iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Alex Wellerstein

Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 22h

The White House accord on AI that was signed by all the big tech oligarchs today misspells United States as “Unites States.”

Document signed by Trump, Sundar Pichai
Google
Dario Amodei
Anthropic
Mark Zuckerberg
Meta

Greg Brockman
OpenAl

Elon Musk
XAI

Jensen Huang
nvidia

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 12h

Quite a remarkable map, table, and diagram from a 1971 report on launch-on-warning, showing the implications of Soviet submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) on detection, reaction, deliberation, and response time. All numbers are in SECONDS, which is what I find the most wild about it.

Map of the USA labeled "Soviet SLBM [Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile] Time of Flight to SAC [Strategic Air Command] Targets." Shows both "nominal" and "depressed" trajectories. Absolute best (north central USA) is between 580 and 850 seconds (9.6 – 14 min). Absolute worst (everywhere else) is between 320 and 650 seconds (5.3 – 10.8 min). The variations are based on where they assume the subs are launching from.

Table: "Early Warning System Performance." Shows four different systems (BMEWS, OTHF, SLBM Net, and a not-yet-operational in 1971 Boost-Phase Detection Satellite) that indicates the time of detection after launch (varies between 55 and 150 seconds; BMEWS cannot detect launches as it is only over-the-horizon radar), the time that the US command and control system would be alerted after launch (ranges from 85 seconds for the newest system to 900 seconds for BMEWs), the probably of detection of a single launch (BMEWS is 99%, SLBM Net is 50%, none of the others have probabilities), probably of detection for a mass launch (all around 100%), and their false alarm rate (BMEWS has 1 per 7 years, OTHF is 1 per 6 months, the others are unknown).

Diagram: "National Command-Warning to Response Cycle." Shows the consequences of a launch detection all the way through the US nuclear infrastructure, with "delay times" in seconds. Will be discussed in the next post in this thread.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 15h

I found a few more entries in the ever-popular "babushkas buffing bombs" genre of photography... (*I recognize that not all are authentic babushkas, but the alliteration was too great for me to resist, I apologize)

mopping RDS-1, the first Soviet atomic bomb

polishing RDS-4, the first Soviet tactical nuclear weapon

more buffing of RDS-1, with attention paid t the distinctive eye-like radar altitude sensors that give it such a kawaii face

a non-babushka cleans behind RDS-1's ears

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

So I find staying on top of e-mail IMPOSSIBLE. IMPOSSIBLE! How do you all manage it? How do you sort out the stuff you need to reply to or take action on in the future, and not lose it or forget about it? How do you keep e-mail from being 90% of your workday if that is not really your "job"?

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Reposted by Alex Wellerstein

Mike Eliason @holz-bau.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

chat is this good?

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Aparna Nair @disabilitystor1.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I keep coming back to this clip against the background of AI companies infesting higher education. And I feel like I need to show this in class to students, for them to understand why not to trust these bastards

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The techbros don't want you to see this trailer. Pass it on.

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Astra Taylor @astra.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Forget grandiose talk of curing cancer - this is what AI is actually doing to healthcare. In the words of one cardiologist: “it’s bots fighting bots, agents fighting agents, a horrible dystopic future nobody wants to live in.”

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I'm not Catholic, but it was still pretty cool to see the Pope outside my window yesterday

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Smooth Dunk @smoothdunk2.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

been thinkin about how robots are gonna kill us

Scratchy drawing of a two panel comic.
Panel 1:
Titled:“How we thought robots would kill us”
A robot shoots a human to death with a gun. It screams “Die flesh sack”

Panel 2:
Titled “How robots will actually kill us”
A MediBot is injecting something into a humans arm. The bot says “Whooops. I injected you with cancer instead of insulin. That’s on me”

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Reposted by Alex Wellerstein

Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

For DOOMSDAY MACHINES this week, I take a trip down memory lane, revisiting one of the first books I can remember reading that had anything about nuclear weapons in it: David Macaulay’s 1988 classic, "The Way Things Work."

doomsdaymachines.net

The Way Nukes Work (*Sort of)

Nuclear weapons and war in David Macaulay’s “The Way Things Work” (1988)

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

*record scratch* "So you might be wondering how I got here..." (Roberto Valturio, De re militari, 1472. No, I have no idea what it is trying to show about war.)

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

doomsdaymachines.net

The Way Nukes Work (*Sort of)

Nuclear weapons and war in David Macaulay’s “The Way Things Work” (1988)

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The Pope is visiting Paris tomorrow and will be literally across the street from me for part of it. I keep having these fantasies of running into him and having a banal Americans-in-Paris conversation. "Actually," I say to him, "if you tell them you're learning French, they're pretty encouraging."

