Sign in

James David Griffiths

@jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
692 followers 235 following 141 posts

Research Fellow at the British Election Study, Wrexham and Wales fan

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 24/09/2026
Great article by @martamiori.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social in the FT and on my favourite topic too: fragmentation! www.ft.com/content/28ea...
ft.com
Is the UK electorate fragmenting? Not so fast
The battle between Labour and the Conservatives for national dominance has given way to multiple local fights to be in the top two
183
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Great to see this out! @jaclarner.bsky.social @danielwincott.bsky.social and I found that national identity responds to referendums. The effect was temporary after the Scottish referendum, but post-Brexit the identity gap between Remain and Leave voters has grown considerably over time. 🧵
1146
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Daniel Wincott @danielwincott.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Delighted to see this paper out in the wild. Diolch yn fawr to the editors @bjpols.bsky.social to our anonymous referees and, especially, to my fantastic co-authors @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social
0115
Reposted by James David Griffiths
The British Election Study @britishelectionstudy.com · 20/08/2026
📢 New Data 📢 We are pleased to announce the release of Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel. You can find out more information, including where to download the data, here: www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorize...
britishelectionstudy.com
Release note for Wave 31 of the British Election Study Internet Panel - The British Election Study
298
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
By May 2026, Labour had lost far more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than to Reform UK, even in pro-Brexit and “marginal” areas. Reform may be competing with Labour for seats, but they are not really competing for the same voters. Short 🧵
141
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
This is work by me, Geoffrey Evans, Zack Grant, Justin Robinson. We show The Economic Insecurity Trap. Published today by @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Thanks to @benzaranko.bsky.social for seeing the importance of household experiences of economic insecurity. NEW REPORT: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit...
jrf.org.uk
The economic insecurity trap
Financial insecurity is self-reinforcing. Setbacks mean reduced planning and saving, and increasing unemployment, income loss and housing costs. Financial vulnerability is persistent and widespread an...
12612
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Joe Phillips @polpsychjoe.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
doi.org
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
1197
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
@britishelectionstudy.com Director Prof Ed Fieldhouse here explaining the Brexit realignment with insights from our new forthcoming book … please check it out! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Brexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British Politics
Brexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.
066
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
A short blog from Ed and me about the enduring role that Brexit is having on British politics!
001
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Tim Oliver @tjoliver.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
I've put together some thoughts, with the help of friends, on Andy Burnham and Northerness, for the Sunday Times. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
thetimes.com
Will Andy Burnham appeal beyond M62 if he becomes PM?
The new MP for Makerfield has become an expert at using his regional identity as a political tool. He would be the first ‘proper’ northerner in No 10 for 50 years
161
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The 2024 UK General Election had a bigger effect on national identity in Britain than Euro 2024 Sound surprising? Well, we found this as part of a paper accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social With the World Cup ⚽️ starting tomorrow, this is the perfect time to read more blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
The World Cup is coming, but does football influence national identity at home?
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
2189
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Labour lost in Wales for the first time in a century. If you want to know more about how that happened (among other things about Welsh politics), then this today's event is for you! Some really cool stuff here, from some excellent people, and its all online!
010
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
55122
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
BLOG POST: why I think the measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems is wrong, and what to do about it www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/mixed_...
chrishanretty.co.uk
The measurement of disproportionality in mixed member systems – chris hanretty
I introduce an extension of the Sainte-Laguë index which allows for the calculation of disproportionality in mixed member systems. The index is based on the joint distribution of votes cast across bot...
61812
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Lawrence McKay @lawrencemckay.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
⏰ CALL FOR PAPERS - EPSS PRE-CONFERENCE WORKSHOP ON PLACE, POLITICS AND EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY ⏰ Submit by Weds 20 May! For all those interested in politics of geographic divides and keen to explore impact potential of their work. More info/submit here: shorturl.at/xS0iS @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social
shorturl.at
EPSS pre-conference: “Place, Politics, and Evidence-Based Policy”
In this pre-conference workshop we bring together researchers who study the role of place in politics, and we want to focus particularly on how we (can) make impact on policies and public debates with...
11921
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
All change! The 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
26345
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Richard Wyn Jones @richardwynjones.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Llongyfarchiadau mawr i griw @yougov.co.uk ac i griw @itvcymruwales.bsky.social a @walesgovernance.bsky.social sy'n gweithio hefo nhw. Big up the whole YouGov team and the associated ITV/Wales Governance Centre teams! yougov.com/en-gb/articl...
yougov.com
YouGov’s was the most accurate seat projection of the 2026 Welsh Senedd election
YouGov correctly predicted a historic shift in Welsh politics, with Labour’s dominance overturned by a Plaid Cymru and Reform UK surge
03011
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
As services to the field go, this is a truly exceptional effort
030
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.
2164
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Will 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏳️‍🌈 @willdv2002.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
🚨NEW BLOG🚨 With polls opening in less than 24 hours, I thought it would be good to look over the kind of information environment voters would be operating in in Wales! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Uncertainty and Asymmetry: Electoral Understanding in the 2026 Senedd Election
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
11511
