/articles-bin...
bindinghook.com
Europe’s cyber rapid response teams should pivot to proactive missions - Binding hook
Taylor Grossman finds that NATO and EU cyber rapid response teams are not built to respond rapidly to emergencies
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 14/12/2023
Imagery from military simulation games have become a misinformation scourge. @kjallen.bsky.social has ideas for mitigating the problem bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
bindinghook.com
Fighting fake war imagery - Binding hook
Online misinformation from military simulation games can be mitigated
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Kye Allen @kjallen.bsky.social · 14/12/2023
A new piece I wrote for @bindinghook.bsky.social exploring the online trend of misinformation emerging from military simulation games. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
bindinghook.com
Fighting fake war imagery - Binding hook
Online misinformation from military simulation games can be mitigated
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 11/01/2024
From 'Poor Man's Air Force' to Defensive Dominance, dive into the evolution of military tactics with Mauro Gilli and Niklas Masuhr. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 15/01/2024
Monica Kello explores the cultural forces driving Russia's foreign cyber operations bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
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Monica Kello @monicakello.bsky.social · 15/01/2024
In a new piece for @bindinghook.bsky.social I argue that Russia’s foreign cyber operations are driven by its strategic culture, which responses to them should consider. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 08/02/2024
Claude Shannon’s Information Theory has always had its limits. Decades later, on the cusp of generative AI, his warnings ring true. Read more in a new piece for @bindinghook.bsky.social from @gavinwilde.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-bin...
bindinghook.com
The Uncertainty Maschine - Binding hook
Claude Shannon’s Information Theory has always had its limits. Decades later, on the cusp of generative AI, his warnings ring true
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Max Smeets @maxwsmeets.bsky.social · 08/02/2024
The brilliant @gavinwilde.bsky.social on information theory and LLMs for @bindinghook.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-bin...
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 19/12/2023
Check out the Binding Hook hoppy holidays guide to technology-themed beers for the season’s pour decisions by @dbsalisbury.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-bin...
bindinghook.com
Covert Hops - Binding hook
The Binding Hook hoppy holidays guide to technology-themed beers for the season’s pour decisions
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 13/12/2023
In a new article, Mauro Vignati explores a troubling trend: civilians taking part in armed conflicts through digital means. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
bindinghook.com
Civilian hackers blur the lines of modern conflict - Binding hook
Hackers must be aware of their legal obligations in war
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 04/12/2023
@maxwsmeets.bsky.social explains that to truly measure sophistication, we need to look past the technical and consider the broader elements of cyber operations bindinghook.com/articles-bin...
bindinghook.com
The magic of sophisticated cyber attacks - Binding hook
To truly measure sophistication, we need to look past the technical and consider the broader elements of cyber operations
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Andrew Facini @andrewfacini.com · 29/11/2023
What do you find when you look at the *types* of nuclear weapons in the world? 🚀 Absolutely thrilled today to launch with my CSR colleagues the Nuclear Weapons Systems Project—a dataset & tracker of every type of nuclear weapon ever deployed by the P5. councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/11/29/i...
councilonstrategicrisks.org
Looking at Nuclear Weapons by Type: Introducing the Nuclear Weapon Systems Project - The Council on ...
Diving into CSR's launch of a clear, concise repository of deployed nuclear weapons across their history.
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Anita Gohdes @argohdes.bsky.social · 28/11/2023
Important reminder by @runasand.bsky.social - even though we've known about the dangers of spyware for years, little is being done to stop their spread. @bindinghook.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 22/11/2023
“Similar to controlling roads and access to electricity, controlling a country’s digital networks allows conflict parties to signal their capabilities and claim to be the designated ruler,” argues @argohdes.bsky.social in a new piece for Binding Hook bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...
bindinghook.com
Digital infrastructure is strategic terrain - Binding hook
In today’s wars, combatants fight over digital infrastructure control
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Binding Hook @bindinghook.bsky.social · 22/11/2023
“The cybersecurity field overemphasises the security of states and underemphasises how it affects people, especially those most marginalised,” argues Anubha Gupta bindinghook.com/articles-bin...
bindinghook.com
Dalits battle caste-based cyber insecurity every day - Binding hook
Dalits and other marginalised communities' online experiences offer a crucial perspective on often overlooked cyber insecurities
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