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Michal Onderco

@profonderco.bsky.social
874 followers 651 following 90 posts

Professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam, affiliated with Charles University in Prague. VU Amsterdam, EUI, CISAC, WIAS-alum. Nuclear weapons | foreign policy | CEE

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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A realist discovers that economic statecraft matters and contemporary power has multiple dimensions
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
There is absolutely zero doubt that under @adreher.bsky.social ‘s tenure, RIO was the best managed journal in the field by quite some margin, publishing consistently great work. Tough but fair, with incredible response time. Thank you for your service!
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European Leadership Network (ELN) @theeln.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
AI-enabled warfare is giving the US unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, argues @profonderco.bsky.social. From Venezuela to Iran, lower-risk operations lower the bar for war, exposing allies to miscalculation. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
AI enables strategic stupidity. That should terrify Europe
AI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to st...
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Recent military operations in Venezuela and Iran show that the AI gives the US tactical excellence but enables strategic stupidity. What are the three reasons this should terrify Europe? Read in my new piece for @theeln.bsky.social -> europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/a...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
AI enables strategic stupidity. That should terrify Europe
AI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to st...
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Very excited to present my book at @managingtheatom.bsky.social next week!
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Thanks to @tomwetienne.bsky.social and an accident, we now know whether Oppenheimer changed how people think about nuclear weapons 👇. Now our in @ipsr-risp.bsky.social
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
goodauthority.org
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him?
Trump might start a war with Iran. Can anyone stop him? Congress, public opinion, and administration insiders aren’t reliable constraints on Trump’s foreign policy decisions.
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
If you have time to read only one thing on today’s strikes, make it @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social ‘s analysis in @thebulletin.org .
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
The "debate" in the run-up to this makes Iraq 2003 look like the Athenian polis.
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 26/02/2026
This week at a FIIA seminar, @profonderco.bsky.social, @pesumatti.bsky.social and Katja Creutz discussed the complexity of democratic foreign policy-making on nuclear security in the twenty-first century. Watch the recording ⤵️ fiia.fi/en/tapahtumat/europes-nuclear-umbrella
Matti Pesu, Katja Creutz and Michal Onderco on stage.
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
This was a great event, and i’m very thankful to Andrej Findor for organizing it!
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Mijn eerste keer op nederlandse live radio, en dan bij @ovt-vpro.bsky.social !
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Claudia Major @claudmajor.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
What nuclear options does Europe have with less US; or without? Our study is now published 👇 , a fantastic teamwork of the European Nuclear Study Group, co-chaired by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social James Davis & myself.
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
65.1🦋 Attitudes toward international organisations? 🌍 Exploring #Technocratic & #Populist attitudes, Reinout van der Veer & @profonderco.bsky.social use survey data across five European 🏤 countries to explain how people view #InternationalOrganisations
buff.ly
Representation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Representation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations - Volume 65 Issue 1
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Interesting attempt to summarize Europe's deterrence options/dilemmas on page 56 of the @munsecconf.bsky.social European deterrence report. securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Europe's Nuclear Deterrence Options table.
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Thanks to everyone for joining the launch of Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella yesterday in The Hague. Thanks especially to the discussants Michaele de Goeij, @lindedesma.bsky.social and Sico van der Meer.
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Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
A few words (in Slovak) about #NewSTART by @profonderco.bsky.social for @pravdask.bsky.social. spravy.pravda.sk/svet/clanok/...
spravy.pravda.sk
Priblížil sa svet k jadrovej vojne? Posledná atómová dohoda medzi USA a Ruskom vypršala
Systém dohôd obmedzujúcich počty a nasadenie jadrových zbraní medzi Spojenými štátmi a Ruskom sa rozpadol.
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 04/02/2026
Final update: The translator sent a very kind email to explain the context around all this. If even a single Iranian can draw strength from the book, I'm glad it was published in Farsi. It's an honour and I hope you will succeed
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Maaike @maaikeverbruggen.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Netherlands will be "constructive" towards the "strenghtening of a European nuclear deterrent" They will join the Treaty of Achen (Franco-German defence cooperation treaty) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aachen_...
