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Ballot Box Scotland

@ballotbox.scot
9.8K followers 4 following 2.9K posts

Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights. Donate; liberapay.com/ballotboxscot

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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 24/09/2026
Note: I am on holiday from now until the 19th of October! I will not be able to report on the results of the three by-elections due whilst I'm away, or on any polling that comes out in that time. If things could otherwise be as quiet and boring a possible, I'd take that as a personal favour.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 22/09/2026
New article: Local Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disaster There is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.
ballotbox.scot
Local Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disaster
There is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
This by the way is why it is moronic in the extreme for this to be starting from a position of "we must cut costs" and thus an absolute refusal to institute two tiers independent of one another, rather than starting from "how we do we improve local democracy" and then accepting that entails £££
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026
The suggested scope of this is actually pretty good - scale of regions fits my New Municipalism Lite model, "community" level the OG version - but I am very concerned by the idea of double-jobbing the same people as regional and local councillors www.gov.scot/publications...
gov.scot
Public sector reform: proposal
Scottish Government proposal for reform of local governance
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/09/2026
Scottish Labour leadership election result: Michael Marra (North East Scotland): 4266 (63.2%) Joe Fagan (South Scotland): 2485 (36.8%)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
With just weeks to go before the seat could just lie vacant until May's elections, we're unfortunately still racking up the by-elections following the death of sitting councillors. In Dumfries and Galloway, Annandale East and Eskdale Labour councillor, Archie Dryburgh, has sadly just passed.
dumfriesandgalloway.gov.uk
Council Pays Tribute to Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE | Dumfries and Galloway Council
Dumfries and Galloway Council is deeply saddened by the death of Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE, a much-respected colleague who devoted many years of his life to public service and to the communities ...
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
By-Election Result: Avondale and Stonehouse A relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Result: Avondale and Stonehouse
A relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026
Avondale and Stonehouse (S. Lan) BE, 1st prefs (vs 2022): SNP: 1025 (27.6%, -0.8) LAB: 743 (20%, +0.2) RUK: 727 (19.6%, new) CON: 393 (10.6%, -10) LD: 357 (9.6%, new) GRN: 303 (8.2%, +1.8) IND: 107 (2.9%, new) Your: 45 (1.2%, new) ADF: 12 (0.3%, new) (Non-returns 24.8%) SNP elected stage 9.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/09/2026
By-election today for South Lanarkshire's Avondale and Stonehouse; tossup between the SNP and Labour in my view. Also features a special guest star candidate in one of the people who beat me in 2017, without which, Ballot Box Scotland would never have come to be!
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026
An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/09/2026
By-election set for the 29th of October. I'm back for that one! Philand was easily the most popular candidate (beats SNP by 15% in a head-to-head), so this one's a tough call, not least as lots of his votes would have transferred to Donnie MacMillan, who lost in 2022 and also died earlier this year.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/09/2026
Once again asking why, in the year 2026, Scotland had an election for which every result was publicly "oooh, mystery box! secret! can't tell you what happened except at the overall constituency level!" and then most of our neighbours are just like "hello here's a livemap" www.svt.se/datajournali...
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026
Here it is: the Lite version of my New Municipalism project. There's an opportunity for local government reform that nobody expected, but it needs to be genuinely local and democratic. Informal and thus unaccountable regionalisation and mergers won't cut it. newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot/lite
newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot
NM Lite – New Municipalism Scotland
When I’ve published successive versions of New Municipalism, it’s always been with the understanding that I was presenting a somewhat utopian vision with little prospect of implementation. Wholesale…
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 11/09/2026
Isn't that lovely, and so informative, wow, truly an Adequately Designed For Its Purpose map of the 2026 Holyrood election results, perfect for an MSP office, for a talking point in the living room, or even to really get chat going in the barber shop!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 09/09/2026
The most important part of any project is picking nice colours (I mean I picked these two years ago for the previous New Municipalism release, but I'm enjoying them again as I beaver away on my opportunity-seizing NM Lite report)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026
Love to get home from a long day of doing policy work in the office to, err, do different policy work at home... aiming to write this whole thing up by the end of the weekend, for those interested - and if you are interested, raise it with your MSPs, in the context of Public Service Reform activity!
