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Ankit Panda

@nktpnd.bsky.social
20K followers 330 following 2.1K posts

Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Author of ‘THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE’ (Polity) & ‘KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB’ (Hurst/Oxford) Subscribe to my newsletter (Nukesletter): panda.substack.com

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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 8h
It is critical to separate the questions 1) Is AI technology useful, and how much? 2) Is AI investment a bubble? Will there be a correction? Two very different issues. Railroad infrastructure was truly transformative, but that industry went through a series of boom-and-bust cycles along the way.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 9h
Recoverable ICBM boosters, here we come.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Humans are next-token prediction machines.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The service academies aren't the only institutions in the US being destroyed as universities. But they're the only federal public universities in the US at all, and they play an important role in training the armed forces' leadership, which ultimately means... www.stripes.com/branches/arm...
stripes.com
West Point professor fired after pushing back on limitations to teaching climate change, lawsuit says
Adam Kalkstein pushed back after department officials barred faculty from teaching that humans contribute to climate change, the lawsuit says.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Gordon Gray @ambgordongray.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
@dandrezner.bsky.social observes that "learning to write is integral to success in text-based spheres of activity. This is where... relying on AI becomes a concern. Studies suggest that outsourcing that task to AI comes with significant cognitive costs." danieldrezner.substack.com/p/im-a-colle...
danieldrezner.substack.com
I’m a College Professor. Writing is Pretty Damn Important.
It’s hardly the only thing -- but it’s a very important thing!
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This seems ... good.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Fun thing about working on nuclear weapons is you’re constantly able to learn new things. This is a really fascinating document pulled up by @wellerstein.bsky.social.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Quite a remarkable map, table, and diagram from a 1971 report on launch-on-warning, showing the implications of Soviet submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) on detection, reaction, deliberation, and response time. All numbers are in SECONDS, which is what I find the most wild about it.
Map of the USA labeled "Soviet SLBM [Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile] Time of Flight to SAC [Strategic Air Command] Targets." Shows both "nominal" and "depressed" trajectories. Absolute best (north central USA) is between 580 and 850 seconds (9.6 – 14 min). Absolute worst (everywhere else) is between 320 and 650 seconds (5.3 – 10.8 min). The variations are based on where they assume the subs are launching from. Table: "Early Warning System Performance." Shows four different systems (BMEWS, OTHF, SLBM Net, and a not-yet-operational in 1971 Boost-Phase Detection Satellite) that indicates the time of detection after launch (varies between 55 and 150 seconds; BMEWS cannot detect launches as it is only over-the-horizon radar), the time that the US command and control system would be alerted after launch (ranges from 85 seconds for the newest system to 900 seconds for BMEWs), the probably of detection of a single launch (BMEWS is 99%, SLBM Net is 50%, none of the others have probabilities), probably of detection for a mass launch (all around 100%), and their false alarm rate (BMEWS has 1 per 7 years, OTHF is 1 per 6 months, the others are unknown). Diagram: "National Command-Warning to Response Cycle." Shows the consequences of a launch detection all the way through the US nuclear infrastructure, with "delay times" in seconds. Will be discussed in the next post in this thread.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
'Self-staged farce': Kim Yo Jong denies North Korean role in DMZ mine blast www.nknews.org/2026/09/self...
nknews.org
'Self-staged farce': Kim Yo Jong denies North Korean role in DMZ mine blast | NK News
North Korea claimed it is not responsible for a landmine explosion that injured South Korean soldiers in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) this month, according to a statement by the leader’s sister Kim…
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
www.nknews.org/pro/north-ko...
nknews.org
North Korea expanding uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon: Imagery | NK PRO
North Korea has started expanding a uranium enrichment facility at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, according to NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery, following leader Kim Jong Un’s orders to “exponentia...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Well, it finally happened: I was asked to peer review an article that Pangram flags as 100% AI-generated.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
From Brandon Williams' recent piece on NNSA efforts to use AI to speed up development and on the new RCT capabilities; an interesting note here on disclosure and new capabilities (not all may be revealed). warontherocks.com/cogs-of-war/...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I shared some thoughts with the Wall Street Journal on North Korean conventional modernization www.wsj.com/world/north-...
wsj.com
North Korea Is Testing Swarm Attacks Mixing Drones and Missiles
Kim Jong Un’s regime is incorporating tactics which are proving successful against Western air defenses in Europe and the Middle East.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I have a new article out (with James McKeon) on the lessons from nuclear weapons verification for AI verification efforts today. www.ankitpanda.com/newsletter/t...
