Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 18/09/2025Signaling solidarity is not the same as issuing a blank check of military intervention. Islamabad is not offering Riyadh a covert “nuclear button,” and Riyadh is not signing up to fight in Kashmir. Defense cooperation ≠ automatic war pledge, and signaling ≠ nuclear guarantee. 020
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarProject on Managing the Atom @managingtheatom.bsky.social · 17/09/2025@rabsaa.bsky.social has released her edited volume, "Strategic Reckoning: Perspectives on Deterrence and Escalation Post-Pahalgam", offering timely insights into the dynamics of deterrence, crisis management, and regional security in South Asia. www.belfercenter.org/research-ana... 011
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 14/08/2025Beyond Nukes. Pakistan’s Army Rocket Force Command aims to hit hard without crossing the nuclear line, cleaner command, better targeting, and a faster kill chain to stress Indian IADS. Why this matters & what to watch next! Here's my initial assessment of ARFC. pakistanpolitico.com/arfc/pakistanpolitico.comPakistan’s Army Rocket Force CommandRabia Akhtar (Note: This piece offers a preliminary read of the ARFC announcement and its implications, pending further 020
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 26/07/2025Beyond the Brink: Game Theory and the Future of Indo-Pak Security in the Age of Stealth open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comBeyond the Brink: Game Theory and the Future of Indo-Pak Security in the Age of StealthApplying game theory to understand the precarious balance of power in South Asia’s emerging stealth competition. 040
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 26/07/2025Third Nuclear Age is already here. May 2025 showed how non-nuclear tech, politics, and misperception can unravel deterrence. @nktpnd.bsky.social breaks it down with Ejaz Haider. youtu.be/il_GY3h34Ec?...youtu.beInFocus With Ejaz Haider EP71: Deterrence in the New Nuclear AgeYouTube video by CSSPR 000
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 23/07/2025From Escalation to Explanation: The Fight for the Last Word substack.com/profile/3030...substack.comRabia Akhtar (@rabiaakhtar1)From Escalation to Explanation: The Fight for the Last Word https://open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/p/who-owns-the-story-the-real-battle?r=i1g3g&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=fals... 000
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025We are not just witnessing a decline in the humanities, we are watching a civilizational shift toward control, fragmentation, and forgetting. What happens when a society stops teaching meaning? McGilchrist offers a warning we can’t ignore. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comThe Collapse of Attention: Losing the Right MindMapping the Fall of the Reflective Mind 000
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025The world does not need more deterrence posturing. It needs strategic humility. In this piece for @belfercenter.bsky.social, I reflect on the Nobel Laureate Declaration and its urgent call to recalibrate how we think about nuclear risk. www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...belfercenter.orgRemember Your Humanity: Why the Nobel Laureate Declaration Is a Call for Strategic RecalibrationMarking the 80th anniversary of the Trinity test, Nobel Peace Laureates and experts issued a powerful declaration urging urgent global action to reduce nuclear risks amid rising geopolitical instabili... 011
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025Pakistan’s resistance to the FMCT is not a diplomatic anomaly. It is a calculated stance shaped by asymmetry, strategic parity concerns, and treaty design flaws. I unpack the strategic logic behind Pakistan’s position. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comIn Search of Equity: Understanding Pakistan’s Conditions for the FMCTStrategic Fracture in the Global Nuclear Order: Why the FMCT Fails to Convince Pakistan 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025Just launched: Elusive Stability by @alizia1992.bsky.social. If you care about where South Asian nuclear and strategic debates are headed, this Substack will shape how we think about tomorrow’s crises today. 021
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarSyed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 20/07/2025I am happy to launch my Substack, Elusive Stability. Subscribe, engage, and take the debate forward. open.substack.com/pub/alizia1992… 021
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 20/07/2025Actually after trying to do a very simple operation to merge data from two GeoTIFF files I now understand why Oppenheimer is involved with this. It is a cautionary tale...!!! 4273
