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Rabia Akhtar

@rabsaa.bsky.social
384 followers 161 following 163 posts

Visiting Scholar, MTA, Belfer Center, HKS | Dean Social Sciences, University of Lahore, Director CSSPR csspr.uol.edu.pk PhD Security Studies, KSU | Author, The Blind Eye: US Nonprolif Policy towards 🇵🇰 Free e-book: csspr.uol.edu.pk/f2c

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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Signaling solidarity is not the same as issuing a blank check of military intervention. Islamabad is not offering Riyadh a covert “nuclear button,” and Riyadh is not signing up to fight in Kashmir. Defense cooperation ≠ automatic war pledge, and signaling ≠ nuclear guarantee.
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Project on Managing the Atom @managingtheatom.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
@rabsaa.bsky.social has released her edited volume, "Strategic Reckoning: Perspectives on Deterrence and Escalation Post-Pahalgam", offering timely insights into the dynamics of deterrence, crisis management, and regional security in South Asia. www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Beyond Nukes. Pakistan’s Army Rocket Force Command aims to hit hard without crossing the nuclear line, cleaner command, better targeting, and a faster kill chain to stress Indian IADS. Why this matters & what to watch next! Here's my initial assessment of ARFC. pakistanpolitico.com/arfc/
pakistanpolitico.com
Pakistan’s Army Rocket Force Command
Rabia Akhtar (Note: This piece offers a preliminary read of the ARFC announcement and its implications, pending further
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 10/08/2025
Like seriously! Who’s with me?
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Beyond the Brink: Game Theory and the Future of Indo-Pak Security in the Age of Stealth open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Beyond the Brink: Game Theory and the Future of Indo-Pak Security in the Age of Stealth
Applying game theory to understand the precarious balance of power in South Asia’s emerging stealth competition.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
Third Nuclear Age is already here. May 2025 showed how non-nuclear tech, politics, and misperception can unravel deterrence. @nktpnd.bsky.social breaks it down with Ejaz Haider. youtu.be/il_GY3h34Ec?...
youtu.be
InFocus With Ejaz Haider EP71: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age
YouTube video by CSSPR
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
To all my PhD students!
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
From Escalation to Explanation: The Fight for the Last Word substack.com/profile/3030...
substack.com
Rabia Akhtar (@rabiaakhtar1)
From Escalation to Explanation: The Fight for the Last Word https://open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/p/who-owns-the-story-the-real-battle?r=i1g3g&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=fals...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
We are not just witnessing a decline in the humanities, we are watching a civilizational shift toward control, fragmentation, and forgetting. What happens when a society stops teaching meaning? McGilchrist offers a warning we can’t ignore. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
The Collapse of Attention: Losing the Right Mind
Mapping the Fall of the Reflective Mind
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
The world does not need more deterrence posturing. It needs strategic humility. In this piece for @belfercenter.bsky.social, I reflect on the Nobel Laureate Declaration and its urgent call to recalibrate how we think about nuclear risk. www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
belfercenter.org
Remember Your Humanity: Why the Nobel Laureate Declaration Is a Call for Strategic Recalibration
Marking the 80th anniversary of the Trinity test, Nobel Peace Laureates and experts issued a powerful declaration urging urgent global action to reduce nuclear risks amid rising geopolitical instabili...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
Pakistan’s resistance to the FMCT is not a diplomatic anomaly. It is a calculated stance shaped by asymmetry, strategic parity concerns, and treaty design flaws. I unpack the strategic logic behind Pakistan’s position. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
In Search of Equity: Understanding Pakistan’s Conditions for the FMCT
Strategic Fracture in the Global Nuclear Order: Why the FMCT Fails to Convince Pakistan
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
Just launched: Elusive Stability by @alizia1992.bsky.social. If you care about where South Asian nuclear and strategic debates are headed, this Substack will shape how we think about tomorrow’s crises today.
