iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

This offer valid only for selected countries.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It’s a Hwasong-11 with a glider. BORING.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I did not realize the DF-15A had thrust termination ports!

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Colleagues from around the world joined us @fpri.bsky.social in Philadelphia for a TTX to study nuclear escalation dynamics in space. Thanks to @slair.bsky.social @duitsmanms.bsky.social @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and Emily Holland for support. Game report coming soon!

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

It’s nice because I can ask Claude to generate complicated CLI strings, which I would routinely mistype.

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thinkingbayonet.bsky.social @thinkingbayonet.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Houthis: what the fuck, you told us it was economical to build the IR sensor with aluminum foil instead of mercury cadmium telluride Claude: That is exactly the right challenge to raise, and the honest answer is that the claim was asserted rather than demonstrated. Inshallah it won't happen again

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Stanford CISAC @stanfordcisac.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Please join us in welcoming Jeffrey Lewis (@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social) and Or Rabinowitz to CISAC! Both scholars bring expertise in nuclear weapons policy, nonproliferation, open-source intelligence, and international nuclear diplomacy to Stanford. cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/news/cisac-w...

cisac.fsi.stanford.edu

CISAC Welcomes Nuclear Security Scholars Jeffrey Lewis and Or Rabinowitz

Jeffrey Lewis and Or Rabinowitz bring expertise in nuclear weapons policy, nonproliferation, open-source intelligence, and international nuclear diplomacy to Stanford.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

+1. A lot of the construction of risk has to do with underlying priors about existential and catastrophic risk more so than the particularities of a given technology. That doesn’t mean the view is invalid; but it does imply one should interrogate those assumptions.

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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

I think people with no exposure to effective altruism/online rationalist communities are having a very hard time making sense of the doom-talk coming out of the frontier labs. A bit of orientation with those worlds is helpful context.

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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Curious about how to model a constellation of space-based interceptors? Well @aaronstein1.bsky.social, @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, & I have a report for you! We tailored SBI constellations to genuine adversary missile threats to get a more realistic, flexible sense of their size & cost

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This is a good answer and it beats the hell out of the alternative.

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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 01/09/2026

Read @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social on why Trump’s plan for a Golden Dome missile shield might accelerate the arms race with China and Russia:

foreignaffairs.com

The Powder Keg in Outer Space

How to head off a new arms competition.

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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

I return to the Arms Control Wonk Podcast to talk Golden Dome and SBIs with @aaronstein1.bsky.social and @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social Come for our explanations of math, stay to hear what everyone's favorite SBI countermeasure is! www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...

armscontrolwonk.com

Calculating the Cost of Golden Dome

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Trump says North Korea has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons." 57 is an oddly specific number. A short 🧵on why the real number is almost certainly higher.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

I wish we would take this opportunity to reduce over-classification instead of endorsing over-classification as a pretext to attack Trump. He’s broken enough real laws that we don’t have to endorse the fake ones.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

The code works fine but … yeah. Variable names are a nightmare.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

My colleague @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast the history of our now decade-and-half old show, his future, my future, and our major plans for 2027 and beyond www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...

armscontrolwonk.com

From Past to Future

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Fact check: True. Caddell was talking about Reagan-like landslide for Romney in 2012 but in the end it wasn’t even particularly close as Obama swept Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, while picking off Florida and Ohio.

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Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

someone needs to stop her with extreme prejudice

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Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

the idiot nuke book was also obsessed with this idea that COG was solely about making sure ((((~the elites~)))) survived the war and not about, yknow, ensuring a government with continuity in order to do governing things for the people within its governance bsky.app/profile/ggro...

