iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

@frhoffmann.bsky.social

17K followers 536 following 977 posts

Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence 👇 missilematters.substack.com/subscri…

Posts Replies Media

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

🚀 With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched. But can it do so? missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...

missilematters.substack.com

Can Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?

Why Ukraine's effort to interdict Russian Iskander-M launchers is difficult but not impossible

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Whenever I'm briefed by people working in the European oil sector, their assessments of just how bad the last 12 months have been for Russia's oil sector consistently exceed those reported in public news. And it's just going to get worse from here.

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

🚀 With Russian ballistic missile production rising and far outpacing Europe's ability to supply interceptors, Ukraine has little choice but to try to interdict Russian ballistic missiles before they are launched. But can it do so? missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain...

missilematters.substack.com

Can Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?

Why Ukraine's effort to interdict Russian Iskander-M launchers is difficult but not impossible

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Can #Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?, by @frhoffmann.bsky.social. substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar

Can Ukraine Hunt Russian Mobile Missile Launchers?

Why Ukraine's effort to interdict Russian Iskander-M launchers is difficult but not impossible

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Since early 2026, Russia has fielded a family of low-cost, turbojet-powered cruise missiles and dramatically scaled up production. Russia is now launching hundreds of low-cost cruise missiles each month, soon likely thousands. 1/3 missilematters.substack.com/p/cheap-fast...

missilematters.substack.com

Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal

Profiling the systems now filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal. @frhoffmann.bsky.social profiles the systems that are filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles. substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine

Cheap, Fast, and Mass-Produced: Russia's New Low-Cost Cruise Missile Arsenal

Profiling the systems now filling the gap between drones and high-end missiles

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Benjamin Husstad-Nedberg @factforce.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

US is in practically the same situation in Iran as Russia is in Ukraine. Both are losing their wars. Latest from 'Mildly Alarmed'👇 @frhoffmann.bsky.social @kaeggen.bsky.social @alanderminna.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social

Ukraine’s independence day, European responses and the Iran quagmire | Mildly Alarmed

YouTube video by Mildly Alarmed

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

I had the pleasure of sitting down for a long interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt on ballistic missile defense challenges in Ukraine, Europe, and the Middle East. One thing I was glad was raised is the issue of doctrine. 1/4 www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...

handelsblatt.com

Rüstung: „Wer mit ballistischen Raketen angreift, ist immer im Vorteil“

Der Luftkrieg mit Raketen stellt den Westen vor ein Dilemma: Angreifer produzieren mehr und billiger als Verteidiger, sagt Fabian Hoffmann. Im Interview skizziert der Politikwissenschaftler Lösungen.

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

🚀 Why spend 22.9 billion USD on 7,000+ Tomahawks when low-cost alternatives are available en masse? My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart. Full analysis available here: missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m... 1/3

missilematters.substack.com

High-Low Mix: The Three Tiers of Modern Missile Arsenals

High-end systems, low-cost missiles, long-range drones, and the future missile arsenals of the world

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

🚀 Why spend 22.9 billion USD on 7,000+ Tomahawks when low-cost alternatives are available en masse? My latest Missile Matters post takes this question apart. Full analysis available here: missilematters.substack.com/p/high-low-m... 1/3

missilematters.substack.com

High-Low Mix: The Three Tiers of Modern Missile Arsenals

High-end systems, low-cost missiles, long-range drones, and the future missile arsenals of the world

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

🚀 New Mildly Alarmed episode out. @alanderminna.bsky.social and I discuss one of the key topics of my recently defended PhD: How does the proliferation of long-range strike weapons to small and medium-sized states affect strategic stability? 1/3 www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRLD...

When small states get long range missiles | Mildly Alarmed

YouTube video by Mildly Alarmed

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Dr. Viktor Baranov🧪🦟🐛🪲 @swarmofthoughts.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

listening to @alanderminna.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social, on "Mildly alarmed" on deterrence by punishment and missiles. Its a bummer, my phd was not on anything that impactful.. (does cat dads allowed dad jokes?)

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

🚀 Ukraine's deep-strike production capacity is quoted at up to 25 billion USD for 2026. How much of it can foreign buyers access? Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/exporting-... 1/3

missilematters.substack.com

Can Ukraine Become a Missile and Long-Range Drone Exporter?