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025“We are eternal vibrations, not accidents of matter.” Tesla’s message transcends time. A call to awaken, resonate, and return to the source. Love is the highest frequency. A reminder that the universe may be less mechanical and far more conscious than we imagine. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comTesla, Vibration, and the Echo of the UniverseWhat if consciousness did not emerge from us, but flowed through us? 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 20/07/2025India’s new Agni-V "bunker-buster" is no ordinary missile. It's a conventional warhead meant to strike deeply buried nuclear sites. But the strategy behind it is deeply flawed. My new piece in Dawn explains why. www.dawn.com/news/1925251...dawn.comTHE PROBLEM WITH INDIA’S NEW MISSILE GAMBITIndia’s reported pursuit of a missile able to carry a ‘bunker-buster’ like the US’ Massive Ordnance Penetrator presents a perilous 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 17/07/2025“Remember your humanity, and forget the rest.” Guided by these words, we signed the Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration in Chicago to stop the drift toward nuclear war. Clear steps. Shared responsibility. Urgent action. thebulletin.org/2025/07/the-...thebulletin.orgThe Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear WarTremendous progress has been made in reducing global nuclear stockpiles and nuclear risks, but we are now heading in the wrong direction. Poised at the beginning of a new, complex, and dangerous nucle... 041
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarThe Debate - France 24 @f24debate.france24.com · 14/07/2025🗨️"Pleasing #Trump isn’t #Putin's priority. Putin has no reason to stop." 👉 @belfercenter.bsky.social‘s @mbudjeryn.bsky.social ➡️Full show: f24.my/BJVm.x @en.france24.com #Trump #Ukraine 064
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarProject on Managing the Atom @managingtheatom.bsky.social · 15/07/2025In an article published in Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Tabaar argues "Israel’s June 13 assault on Iran, designed to decapitate Tehran’s military and nuclear program, is one of the worst setbacks the Islamic Republic has ever experienced." www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/islam...foreignaffairs.comThe Islamic Republic’s New Lease on LifeHow the U.S.-Israeli strikes empowered the Iranian regime. 031
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 12/07/2025Rethinking Strategic Depth in the Age of AI: Lessons from May 2025 open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comRethinking Strategic Depth in the Age of AI: Lessons from May 2025In the aftermath of the May 2025 Indo-Pakistan crisis, a 4-day high-intensity, multidomain conflict, the traditional notion of strategic depth demands rethinking. 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 11/07/2025Is India rewriting the logic of nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Yes and it is doing so openly, deliberately, and dangerously. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/... 010
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarHans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 11/07/2025Disappointed to see this from Chatham House: removing source data from chart, referencing secondary sources, using outdated nuke data when updated is available, misrepresenting “nuclear arsenal” data. 🤷🏼♂️ Her is link to primary data source: fas.org/initiative/s... 2294
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 11/07/2025The new e-book on Operation Sindoor is not just a post-crisis account, it is India’s blueprint for normalising pre-emptive force against Pakistan. My latest analysis examines why this strategic shift should alarm anyone concerned with nuclear stability in South Asia open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comIndia’s Strategic Revisionism: How India Is Legitimising Pre-emptive ForceReading 'Operation Sindoor' as India’s Most Dangerous Shift in Strategic Thinking Yet 000
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 10/07/2025What if Huntington’s clash never truly happened and Fukuyama’s end never arrived? 25 years later, we revisit the thinkers who tried to define the world. Some got it right. Most missed the tremors. Check out my mew post on rereading globalization in 2025. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comHuntington, Fukuyama, and the Futures They Couldn't SeeThere are books that predict the future. 020
