Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 20/09/2026A realist discovers that economic statecraft matters and contemporary power has multiple dimensions 083
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 01/07/2026There is absolutely zero doubt that under @adreher.bsky.social ‘s tenure, RIO was the best managed journal in the field by quite some margin, publishing consistently great work. Tough but fair, with incredible response time. Thank you for your service! 131
Reposted by Michal OndercoEuropean Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 15/04/2026AI-enabled warfare is giving the US unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, argues @profonderco.bsky.social. From Venezuela to Iran, lower-risk operations lower the bar for war, exposing allies to miscalculation. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...europeanleadershipnetwork.orgAI enables strategic stupidity. That should terrify EuropeAI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to st... 022
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Recent military operations in Venezuela and Iran show that the AI gives the US tactical excellence but enables strategic stupidity. What are the three reasons this should terrify Europe? Read in my new piece for @theeln.bsky.social -> europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...europeanleadershipnetwork.orgAI enables strategic stupidity. That should terrify EuropeAI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to st... 031
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 11/03/2026Very excited to present my book at @managingtheatom.bsky.social next week! 010
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 09/03/2026Thanks to @tomwetienne.bsky.social and an accident, we now know whether Oppenheimer changed how people think about nuclear weapons 👇. Now our in @ipsr-risp.bsky.social 010
Reposted by Michal OndercoElizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 28/02/2026Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/goodauthority.orgTrump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him?Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders aren’t reliable constraints on Trump’s foreign policy decisions. 16644239
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 28/02/2026If you have time to read only one thing on today’s strikes, make it @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social ‘s analysis in @thebulletin.org . 0154
Reposted by Michal OndercoJames Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 28/02/2026The "debate" in the run-up to this makes Iraq 2003 look like the Athenian polis. 441275
Reposted by Michal OndercoFinnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 26/02/2026This week at a FIIA seminar, @profonderco.bsky.social, @pesumatti.bsky.social and Katja Creutz discussed the complexity of democratic foreign policy-making on nuclear security in the twenty-first century. Watch the recording ⤵️ fiia.fi/en/tapahtumat/europes-nuclear-umbrella 062
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 19/02/2026This was a great event, and i’m very thankful to Andrej Findor for organizing it! 010
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 15/02/2026Mijn eerste keer op nederlandse live radio, en dan bij @ovt-vpro.bsky.social ! 030
Reposted by Michal OndercoClaudia Major @claudmajor.bsky.social · 12/02/2026What nuclear options does Europe have with less US; or without? Our study is now published 👇 , a fantastic teamwork of the European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social James Davis & myself. 110226
Reposted by Michal OndercoEuropean Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 12/02/202665.1🦋 Attitudes toward international organisations? 🌍 Exploring #Technocratic & #Populist attitudes, Reinout van der Veer & @profonderco.bsky.social use survey data across five European 🏤 countries to explain how people view #InternationalOrganisationsbuff.lyRepresentation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge CoreRepresentation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations - Volume 65 Issue 1 042
Reposted by Michal OndercoJames Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 11/02/2026Interesting attempt to summarize Europe's deterrence options/dilemmas on page 56 of the @munsecconf.bsky.social European deterrence report. securityconference.org/en/publicati... 26213
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 11/02/2026Thanks to everyone for joining the launch of Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella yesterday in The Hague. Thanks especially to the discussants Michaele de Goeij, @lindedesma.bsky.social and Sico van der Meer. 040
Reposted by Michal OndercoAndrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 05/02/2026A few words (in Slovak) about #NewSTART by @profonderco.bsky.social for @pravdask.bsky.social. spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/...spravy.pravda.skPriblížil sa svet k jadrovej vojne? Posledná atómová dohoda medzi USA a Ruskom vypršalaSystém dohôd obmedzujúcich počty a nasadenie jadrových zbraní medzi Spojenými štátmi a Ruskom sa rozpadol. 031
Reposted by Michal OndercoMarcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 04/02/2026Final update: The translator sent a very kind email to explain the context around all this. If even a single Iranian can draw strength from the book, I'm glad it was published in Farsi. It's an honour and I hope you will succeed 1142
Reposted by Michal OndercoMaaike @maaikeverbruggen.bsky.social · 30/01/2026Netherlands will be "constructive" towards the "strenghtening of a European nuclear deterrent" They will join the Treaty of Achen (Franco-German defence cooperation treaty) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aachen_... 173
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 23/01/2026As someone who sat on the Sartori Prize cmte last yr, I have to say that RISP consistently delivers clever high-quality papers with good data and relevant questions. Hard to find another “national” journal in Europe with such good quality. This paper fits the pattern. 042