We verdiepen de Europese defensiesamenwerking. We zetten in op gezamenlijke 
aanschaf in gebruikerspoules van strategische capaciteiten die voor individuele landen 
te kostbaar zijn. Nederland loopt voorop in het realiseren van een Europese pijler 
binnen de NAVO. Ook staan we constructief tegenover het versterken van een 
Europese nucleaire afschrikking. We treden toe tot het verdrag van Aken
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
As someone who sat on the Sartori Prize cmte last yr, I have to say that RISP consistently delivers clever high-quality papers with good data and relevant questions. Hard to find another “national” journal in Europe with such good quality. This paper fits the pattern.
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
As some of you already know, I recently moved to Paris for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social @sciencespo.bsky.social. Here is a recent interview I did on my research agenda and background. www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/news...
sciencespo.fr
Are nuclear issues at the heart of the Russia-Iran relationship?
Interview with Nicole Grajewsi
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Today Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella is officially out. The book examines how nuclear sharing is contested across Europe, and why governments stick with these policies even when they’re deeply unpopular. www.cambridge.org/nl/universit...
cambridge.org
Europe's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Never had the pleasure of meeting David Malone, but we corresponded and he had an incredibly generous mind. May his soul rest in peace!
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Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
The Nonproliferation Review published the first of 2 special issues from the Harvard–MacArthur Beyond Nuclear Deterrence Working Group. #OpenAccess intro by the 3 working group co-chairs & special issue editors, Hassan Elbahtimy, @professorrdg.bsky.social, & me: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Getting beyond nuclear deterrence: a research agenda
For eight decades, the practice of nuclear deterrence has been treated as common sense in many influential policy-making and scholarly circles. This remains the case although most states neither po...
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Why do some EU members “care” more about the 🇮🇱-🇵🇸 conflict than others? Together with @valeriovignoli.bsky.social and @irena-kalhousova.bsky.social , we argue this is due to domestic polarization, demography and trade patterns. Read more in #openaccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Who Cares: Why the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict Matters (More) to Some EU Member States
What drives the salience of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict amongst EU member states? This article employs domestic foreign policy theories to explain the factors underlying variation in salience, e...
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
🎉 Excited to share that “Europe’s Nuclear Umbrella” @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org will be out in physical form before Christmas. It tells the story of how Europeans contest nuclear weapons - and how policymakers react. Pairs perfectly with hot and cold beverages. ☕ www.cambridge.org/9781009698672
cambridge.org
Europe's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Our paper with Ulrich Kühn @ifshhamburg.bsky.social on organizing nuclear policies in Europe has now an issue! Who are the architects, and who are the bricoleurs? Read in #openaccess at Intl Politics link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Organizing nuclear policies in Europe: of bricoleur plurality, architect absence, and spoiler disruption - International Politics
A major question in organizing European security is how Europe should deal with nuclear weapons. Historically, extended nuclear deterrence and later multilateral nonproliferation and bilateral arms co...
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
DL on Wednesday!
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Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna! ⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025 wratil.eu/files/MULTIR... 1/4 🧵
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Peter Goosen, the titan of arms control, has passed. Peter was an amazing man, a proud South African who left his mark on chemical, biological and nuclear arms control. However, he will be most famously known for his role in the NPT’s indefinite extension in 1995. (1/n)
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European Security @europeansecurity.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
New OA article: The European Union’s missing voice: member states’ forum shopping in military AI governance by Mahmoud Javadi, @profonderco.bsky.social & Sophie Vanhoonacker: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The European Union’s missing voice: member states’ forum shopping in military AI governance
This paper investigates why EU member states have largely opted for external forums, rather than the EU itself, to shape the emerging governance of military AI. While the EU’s limited competence in...
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Together with Mahmoud Javadi and Sophie Vanhoonacker, we just published a piece in @europeansecurity.bsky.social on why EU is not more active in military AI regulation. Drawing on regime complexity scholarship, our answer is simple: EU doesn't offer what MSs want. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The European Union’s missing voice: member states’ forum shopping in military AI governance
This paper investigates why EU member states have largely opted for external forums, rather than the EU itself, to shape the emerging governance of military AI. While the EU’s limited competence in...
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Ben Coates @bencoates1.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
I won’t tell you who to vote for. But don’t listen to those who rage about how the country has been ruined. It’s one of the most successful place in the world by almost every measure you can think. Is everything perfect? No! Could things improve? Yes!
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Valentina Di Stasio @distasioval.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Postdoc opening. Background in IR/PolSci, quantitative skills. Great supervisors.