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

From a strange conspiratorial Indian book on Google Books about how nuclear weapons don't exist (sigh) — but I thought these fruit analogies were fairly amusing. (The rest of the text, which is just that painful mixture of terrible confusion and disturbing overconfidence, is less amusing.)

"How much did Little Boy weigh? Everything about Little Boy is secret and mysterious. One of the project's great leaders, L. R. Groves, has told many thrilling stories about this bomb. But he was silent about how much Little Boy weighed. Some people think that two grapes' worth of uranium is enough for any nuclear reaction. Our letter writer does not think so. He thinks that Little Boy's uranium took only seven hundred grams in the reaction. That is not the weight of two grapes, that is the weight of one mango!"

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I was inexpertly repairing a button on a shirt and suddenly started thinking about how some judgy archaeologist from the future would be analyzing my work... "in this fascinating artifact of mass-produced clothing, notice how inexpertly this one button was sewn, compared to the other ones..."

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Reposted by Alex Wellerstein

Sam Barlow 🔥 @mrsambarlow.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Can we please go back to the old internet where Search was a bunch of efficient SQL queries? Please, I'm so done with this

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David Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

National security expert here, and speaking strictly personally, what the f#ck???

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

What would a distinctively French take on the post-apocalypse look like? In search of an answer for that, I take a look at a graphic novel adaptation of René Barjavel’s "Ravage" (1943) in this week’s DOOMSDAY MACHINES.

doomsdaymachines.net

Une apocalypse française

A modern graphic novel adaptation of René Barjavel’s “Ravage” (1943)

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

doomsdaymachines.net

Une apocalypse française

A modern graphic novel adaptation of René Barjavel’s “Ravage” (1943)

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

100% of my SMS spam would be blocked if my text messaging program would let me auto-junk any messages with the term "actblue.com" in it. And I'd do it in a heartbeat. I wonder if @actblueorg.bsky.social is aware how low their regard is for those of us who get daily spam in their name.

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Jason Kint @kint.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Straight from OpenAI's Brockman and Microsoft's Nadella - 'doom loop' for the entire web [as they vacuum up and substitute the work of journalism and threaten their economic foundations]. /2

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

@theatlantic.com just a note that apparently my name is misspelled in a recent article www.theatlantic.com/books/2026/0...

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Preview of the current state of (re)design for the NUKEMAP dropdown preset menus. The overall NUKEMAP aesthetic will be keeping more or less the same, but I am giving the underlying code a total overhaul, and trying to add more depth and options (without making it overwhelming, ideally).

A preset list of possible "nuclear targets" — all cities, in this case. Countries are shown with their national flags, as well as indicators of whether they have nuclear weapons (the radiation symbol, and the estimated number for capitals), and whether they are in mutual defense pacts with nuclear-states or organizations (e.g. NATO, SEATO, other mutual defense pacts).

Part of a list of historical and present-day nuclear weapons. The list now includes far more options, including more international ones, also again indicated by flags, as well as dates of deployment (if known). Items in yellow are either currently-deployed or meant to be representative of currently-deployed weapons.

Selecting a preset nuclear weapon will also present additional contextual information about the weapon (it can be collapsed easily) and photographs. The photographs can be enlarged by clicking on them, which also presents photo-specific captions.

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Reposted by Alex Wellerstein

Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

I didn't manage to get a DOOMSDAY MACHINES post up last week and I was feeling guilty, so this week will be a DOUBLE-SIZED edition, with a short little meditation on the cleaning of nuclear bombs today and the more substantial writeup of a French post-apocalyptic novel later in the week.

doomsdaymachines.net

The secret to avoiding dirty bombs

The surreality of cleaning nuclear weapons

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

doomsdaymachines.net

The secret to avoiding dirty bombs

The surreality of cleaning nuclear weapons

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Impressive and somewhat ominous cloud formation that I just saw while walking the dog. As seen from the 14th arrondissement, Paris, facing to the east.

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Mar Hicks @histoftech.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

when you work at the BPAF but you’re beginning to realize there’s not going to be a successful IPO

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Janitors scrub the "Tsar Bomba" at the Sarov museum. To keep it from becoming a dirty bomb, I imagine.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

FWIW, Truman wanted lightning bolts coming out of the arrowheads to be a symbol for the atomic bomb, also. He was persuaded not to. Churchill told Truman "that the berries — or whatever they are — on the olive branch is the eagle's claw looked suspiciously like atom bombs."

