Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 24/09/2026Note: I am on holiday from now until the 19th of October! I will not be able to report on the results of the three by-elections due whilst I'm away, or on any polling that comes out in that time. If things could otherwise be as quiet and boring a possible, I'd take that as a personal favour. 2423
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 22/09/2026New article: Local Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disaster There is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad.ballotbox.scotLocal Government reform done for the wrong reasons will be a disasterThere is a kernel of positivity in the Scottish Government's plans, but let's be frank: if they fully get their way, they will destroy local democracy entirely. Yes, it's that bad. 23018
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026This by the way is why it is moronic in the extreme for this to be starting from a position of "we must cut costs" and thus an absolute refusal to institute two tiers independent of one another, rather than starting from "how we do we improve local democracy" and then accepting that entails £££ 2191
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/09/2026The suggested scope of this is actually pretty good - scale of regions fits my New Municipalism Lite model, "community" level the OG version - but I am very concerned by the idea of double-jobbing the same people as regional and local councillors www.gov.scot/publications...gov.scotPublic sector reform: proposalScottish Government proposal for reform of local governance 3215
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/09/2026Scottish Labour leadership election result: Michael Marra (North East Scotland): 4266 (63.2%) Joe Fagan (South Scotland): 2485 (36.8%) 4176
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026With just weeks to go before the seat could just lie vacant until May's elections, we're unfortunately still racking up the by-elections following the death of sitting councillors. In Dumfries and Galloway, Annandale East and Eskdale Labour councillor, Archie Dryburgh, has sadly just passed.dumfriesandgalloway.gov.ukCouncil Pays Tribute to Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE | Dumfries and Galloway CouncilDumfries and Galloway Council is deeply saddened by the death of Councillor Archie Dryburgh MBE, a much-respected colleague who devoted many years of his life to public service and to the communities ... 093
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026By-Election Result: Avondale and Stonehouse A relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Avondale and StonehouseA relatively close contest saw the SNP triumph over Labour and Reform positioned for a councillor next May, over crashing Conservatives and a poor Green result. 0117
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/09/2026Avondale and Stonehouse (S. Lan) BE, 1st prefs (vs 2022): SNP: 1025 (27.6%, -0.8) LAB: 743 (20%, +0.2) RUK: 727 (19.6%, new) CON: 393 (10.6%, -10) LD: 357 (9.6%, new) GRN: 303 (8.2%, +1.8) IND: 107 (2.9%, new) Your: 45 (1.2%, new) ADF: 12 (0.3%, new) (Non-returns 24.8%) SNP elected stage 9. 54410
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/09/2026By-election today for South Lanarkshire's Avondale and Stonehouse; tossup between the SNP and Labour in my view. Also features a special guest star candidate in one of the people who beat me in 2017, without which, Ballot Box Scotland would never have come to be!ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door. 3182
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/09/2026By-election set for the 29th of October. I'm back for that one! Philand was easily the most popular candidate (beats SNP by 15% in a head-to-head), so this one's a tough call, not least as lots of his votes would have transferred to Donnie MacMillan, who lost in 2022 and also died earlier this year. 193
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/09/2026Once again asking why, in the year 2026, Scotland had an election for which every result was publicly "oooh, mystery box! secret! can't tell you what happened except at the overall constituency level!" and then most of our neighbours are just like "hello here's a livemap" www.svt.se/datajournali... 5356
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 12/09/2026Here it is: the Lite version of my New Municipalism project. There's an opportunity for local government reform that nobody expected, but it needs to be genuinely local and democratic. Informal and thus unaccountable regionalisation and mergers won't cut it. newmunicipalism.ballotbox.scot/litenewmunicipalism.ballotbox.scotNM Lite – New Municipalism ScotlandWhen I’ve published successive versions of New Municipalism, it’s always been with the understanding that I was presenting a somewhat utopian vision with little prospect of implementation. Wholesale… 94511