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Come work with us! A new postdoc vacancy at @essb-erasmusuni010.bsky.social on willingness to fight. Join our small but active group. DL on 12 Nov. For more info, see www.eur.nl/en/working-a...
eur.nl
Post-doc Willingness to Fight
Want to gain a deeper understanding of what citizens think about the military, security and defence policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Please join!
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Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
I wrote about the Polish refusal to extradite a Ukrainian suspect in the Nord Stream attack to Germany. A few things didn't make it in. First: the court said jurisdiction over attacks on a pipeline in international waters is hazy. Sounds weird, right? 1/8 www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
economist.com
Poland refuses to extradite a Nord Stream suspect
Relations with Germany take a turn for the worse
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Time is running out to propose a SI to @jird-jour.bsky.social . We are a well-run, pluralist IR journal with broad mind and wide readership. Second to none for your SI.
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South European Society & Politics @sespjournal.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
💡 Valerio Vignoli & @fabrizio-coticchia.bsky.social FIND…💡 a curvilinear support for military aid across the left–right axis. Yet, FdI’s backing constitutes a deviation from this model. Read the article here 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Lotem Halevy @lotemhalevy.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Just uploaded a new version of my Job Market paper ahead of the USC HPE workshop. Comments, concerns, and inquiries welcome! I look forward to answering any questions about how this does or does not relate to "current events". papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
In the coming days, you'll hear a lot about Steadfast Noon exercise. Until recently, even its name was secret. Want to know why?Pre-order my book coming out with @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org soon. The proofs are already in! www.cambridge.org/sk/universit...
cambridge.org
Europe's Nuclear Umbrella | Cambridge University Press & Assessment
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Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
Not commenting on this action, but if boycotts of Israel continue after it stops killing in Gaza, if they are not tied to a specific demand, the conclusion Israelis draw is “they hate us regardless and there is no point listening to them.”
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
🆕 Attitudes toward international organisations? 🌍 Exploring #Technocratic & #Populist attitudes, Reinout van der Veer & @profonderco.bsky.social use survey data across five European 🏤 countries to explain how people view IOs 📖 #OA
buff.ly
Representation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Representation matters: Technocracy, populism, and attitudes towards international organisations
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
So so so proud of my PhD student @franziskastaerk.bsky.social who just published her first dissertation-linked paper on key differences intergenerational injustice in nuclear disarmament and climate action. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
False Twins: Intergenerational Injustice in Nuclear Deterrence and Climate Inaction
Nuclear deterrence and climate inaction wrong future generations by imposing potential existential harm through climate-related disasters and nuclear winter. While increasingly explored in tandem, ke...
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Steven Van de Walle @stevenvdwalle.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
In een ander DG zit ik intussen bijna 2 jaar te wachten op de finale goedkeuring van een rapport (nota bene over de economische kosten van slecht werkende overheidsdiensten).
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Good morning from Helsinki, where I am to attend a workshop at @fiia.fi and then the @helsinkisecurityforum.fi . If you want to catch a coffee, shoot me a message.
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Congrats to @lydiawachs.bsky.social on this well-deserved award! It’s a great piece that will shape how we think about Russian nuclear doctrine for a long time! Very glad to have it in the SI edited jointly with @tobiasbunde.bsky.social
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Dr Clara PORTELA @drclaraportela.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Does #CFSP coordination foster foreign policy alignment among #EU member states? 🤔@valeriovignoli.bsky.social, @profonderco.bsky.social + yours truly revisit this question with fresh evidence from UNGA 🌐voting on #nuclearweapons in @cspjournal.bsky.social 👇 www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ZYNCQ...
tandfonline.com
Does CFSP co-ordination foster convergence? Voting behavior on nuclear weapons at the UN General Assembly
Although the European Union (EU) has sought to promote the approximation of the foreign policy positions of member states since it established its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) with the...
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Raffaele Mastrorocco @raffaelemstr.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Tomorrow (Thu 4 Sept, 11:00–12:45), I’ll be chairing with @albertomiraglia.bsky.social our panel 7.20 “Far-Right Emergence: Yet Another Challenge in the Midst of the Crisis of Multilateralism,” with exciting papers kindly discussed by @profonderco.bsky.social
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Wow, this looks super cool!
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Michal Onderco @profonderco.bsky.social · 24/08/2025
Weirdly enough, I had a similar experience this summer. 2/3 of the references were made up. I didn’t provide a substantive review, just flagged these references. The piece got rejected. Based on dinner conversations with colleagues, it’s becoming very common.
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