Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Looking forward to speaking at the Hili Forum tomorrow 000
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Russian President Putin commented for the first time on the Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian industry and infrastructure, saying that “such attacks have no critical consequences; they have not had any, and they cannot have any. But, of course, they do cause us harm” 132
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 18/08/2026I didn’t know Tucker Carlson was anti-nukes: “Nuclear weapons are demonic, there’s no upside to them at all, & anyone who claims otherwise is either ignorant or doing the bidding of the forces that created nuclear technology, which were not human forces obviously” www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...theguardian.comTucker Carlson credits demons for the invention of nuclear technologyEx-Fox News host makes bizarre claim on Steve Bannon’s podcast, days after saying a demon attacked him in his sleep 110
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 24/07/2026It was an honor and a pleasure to take part in the Global Nobel Laureates Assembly on Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear War hosted by the @vaticannews.bsky.social It also helped me think through some of the AI-nuclear connections I've been reflecting on for quite some time 1/3 130
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 11/07/2026Missed this: In June, Russia designated several Harvard entities, including the Harvard Kennedy School and the Belfer Center, as "undesirable organizations," making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with them 120
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 09/07/2026So China again sent notifications ahead of its SLBM launch and even sent them to more regional countries than in 2024, including Japan and Papua New Guinea. But while it received quite a bit of recognition for doing so in 2024, that doesn't seem to be the case this time around? 101
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 06/07/2026When you went out to listen to some jazz in the park but you are in Switzerland 000
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 26/06/2026Carnegie Endowment is hiring carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/4129694?carnegieendowment.applicantpro.comProgram Assistant, Nuclear Policy Program - Washington, DCProgram Assistant Nuclear Policy Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a unique global network of policy research centers, is seeking a program assistant to work with scholars in our... 065
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 10/06/2026That's how you break the deadlock at the Conference on Disarmament 171
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 05/06/2026I'm old enough to remember when cyber was the next big thing, the cyber-nuclear nexus was the hottest issue in town, and cyber capabilities were the deus ex machina of every wargame... www.vox.com/technology/4...vox.comHow AI could make wars go nuclearWe had a plan to prevent World War III. AI could break it. 020
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 05/06/2026Tired: IAEA for AI Wired: INF Special Verification Commission for AI 010
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 05/06/2026I did not have Anthropic citing Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty as an example for AI regulation on my bingo card 250
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 28/05/2026Does anyone here have a WOTR subscription? 🙂 000
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 23/05/2026I recounted this to my wife. She asked whether I had considered that maybe I have been the problem all along and should stop participating in the NPT review process 😂 020
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 22/05/2026I participated in the NPT review process for the first time in 2013. There has not been a single agreed Final Document since then. When the next RevCon starts in 2031, it will have been 21 years since states parties last reached consensus. 093
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 22/05/2026No consensus on the Final Document of the 2026 NPT RevCon. *sigh* 010
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 22/05/2026All right, we got ourselves a gap year, folks. NPT RevCon decides to hold the next RevCon in 2031 in New York, with PrepComs in 2028 (Vienna), 2029 (Geneva), and 2030 (New York). 011
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 22/05/2026A fascinating article by Vasily Kashin, Center Director at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. The view is becoming more popular in Russia as of late, but we haven't seen it described as prominently in policy and research publications 110
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 22/05/2026The fifth draft of the NPT final document is even shorter. Gone: paragraphs on nuclear sharing/extended deterrence, DPRK/Korean Peninsula, Zaporizhzhia NPP. Iran compliance paragraph bracketed (no consensus), language on reporting weakened 100
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 21/05/2026The fourth draft of the NPT final document is significantly shorter: 8 pages instead of 13, with 7 preambular and 45 operative paragraphs instead of 19 and 93. A lot of things are gone. 143
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 20/05/2026I really like the Russian-Chinese Joint Declaration on the Emergence of a Multipolar World and International Relations of a New Type adopted today. Just read some of the points 🧵: "All states and their associations are free to choose their foreign partners and models of international cooperation." 182
Reposted by Andrey BaklitskiyAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 09/05/2026Late in 2025 I saw a presentation on philanthropic contributions to various issues, which gave the following numbers for these issues: $10B — climate change $900M — AI safety $200M — biological threats $45M — nuclear security To just give a sense of orders of magnitudes... 085
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 19/05/2026The third draft of the NPT final document continues the trend of becoming less controversial and demanding, mostly losing parts of the text, including some added in Rev2. The only increase is on the side of peaceful uses, and some language on attacks against nuclear facilities 🧵 162
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 19/05/2026Just realized that next month Gen. Sergey Karakayev will mark 16 years as commander of Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, a record for both Russia and USSR. This is quite different from most other Russian services/ branches, which have seen significant turnover in recent years 120
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 06/05/2026Your classical NYC UN photo and - if you are at the NPT RevCon - a reminder to join us for our side event at 13:15 in CR8 on ensuring sustainable progress on risk reduction 050
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 02/05/2026P3 Joint Statement to the NPT RevCon encourages states to adopt concrete risk reduction measures, such as launch notifications and CBMs on nuclear testing and zero-yield. That's it, those are the measures. 000
