iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026

Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024

Screenshot showing interactive ward level MRP estimates at the 2024 UK general election.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Support outnumbers opposition in every age group, including those most affected: -> 55-64: 61% support, 16% oppose -> 65+: 55% support, 27% oppose 8/9

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW: Where will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? Initial reactions to the PM’s speech in a poll of 1,548 adults in the UK interviewed in the hours after the speech on 29 September on behalf of Mandate Research 🧵1/9

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Instant reaction from the public to the PM’s speech

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

NEW Survation poll of 10,024 people, 10 years after the Brexit referendum 🇬🇧 If a vote were held tomorrow: 55% would vote to Rejoin the EU vs 32% to stay out (13% undecided). Among decided voters, that's 63% Rejoin vs 37% Leave. 🧵 1/5 survation.com/buyers-remor...

survation.com

Buyer’s Remorse? Where public opinion stands 10 years after Brexit | Survation

A decade on since the country voted to Leave the European Union on the 23rd of June 2016, public opinion has shifted decisively away from...

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 23/04/2026

BBS Exclusive Poll Analysis: Survation 14th - 21st of April 2026 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 57 Reform ~ 21 Labour ~ 18 Conservative ~ 13 Green ~ 11 Lib Dem ~ 9 Independence: Yes ~ 51% No ~ 49%

ballotbox.scot

BBS Exclusive Poll Analysis: Survation 14th – 21st of April 2026

This BBS-commissioned poll is surprisingly poor for the SNP, but still has a small Pro-Independence majority. Nonetheless, John Swinney will be hoping this is an outlier.

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 10/12/2025

This is all based on a fundamental misreading of foundational political science by political strategists. Elite cues matter! Messaging matters! Opinion leadership is a thing!

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

I’d love to see gov’t officials try to define the British ‘middle class’ after the enormous struggle to come up with a usable definition for ‘working people’

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Next Labour Deputy Leader is likely to be to the right of the party on economic issues. Based on our estimates with @chanret.bsky.social and @ukandeu.bsky.social You can play around with it on www.mpsleftright.co.uk

mpsleftright.co.uk

Survation/Royal Holloway estimates of MP positions

Site allowing you to compare the positions of MPs on the left-right dimension

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 05/09/2025

Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...

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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social piece - on how to rank MPs, inc one of my fave academic studies, which put Diane Abbott to the right of Giles Radice. Also includes Rush reference.

politicshome.com

The Professor Will See You Now: Ranking MPs' politics

Professor Philip Cowley offers a political science lesson for The House’s readers. This week: ranking the politics of MPs

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

NEW: Our latest poll of full- and part-time workers found only a third think their organisation is ready to take advantage of AI. However, this jumps to 58% of those in tech, media, or communications. @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social analyses the results below Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7jF 🧵 1/5

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/06/2025

Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that's a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP. As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

Who would make the best prime minister by age groups? This and more from my colleague @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social below 👇

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 27 (-3) LAB 24 (-1) CON 20 (+2) LD 13 (-) GRN 8 (+1) OTH 7 (-) F/w 30th May - 2nd June 2025. Changes vs 5th May. 🧵1/7

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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

I’ve never understood the irrational opposition to universal ID in this country so very happy to see this in my inbox today

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015. This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

New Senedd polling shows Labour in the lead but with Reform and Plaid close behind. LAB 27% REF 24% PC 24% CON 15% LD 5% GRE 5% OTH 1% F/w 10th March - 3rd April. @jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

A big shift in mood among Labour members after the spring statement. Support for the leadership has dropped sharply, welfare reforms are seen as damaging, and next month's local elections are expected to go very badly. More below👇

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Laura Serra @lauraserra.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

I’m just a girl standing in front of a boy telling him it’s not true he has become more right-wing… it is me who has become more left-wing 🫠

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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 20/03/2025

I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :( So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/

Screenshot of the linked Quarto website, with input checkboxes to change different conditions for a regression model that predicts economic performance based on US political party, with a reported p-value

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

We (@survation.bsky.social) have launched an exciting new partnership with @labourlist.bsky.social to provide regular polling of Labour Party members on their views of cabinet, leadership, policies and external threats. Findings from our first poll below 👇

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Vasil Lazarov @vlazarov.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Highest support we have ever recorded for Reform UK in a Scottish poll, while the SNP maintains an 11-point lead over Labour

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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/03/2025

A British election factoid I hadn't noticed until I was updating my lecture slides - in 2024 only 15% of constituencies were won by a majority of votes. That is less than half the previous low of 34% recorded in 2010.

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

We are hiring! Survation is looking for a Trainee Research Executive to join our team. If you are passionate about polling, data analysis, and public opinion research, apply now! Deadline: 24th March 2024 More details: www.survation.com/survation-is...

survation.com

Survation is recruiting a Trainee Research Executive | Survation

Job Title: Trainee Research Executive Location: London Salary: £26,250 (initial) Contract Type: Permanent About Survation Survation is a leading market research and political polling...

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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Are you an U/G in the social sciences looking for a Masters programme? Have you considered @rhulpir.bsky.social ? You can find a list of our programmes at www.royalholloway.ac.uk/research-and... <- MSc Elections, Campaigns and Democracy w/ Adv. Quant Methods taught by @caprosser.com wd be my pick

royalholloway.ac.uk

Postgraduate taught

Innovative degree programmes with superb teaching and excellent research credentials

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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉 It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters Link👇 & results 🧵

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries & UK gilts reflect borrowing costs for those governments. Here's how UK and US government 10 yr borrowing costs have trended over the past 3 months. Without checking - which one is the world's strongest economy and which is the country apparently in a crisis?