Summary
•	Local government in Scotland is hugely oversized compared to the European average. Denmark, with a comparable population in half the area, has 98 local councils.
•	Yet at the same time, existing local councils are too small for meaningful strategic service design and delivery. Returning to the Danish example, it also has 4 regional councils.
•	Local government is an essential component of a healthy democracy. In designing local government structures, the core considerations should be how best to represent local communities and where governing powers best lie. Designing primarily to achieve administrative cost savings will inevitably lead to poor outcomes.
•	There is an opportunity arising from the 2026 Programme for Government to undertake meaningful reform, but the signals from the Scottish Government are concerningly hostile to genuine local governance and democratic oversight.
•	No reform to the structure of local government, including the proposals in this paper, can be successful without accompanying fundamental reform to an outdated, unfair, and thoroughly unfit for purpose system of local taxation.
•	Scotland should return to the general model of the Local Government (Scotland) Act 1973, but balanced towards slightly more local district councils, and taking into account demographic and technological changes in the decades since.
•	In designing such a system, insofar as is possible and practical, consideration should be given to how to strengthen existing and historic local identities and connections.
•	The example proposals set out in this paper consist of:
o	85 District Councils, which would deal with the most local issues such as leisure, parks, refuse collection, and some aspects of housing.
o	8 Regional Councils covering those 85 Districts, which would deal with more strategic issues such as health, social care, education and transport.
o	3 Single Authority Councils, covering Scotland’s highly distinctive Islands communities, which would exercise the functions of both District and Regional councils.
•	Regardless of legal administrative boundaries, all local government bodies should be allowed and enabled to jointly develop and deliver services where they wish, allowing cost savings to arise from back-office functions without removing democratic oversight.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026
By-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026 The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026
The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/09/2026
The Holyrood 6 plus two independents for the Midstocket and Rosemount by-election, including regular Aberdeen candidate Simon McLean who I am only realising in hindsight was perhaps surprisingly absent in George Street and Harbour - loves an Aberdeen by-election this lad.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Green Lauren Bird, SNP Jeff Diack, Conservative Freddie John, Independent Simon McLean, Reform UK John McLeod, Independent Kusum Singal, Lib Dem Sandy Stephen, Labour Willie Young

Vacating is SNP, 2022 winner is SNP, runner-up Labour, margin of 1.9%. Cause is the death of Bill Cormie (SNP). By-election is on the 8th of October. Prediction is SNP - Labour tossup.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026
Whup, had missed the date for this one - it's due up on the 8th of October. I will still be on holiday, so I won't be able to report on results when they come in!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026
By-Election Result analysis: Portobello and Craigmillar The Greens win only their second ever by-election, and having done so, alarm bells should be ringing for the SNP in the capital.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Result: Portobello and Craigmillar
The Greens win only their second ever by-election, and having done so, alarm bells should be ringing for the SNP in the capital.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026
Something I was working on anyway for these purposes, since it's not helpful just to moan, was a re-jigging of my New Municipalism project proposals for a return to a Region-and-District model. Left are those originals, which are pretty maximalist. Right is a pared down, more realistic version.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026
*banging head against the desk* We already have obscenely few! Denmark has 98! Norway has... 369? Finland is similar to Norway! Slovakia has over *2000*! Why are we in the UK so utterly, utterly hostile to local democracy? "We want efficiency savings" is peak cost of everything, value of nothing!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/09/2026
Four months on from the election I should probably make a move on updating my living room decor...