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8 112
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 21/04/2026"The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin" - yeah, I don't think this is true 270
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Был рад поговорить с Павлом Палажченко про ядерное оружие, гонку вооружений, распространение и угрозу ядерной войны urbietorbi.online/articles/202...urbietorbi.online«Пока катимся вниз». Дипломат Палажченко и эксперт ООН по проблемам разоружения Баклицкий — о ядерной угрозе и шансах на выживание человечества — urbietorbi — сборникПавел Палажченко (Горбачев-фонд). Главными событиями последнего времени, вызвавшими опасения о смерти контроля над вооружениями и новой гонке вооружений, стали истечение срока действия договора СНВ-3 ... 011
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Happy Orthodox Easter and also the International Day of Human Space Flight 🙂 0113
Reposted by Andrey BaklitskiyOleg Shakirov @shakirov2036.bsky.social · 10/04/2026Russia just banned Stanford by declaring it an undesirable organization Coincidentally, Stanford is the alma mater of Russia's chief negotiator with the United States Kirill Dmitriev www.rbc.ru/politics/10/...rbc.ru 241
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 10/04/2026Russia designates Stanford University as an “undesirable organization,” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with it 1171
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 08/04/2026Russia’s foreign intelligence service (SVR) is again warning about nuclear threats. After claiming Ukraine is pursuing nuclear weapons, it now says the EU is too. Short thread 🧵 374
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 02/04/2026The ads I’m getting on Twitter lately are fascinating 110
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Dmitry Trenin, formerly Director of Carnegie Moscow and now with Higher School of Economics and IMEMO, was elected to be the next President of the Russian International Affairs Council instead of the former foreign minister Igor Ivanov 223
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 31/03/2026Russia designates Tufts University as an “undesirable organization” making it a criminal offense for Russian citizens to engage with it 2126
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Nominee for U.S. Strategic Command chief says “we have the capabilities and sufficient testing to satisfy ourselves on the reliability and efficacy of our nuclear warheads” www.reuters.com/world/nomine...reuters.comNominee to head US nuclear forces sees no need for warhead testsThe Navy admiral tapped as the new head of U.S. nuclear forces on Thursday endorsed a finding by the Energy Department and Pentagon that the U.S. nuclear arsenal is safe and reliable and there is no ... 0112
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 25/03/2026I’ve been cross-posting my Twitter threads to Bluesky for a while, and so far it just doesn’t work as a real alternative. My latest thread: 3 reposts and 5 likes here vs. 24 and 59 on Twitter. Even with fewer followers, the gap is hard to ignore. 220
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026Russia has submitted its national report to the 2026 NPT Review Conference (currently only in Russian – link in the first comment). Much of it is as you would expect if you have been following recent developments, but there are some pretty significant changes. A thread 🧵 1/15 152
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 23/03/2026To distract yourself from doomscrolling, please join us to discuss how to advance peaceful uses of nuclear energy in the NPT Review Process. We have a fantastic line-up from @worldnuclear.bsky.social, @iaeaorg.bsky.social, VCDNP and Amb Pekka Puustinen (Chair MC3) unidir.org/event/nuclea...unidir.orgNuclear energy and the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Advancing peaceful uses → UNIDIRExperts explore NPT Article IV implementation, nuclear energy rights & peaceful uses—from medicine to agriculture—ahead of the 2026 Review Conference. 010
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 19/03/2026No Iranian withdrawal from the NPT for now, it seems www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...al-monitor.comIran's nuclear doctrine not likely to change, foreign minister saysDUBAI, March 18 (Reuters) - Iran's stance against the development of nuclear weapons won't significantly change, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Al Jazeera in remarks relayed by Iranian media on W... 021
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 19/03/2026As we see higher and higher levels of escalation in the US and Israel war against Iran, I think about Iranian and Emirati nuclear power plants. Attacking them would have severe consequences and preventing this should be a priority 130
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 12/03/2026Everyone likes to talk about deterrence. Nobody likes to talk about deterrence breaking down. So a few observations based on what we’re seeing in the US war against Iran. Short thread 1/8 1195
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 03/03/2026And here is the recording of our side event to the CD on nuclear risk reduction and the NPT featuring UK Amb David Riley, China Amb Shen Jian, Austrian Amb Alexander Kmentt, Reto Wollenmann from Swiss MFA and our own Sarah Ruth Opatowski. A rather interesting discussion youtu.be/hJgR_j4Hi6I?...youtu.beNuclear risk reduction at the Non-Proliferation TreatyYouTube video by United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research 010
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 02/03/2026Pres. Macron says France will increase its nuclear arsenal. Not the first things that comes to mind amid all the tragedy and destruction, but it’s hard to see a successful NPT RevCon this year www.reuters.com/world/europe...reuters.comMacron says France will increase size of its nuclear arsenalFrance will increase the size of its nuclear arsenal and strengthen its deterrent, with an increasing risk of conflicts globally crossing the nuclear threshold, President Emmanuel Macron said on Monda... 042
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 02/03/2026It’s hard to be optimistic right now. But the best-case scenario is that the real costs of wars of choice eventually lead to military restraint - simply because war is usually the worst outcome for everyone involved 040
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 01/03/2026Broad Iranian attacks against the Gulf states in response to US and Israeli attacks against Iran are a perfect illustration of escalation risks. Your adversary has a say, and in a war things rarely go as smoothly as planned. 290
Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 24/02/2026Russian statement today about the UK and France working together on providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons and delivery systems is not the first time Moscow has mentioned this. A short thread with some context 1/x 140