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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
I am happy to launch my Substack, Elusive Stability. Subscribe, engage, and take the debate forward. open.substack.com/pub/alizia1992…
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Actually after trying to do a very simple operation to merge data from two GeoTIFF files I now understand why Oppenheimer is involved with this. It is a cautionary tale...!!!
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
“We are eternal vibrations, not accidents of matter.” Tesla’s message transcends time. A call to awaken, resonate, and return to the source. Love is the highest frequency. A reminder that the universe may be less mechanical and far more conscious than we imagine. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Tesla, Vibration, and the Echo of the Universe
What if consciousness did not emerge from us, but flowed through us?
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
India’s new Agni-V "bunker-buster" is no ordinary missile. It's a conventional warhead meant to strike deeply buried nuclear sites. But the strategy behind it is deeply flawed. My new piece in Dawn explains why. www.dawn.com/news/1925251...
dawn.com
THE PROBLEM WITH INDIA’S NEW MISSILE GAMBIT
India’s reported pursuit of a missile able to carry a ‘bunker-buster’ like the US’ Massive Ordnance Penetrator presents a perilous
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
“Remember your humanity, and forget the rest.” Guided by these words, we signed the Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration in Chicago to stop the drift toward nuclear war. Clear steps. Shared responsibility. Urgent action. thebulletin.org/2025/07/the-...
thebulletin.org
The Nobel Laureate Assembly Declaration for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Tremendous progress has been made in reducing global nuclear stockpiles and nuclear risks, but we are now heading in the wrong direction. Poised at the beginning of a new, complex, and dangerous nucle...
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The Debate - France 24 @f24debate.france24.com · 14/07/2025
🗨️"Pleasing #Trump isn’t #Putin's priority. Putin has no reason to stop." 👉 @belfercenter.bsky.social‘s @mbudjeryn.bsky.social ‬ ➡️Full show: f24.my/BJVm.x @en.france24.com #Trump #Ukraine
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Project on Managing the Atom @managingtheatom.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
In an article published in Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Tabaar argues "Israel’s June 13 assault on Iran, designed to decapitate Tehran’s military and nuclear program, is one of the worst setbacks the Islamic Republic has ever experienced." www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/islam...
foreignaffairs.com
The Islamic Republic’s New Lease on Life
How the U.S.-Israeli strikes empowered the Iranian regime.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
Rethinking Strategic Depth in the Age of AI: Lessons from May 2025 open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Rethinking Strategic Depth in the Age of AI: Lessons from May 2025
In the aftermath of the May 2025 Indo-Pakistan crisis, a 4-day high-intensity, multidomain conflict, the traditional notion of strategic depth demands rethinking.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Is India rewriting the logic of nuclear deterrence in South Asia? Yes and it is doing so openly, deliberately, and dangerously. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
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Hans Kristensen @nukestrat.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Disappointed to see this from Chatham House: removing source data from chart, referencing secondary sources, using outdated nuke data when updated is available, misrepresenting “nuclear arsenal” data. 🤷🏼‍♂️ Her is link to primary data source: fas.org/initiative/s...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
The new e-book on Operation Sindoor is not just a post-crisis account, it is India’s blueprint for normalising pre-emptive force against Pakistan. My latest analysis examines why this strategic shift should alarm anyone concerned with nuclear stability in South Asia open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
India’s Strategic Revisionism: How India Is Legitimising Pre-emptive Force
Reading 'Operation Sindoor' as India’s Most Dangerous Shift in Strategic Thinking Yet
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
What if Huntington’s clash never truly happened and Fukuyama’s end never arrived? 25 years later, we revisit the thinkers who tried to define the world. Some got it right. Most missed the tremors. Check out my mew post on rereading globalization in 2025. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Huntington, Fukuyama, and the Futures They Couldn't See
There are books that predict the future.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Embed EDTs into Crisis Simulations open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
In a post-May 2025 world, deterrence stability depends not only on nuclear doctrines but also on how EDT usage is framed, signaled, and constrained. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
From the 4-day Indo-Pak clash to the Iran-Israel war and Ukraine, emerging tech is the architecture. Algorithmic Fractures: How Emerging Tech Rewires Strategic Stability open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Algorithmic Fractures: How Emerging Tech Rewires Strategic Stability
Lessons from the 4-Day Indo-Pak May 2025 Crisis, the 12-Day Iran-Israel War and the Russia-Ukraine War
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
In a world of shifting alliances and sharpened rivalries, Pakistan stays the course, balancing great powers by playing the space in between!