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Daniel Wincott @danielwincott.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Some wider thoughts on this research. A (not so) wee 🧵. The UK experienced a series of high stakes events between 2014 and 2020. Thanks to @britishelectionstudy.com for asking a pre and post referendum NatID question. Without panel data on this q, we could never have known about this change. 1/n
183
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇
Long-term change in British identity across three model specifications. In all models Remain voters show a drop in Britishness. In two of the three Leavers also show a drop in Britishness but this is smaller
12010
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Daniel Wincott @danielwincott.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Delighted this paper is coming out in the @bjpols.bsky.social Working with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and @jaclarner.bsky.social is a pleasure and privilege. (Anyone who gets the chance to work with either should grab it with both hands!) Diolch to my coauthors, the BJPS editors and our referees.
0103
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
🚨 New Research Recently accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social, our paper shows that Brexit led to weaker British 🇬🇧 identities among Remainers! You can read the paper by @jaclarner.bsky.social, me, and @danielwincott.bsky.social here: tinyurl.com/mrj96ywu
tinyurl.com
Dropbox
13714
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!
youtube.com
How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever
YouTube video by ITV News
66929
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
So proud of all our hard work on this! Watch until the end for a data-packed overview of the fragmented context in which these local elections are taking place – and what next week's results might mean for Labour and the Conservatives.
1105
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Daniel Wincott @danielwincott.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
See @richardwynjones.bsky.social for further and better particulars on the coming fall of Welsh Labour (and Labour Wales) nation.cymru/feature/wale...
nation.cymru
Wales and Welsh politics after Labour hegemony
Richard Wyn Jones As readers of Nation.Cymru, you won’t need me to remind you – the result of Thursday’s Senedd election is very much in the balance. The polls suggest that it’s too close to call in t...
041
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
95431
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Newydd gan @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social am heriau etholiadol y Blaid Lafur yng Nghymru o flaen etholiad #Senedd26 | New from Dr James Griffiths about the Labour Party's electoral challenges ahead of the Welsh Parliament election in May. #Wales #Cymru blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
043
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
11813
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇
125029
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
On leaders, Rhun ap Iorwerth is favourite for First Minister in head to head comparisons, with caveat that a clear majority just aren't sure Will be doing some more on next few days on attitudes to government formation and issues with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social
054
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Dr @jaclarner.bsky.social ar Sharp End neithiwr yn trafod pôl piniwn diweddaraf @YouGov / @itvcymruwales.bsky.social Dr Jac Larner on ITV Sharp End last night discussing the latest Barn Cymru poll. Full programme link below 👇 #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
154
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
33935
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Barely 2 per cent of Britons belong to a political party. Yet this tiny, unrepresentative minority helps decide who gets selected to stand for Parliament, who gets to lead our parties and, ultimately, who gets to govern the country. So who are they? journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
195929
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Perfect if you want to know more about the upcoming Welsh election!
022
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Lotte Hargrave @lottehargrave.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics. We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵 theconversation.com/late-decider...
theconversation.com
Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters
High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.
21418
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely. electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...
electionsetc.com
Things continue to go badly for Labour
By Stephen Fisher, 27 February 2026 Yesterday Labour lost the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election. This was a constituency were they took 50.8% of the vote at the 2024 general ele…
21711
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs! Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!): youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...
1177
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Here's a table in the new @britishelectionstudy.com book (forthcoming). We calculated 'second preferences' - here Labour voters after elections 2015 to 2024. 50% of Labour's 2024 voters had Greens as second preference. 42% the Lib Dems. The left bloc is coalescing behind the most viable left party!
24221
Reposted by James David Griffiths
James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨 New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of: 1) bottom-up public demand 2) elites are neglecting it 3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it tinyurl.com/44ryyybc 🧵
31713
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs! labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi... If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
labourlist.org
'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList
Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.
178
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 than 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 or 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right
234
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:
1236
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Lotte Hargrave @lottehargrave.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.
24119
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
github.com
GitHub - jaclarner/Cardiff-YouGov_Dec25: Repository for simple cross tabs and raw data (.csv) for Cardiff University/YouGov December 2025 Data
Repository for simple cross tabs and raw data (.csv) for Cardiff University/YouGov December 2025 Data - jaclarner/Cardiff-YouGov_Dec25
01010
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Will Hayward - Wales Journo @willhaycardiff.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures. [Thread]
411251
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Daniel Wincott @danielwincott.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇 blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
084
James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 NEW BLOG Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why? @jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs! blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
34929
Reposted by James David Griffiths
Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Are Reform at their ceiling? @martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch. We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability. Link here: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
0102