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/09/2026
By-Election Result analysis: Southside and Newington Labour strengthen their hold with a best-ever result for any party in this ward, the Greens improving but not enough for this ward.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Result: Southside and Newington
Labour strengthen their hold with a best-ever result for any party in this ward, the Greens improving but not enough for this ward.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 04/09/2026
Edinburgh's by-elections were particularly strong examples of how different the demographics of postal vs in person voters are: e.g. in Portobello and Craigmillar, the Greens' in person share almost doubled from 19.5% to 37.8%, but their postal share only went up from 10.7% to 13.0%
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 04/09/2026
Portobello Craigmillar (Edinburgh) by-election 1st prefs: GRN: 1781 (28%, +11.8) SNP: 1531 (24.1%, -13.3) LAB: 1413 (22.2%, -1.7) RUK: 569 (8.9%, new) CON: 522 (8.2%, -7.1) LD: 365 (5.7%, +1.4) SFP: 73 (1.1%, new) Worker: 58 (0.9%, new) ADF: 28 (0.4%, new) Commie: 22 (0.3%, new) Green win stage 10
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 04/09/2026
Southside Newington (Edinburgh) by-election 1st prefs: Lab: 2153 (32.1%, +8) GRN: 1978 (29.5%, +6.4) SNP: 757 (11.3%, -7.9) CON: 717 (10.7%, -6.9) LD: 543 (8.1%, -8) RUK: 305 (4.5%, new) EELP (x3): 94 (1.4%, new) IND: 63 (0.9%, new) Commie: 46 (0.7%, new) Family: 38 (0.6%, new) ADF: 12 (0.2%, new)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 03/09/2026
By-Election Preview: Forth and Endrick (Stirling) 1st of October 2026 A potentially close contest between the Conservatives and SNP for a by-election may be more use for predicting May's results: might Labour lose their councillor to Reform or the Greens?
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Forth and Endrick (Stirling) 1st of October 2026
A potentially close contest between the Conservatives and SNP for a by-election may be more use for predicting May's results: might Labour lose their councillor to Reform or the Greens?
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 03/09/2026
Two Edinburgh by-elections today. Portobello and Craigmillar is likely to go to the SNP, but worth watching both the Green and Conservative votes; the former for if they cross 20%, the latter for how badly they crash in what could be a preview of a Central Belt evaporation next year.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Portobello and Craigmillar (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026
The SNP are likely to emerge victorious here not because of their own support, but because a healthy Green performance will set up a generous flow of transfers to them.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 03/09/2026
Two Edinburgh by-elections today. Southside and Newington is a key test for the Greens - can they win a ward they must have done at Holyrood at local level too, and with the support that would be necessary to get two councillors next May?
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Southside and Newington (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026
The Greens are well positioned for their second-ever by-election win here, which will also be a key test to show whether they have the support for two councillors in one ward next May.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 02/09/2026
By-Election Preview: Wick and East Caithness (Highland) 1st of October 2026 All by-elections are unique, sure, but there's a recent pattern in much of the Highlands: if you're betting on a party, go for the Lib Dems, but never write off an Independent.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Wick and East Caithness (Highland) 1st of October 2026
All by-elections are unique, sure, but there's a recent pattern in much of the Highlands: if you're betting on a party, go for the Lib Dems, but never write off an Independent.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/09/2026
The full Holyrood 6 plus an Independent for the Forth and Endrick by-election. Had a very nice cycle through a portion of this ward yesterday, it was abuzz with by-election activity (not really)
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Green Andrew Adam, Independent Robert Davies, SNP Mhairi Duncan, Labour Paul Godzik, Conservative Katie Harrison, Lib Dem James MacLaren, Reform Jeremy McDonald.