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 11/09/2026Isn't that lovely, and so informative, wow, truly an Adequately Designed For Its Purpose map of the 2026 Holyrood election results, perfect for an MSP office, for a talking point in the living room, or even to really get chat going in the barber shop! 23410
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 09/09/2026The most important part of any project is picking nice colours (I mean I picked these two years ago for the previous New Municipalism release, but I'm enjoying them again as I beaver away on my opportunity-seizing NM Lite report) 1141
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026Love to get home from a long day of doing policy work in the office to, err, do different policy work at home... aiming to write this whole thing up by the end of the weekend, for those interested - and if you are interested, raise it with your MSPs, in the context of Public Service Reform activity! 1307
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/09/2026By-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026 The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Midstocket and Rosemount (Aberdeen) 8th of October 2026The sad passing of a long serving SNP councillor sets up a fierce contest with Labour, where the Conservatives could bar the latter's way, and which the Greens will also be watching closely. 0135
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/09/2026The Holyrood 6 plus two independents for the Midstocket and Rosemount by-election, including regular Aberdeen candidate Simon McLean who I am only realising in hindsight was perhaps surprisingly absent in George Street and Harbour - loves an Aberdeen by-election this lad. 0157
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026Whup, had missed the date for this one - it's due up on the 8th of October. I will still be on holiday, so I won't be able to report on results when they come in! 2160
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026By-Election Result analysis: Portobello and Craigmillar The Greens win only their second ever by-election, and having done so, alarm bells should be ringing for the SNP in the capital.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Portobello and CraigmillarThe Greens win only their second ever by-election, and having done so, alarm bells should be ringing for the SNP in the capital. 33812
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026Something I was working on anyway for these purposes, since it's not helpful just to moan, was a re-jigging of my New Municipalism project proposals for a return to a Region-and-District model. Left are those originals, which are pretty maximalist. Right is a pared down, more realistic version. 64814
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/09/2026*banging head against the desk* We already have obscenely few! Denmark has 98! Norway has... 369? Finland is similar to Norway! Slovakia has over *2000*! Why are we in the UK so utterly, utterly hostile to local democracy? "We want efficiency savings" is peak cost of everything, value of nothing! 148120
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/09/2026Four months on from the election I should probably make a move on updating my living room decor... 3351
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/09/2026By-Election Result analysis: Southside and Newington Labour strengthen their hold with a best-ever result for any party in this ward, the Greens improving but not enough for this ward.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Result: Southside and NewingtonLabour strengthen their hold with a best-ever result for any party in this ward, the Greens improving but not enough for this ward. 2173
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 04/09/2026Edinburgh's by-elections were particularly strong examples of how different the demographics of postal vs in person voters are: e.g. in Portobello and Craigmillar, the Greens' in person share almost doubled from 19.5% to 37.8%, but their postal share only went up from 10.7% to 13.0% 3233
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 04/09/2026Portobello Craigmillar (Edinburgh) by-election 1st prefs: GRN: 1781 (28%, +11.8) SNP: 1531 (24.1%, -13.3) LAB: 1413 (22.2%, -1.7) RUK: 569 (8.9%, new) CON: 522 (8.2%, -7.1) LD: 365 (5.7%, +1.4) SFP: 73 (1.1%, new) Worker: 58 (0.9%, new) ADF: 28 (0.4%, new) Commie: 22 (0.3%, new) Green win stage 10 14713
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 04/09/2026Southside Newington (Edinburgh) by-election 1st prefs: Lab: 2153 (32.1%, +8) GRN: 1978 (29.5%, +6.4) SNP: 757 (11.3%, -7.9) CON: 717 (10.7%, -6.9) LD: 543 (8.1%, -8) RUK: 305 (4.5%, new) EELP (x3): 94 (1.4%, new) IND: 63 (0.9%, new) Commie: 46 (0.7%, new) Family: 38 (0.6%, new) ADF: 12 (0.2%, new) 12910