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
From Cold War calculus to Trump 2.0, Pakistan has sustained relations with competing powers by leveraging relevance. Here’s my latest substack on Pakistan’s quiet masterclass in geopolitical calibration. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Echoes of Alignment: Ceasefires, Crisis Diplomacy, and the Weight of Old Choices
In May 2025, after 87 tense hours of high-intensity conflict, it was the United States once again stepping in to broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan.
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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
In the next episode of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) Webinar Series, I look forward to hosting Ludovica Castelli , PhD for a conversation on her excellent co-authored book, "The Global Third Nuclear Age. The book can be read here: lnkd.in/g-gdG25P
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
Just played Metro Exodus with my son on his birthday and it hit closer to home than I expected. A post-nuclear Russia, survival choices, moral costs. Sometimes, the most powerful lessons on deterrence come not from policy papers, but from pixels. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
My Son, His Game, and Our Shared Glimpse into the Nuclear Abyss
This weekend, as I celebrated my son’s 21st birthday with him, he introduced me to a game he is recently been absorbed in: Metro Exodus. Now, I’ll be honest, when he first launched it, I was expecting...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Beyond warheads and doctrines lies something deeper: mindset. 🇮🇳 vs 🇵🇰 Two arsenals. Two histories. Two strategic cultures. In my latest post, I break down what really separates Indian and Pakistani thinking on war, peace, and deterrence. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Beyond the Bomb: What Really Separates Indian and Pakistani Strategic Thinking
Why Strategic Culture Still Matters
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
This post isn’t about comparisons or criticism. It’s about a collective sense of loss. Because the India that once embraced its diversity helped stabilize South Asia. Here are my reflections: We miss that India too, Naseeruddin Shah! open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
We miss that India too, Naseeruddin Shah!
Naseeruddin Shah’s poignant reflection on the India he grew up in, a place of pluralism, coexistence, and quiet patriotism, resonates far beyond its borders.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
I have tried unpacking Pakistan’s Deterrence Ladder, a concept missing from most strategic debates. For Pakistan, it is not about escalation. It is about calibrated signaling especially relevant in the post-May 2025 reality. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
The Missing Half of the Story: Deterrence Ladders and not just Escalation Ladders
If you are interested in issues of war, peace, nukes and strategy then you must have read most analysis focusing on the escalation ladder, the idea, originally from Herman Kahn of a multi-step progres...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
A nuclear Iran would redraw the deterrence map of West Asia and not in Pakistan’s favor. Even as we respect Tehran’s threat perceptions, we must ask: at what cost comes nuclear parity? open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Why a Nuclear-Armed Iran Is Not in Pakistan’s Interest & Why the Debate Needs Nuance
The question of a nuclear-armed Iran is no longer hypothetical, we all know it.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
My summer read just arrived! What if the particle and the prayer are part of the same equation? As I prepare to leave the US and return back home to Lahore, Capra’s 'The Tao of Physics' becomes my companion and compass, asking the questions I must carry into the next chapter of my becoming.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
In a world where perception shapes escalation, it’s time to bring crisis gaming into the public eye. Crisis Gaming in the Public Eye: Deterrence for a World That Watches open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Crisis Gaming in the Public Eye: Deterrence for a World That Watches
We often assume that deterrence is a backchannel conversation, quiet messages passed between military planners, intelligence chiefs, and strategic elites.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
We borrowed Cold War logic. Adopted Western escalation ladders. Internalized someone else's fears. But what if South Asia needs its own deterrence grammar? It’s time to #DecolonizeDeterrence open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Decolonizing Deterrence in South Asia
For too long, South Asia has lived under a deterrence framework not entirely its own.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
From jamming Rafales to owning the battlespace, here’s how Pakistan rewrote the airpower playbook. open.substack.com/pub/rakhtar/...