Vacating is Conservative, 2022 winner is Conservative, runner-up SNP, margin of 0.15%. Cause is the death of Paul Henke (Conservative). By-election is on the 1st of October. Prediction is Conservative-SNP Tossup.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/09/2026
An Independent and 4 of the Holyrood 6 for the Wick and East Caithness by-election; as is common in this part of the country, no Labour or Green candidates.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Independent Dave Buchanan, Lib Dem Julie Calder, SNP John Glen, Conservative Charlotte Gibson, Reform UK Iain Richmond

Vacating is Independent, 2022 winner is Lib Dem, runner-up SNP, margin of 17.6%. Cause is the resignation of "AI" Willie MacKay. By-election is on the 1st of October. Prediction is Lib Dem - Independent Tossup.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/09/2026
Some rumours that the Programme for Government may include allowance for local authorities to merge. Before usual ill-informed "does a country Scotland's size need 32 councils" narrative fires up again, a reminder: Denmark has 98, for same population, in half the area, and those are largest in EU!
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 27/08/2026
New Scottish Independence poll, Survation 13-24 Aug (changes vs 17-23 Apr): Yes ~ 47% (nc) No ~ 43% (nc) Don't Know ~ 9% (-1) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): Yes ~ 52% (nc / +4) No ~ 48% (nc / -4)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 27/08/2026
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 13-24 Aug (vs 14-21 April): SNP ~ 34% (+3) LAB ~ 19% (nc) RUK ~ 18% (-3) CON ~ 11% (+1) LD ~ 8% (nc) GRN ~ 5% (-2) RST ~ 4% (+4) First time Restore have featured in a Scotland-only poll
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 27/08/2026
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 13-24 Aug (vs 2026 Election - first poll since then!): List: SNP ~ 31% (+4) RUK ~ 18% (+1) LAB ~ 17% (+1) CON ~ 12% (nc) LD ~ 11% (+2) GRN ~ 9% (-5) Constituency: SNP ~ 37% (-1) RUK ~ 18% (+2) LAB ~ 17% (-2) CON ~ 11% (-1) LD ~ 10% (-1) GRN ~ 5% (+3)
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 25/08/2026
Forth and Endrick set for the 1st of October; again, I will be on holiday so won't be able to report the outcome on the day! 2022 was extremely close between the Conservatives and SNP (0.2% after transfers), who've both suffered since, but no other likely winner here, so, a tossup between the two?
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, Conservative 36.1, SNP 35.2, Labour 14.0, Independent 7.8, Lib Dem 5.7, Family 1.1Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Conservative 42.1, SNP 41.9, Didn't Transfer 16.0Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. Conservatives led in districts covering Gargunnock, Killearn, Croftamie, Drymen and Balmaha. SNP led in districts covering Kippen, Buchlyvie, Fintry, Balfron, and Strathblane.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/08/2026
Popped on to the National's podcast yesterday - covered a fair few things, but no surprise given recent events and ongoing leadership contest, that Scottish Labour featured highly. Spoiler: if you write off young people, social liberals and SNP voters... who is left to appeal to?
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 20/08/2026
This is a phenomenal example of why I told these people to sling their hooks when asked to make some regular appearances after I'd been on once. What is being claimed here about the science and medicine is a partisan, personal view, not one actually backed up by evidence.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/08/2026
And another late term by-election due in sad circumstances following the death of Mid Argyll Independent councillor (and Argyll and Bute Provost) Douglas Philand
westcoasttoday.co.uk
Tributes paid to Mid Argyll councillor and Provost Dougie Philand
Douglas Trevor Philand, known to many as Dougie, served the Mid Argyll area as a local councillor for 19 years and latterly held the office of Provost of Argyll and Bute.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/08/2026
By-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026 An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door.
ballotbox.scot
By-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026
An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/08/2026
I know it bothers some that after years of scrupulous impartiality I have started pointing out how despicable some of Scottish Labour's behaviour is but, one, human rights and dignity matter more and two, there remain (precious few) folk in the party saying so too. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Lennon criticises 'nasty' Scottish Labour as leadership bid fails
Michael Marra and Joe Fagan secured enough to support to run to replace Anas Sarwar.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/08/2026
By-election also upcoming for Aberdeen's Midstocket and Rosemount ward, following the death of SNP councillor Bill Cormie, who'd been serving since 2007.