Reposted by Michal OndercoNicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 22/01/2026As some of you already know, I recently moved to Paris for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social @sciencespo.bsky.social. Here is a recent interview I did on my research agenda and background. www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/news...sciencespo.frAre nuclear issues at the heart of the Russia-Iran relationship?Interview with Nicole Grajewsi 1565
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 08/01/2026Today Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella is officially out. The book examines how nuclear sharing is contested across Europe, and why governments stick with these policies even when they’re deeply unpopular. www.cambridge.org/nl/universit...cambridge.orgEurope's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment 1116
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 03/12/2025Never had the pleasure of meeting David Malone, but we corresponded and he had an incredibly generous mind. May his soul rest in peace! 000
Reposted by Michal OndercoStephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 02/12/2025The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group. #OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....tandfonline.comGetting beyond nuclear deterrence: a research agendaFor eight decades, the practice of nuclear deterrence has been treated as common sense in many influential policy-making and scholarly circles. This remains the case although most states neither po... 034
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 02/12/2025Why do some EU members “care” more about the 🇮🇱-🇵🇸 conflict than others? Together with @valeriovignoli.bsky.social and @irena-kalhousova.bsky.social , we argue this is due to domestic polarization, demography and trade patterns. Read more in #openaccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...onlinelibrary.wiley.comWho Cares: Why the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict Matters (More) to Some EU Member StatesWhat drives the salience of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict amongst EU member states? This article employs domestic foreign policy theories to explain the factors underlying variation in salience, e... 071
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 26/11/2025🎉 Excited to share that “Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella” @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org will be out in physical form before Christmas. It tells the story of how Europeans contest nuclear weapons - and how policymakers react. Pairs perfectly with hot and cold beverages. ☕ www.cambridge.org/9781009698672cambridge.orgEurope's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment 241
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 21/11/2025Our paper with Ulrich Kühn @ifshhamburg.bsky.social on organizing nuclear policies in Europe has now an issue! Who are the architects, and who are the bricoleurs? Read in #openaccess at Intl Politics link.springer.com/article/10.1...link.springer.comOrganizing nuclear policies in Europe: of bricoleur plurality, architect absence, and spoiler disruption - International PoliticsA major question in organizing European security is how Europe should deal with nuclear weapons. Historically, extended nuclear deterrence and later multilateral nonproliferation and bilateral arms co... 020
Reposted by Michal OndercoChristopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 10/11/2025🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna! ⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025 wratil.eu/files/MULTIR... 1/4 🧵 17679
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 06/11/2025Peter Goosen, the titan of arms control, has passed. Peter was an amazing man, a proud South African who left his mark on chemical, biological and nuclear arms control. However, he will be most famously known for his role in the NPT’s indefinite extension in 1995. (1/n) 142
Reposted by Michal OndercoEuropean Security @europeansecurity.bsky.social · 03/11/2025New OA article: The European Union’s missing voice: member states’ forum shopping in military AI governance by Mahmoud Javadi, @profonderco.bsky.social & Sophie Vanhoonacker: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....tandfonline.comThe European Union’s missing voice: member states’ forum shopping in military AI governanceThis paper investigates why EU member states have largely opted for external forums, rather than the EU itself, to shape the emerging governance of military AI. While the EU’s limited competence in... 033
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 02/11/2025Together with Mahmoud Javadi and Sophie Vanhoonacker, we just published a piece in @europeansecurity.bsky.social on why EU is not more active in military AI regulation. Drawing on regime complexity scholarship, our answer is simple: EU doesn't offer what MSs want. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....tandfonline.comThe European Union’s missing voice: member states’ forum shopping in military AI governanceThis paper investigates why EU member states have largely opted for external forums, rather than the EU itself, to shape the emerging governance of military AI. While the EU’s limited competence in... 052
Reposted by Michal OndercoBen Coates @bencoates1.bsky.social · 29/10/2025I won’t tell you who to vote for. But don’t listen to those who rage about how the country has been ruined. It’s one of the most successful place in the world by almost every measure you can think. Is everything perfect? No! Could things improve? Yes! 212016
Reposted by Michal OndercoValentina Di Stasio @distasioval.bsky.social · 27/10/2025Postdoc opening. Background in IR/PolSci, quantitative skills. Great supervisors. 022