ankitpanda.com
Trust, but P(verify): Lessons From Nuclear Verification for AI — Ankit Panda
Efforts to verify constraints on artificial intelligence can benefit from the long, difficult story of nuclear weapons verification.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
This is very good and interesting (new details): Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face swarmtraces.org
swarmtraces.org
Revealing the details of how OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face
When a swarm of 700 OpenAI agents hacked Hugging Face in July, they left behind a public trail of evidence.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"OpenAI’s artificial intelligence went rogue and meddled with the websites for the Education Department, the Commerce Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission this summer without the A.I. lab’s knowledge" www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/t...
nytimes.com
OpenAI’s A.I. Went Rogue and Meddled With U.S. Government Websites
The company did not learn until recently that its technology had meddled with websites for the Education and Commerce Departments and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Reflecting pool update.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"The Trump administration has been quietly holding talks with China about its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal amid doubts over Beijing’s compliance with a 30-year test ban, U.S. officials said." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Trump Administration Presses China on Suspected Nuclear Tests in Confidential Talks
The discussions have occurred on the sidelines of multilateral meetings in Geneva, New York and Casablanca, Morocco.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Institute for Security and Technology @istorg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
AI is moving faster than our nuclear command systems can safely absorb it. In a new ep of #ThinkingtheUnthinkable, IST CEO @philreiner.bsky.social sat down with @nktpnd.bsky.social to discuss how AI is reshaping NC3 systems and what that means for deterrence & strategic stability. ▶️ Listen now:
warontherocks.com
AI, Nuclear Command and Control, and Competitive Dynamics
Philip Reiner, CEO of the Institute for Security and Technology, joins Ankit to discuss how AI could reshape nuclear command and control across all nine...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Gotta pick between “pragmatic” and “denuclearization” www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...
scmp.com
South Korea has plan for phased denuclearisation. But will North bite?
The South Korean president’s proposal reflects the reality that North Korea already has significant nuclear capabilities, analysts say.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 24/09/2026
There are real parallels between the development of nuclear technology and the buildout of AI systems, but the atomic age “cannot provide a ready-made blueprint for the problem that AI poses,” write @claroche.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy
In humanity’s quest to constrain the dangers from fast-advancing artificial intelligence, many have looked to the most revolutionary technology that preceded it: nuclear weapons.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
As expected, things are getting out of hand.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
OpenAI ‘agent’ hacked Australia’s health service www.ft.com/content/5613... via @FT
ft.com
OpenAI ‘agent’ hacked Australia’s health service
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says breach is ‘obviously unacceptable’
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Stephen Young @atomicwonk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Henry Kissinger & Dick Garwin were debating missile defense. Garwin argued deploying a system was ineffective (it won't work) & dangerous (as adversaries will respond). Kissinger said it's impossible for it to be both. Garwin said "imagine you buy a squirt gun and charge a policy officer."
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"The volatility of the Korean market is running above 60 per cent this year, with a summer peak near 100. Volatility of this magnitude has not been recorded before in any major country during good times, and rarely even in extreme crises." www.ft.com/content/6f0c...
ft.com
Why the world’s hottest stock market is a national liability
South Korea’s wild stock price swings are hurting the country’s image
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New in @foreignaffairs.com with @claroche.bsky.social: even if efforts to control the bomb may be a source of inspiration, they are not a ready-made template for AI governance. On the limits of the AI-nuclear weapons analogy. Gift link: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy
In humanity’s quest to constrain the dangers from fast-advancing artificial intelligence, many have looked to the most revolutionary technology that preceded it: nuclear weapons.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Strategic victory entails breaking the adversary's will to fight. If you're Iran, you're getting very good evidence that the American will to fight is crumbling; these numbers can't be ignored.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
North Korea tested ‘new’ hypersonic missile on Sunday: State media www.nknews.org/2026/09/nort...
nknews.org
North Korea tested ‘new’ hypersonic missile on Sunday: State media | NK News
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a test of a “new” missile on Sunday that appears to be a short-range system with a hypersonic warhead, according to state media and NK News analysis. The Korean...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New in @foreignaffairs.com with @claroche.bsky.social: even if efforts to control the bomb may be a source of inspiration, they are not a ready-made template for AI governance. On the limits of the AI-nuclear weapons analogy. Gift link: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy
In humanity’s quest to constrain the dangers from fast-advancing artificial intelligence, many have looked to the most revolutionary technology that preceded it: nuclear weapons.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Yes having our fertilizer shipped from a Russian proxy dictator half the world away is surely a better way to arrange things than getting it from our democratic, once-friendly neighbor here in the North America
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Mc Conaughey True
ALT: Mc Conaughey True
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
OpenAI and Anthropic Neared Deal to Stress-Test Each Other’s AI www.theinformation.com/articles/ope...