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The Arthur C. Clarke Award @clarkeaward.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Some scams are easier to spot than others. That said, we get these semi-regularly and they are only getting more focused and custom-tailored, so be careful writers! And, no, we didn’t reply, but it was super-tempting.

Text from a scam email message which reads:

Hi Arthur C. Clarke,

I recently came across 2001: A Space Odyssey, the 25th Anniversary Edition, and wanted to reach out.

I’ve been connecting with authors whose books are available to readers but may not be reaching as many new audiences as they could.

I’m curious how has your experience been with book visibility and reaching new readers? And have you considered exploring new ways to promote your book or expand its reach to additional platforms?

I’d genuinely be interested in hearing your thoughts and experience.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

OK, NUKEMAP's casualty calculator has been restored. Hooray?

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Got an angry e-mail from someone incensed that NUKEMAP has a default starting target in Russia and I had to explain that it starts off wherever you are, if it can figure it out. Otherwise it starts with New York City just for old times' sake. apjjf.org/2012/10/11/r...

apjjf.org

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I have been wanting to write about the role of dogs in the post-apocalyptic imagination since starting DOOMSDAY MACHINES, and the day has finally come… (But, I have to admit, the title was about of half of my motivation.)

doomsdaymachines.net

Doomsday Puppers

Man’s best friend at the end of the world

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

doomsdaymachines.net

Doomsday Puppers

Man’s best friend at the end of the world

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

hmm I ran it again and got weird results this name btw, NUKEMAP's casualty calculator is temporarily offline while I am upgrading the server that it runs on (one of those "you upgrade mysql and now you have to upgrade everything else" things). should have it back up by tomorrow at the latest.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

I am a sucker for these dialect quiz things. This one is pretty good, although as someone from Northern California I am seething that they do not distinguish more between NorCal and SoCal dialects, much less central CA (where I grew up) from the coast. What do they think we are, the same state!?!?

Map of the USA from https://mydialect.us indicating that I pronounce English like someone from California, which is not inaccurate

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This is a mildly amusing almost-redaction: my theory here is that the censor mistook this table for partition of energy from a fission weapon, and not a fission reaction, and then realized their mistake. The former can be classified, the latter is basic physics.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

I fell into a little rabbit hole this morning... I've been doing some fallout modeling, and it occurred to me to ask whether swapping out a U-238 tamper in a thermonuclear secondary for a U-235 one, as some modern US TN weapon designs are alleged to do, would change the intensity of fallout.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Striking-yet-difficult-to-parse Cold War report graphic of the day — "Time History of Biological Response to Ionizing Radiation" (US Naval Radiological Laboratory, 1965)

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drewtoothpaste @drewtoothpaste.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

i do not know with what instruments the fourth wave of ska will be made, but the fifth wave of ska will be made with sticks and stones

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

"THE KILLER CURVE" — estimated area that would be lethal to a submarine from an underwater nuclear detonation (ca. 1947?)

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

I saw "The Dog Stars" today and among the many, MANY issues I had with the film (Ridley Scott, what the heck, man?), their utter disregard for petroleum realism happened to stick out to me for some reason...

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

can someone please just make this for the entire internet... please? I long for the days of a decent DOS terminal interface

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Filed under "would make a great alternative album cover from the '90s": automobile at the Nevada Test Site, 1953, engulfed in flames after thermal radiation from a nuclear explosion ignited its upholstery.

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

LinkedIn sponsored spam is wild (actual "publication" looks like 100% ChatGPT slop, huge surprise)

Spam ("sponsored") private message on LinkedIn from "Teresa D.":

"Dear Alex,

We’re thrilled to share that you have been officially selected to be featured in Notable Men, a national publication dedicated to celebrating remarkable men who are shaping industries, driving innovation, and making an impact.

Notable Men is a platform showcasing accomplished executives, professionals, and entrepreneurs who are inspiring the next generation of leaders. From boardrooms to classrooms, from tech hubs to healthcare systems, we are spotlighting the stories of men whose leadership is transforming the world.

You were selected as a representative of excellence in your field, and we would be honored to include you in an upcoming feature. Inclusion is by invitation only."

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

It's been forever since I've done a post specifically related to Oregon Road '83 on DOOMSDAY MACHINES, and I've been wanting to write up this research on gasoline after a nuclear war for ages. What started as specifically a game-related research question became (as always) a rather deep dive...

doomsdaymachines.net

Running on empty

How much gasoline would be available after a full-scale nuclear war?

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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

doomsdaymachines.net

Running on empty

How much gasoline would be available after a full-scale nuclear war?

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