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 27/10/2025Come work with us! A new postdoc vacancy at @essb-erasmusuni010.bsky.social on willingness to fight. Join our small but active group. DL on 12 Nov. For more info, see www.eur.nl/en/working-a...eur.nlPost-doc Willingness to FightWant to gain a deeper understanding of what citizens think about the military, security and defence policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Please join! 031
Reposted by Michal OndercoMatt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 24/10/2025I wrote about the Polish refusal to extradite a Ukrainian suspect in the Nord Stream attack to Germany. A few things didn't make it in. First: the court said jurisdiction over attacks on a pipeline in international waters is hazy. Sounds weird, right? 1/8 www.economist.com/europe/2025/...economist.comPoland refuses to extradite a Nord Stream suspectRelations with Germany take a turn for the worse 1143
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 21/10/2025Time is running out to propose a SI to @jird-jour.bsky.social . We are a well-run, pluralist IR journal with broad mind and wide readership. Second to none for your SI. 021
Reposted by Michal OndercoSouth European Society & Politics @sespjournal.bsky.social · 20/10/2025💡 Valerio Vignoli & @fabrizio-coticchia.bsky.social FIND…💡 a curvilinear support for military aid across the left–right axis. Yet, FdI’s backing constitutes a deviation from this model. Read the article here 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 053
Reposted by Michal OndercoLotem Halevy @lotemhalevy.bsky.social · 16/10/2025Just uploaded a new version of my Job Market paper ahead of the USC HPE workshop. Comments, concerns, and inquiries welcome! I look forward to answering any questions about how this does or does not relate to "current events". papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 0157
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 14/10/2025In the coming days, you'll hear a lot about Steadfast Noon exercise. Until recently, even its name was secret. Want to know why?Pre-order my book coming out with @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org soon. The proofs are already in! www.cambridge.org/sk/universit...cambridge.orgEurope's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment 051
Reposted by Michal OndercoMatt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 11/10/2025Not commenting on this action, but if boycotts of Israel continue after it stops killing in Gaza, if they are not tied to a specific demand, the conclusion Israelis draw is “they hate us regardless and there is no point listening to them.” 277916
Reposted by Michal OndercoEuropean Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 07/10/2025🆕 Attitudes toward international organisations? 🌍 Exploring #Technocratic & #Populist attitudes, Reinout van der Veer & @profonderco.bsky.social use survey data across five European 🏤 countries to explain how people view IOs 📖 #OAbuff.lyRepresentation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge CoreRepresentation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations 074
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 26/09/2025So so so proud of my PhD student @franziskastaerk.bsky.social who just published her first dissertation-linked paper on key differences intergenerational injustice in nuclear disarmament and climate action. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...onlinelibrary.wiley.comFalse Twins: Intergenerational Injustice in Nuclear Deterrence and Climate InactionNuclear deterrence and climate inaction wrong future generations by imposing potential existential harm through climate-related disasters and nuclear winter. While increasingly explored in tandem, ke... 091
Reposted by Michal OndercoSteven Van de Walle @stevenvdwalle.bsky.social · 19/09/2025In een ander DG zit ik intussen bijna 2 jaar te wachten op de finale goedkeuring van een rapport (nota bene over de economische kosten van slecht werkende overheidsdiensten). 131
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 18/09/2025Good morning from Helsinki, where I am to attend a workshop at @fiia.fi and then the @helsinkisecurityforum.fi . If you want to catch a coffee, shoot me a message. 030
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 12/09/2025Congrats to @lydiawachs.bsky.social on this well-deserved award! It’s a great piece that will shape how we think about Russian nuclear doctrine for a long time! Very glad to have it in the SI edited jointly with @tobiasbunde.bsky.social 170
Reposted by Michal OndercoDr Clara PORTELA @drclaraportela.bsky.social · 09/09/2025Does #CFSP coordination foster foreign policy alignment among #EU member states? 🤔@valeriovignoli.bsky.social, @profonderco.bsky.social + yours truly revisit this question with fresh evidence from UNGA 🌐voting on #nuclearweapons in @cspjournal.bsky.social 👇 www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ZYNCQ...tandfonline.comDoes CFSP co-ordination foster convergence? Voting behavior on nuclear weapons at the UN General AssemblyAlthough the European Union (EU) has sought to promote the approximation of the foreign policy positions of member states since it established its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) with the... 041
Reposted by Michal OndercoRaffaele Mastrorocco @raffaelemstr.bsky.social · 03/09/2025Tomorrow (Thu 4 Sept, 11:00–12:45), I’ll be chairing with @albertomiraglia.bsky.social our panel 7.20 “Far-Right Emergence: Yet Another Challenge in the Midst of the Crisis of Multilateralism,” with exciting papers kindly discussed by @profonderco.bsky.social 111
Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 24/08/2025Weirdly enough, I had a similar experience this summer. 2/3 of the references were made up. I didn’t provide a substantive review, just flagged these references. The piece got rejected. Based on dinner conversations with colleagues, it’s becoming very common. 2398