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

The fact that I can query the codebase means I know a lot more about how Thrusty works than, say, Missile Tool Kit.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

First our OSINT team, now LeBron. It’s been a good week for Philly. @fpri.bsky.social

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Some news! As many of you know, I've been a Distinguished Research Fellow at @fpri.bsky.social consulting with @aaronstein1.bsky.social on space and missile defense. Today it gets much better: the whole freaking open-source research team is joining FPRI full time. (1/4)

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

This isn't true, at least not yet. Most generative AI leaves very distinct digital signatures that aren't so hard to spot. That might not be true forever, of course, and things are changing fast ... but I strongly suspect we could tell the difference with relatively early generation image.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

If anyone has the original McConnell photo, I'd be delighted to run it through our photo forensics software (Tungstene) -- although I have no real doubts about it.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Given the navigation warnings that China issued, the range of the SLBM was probably about 7,000 km--more consistent with the JL-2 than the 10,000 km range JL-3. (However, range in US docs is often carefully hedged, i.e. "According to media sources" or "PRC sources claim".)

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

A few thoughts on China's SLBM test. This isn't as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be. Nuclear weapons states have missiles and they test them.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

One of these things is not like the others. Take a deep breath, people.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

I very much want the USMNT to defeat Bosnia but either way it is a VICTORY FOR AMERICAN AIRPOWER.

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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

The blogfather — @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social — and I sat down to discuss the Iran-US MoU and why we still can’t find it on a .gov website www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...

armscontrolwonk.com

MOU 404

The US-Iran MOU is humiliating, it was signed at Versailles, and its still not on any government website. In fact, if you try a .gov keyword search [...]

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

After more than fifteen years, I've resigned from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 280 characters isn't enough to name all the colleagues who, against all better judgment, became friends. You know who you are — whether you should admit it is a separate question.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

These are just fireworks to celebrate the signing of the MOU and the fact that the Strait is very, very open.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

This new translation of Clausewitz is 🔥. "Each strives by physical force to compel the other to submit to his will: each endeavours to throw his adversary, and thus render him incapable of further resistance or, where throwing proves taxing, to prevail narrowly on points."

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Read Albright's retraction demand, then read @jongambrell.bsky.social's article. 5 ¶s of grievances ("irresponsible," "misleading," "false facts," and a take-down demand) over a fact-check of a Netanyahu claim, citing @odnigov.bsky.social 's assessment that "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon."

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

This is infuriating, @apnews.com. Iran's HEU is not now, and has never been, "buried under rubble." The Iranians accessed the tunnels in January and then re-buried the entrances as a protective measure in February. They're periodically doing things on site with bulldozers, etc (April).

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Shooting at low flying things has this risk -- that's more or less how CENTCOM ended up hitting a neighborhood in Bahrain (twice) with a Patriot interceptor.

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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

honestly, I think Trump should convert to Islam, just to see how many of them would follow.

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Mike Black @mikeblack114.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

has mark dubowitz blown his head off yet or

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

Just checking in on that better deal we were promised.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

“Trump praised the deal reached with Iran during his visit to the G7 in France and signed a copy of the MOU tonight at Versailles.” GTFO. He really signed it in Versailles?

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Popehat @kenwhite.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Ben Shapiro dryly pursues agenda that the Dear Leader cannot fail; the Dear Leader can only be failed.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

While the ¶10,11 payments to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ¶6 are embarrassing, the general approach seems sound -- vague, fraught with pitfalls, could collapse at any time, etc. but that's all to be expected. More fighting won't produce a better outcome. diplomatic.substack.com/p/the-us-ira...

diplomatic.substack.com

Text of the US/Iran ‘Understanding’

Here is the text of the Memeorandum of Understanding reached by the United States and Iran, according to my transcription of what a senior U.S.

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

For a "formal setting" may I suggest a battleship in the Strait of Hormuz?

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jordan @jordantyranny.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

DINOSAURS ARE COOL TRANSPHOBIA IS NOT

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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Obviously, I am going to be a jerk about this … but as bad as it is that Trump lost a war, lit billions of taxpayer money on fire, killed a bunch of kids, and left Iran in control of a strategic choke point … at least he’s quitting while he’s behind.

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