open.substack.com
Jammed, Blinded, Grounded: The IAF Collapse in May 2025
Key points made by Air Chief Marshal Sohail Aman (Retd), former Chief of Air Staff, Pakistan Air Force (PAF), during a post-conflict discussion on the India-Pakistan war fought between May 7 and May 1...
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
My review is out of this great book by Andrew Futter, Ludovica Castelli, Cameron Hunter, Dr. Olamide Samuel, Francesco Silvestri, and Benjamin Zala. It is an ambitious and necessary contribution to rethinking how we study nuclear politics in the 21st century. academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...
academic.oup.com
The global third nuclear age: clashing visions for a new era in international politics
Ever since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war, scholars have extensively analysed its effects on the global nuclear order. Some contend that this order
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Anjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Holding Francis Fukuyama personally responsible for not ending history when he had the opportunity
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
My response in The Friday Times to the @foreignaffairs.com article by Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi. The claim that Pakistan seeks ICBMs to target the U.S. is strategically detached from Pakistan’s doctrinal realities. Rebuttal: Pakistan In The New Nuclear Age thefridaytimes.com/26-Jun-2025/...
thefridaytimes.com
Rebuttal: Pakistan In The New Nuclear Age
Pakistan’s nuclear program is India-focused; claims it seeks ICBMs to target the U.S. are speculative and ignore its regional deterrence posture
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 25/06/2025
Read Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi on the risks posed by the new nuclear age—and how the United States can manage the multiplying threats from China, North Korea, and Russia:
fam.ag
How to Survive the New Nuclear Age
National security in a world of proliferating risks and eroding constraints.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
Still the sharpest warning for our age of denial.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
The June 13 Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military leadership mark a watershed in regional deterrence dynamics. By targeting nuclear infrastructure and eliminating key IRGC and scientific figures, Israel has exposed the limits of nuclear latency as a shield.
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Rabia Akhtar @rabsaa.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
@thewire.in The May 2025 crisis shows that nuclear deterrence in SA is not brittle, it is evolving. As Kahn’s escalation ladder flattens into simultaneity across conventional, cyber, and info domains, we've seen that restraint stems from strategic clarity, not passivity. thewire.in/security/sou...
thewire.in
Fast Wars, Steady Thresholds: Why South Asia’s Nuclear Restraint Persists in a Compressed Battlespace
Applying Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder to the May 2025 events between India and Pakistan demonstrates that the conflict largely occupied the middle rungs. But the question remains: is the threshold ...
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Syed Ali Zia Jaffery @alizia1992.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
This is an excellent piece by @rabsaa.bsky.social for TheWire.in ,explaining how nuclear weapons continue to play a stabilizing role in South Asia. She rightly argues that the next crisis will start from a higher baseline. Worth your while. thewire.in/security/sou...
thewire.in
Fast Wars, Steady Thresholds: Why South Asia’s Nuclear Restraint Persists in a Compressed Battlespace
Applying Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder to the May 2025 events between India and Pakistan demonstrates that the conflict largely occupied the middle rungs. But the question remains: is the threshold ...
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Matthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Another option that Israel has demonstrated in Syria is to deliver troops by air to go in and destroy an underground facility. Would be a very dangerous mission, of course. www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/w...
nytimes.com
How Israeli Forces Destroyed a Secret Weapons Facility in Syria
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