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 08/07/2025Embed EDTs into Crisis Simulations open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/... 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 08/07/2025In a post-May 2025 world, deterrence stability depends not only on nuclear doctrines but also on how EDT usage is framed, signaled, and constrained. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/... 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 08/07/2025From the 4-day Indo-Pak clash to the Iran-Israel war and Ukraine, emerging tech is the architecture. Algorithmic Fractures: How Emerging Tech Rewires Strategic Stability open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comAlgorithmic Fractures: How Emerging Tech Rewires Strategic StabilityLessons from the 4-Day Indo-Pak May 2025 Crisis, the 12-Day Iran-Israel War and the Russia-Ukraine War 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 07/07/2025In a world of shifting alliances and sharpened rivalries, Pakistan stays the course, balancing great powers by playing the space in between! 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 07/07/2025From Cold War calculus to Trump 2.0, Pakistan has sustained relations with competing powers by leveraging relevance. Here’s my latest substack on Pakistan’s quiet masterclass in geopolitical calibration. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comEchoes of Alignment: Ceasefires, Crisis Diplomacy, and the Weight of Old ChoicesIn May 2025, after 87 tense hours of high-intensity conflict, it was the United States once again stepping in to broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. 020
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarSyed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 06/07/2025In the next episode of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) Webinar Series, I look forward to hosting Ludovica Castelli , PhD for a conversation on her excellent co-authored book, "The Global Third Nuclear Age. The book can be read here: lnkd.in/g-gdG25P 121
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 06/07/2025Just played Metro Exodus with my son on his birthday and it hit closer to home than I expected. A post-nuclear Russia, survival choices, moral costs. Sometimes, the most powerful lessons on deterrence come not from policy papers, but from pixels. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comMy Son, His Game, and Our Shared Glimpse into the Nuclear AbyssThis weekend, as I celebrated my son’s 21st birthday with him, he introduced me to a game he is recently been absorbed in: Metro Exodus. Now, I’ll be honest, when he first launched it, I was expecting... 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 05/07/2025Beyond warheads and doctrines lies something deeper: mindset. 🇮🇳 vs 🇵🇰 Two arsenals. Two histories. Two strategic cultures. In my latest post, I break down what really separates Indian and Pakistani thinking on war, peace, and deterrence. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comBeyond the Bomb: What Really Separates Indian and Pakistani Strategic ThinkingWhy Strategic Culture Still Matters 031
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 05/07/2025This post isn’t about comparisons or criticism. It’s about a collective sense of loss. Because the India that once embraced its diversity helped stabilize South Asia. Here are my reflections: We miss that India too, Naseeruddin Shah! open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comWe miss that India too, Naseeruddin Shah!Naseeruddin Shah’s poignant reflection on the India he grew up in, a place of pluralism, coexistence, and quiet patriotism, resonates far beyond its borders. 020
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 04/07/2025I have tried unpacking Pakistan’s Deterrence Ladder, a concept missing from most strategic debates. For Pakistan, it is not about escalation. It is about calibrated signaling especially relevant in the post-May 2025 reality. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comThe Missing Half of the Story: Deterrence Ladders and not just Escalation LaddersIf you are interested in issues of war, peace, nukes and strategy then you must have read most analysis focusing on the escalation ladder, the idea, originally from Herman Kahn of a multi-step progres... 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 04/07/2025A nuclear Iran would redraw the deterrence map of West Asia and not in Pakistan’s favor. Even as we respect Tehran’s threat perceptions, we must ask: at what cost comes nuclear parity? open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comWhy a Nuclear-Armed Iran Is Not in Pakistan’s Interest & Why the Debate Needs NuanceThe question of a nuclear-armed Iran is no longer hypothetical, we all know it. 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 04/07/2025My summer read just arrived! What if the particle and the prayer are part of the same equation? As I prepare to leave the US and return back home to Lahore, Capra’s 'The Tao of Physics' becomes my companion and compass, asking the questions I must carry into the next chapter of my becoming. 020