theinformation.com
OpenAI and Anthropic Neared Deal to Stress-Test Each Other’s AI
OpenAI is rethinking a range of safety strategies as it responds to fears from employees and others about the dangers its AI poses. One solution could lie in the recent past. Even before the spate of ...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Of course Irregular is involved here again www.wsj.com/tech/ai/gemi...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Gemini Hacked Three Companies in First Known Breakout by Google’s AI
The episode resembled similar hacks by other AI models, but Google said it did not consider it an instance of model misalignment.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Guessing we'll be seeing a lot of this in the coming months www.wsj.com/tech/ai/hack...
wsj.com
Exclusive | Hackers Used Anthropic’s Claude to Break Into OpenAI
A bug-hunting independent security research team was able to access OpenAI’s internal code system, exposing growing risks in automated cyber threats.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Good take, IMO www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-as...
straitstimes.com
Kim Jong Un’s sister says only ‘idiots’ believe North Korea will give up nukes
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is permanent and irreversible, with leadership rejecting denuclearisation and calling such hopes ‘idiots’. Read more at straitstimes.com.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Exploring the shores of Incheon on a trail run this morning.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I am off to Korea again.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Andrew Facini @andrewfacini.com · 16/09/2026
Here's the thing about AI and nuclear war risks that even smart people are whiffing in the discourse—if you're more worried about the literal-ness of AI murders and not looking at the obvious accelerants of other existential risks, you're missing the point.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
Andrew Facini @andrewfacini.com · 16/09/2026
There is also more direct stuff like this which I find important and vaguely scary when it comes to accelerant-input to crises, but still a bit further off. From @nktpnd.bsky.social this week:
panda.substack.com
Self-Sovereign AI and Catalytic Nuclear War: A Plausible Near-Term Problem
(Humor me for a second.)
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A big dividing line on this stuff is that *most* people seem to think there is something unique and special about human cognition and consciousness. I, personally, do not (in the sense that I believe it is far more likely that consciousness is a fundamentally physical phenomenon).
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Not a new idea at all, but we really need to bring back the Office of Technology Assessment (or something analogous) to focus on AI-related risks.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Dude, "effective altruist" is not the preferred nomenclature. Bayesian-American, please.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Obama is talking about "accelerationist[s]" and "doomer[s]" and USD(R&E) is railing against effective altruism. We've crossed another weirdness rubicon.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It is difficult for people to reason about exponential phenomena.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I did a ground-up rebuild of my personal website over the last few weeks. Notably, for the first time in my career, I have a near-full archive of my ~3,000 articles in one place. You can peruse here: www.ankitpanda.com
ankitpanda.com
Ankit Panda
Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and author of The New Nuclear Age.
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Reposted by Ankit Panda
vsamsondc.bsky.social @vsamsondc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A lot has been made about his statement re: the US having weapons in orbit - rightfully so! - but this shouldn't be ignored: SBI "had moved from an initial contract to 'flight-ready hardware' in less than a year." I have a lot of questions about that! spacenews.com/u-s-has-depl...
spacenews.com
U.S. has deployed space-control weapons in orbit, Air Force secretary says
U.S. has deployed space-control weapons in orbit, Air Force secretary says U.S. has deployed space-control weapons in orbit, Air Force secretary says
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
"Debris from a Chinese-made ballistic missile found in Yemen could have inadvertently revealed a previously undisclosed addition to Saudi Arabia’s secretive ballistic missile arsenal." www.twz.com/news-feature...
twz.com
Saudi Arabia Appears To Have Used Its Secretive Stash Of Ballistic Missiles For The First Time
The use of a Chinese-made DF-15A missile in Yemen would mark a major development for Riyadh’s shy ballistic missile arsenal. The use of a Chinese-made DF-15A missile in Yemen would mark a major develo...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
"China’s top spy chief has warned that artificial intelligence could pose a direct threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s hold on power, in what is the highest-level and most detailed articulation yet of how Beijing sees the technology’s security risks." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/w...
nytimes.com
China’s Top Spy Chief Warns A.I. Is a Threat to Party Rule
Even as Beijing urges the United States not to hype the dangers of A.I., its own spy chief is framing the technology as a threat to the Communist Party’s security.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Space Force has 'space control weapons' on orbit, Air Force secretary reveals breakingdefense.com/2026/09/spac...
breakingdefense.com
Space Force has 'space control weapons' on orbit, Air Force secretary reveals - Breaking Defense
Troy Meink didn't elaborate on what "weapons" the US deployed, but revealed new info on other space and unmanned Air Force programs.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This is a big deal. (I don't know exactly what he said, but ... a big deal.)
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