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Conor Gaughan @conorgaughan.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Really cool work by @chanret.bsky.social and @vlazarov.bsky.social! Speaking of left-right positions of UK MPs, it turns out that their social media followership is also an extremely effective way of generating ideology estimates too 👇👀👇 doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Left-right positions of UK MPs in the last parliament (2019-24)

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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

How (economically) left- or right-wing is your MP? A new dataset and interactive website can tell you... www.mpsleftright.co.uk (🧵, 1/12)

mpsleftright.co.uk

Survation/Royal Holloway estimates of MP positions

Site allowing you to compare the positions of MPs on the left-right dimension

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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

📣 NEW PAPER KLAXON 📣 "Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implications of the Elections Act 2022" With Ed Fieldhouse, @caprosser.bsky.social, @jack-bailey.co.uk, @jonmellon.bsky.social (@britishelectionstudy.com) Just published at Parliamentary Affairs: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

Title page of our new paper, the abstract for which reads:

The Elections Act 2022 requires voters to present photo identification at general elections in Great Britain and local elections in England. In this article, we use data from the British Election Study Internet Panel to identify who does and does not own the necessary photo documents and how this affected turnout in the 2023 and 2024 local elections, as well as the 2024 General Election. We find that around 5% of the voting-age population lack valid voter identification and that this is related to age, education, socio-economic status, and social grade. The data also give us a reliable indication of the party-political impact of the photo ID requirement. We find that conservative voters are more likely to hold valid photo identification than supporters of other parties. We also find that a small but significant proportion of registered voters (between 1.2% and 2.4%) reported either being turned away or dissuaded from voting at these elections because of the requirement.

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Thomas Stubbs @thomstubbs.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Start pack of Royal Holloway Politics & International Relations academic staff and PhD students! go.bsky.app/EyuS68d

go.bsky.app

Royal Holloway Politics & International Relations

Join the conversation

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Aine Bennett @ainebennett.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

In what honestly feels like a huge victory for PhD student organising, after 3 years we finally just received an email saying that we'll be moving to an office with windows next month!!! 🌞😎☀️ being relentless pains in everyone's neck works!! 🪟🪟🪟🪟

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Dimiter Toshkov @dtoshkov.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

The 12 types of Political Science paper. What's missing #polsci?

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Jon Mellon @jonmellon.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

Out now open access at @ajpseditor.bsky.social. 194 potential exclusion-restriction violations for studies using weather as an instrumental variable onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

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Sarah de Lange @sldelange.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Just to make sure that our new generation of researchers does not get less attention than more senior scholars, I have made a starter pack with PhD researchers in Political Science go.bsky.app/MYHYycU

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Aine Bennett @ainebennett.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

📢Calling frontline migrant support services📢 Does your organisation work supporting migrants? Do you want more resources when you encounter gender and sexuality in that work? 👩👨🧑‍🦱🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ We have 100 physical copies of the training workbook for you - get in touch for a copy 👓 1/

A photograph of a pile of booklets on a white background with the words "negotiating gender and sexuality in frontline migrant support services on the cover" with two open copies next to the pile. The titles on the open copies are "reproducing norms" and "activity 2: service offerings"

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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 08/11/2024

Now the dust has settled a little, I’d like to tell you about a new paper I have that: 1️⃣ Solves a long-standing problem in electoral studies 2️⃣ Links political metrics & information theory 3️⃣ Introduces a 2nd “root rule” of elections Let me walk you through it 👇

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 22/10/2024

A good read from Nate Cohn on diverse sources of polling error, but I think a more useful contribution would be to say "If we under-estimate Trump, here's the likely reasons why" and "If we under-estimate Harris, here's the likely reasons why" www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/u....

nytimes.com

Two Theories for Why the Polls Failed in 2020, and What It Means for 2024

To make polling better, you have to figure out what went wrong in the first place.

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PIR at Royal Holloway @rhulpir.bsky.social · 18/10/2024

Thinking about doing a PhD in Politics and International Relations? Royal Holloway is part of SEDarc which offers studentships to cover tuition fees and a £21,237 per annum stipend for 3.5 years - apply by 7th Jan 5pm www.royalholloway.ac.uk/studying-her...

royalholloway.ac.uk

South East Doctoral Training Arc (SEDarc)

SEDarc Student-led Studentships

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 18/10/2024

Labour’s First 100 Days: Our Qualitative Panel Has Their Say. Goodwill continues amongst Labour swing voters despite winter fuel payment and ongoing gift scandal. www.survation.com/labours-firs...

survation.com

Labour’s First 100 Days: Our Qualitative Panel Has Their Say | Survation

Goodwill continues amongst swing Labour voters despite winter fuel payment and ongoing gift scandal Despite the ongoing backlash against policies such as means-testing the winter...

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Neil Kaye @neilrkaye.bsky.social · 17/10/2024

We use 30 year averages to show climatology (average weather conditions). During the 20th century the UK climatology followed a path around a confined box. With #globalwarming and #climatechange they have escaped out the box. This #dataviz shows UK rainfall and temperature.

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