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 03/07/2025In a world where perception shapes escalation, it’s time to bring crisis gaming into the public eye. Crisis Gaming in the Public Eye: Deterrence for a World That Watches open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comCrisis Gaming in the Public Eye: Deterrence for a World That WatchesWe often assume that deterrence is a backchannel conversation, quiet messages passed between military planners, intelligence chiefs, and strategic elites. 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 03/07/2025We borrowed Cold War logic. Adopted Western escalation ladders. Internalized someone else's fears. But what if South Asia needs its own deterrence grammar? It’s time to #DecolonizeDeterrence open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comDecolonizing Deterrence in South AsiaFor too long, South Asia has lived under a deterrence framework not entirely its own. 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 03/07/2025From jamming Rafales to owning the battlespace, here’s how Pakistan rewrote the airpower playbook. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...open.substack.comJammed, Blinded, Grounded: The IAF Collapse in May 2025Key points made by Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman (Retd), former Chief of Air Staff, Pakistan Air Force (PAF), during a post-conflict discussion on the India-Pakistan war fought between May 7 and May 1... 010
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 01/07/2025My review is out of this great book by Andrew Futter, Ludovica Castelli, Cameron Hunter, Dr. Olamide Samuel, Francesco Silvestri, and Benjamin Zala. It is an ambitious and necessary contribution to rethinking how we study nuclear politics in the 21st century. academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...academic.oup.comThe global third nuclear age: clashing visions for a new era in international politicsEver since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, scholars have extensively analysed its effects on the global nuclear order. Some contend that this order 010
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarAnjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 27/06/2025Holding Francis Fukuyama personally responsible for not ending history when he had the opportunity 35914
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 26/06/2025My response in The Friday Times to the @foreignaffairs.com article by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi. The claim that Pakistan seeks ICBMs to target the U.S. is strategically detached from Pakistan’s doctrinal realities. Rebuttal: Pakistan In The New Nuclear Age thefridaytimes.com/26-Jun-2025/...thefridaytimes.comRebuttal: Pakistan In The New Nuclear AgePakistan’s nuclear program is India-focused; claims it seeks ICBMs to target the U.S. are speculative and ignore its regional deterrence posture 021
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarForeign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 25/06/2025Read Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi on the risks posed by the new nuclear age—and how the United States can manage the multiplying threats from China, North Korea, and Russia:fam.agHow to Survive the New Nuclear AgeNational security in a world of proliferating risks and eroding constraints. 0115
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 13/06/2025The June 13 Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military leadership mark a watershed in regional deterrence dynamics. By targeting nuclear infrastructure and eliminating key IRGC and scientific figures, Israel has exposed the limits of nuclear latency as a shield. 111
Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 13/06/2025@thewire.in The May 2025 crisis shows that nuclear deterrence in SA is not brittle, it is evolving. As Kahn’s escalation ladder flattens into simultaneity across conventional, cyber, and info domains, we've seen that restraint stems from strategic clarity, not passivity. thewire.in/security/sou...thewire.inFast Wars, Steady Thresholds: Why South Asia’s Nuclear Restraint Persists in a Compressed BattlespaceApplying Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder to the May 2025 events between India and Pakistan demonstrates that the conflict largely occupied the middle rungs. But the question remains: is the threshold ... 011
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarSyed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 13/06/2025This is an excellent piece by @rabsaa.bsky.social for TheWire.in ,explaining how nuclear weapons continue to play a stabilizing role in South Asia. She rightly argues that the next crisis will start from a higher baseline. Worth your while. thewire.in/security/sou...thewire.inFast Wars, Steady Thresholds: Why South Asia’s Nuclear Restraint Persists in a Compressed BattlespaceApplying Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder to the May 2025 events between India and Pakistan demonstrates that the conflict largely occupied the middle rungs. But the question remains: is the threshold ... 011
Reposted by Rabia AkhtarMatthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · 12/06/2025Another option that Israel has demonstrated in Syria is to deliver troops by air to go in and destroy an underground facility. Would be a very dangerous mission, of course. www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/w...nytimes.comHow Israeli Forces Destroyed a Secret Weapons Facility in Syria 272