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 03/09/2026By-Election Preview: Forth and Endrick (Stirling) 1st of October 2026 A potentially close contest between the Conservatives and SNP for a by-election may be more use for predicting May's results: might Labour lose their councillor to Reform or the Greens?ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Forth and Endrick (Stirling) 1st of October 2026A potentially close contest between the Conservatives and SNP for a by-election may be more use for predicting May's results: might Labour lose their councillor to Reform or the Greens? 2154
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 03/09/2026Two Edinburgh by-elections today. Portobello and Craigmillar is likely to go to the SNP, but worth watching both the Green and Conservative votes; the former for if they cross 20%, the latter for how badly they crash in what could be a preview of a Central Belt evaporation next year.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Portobello and Craigmillar (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026The SNP are likely to emerge victorious here not because of their own support, but because a healthy Green performance will set up a generous flow of transfers to them. 02510
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 03/09/2026Two Edinburgh by-elections today. Southside and Newington is a key test for the Greens - can they win a ward they must have done at Holyrood at local level too, and with the support that would be necessary to get two councillors next May?ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Southside and Newington (Edinburgh) 3rd of September 2026The Greens are well positioned for their second-ever by-election win here, which will also be a key test to show whether they have the support for two councillors in one ward next May. 2249
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 02/09/2026By-Election Preview: Wick and East Caithness (Highland) 1st of October 2026 All by-elections are unique, sure, but there's a recent pattern in much of the Highlands: if you're betting on a party, go for the Lib Dems, but never write off an Independent.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Wick and East Caithness (Highland) 1st of October 2026All by-elections are unique, sure, but there's a recent pattern in much of the Highlands: if you're betting on a party, go for the Lib Dems, but never write off an Independent. 0125
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/09/2026The full Holyrood 6 plus an Independent for the Forth and Endrick by-election. Had a very nice cycle through a portion of this ward yesterday, it was abuzz with by-election activity (not really) 283
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/09/2026An Independent and 4 of the Holyrood 6 for the Wick and East Caithness by-election; as is common in this part of the country, no Labour or Green candidates. 043
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 01/09/2026Some rumours that the Programme for Government may include allowance for local authorities to merge. Before usual ill-informed "does a country Scotland's size need 32 councils" narrative fires up again, a reminder: Denmark has 98, for same population, in half the area, and those are largest in EU! 118426
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 27/08/2026New Scottish Independence poll, Survation 13-24 Aug (changes vs 17-23 Apr): Yes ~ 47% (nc) No ~ 43% (nc) Don't Know ~ 9% (-1) Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014): Yes ~ 52% (nc / +4) No ~ 48% (nc / -4) 36124
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 27/08/2026New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 13-24 Aug (vs 14-21 April): SNP ~ 34% (+3) LAB ~ 19% (nc) RUK ~ 18% (-3) CON ~ 11% (+1) LD ~ 8% (nc) GRN ~ 5% (-2) RST ~ 4% (+4) First time Restore have featured in a Scotland-only poll 3248
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 27/08/2026New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 13-24 Aug (vs 2026 Election - first poll since then!): List: SNP ~ 31% (+4) RUK ~ 18% (+1) LAB ~ 17% (+1) CON ~ 12% (nc) LD ~ 11% (+2) GRN ~ 9% (-5) Constituency: SNP ~ 37% (-1) RUK ~ 18% (+2) LAB ~ 17% (-2) CON ~ 11% (-1) LD ~ 10% (-1) GRN ~ 5% (+3) 1185
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 25/08/2026Forth and Endrick set for the 1st of October; again, I will be on holiday so won't be able to report the outcome on the day! 2022 was extremely close between the Conservatives and SNP (0.2% after transfers), who've both suffered since, but no other likely winner here, so, a tossup between the two? 2103
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 21/08/2026Popped on to the National's podcast yesterday - covered a fair few things, but no surprise given recent events and ongoing leadership contest, that Scottish Labour featured highly. Spoiler: if you write off young people, social liberals and SNP voters... who is left to appeal to? 26323
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 20/08/2026This is a phenomenal example of why I told these people to sling their hooks when asked to make some regular appearances after I'd been on once. What is being claimed here about the science and medicine is a partisan, personal view, not one actually backed up by evidence. 17320