Internal, competitive, and legal barriers to Ukrainian deep-strike exports

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Department of Political Science, University of Oslo @statsvitenskap.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Congratulations to @frhoffmann.bsky.social who defended his PhD thesis, "The Strategic-Level Effects of Conventional Long-Range Strike Weapons: Implications for Strategic Stability", yesterday! 💐👨‍🎓👏

photo: Haakon Lindemann Andressen

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Ukraine's Missile Defense Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions

How Russian ballistic missiles overwhelm Ukraine's missile defenses and what can be done

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Karen-Anna Eggen @kaeggen.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

New episode of Mildly Alarmed is out! In this epiode we (@alanderminna.bsky.social @frhoffmann.bsky.social @lapatina.bsky.social) discuss some, of many, summer developments in Ukraine. Details 👇

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post on Ukraine's missile defense crisis, outlining why ballistic missile defense is so challenging and what can be done to alleviate pressure. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-m... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Ukraine's Missile Defense Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions

How Russian ballistic missiles overwhelm Ukraine's missile defenses and what can be done

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Dead Carl @deadcarl.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

🚀 A few days ago, Missile Matters passed 10,000 subscribers. Today I published a post announcing the biggest change since the blog began: Missile Matters now offers a paid subscription tier. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/10000-subs... 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

10,000 Subscribers and a New Chapter: Missile Matters Adds a Paid Tier

Missile Matters is launching paid subscriptions. Much of the blog stays free. Here is what changes and why.

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post on how Ukraine's deep-strike campaign has transformed the Ukrainian state itself. In short: the state makes the missile, and the missile makes the state. Short summary below. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-... 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State

The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Tilman @tilmane.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Excellent article by @frhoffmann.bsky.social on #Ukraines new strength based on long range missile strike capability substack.com/@frhoffmann/...

Fabian Hoffmann (@frhoffmann)

🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post on what Ukraine's deep-strike campaign has done to the Ukrainian state itself. Between 18 and 24 July, Ukrainian drones struck several Wildberries logist...

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

"The state that enters those talks differs in important respects from the state Russia invaded in 2022: a missile power in its own right, retaining the power to hurt. Russia will be negotiating with the missile on the table and state the missile made." missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...

missilematters.substack.com

The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State

The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Shannon Monaghan @shannonmonaghan.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Great essay from @frhoffmann.bsky.social : "For much of the war, Ukraine’s future was shaped, or at least feared to be shaped, by Western capitals reacting to Russian manipulation of risk. Ukraine now holds the power to manipulate that risk itself." missilematters.substack.com/p/the-state-...

missilematters.substack.com

The State Makes the Missile, and the Missile Makes the State

The power to hurt: Ukraine's deep-strike campaign and the transformation of the Ukrainian state

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

I have serious doubts that this is a worthwhile investment for Germany. As I have mentioned before, I think Trump originally did the Germans a solid by not selling the system, forcing them to look for solutions on the European market. www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen... 1/2

Einigung mit den USA: Deutschland kauft "Tomahawk"-Marschflugkörper

Die Einigung mit den USA verkündet Kanzler Merz in seiner Regierungserklärung. Washington hat dem Verkauf von "Tomahawk"-Marschflugkörpern an Deutschland zugestimmt.

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

JLichdi @jlichdi.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Fazit:: die Flamingos treffen immer besser.

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post out, reviewing Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missile strike on the Titan-Barrikady plant and situating it within Flamingo's emerging strike history Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/is-the-fp-... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Is the FP-5 Flamingo Cruise Missile Starting to Deliver? Evidence from Ten Confirmed Strikes

Recent Flamingo strikes may indicate improved performance of the Ukrainian heavy cruise missile

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

I'll publish a new Missile Matters post on the operational history of the Flamingo tomorrow morning. But what stands out is that, so far, Ukraine does not seem to intend on using the Flamingo to strike oil and gas infrastructure, instead relying on long-range drones for that task. 1/3

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post on the emerging ballistic missile defense market in Europe, prompted by Frankenburg Technologies' announcement that it is seeking 100 million euros to develop a Patriot-competitive system. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/the-last-f... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

The Last Frontier: European Manufacturers Move Ahead on Ballistic Missile Defense

After FirePoint, Estonian missile house Frankenburg Technologies seeks to enter the ballistic missile defense market

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

🚀 I just published my latest Missile Matters post assessing Russia's growing air and missile defense problem. Russia is now experiencing the same interceptor scarcity that has long plagued Ukraine. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/missile-de... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Missile Defense's Unforgiving Logic Comes Back to Haunt Russia

Ukrainian long-range drone attacks expose a deepening air defense shortage

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

In all honesty, the US would be doing Germany a favor. The Tomahawk Block Vb, the variant under discussion, will not enter service with the U.S. fleet before 2028, more likely 2029. Germany, as an export partner, would likely have to wait longer still. 1/3 www.politico.com/news/2026/06...

Pentagon likely to cancel missile deal with Germany over fears of Russia

The decision is part of a broader American retrenchment from the NATO alliance.

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Russian conventional ballistic missile production rates, focusing on the 9M723 Iskander-M and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/how-many-c... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

How Many Ballistic Missiles Is Russia Producing?