thenational.scot
SNP councillor dies as tributes paid to 'passionate champion of local communities'
AN SNP councillor who “put his heart and soul” into championing his local community for almost 20 years has died, his colleagues have confirmed…
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/08/2026
The Holyrood 6, plus an Independent, "Alliance for Democracy and Freedom", and Your Party's electoral debut in Scotland - presumably, their candidate hasn't noticed that ship has sailed due to the landlocked nature of the ward.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Conservative Ade Aibinu, Your Party Gary Allan, Independent Andrew Forde, Lib Dem David Glennie, Green Michael Grant, Reform UK George Hobbins, Labour Hannah Miller, SNP Leigh Payne, Alliance for Democracy and Freedom Ken Thomson.

Vacating is Independent, 2022 winner is Labour, runner-up SNP, margin of 3.5%. Cause is the death of Margaret Cooper (Independent). By-election is on the 17th of September. Prediction is Labour-SNP Tossup.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/08/2026
MSP and MP nominations closed for Scottish Labour Leadership election; it's a Blokes Ballot as Monica Lennon fell one MP short of qualifying. Marra: 31 total - 7 MSPs, 24 MPs Fagan: 12 total - 5 MSPs, 7 MPs Lennon: 5 total - 3 MSPs, 2 MPs No Nomination: 6 total - 2 MSPs, 4 MPs
ballotbox.scot
Scottish Labour Leadership Election 2026
Background Fresh from their sixth Holyrood election on the trot of losing seats, Scottish Labour are headed into a brutal leadership election that simultaneously everyone expected but no one knew …
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/08/2026
11 votes for our regular Edinburgh Vanity Candidate on his Clacton sojurn: 1 more vote than the number of signatures required to get in the ballot in the first place. Not to worry though, he's standing in Southside and Newington ward by-election in 3 weeks time, so another chance to win, eh?
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/08/2026
Avondale and Stonehouse by-election is on the 17th of September. Excluding Cooper in 2022, Labour go on to beat the SNP by 3.5%; neither of those parties are doing great right now but no other credible winners, so probably a tossup between them. Worth watching Conservative and Green shares.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 28.4, Independent 23.7, Conservative 20.6, Labour 19.9, Green 6.4, Alba 1.1Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 40.9, SNP 37.4, Didn't Transfer 21.6Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. Independent Cooper led in district covering Glassford. SNP led in every other district including Strathaven, Stonehouse, Chapelton and Drumclog.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/08/2026
Summer Special: It's time everyone got serious about the Scottish Greens A long read on a bugbear: few folk seem to care about understanding the Greens, and that failure has cost them over and over again. Following a record result, will that change, or will people just howl "BIAS!" at me?
ballotbox.scot
Summer Special: It’s time everyone got serious about the Scottish Greens
The months following May's transformational Scottish Parliament election have been an oddly quiet time for Scottish politics. Some of that has been down to the usual summer recess, of course, but a large part of it is that the oxygen has been taken up by events at Westminster. There hasn't been the space to properly reflect on how different Scottish politics is going to be for the next five years.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/08/2026
The piece I mention drafting here is finally nearly done (out this weekend?) as I've been lazy, but went back to this Herald article and also want to highlight this bit of "BBS gets things spot on"; the answer was ~24.5% (excluding R&C seat, and including an estimate of Cardonald vote)!
Even in their traditional Achilles heel of First Past the Post Westminster elections this year’s result was easily their best ever, if modest compared to other parties. Those unable to contextualise have mischaracterised this as a deathly blow, but ask yourself this: if for example 2.8% in Glasgow in 2015 was followed by 10.2% across the city in 2016, what does 9.4% under FPTP in 2024 presage for a proportional ballot in 2026?
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/08/2026
Wick and East Caithness by-election set for the 1st of October. I, alas, will not be covering the results of this one when they come out because I will instead be cutting about *checks schedule* Lake Taupō.
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