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/08/2026And another late term by-election due in sad circumstances following the death of Mid Argyll Independent councillor (and Argyll and Bute Provost) Douglas Philandwestcoasttoday.co.ukTributes paid to Mid Argyll councillor and Provost Dougie PhilandDouglas Trevor Philand, known to many as Dougie, served the Mid Argyll area as a local councillor for 19 years and latterly held the office of Provost of Argyll and Bute. 065
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/08/2026By-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026 An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door.ballotbox.scotBy-Election Preview: Avondale and Stonehouse (South Lanarkshire) 17th of September 2026An Independent-caused vacancy is likely to come down to an SNP-Labour contest, as Reform are unlikely to be as strong as they were next door. 0127
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 18/08/2026I know it bothers some that after years of scrupulous impartiality I have started pointing out how despicable some of Scottish Labour's behaviour is but, one, human rights and dignity matter more and two, there remain (precious few) folk in the party saying so too. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukLennon criticises 'nasty' Scottish Labour as leadership bid failsMichael Marra and Joe Fagan secured enough to support to run to replace Anas Sarwar. 17128
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/08/2026By-election also upcoming for Aberdeen's Midstocket and Rosemount ward, following the death of SNP councillor Bill Cormie, who'd been serving since 2007.thenational.scotSNP councillor dies as tributes paid to 'passionate champion of local communities'AN SNP councillor who “put his heart and soul” into championing his local community for almost 20 years has died, his colleagues have confirmed… 2114
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/08/2026The Holyrood 6, plus an Independent, "Alliance for Democracy and Freedom", and Your Party's electoral debut in Scotland - presumably, their candidate hasn't noticed that ship has sailed due to the landlocked nature of the ward. 2113
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 17/08/2026MSP and MP nominations closed for Scottish Labour Leadership election; it's a Blokes Ballot as Monica Lennon fell one MP short of qualifying. Marra: 31 total - 7 MSPs, 24 MPs Fagan: 12 total - 5 MSPs, 7 MPs Lennon: 5 total - 3 MSPs, 2 MPs No Nomination: 6 total - 2 MSPs, 4 MPsballotbox.scotScottish Labour Leadership Election 2026Background Fresh from their sixth Holyrood election on the trot of losing seats, Scottish Labour are headed into a brutal leadership election that simultaneously everyone expected but no one knew … 7188
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/08/202611 votes for our regular Edinburgh Vanity Candidate on his Clacton sojurn: 1 more vote than the number of signatures required to get in the ballot in the first place. Not to worry though, he's standing in Southside and Newington ward by-election in 3 weeks time, so another chance to win, eh? 3142
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 13/08/2026Avondale and Stonehouse by-election is on the 17th of September. Excluding Cooper in 2022, Labour go on to beat the SNP by 3.5%; neither of those parties are doing great right now but no other credible winners, so probably a tossup between them. Worth watching Conservative and Green shares. 092
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 08/08/2026Summer Special: It's time everyone got serious about the Scottish Greens A long read on a bugbear: few folk seem to care about understanding the Greens, and that failure has cost them over and over again. Following a record result, will that change, or will people just howl "BIAS!" at me?ballotbox.scotSummer Special: It’s time everyone got serious about the Scottish GreensThe months following May's transformational Scottish Parliament election have been an oddly quiet time for Scottish politics. Some of that has been down to the usual summer recess, of course, but a large part of it is that the oxygen has been taken up by events at Westminster. There hasn't been the space to properly reflect on how different Scottish politics is going to be for the next five years. 37534
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 06/08/2026The piece I mention drafting here is finally nearly done (out this weekend?) as I've been lazy, but went back to this Herald article and also want to highlight this bit of "BBS gets things spot on"; the answer was ~24.5% (excluding R&C seat, and including an estimate of Cardonald vote)! 182
Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 05/08/2026Wick and East Caithness by-election set for the 1st of October. I, alas, will not be covering the results of this one when they come out because I will instead be cutting about *checks schedule* Lake Taupō. 6224