Assessing 9M723 Iskander-M and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal output against employment data

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

This new podcast is rapidly turning into a weekly ritual for me. Looking forward to listening to this episode.

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post on the Department of War's framework agreements for 10,000+ low-cost cruise missiles and 12,000 low-cost hypersonic missiles — and what they reveal about the U.S. missile industrial base. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-united... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

The United States is Betting Big on Affordable Missiles

Four mini cruise missiles and one low-cost aeroballistic missile now feature prominetnly in the U.S. missile industrial ramp-up

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post on the Department of War's framework agreements for 10,000+ low-cost cruise missiles and 12,000 low-cost hypersonic missiles — and what they reveal about the U.S. missile industrial base. missilematters.substack.com/p/the-united... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

The United States is Betting Big on Affordable Missiles

Four mini cruise missiles and one low-cost aeroballistic missile now feature prominetnly in the U.S. missile industrial ramp-up

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Big cruise missile day in Europe. 1) Destinus revealed a 2,000-kilometer Block 3 variant of its Ruta air-launched cruise missile. 2) MBDA updated on its ground-launched Land Cruise Missile (Europe's closest Tomahawk equivalent), reportedly ready for order in 2029. 1/4

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post: how Europe can rapidly acquire deep-strike capabilities after Washington canceled the Long-Range Fires Battalion. No ideal solution remains, but Europe is not out of options. missilematters.substack.com/p/beggars-ca... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Beggars Can't be Choosers: Three Pathways for Europe to Acquire Deep Strike Quickly

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

🚀 New Missile Matters post: how Europe can rapidly acquire deep-strike capabilities after Washington canceled the Long-Range Fires Battalion. No ideal solution remains, but Europe is not out of options. missilematters.substack.com/p/beggars-ca... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Beggars Can't be Choosers: Three Pathways for Europe to Acquire Deep Strike Quickly

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

The second episode of Mildly Alarmed is out ! In which we discuss European security from various perspectives, @frhoffmann.bsky.social outs himself as a Europtimist and I have an electricity blackout to keep things interesting. Also featuring the best @lapatina.bsky.social & @kaeggen.bsky.social

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Episode two of the Mildly Alarmed podcast is in the can and out tomorrow. This one covers the state of European security and defense. We are still finding our footing, but we are having fun along the way. If you want to follow along and are not yet subscribed, you can do so via the links below.

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Ukrainian claims about jamming Russian ballistic missiles. In short: technically demanding, but plausibly feasible. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Can Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense

Picture: Mil.ru via Wikimedia Commons

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Some thoughts on the United States ending plans to deploy a Long-Range Fires battalion to Europe: I am somewhat less alarmed about what this means for Germany and Europe. 1/6

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Jørn Tychsen @jorntychsen.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Lots of nice technical details. Keep them coming 🙂 Ir also shows that sanctions which can diminis Russias acces to intertial navigation components, is key.

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

🚀 I just published a new Missile Matters post assessing Ukrainian claims about jamming Russian ballistic missiles. In short: technically demanding, but plausibly feasible. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/can-ukrain... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Can Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense

Picture: Mil.ru via Wikimedia Commons

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Andrej Matisak @matisaksk.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Can #Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense, by @frhoffmann.bsky.social. substack.com/app-link/pos... #Russia #Putinswar

Can Ukraine Jam Russian Ballistic Missiles? Evaluating Soft-Kill Options for Ballistic Missile Defense

Picture: Mil.ru via Wikimedia Commons

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

🚀🚀

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing France's long-range and deep-strike rearmament programs. France is developing 12 distinct systems — more than any other European state. Access the post here: missilematters.substack.com/p/french-lon... Short summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

France Goes Deep

A review of French long-range and deep strike development projects

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post earlier today, discussing how Ukraine's deep-strike drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has likely crossed a threshold that earlier phases did not reach. Link to the piece: missilematters.substack.com/p/ukraines-d... Summary below. 1/5

missilematters.substack.com

Ukraine's Deep-Strike Drone Campaign Against Russian Oil Infrastructure

How Ukraine is systematically degrading Russian energy export capacity — and what it means for the war

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Thread. NB: “The deeper issue is scale. European states do not need hundreds of missiles; they need thousands. Current production lines cannot sustain resupply during war, including across the late-2020s, the period officials have identified as the period of greatest danger for Europe.”

Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann, PhD

Fabian Hoffmann, PhD @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing the state of European long-range strike procurement, and diagnosing what I call a European Sonderweg: a divergence from the rest of the world in this capability area. Link: missilematters.substack.com/p/a-european... Summary below. 1/4

missilematters.substack.com

A European Sonderweg in Long-Range Strike

How European states are diverging from global procurement trends in long-range drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles