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James Breckwoldt

@jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social
692 followers 220 following 453 posts

Research Manager @focaldata.bsky.social jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com

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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
How should a candidate tell their "story" in an election? David v Goliath is a very powerful story archetype and has been for millennia. When you look, the most successful campaigners usually use a version of it. FDR, Obama, Trump, Thatcher, Blair and now Jon Ossoff. Some weekend reading for you:
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
How Campaigners Can Sell Their "Story" in an Election
How political campaigners can turn themselves into the underdog good guy, their opponent into a powerful bad guy and their cause into a fight people care about.
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
How should a candidate tell their "story" in an election? David v Goliath is a very powerful story archetype and has been for millennia. When you look, the most successful campaigners usually use a version of it. FDR, Obama, Trump, Thatcher, Blair and now Jon Ossoff. Some weekend reading for you:
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
How Campaigners Can Sell Their "Story" in an Election
How political campaigners can turn themselves into the underdog good guy, their opponent into a powerful bad guy and their cause into a fight people care about.
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Laura Serra @lauraserra.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Fresh off the press from me in @uk.theconversation.com: why reforming the triple lock may not be as electorally mad as some have made out – and why it's one of the few issues where young and old broadly agree 👇 theconversation.com/plans-to-tam...
theconversation.com
Plans to tamper with the pension triple lock might not be as dangerous for Labour as some believe
Young and old voters aren’t actually that divided over the triple lock.
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Finally able to share a bit of exciting professional news - I will be one small part of a big new team headed up by @olliheath.bsky.social taking over the @britishelectionstudy.com from next year. Lots of exciting stuff to come soon! www.royalholloway.ac.uk/about-us/new...
royalholloway.ac.uk
New team, led by Royal Holloway, awarded leadership of the British Election Study to understand British democracy
Royal Holloway, King's College London and the University of Manchester have been awarded £4.9 million by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) to lead the British Election Study (BES).
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
An interesting thing that came out of researching this article was how much Thatcher framed the purpose of her policies as defending people from being pushed around or told what to do by the powerful who were abusing their position. Here she is on Right To Buy in 1982:
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Which is not too dissimilar in framing and tone to FDR in his 1936 re-election speech:
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
How does a candidate sell their "story" in an election? Story theory shows that "David vs Goliath" is incredibly powerful and has been for millennia. When you look, the most successful campaigners usually use a version of it. It was used by FDR, Obama, Trump, Thatcher, Blair and now Jon Ossoff.
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Election Campaign Storytelling: Heroes vs Villains
How political campaigners can turn themselves into the underdog good guy, their opponent into a powerful bad guy and their cause into a fight people care about.
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
How does a candidate sell their "story" in an election? Story theory shows that "David vs Goliath" is incredibly powerful and has been for millennia. When you look, the most successful campaigners usually use a version of it. It was used by FDR, Obama, Trump, Thatcher, Blair and now Jon Ossoff.
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Election Campaign Storytelling: Heroes vs Villains
How political campaigners can turn themselves into the underdog good guy, their opponent into a powerful bad guy and their cause into a fight people care about.
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026
Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024
Screenshot showing interactive ward level MRP estimates at the 2024 UK general election.
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This is a great article and I think accurately gets at the place the Lib Dems are in electorally. Highly recommended lunch time reading 👇
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Matthew Price @matthewbprice.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I was really stuck at Lib Dem Conference by how frustrated members are with the party’s lack of a clear identity. So I’ve written about why that’s actually a good thing.
pollingstation.substack.com
The Lib Dems’ Strategy is Working, Actually
But its members aren’t happy about it
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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Me on why: - Ed Davey was a lot better campaigner than Keir Starmer - "You can't vote Conservative because they're posh" has never worked and will never work - Robert Kenyon's incredibly well-optimised backstory didn't save him - Margaret Thatcher and Andy Burnham are like Thelma and Louise
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Election Campaign Storytelling: Motivation & Backstory
How political campaigners can make people understand what you want, why you want it and why it matters.
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Me on why: - Ed Davey was a lot better campaigner than Keir Starmer - "You can't vote Conservative because they're posh" has never worked and will never work - Robert Kenyon's incredibly well-optimised backstory didn't save him - Margaret Thatcher and Andy Burnham are like Thelma and Louise
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Election Campaign Storytelling: Motivation & Backstory
How political campaigners can make people understand what you want, why you want it and why it matters.
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Everyone in politics seems to agree that politicians need to “tell a story”. But what actually makes a story compelling? And what can political campaigns learn from people who write them for a living? First lesson: you need a clear motivation (but a compelling backstory matters far less).
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Motivation & Backstory: What political campaigns can learn from film and TV
Keir Starmer and Ted Kennedy should have listened to Rocky, Tony Soprano and Thelma & Louise
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Everyone in politics seems to agree that politicians need to “tell a story”. But what actually makes a story compelling? And what can political campaigns learn from people who write them for a living? First lesson: you need a clear motivation (but a compelling backstory matters far less).
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Motivation & Backstory: What political campaigns can learn from film and TV
Keir Starmer and Ted Kennedy should have listened to Rocky, Tony Soprano and Thelma & Louise
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
When I did a survey in the UK on attitudes towards technology and economic growth, I found that Green Party and Reform UK supporters often had very similar beliefs against. Seem like something similar is the case in US public opinion. jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Why did “my father was a toolmaker” become a punchline? Why do voters happily support politicians born into enormous wealth? My new piece looks at what Rocky, Tony Soprano, Thelma & Louise and others can teach political campaigners about making a politician compelling. Read here 👇
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Motivation & Backstory: What political campaigns can learn from film and TV
Keir Starmer and Ted Kennedy should have listened to Rocky, Tony Soprano and Thelma & Louise
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
When I did a survey in the UK on attitudes towards technology and economic growth, I found that Green Party and Reform UK supporters often had very similar beliefs against. Seem like something similar is the case in US public opinion. jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Why did “my father was a toolmaker” become a punchline? Why do voters happily support politicians born into enormous wealth? My new piece looks at what Rocky, Tony Soprano, Thelma & Louise and others can teach political campaigners about making a politician compelling. Read here 👇
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Motivation & Backstory: What political campaigns can learn from film and TV
Keir Starmer and Ted Kennedy should have listened to Rocky, Tony Soprano and Thelma & Louise
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I am a man of simple but nerdy pleasures. One of these is that I find the names used for voter segmentations absolutely hilarious. The history of phrases like “Essex Man,” “Mondeo Man,” “The Red Wall”, “Waitrose Woman” and many more is a lot more interesting (and weird) than you’d think 👇
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
The Weird and Wonderful History of British Election Voter Segmentations
This "Stockport Man" outlines his ironic (and unironic) love of the a proud British election tradition
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Reposted by James Breckwoldt
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 01/09/2026
The Rainbow Vote now has a cover & publication date. www.therainbowvote.com 🗳️🏳️‍🌈 Please consider pre-ordering, or asking your institution’s library to pre-order! Insufferable self-promotion to follow but I am dutifully celebrating every milestone along the way to publication day in February 😎
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Not everything you dislike in politics is the artificial, top-down result of cynical or manipulative elites. Not everything you like in politics is the organic, bottom-up and genuine expression of what people want.
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Not everything you dislike in politics was caused by top-down factors
Motivated Causal Attribution is a political bias to avoid
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Not everything you dislike in politics is the artificial, top-down result of cynical or manipulative elites. Not everything you like in politics is the organic, bottom-up and genuine expression of what people want.
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
Not everything you dislike in politics was caused by top-down factors
Motivated Causal Attribution is a political bias to avoid
02510
Reposted by James Breckwoldt
British Voter @britishvoter.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Hi, this is the British Voter Bot. We're really proud of this latest update, which will give insight into the biggest political social survey in Britain - revealing the breadth of perspective and opinion across our country. Let us know what you think!
Introduction poster for British Voter Bot. Headline: Real British voters, one at a time. Every card on this account is one real, anonymous respondent to the British Election Study, Britain's largest survey of voters. Each card says who they are, what they think and how they'd vote, in their own answers to questions written by the BES. The views are the respondent's own, not ours. How to read a card, five rows: 1. A map of Wales with a magenta dot. The dot is where they live: each voter is drawn over their home nation, marked at their constituency. 2. A lilac speech bubble. The bubbles are their views: favourite and least favourite leader, the issues they care about, how they see their nation - each one the respondent's own answer to a BES question, not the opinion of this account, its authors or the BES. 3. A slider with a magenta dot left of centre, a black tick at the centre and a lilac band around it. The scales show where they sit: two BES 0 to 10 scales, economic left to right and social liberal to authoritarian. The tick is the centre of the scale (5); the lilac band is the voters' interquartile range. 4. A magenta block reading 2024 to today. The band is their vote: how they voted in 2024 and who they'd vote for now, coloured by the party they're backing today, grey if they're undecided or wouldn't vote. 5. 24 lilac dots, one magenta. Together, they are Britain in miniature: voters are drawn from the wave's 31,392 real respondents in proportion to BES survey weights, so the feed reflects the British adult population by age, gender, region, past vote and more. One voter, four times a day. BES Wave 31, YouGov, May-June 2026. Closing band, magenta: No one is the average voter. Taken one at a time, voters are messier - and more interesting - than any stereotype. Credits: Jacob Weinbren, @jacobweinbren.bsky.social; Lawrence McKay, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social; Chris Terry-Enescu, @cjterry.bsky.social.
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The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 20/08/2026
📢 New Data 📢 We are pleased to announce the release of Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. You can find out more information, including where to download the data, here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
britishelectionstudy.com
Release note for Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel - The British Election Study
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George Eaton @georgeeaton.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
James Graham writing a play on the life of Keynes is dream-like news. theatreweekly.com/full-cast-re...
theatreweekly.com
Full cast revealed for James Graham’s The Standard of Living in the West End - Theatre Weekly
The full cast has been announced for the world premiere of The Standard of Living, a major new play by James Graham
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president
substack.com
How Richard Nixon's life explains modern politics (Part 1)
Social class, material insecurity, status resentment, generations, media image, electoral coalitions, demography and the median voter
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SpinningHugo @spinninghugo.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
No acknowledgement of the damage he's done to 1. Trust, upon which academic life is based 2. Attempts to correct the imbalance of who gets top University jobs 3. Cambridge 4. Liverpool John Moores 5. The discipline he works in. Where he chooses to make the announcement is very appropriate.
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
“The “coalitions” that politicians talk about are, after all, composed of people, not idiots... That this coalition could be described demographically—i.e., blacks, union labor, Jews, etc.—was because demography influences attitude, not because some political boss could deliver a bloc vote."
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
"Most voters, most often, are not primarily political beings. Thus, neither New Politics, nor Old Politics, nor malaise, nor hatred is the most important thing in the lives of most American voters."
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
"Humphrey’s plight on the crime issue was exacerbated by some incredible ideological verbiage on the part of liberals... Politically, liberal Democrats should actively have been trying to separate the crime issue from the race issue; instead, they were busy as beavers linking them."
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
"[The] Middle Voter is a forty-seven-year-old housewife from the outskirts of Dayton, Ohio, whose husband is a machinist. She very likely has a somewhat different view of life and politics from that of a twenty-four-year-old instructor of political science at Yale." FAO: the entirety of Bluesky!!!
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
On this, if you ever get your hands on Richard M. Scammon & Ben J. Wattenberg's book "The Real Majority", you should read it. Their insights from 1970 are just as relevant today as they were back then. 🧵👇
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Two(!) permanent lectureships coming up at Cardiff: One in political behaviour/opinion cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52... One in British politics (very loosely defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... Feel free to get in touch and I'll be happy to answer any questions I can
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
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Richard Martin @mimosacymru.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Another fantastic entry in one of the best stacks you could subscribe to. Well worth a read over your coffee today, whether you like it black or unblack ☕️👇👇
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
On this, if you ever get your hands on Richard M. Scammon & Ben J. Wattenberg's book "The Real Majority", you should read it. Their insights from 1970 are just as relevant today as they were back then. 🧵👇
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
🚨POST BY ME & CALLUM HUNTER-DAWSON🚨 Richard Nixon’s career offers remarkably complete education in modern elections, political science, sociology, media theory, international relations, economics and so much more. This article looks at this life up to 1968 when he became president
substack.com
How Richard Nixon's life explains modern politics (Part 1)
Social class, material insecurity, status resentment, generations, media image, electoral coalitions, demography and the median voter
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Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
“McAllister and Klaveness represented their countries at times when their nations hardly represented them. McAllister was one of three women to lobby the Welsh FA to formally recognise the women’s national team in 1992.” - @lauramcallister30.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/athletic/748...
nytimes.com
Two women led the resistance to Infantino's World Cup sell-off. That matters
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Terrific and rightly angry piece this:
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George Eaton @georgeeaton.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
“Schemes such as this will keep returning in different forms as long as FIFA is structured to profit from the decisions it makes. Only institutional reform can break that cycle.” Sharp piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social for Arguably on how to fix FIFA. www.arguably.uk/p/infantino-...
arguably.uk
Infantino isn’t the problem
FIFA’s conflicting incentives are the root of this crisis – here’s how to fix them.
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/07/2026
It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Cover of *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*
By Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Christopher Prosser, Geoffrey Evans, Jack Bailey, and Jonathan Mellon
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David Porter @dcporter.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Some academics seem to be committed to proving that conservative enemies of academia are entirely right about it. I still think they aren't and that most scholars just want to ignore this shit to stay out of trouble, but that there are professional academics defending obvious plagiarism is shocking
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Jennifer Williams @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
But ultimately the *starting point* for many commentators seems to be “oh here we go again, we’re indulging those uneducated, backwards looking people in the provinces”
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Going 1-0 up in a knock out game and then sitting as deep as possible for as long as possible
youtube.com
battle plan (blackadder)
YouTube video by Sanja Maksimovic
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Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
To reiterate, the number of early career researchers in social sciences in the UK dropped by 8% in *one year* Based on what we saw in our job ads data I assume it was the same again or worse in 2025-36
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Going to be interesting to see what the other parties do in Clacton. Con are second and will doubtless fight hard Labour might prefer a Farage defeat even if Cons are the winners? Even more so for LD/Grn voters but would they be willing to vote Con? Will Restore put up a high profile candidate?
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James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
This is a great article, especially on the importance of national identity for the rise and fall of Welsh Labour Mae hon yn erthygl wych, yn enwedig ar bwysigrwydd hunaniaeth genedlaethol i dwf a chwymp Llafur Cymru
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