Sign in

Chris Prosser

@caprosser.com
1.9K followers 567 following 332 posts

Political scientist | Co-director British Election Study | Election number crunching for ITV | Trustee McDougall Trust caprosser.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/09/2026
Critics of proportional representation: 'Yes, yes, I know that in reality politics under first-pass-the-post has been chaotic for the last decade, but in theory it provides stable two-party government, and that's what matters'.* * Not actually true in theory either.
Screenshot of newspaper article saying: 'Critics of proportional representation have said it would lead to a more chaotic form of government, with unstable coalitions and an inability to pass legislation.'
2275
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026
Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024
Screenshot showing interactive ward level MRP estimates at the 2024 UK general election.
75726
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 17/09/2026
I’m at @psaepop.bsky.social #EPOP2026 in Liverpool for the next few days, presenting papers on: 1. The bloc structure of British voting behaviour (Friday 14:10-15:40, LT 3) 2. The urban-rural divide in British politics (16:00-17:30, Flex 1) Quick summaries of both below ⬇️
173
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 04/09/2026
Maybe it's true of other organisations as well but I'm always amazed by how unwilling universities seem to be to do something about people who basically don't do their jobs.
1132
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 10/08/2026
Working with some government data of locations *in the UK* that contains two points in the sea to the west of Denmark and three off the east of Somalia. Feeling good about the cleanliness of my own data 😂
040
Reposted by Chris Prosser
The Week in Polls @theweekinpolls.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Do opinion polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? buff.ly/4zkxUWY
buff.ly
Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties?
This time, I’m taking a look at some new evidence about the accuracy of opinion polls.
063
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
33221
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
33221
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/07/2026
It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Cover of *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*
By Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Christopher Prosser, Geoffrey Evans, Jack Bailey, and Jonathan Mellon
13013
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 20/07/2026
'At this rate I'll beat mummy's record of 15 different PMs by the time I'm 93'
040
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Why did class voting in Britain rise, then decline? @olliheath.bsky.social, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott & @caprosser.com examine elections from 1885-2024, arguing political agency explains class dealignment better than social change. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/klGDUJz @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
buff.ly
The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024 - Oliver Heath, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott, Christopher Prosser, 2026
Understanding when and why social cleavages shape electoral behaviour is a central concern in the study of democratic politics. While many accounts emphasise th...
044
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Today's absolute must-read for anyone studying/interested in British electoral and party politics over the long term. (Oh, and I'm pretty sure this is indeed a British street despite the classic Citroen in the foreground)!
theconversation.com
The class divide in British politics didn’t erode slowly – it collapsed under New Labour
But the shift has more to do with how parties behave than any changes in the class system.
9187
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Why did class voting in Britain rise, then decline? @olliheath.bsky.social, Humphrey Southall, Paula Aucott & @caprosser.com examine elections from 1885-2024, arguing political agency explains class dealignment better than social change. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/klGDUJz @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social
Abstract
Understanding when and why social cleavages shape electoral behaviour is a central concern in the study of democratic politics. While many accounts emphasise the long-term social changes, others point to the role of party strategy. We contribute to this debate by analysing the political evolution of one of the central cleavages of the twentieth century—class—in one of the world’s longest-standing democracies—Britain. Analysing a unique new dataset combining constituency-level results across 37 general elections from 1885 to 2024 with data from eight censuses, applying geospatial redistricting methods, we describe the rise, stability and eventual decline of class-based voting, showing that a strong class cleavage emerged in the early twentieth century, remained stable for decades, but then unravelled rapidly after the 1990s. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with theories that emphasise gradual social change and are more consistent with accounts that stress political agency and representation.
0165
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 19/06/2026
New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social: The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024 We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain doi.org/10.1177/0032...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
22212
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 19/06/2026
New paper from me, Olli Heath, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott, just out in @polstudies.bsky.social: The rise and fall of class voting in Britain, 1885–2024 We link ~140 years of census and election data to map the relationship between class and vote in Britain doi.org/10.1177/0032...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
22212
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 10/06/2026
Sometimes its hard to escape the feeling that someone in government has built a model of how policies might affect economic growth but accidently flipped the sign on the output.
151
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/05/2026
Really delighted to be joining the editorial board of West European Politics - an excellent journal and home to one of my first publications as a grad student and my series of articles on the 2015-24 UK general elections - in excellent company too!
0111
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 14/05/2026
Miliband was neither especially popular nor unpopular - average feelings towards him during the 2017 election campaign were pretty similar to mid-2017-campaign Corbyn, 2024 Starmer, and 2019 Johnson.
Smoothed estimates of average feelings towards Conservative and Labour leaders during the 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2024 election campaigns.
76215
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 11/05/2026
We need a democratic big bang, just like the economic one in the 80s: real local politics with autonomy, discretion, and tax-raising powers; proportional representation across the board; an elected upper chamber. All of our other problems are downstream of that. Just grab the bloody nettle.
3154
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 20/04/2026
The charity I'm a trustee for is looking for new trustees to join our board. The McDougall Trust is the independent charity that promotes public understanding of electoral democracy. See the link for more details and how to apply. www.mcdougall.org.uk/news/39/38/M...
mcdougall.org.uk
McDougall Trust - News
156
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 15/03/2026
Now, I'm no foreign policy genius, but surely the EU suggesting EU students should pay the same fees as home students should not have come as a complete surprise given it was the status quo until six years ago...? www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Row over tuition fees cut for European students threatens Starmer’s EU reset
British negotiators ‘blindsided’ by Brussels’ demand for a reduction that could cost universities £140m a year
100
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 13/03/2026
All of my work will be published in top journals. The only thing prohibiting publication in those journals right now is the reviewers shooting it down. It will be published in those journals should reviewers not do that.
0133
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 13/03/2026
In the year of our lord, 2026, an academic journal has gone from accepting .tex file submissions, to only accepting word documents... (Between an original and R&R submission 🤬).
3143
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 10/03/2026
This is an interesting provocation, and I think David is right that electoral reformers shouldn't just assume that the only (or best) electoral reform is PR. There are two parts to the argument: 1. Majoritarianism > PR 2. If Majoritarianism, then two round elections I disagree with both bits.
240
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 14/02/2026
UK Poll of Polls, 14 February 2026 Reform: 29% (27-31%) Labour: 20% (18-22%) Conservative: 19% (17-20%) Greens: 14% (13-16%) Lib Dem: 12% (11-14%) Other: 3% (3-4%) SNP: 3% (2-3%)
1117
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 12/02/2026
Brushing up on some reading for a research ethics workshop I'm running in a couple of weeks and perhaps getting a little carried away...
160
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 09/02/2026
Sounds like excellent research and I will not be asking any probing questions about causal identification at this time.
A couple of teas or coffees a day could lower risk of dementia, scientists say
1101
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 09/02/2026
This is fun, even if the British Media, Politics, and Policy cluster is hanging out on the edge of the galaxy.
000
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/01/2026
An 'archaic' procedure such as one of the central planks of the British constitution, which establishes the supremacy of the Commons over the Lords...
Guardian headline:

Assisted dying backers could use archaic procedure to bypass ‘undemocratic’ block by peers
Exclusive: MPs backing bill to use ‘nuclear option’ of 1911 Parliament Act if it continues to be blocked by Lords
2124
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 14/01/2026
I bet the author is a British person living in Australia, because my petty gripe is that in Australia you can get a flat white in many sizes (and could 20 years ago when I started drinking coffee there) whereas in Britain people insist it can only be one size. www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...
theguardian.com
My petty gripe: a large flat white is an oxymoron – a bastardisation of the drink Australia gave the world
The integrity of the flat white is being diluted by size inflation. It’s a sign that most people have no idea what they really want at all
010
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 14/01/2026
'Immediate reject' is a new peer review option to me... does it mean 'wow this is bad, don't even read my report just hit the reject button'?!?
392
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 08/01/2026
Procrastinating from writing something by analysing the number of peer reviews I do. Not sure if my new website made me more visible, or getting something into APSR made me look like a serious person, but 2025 was apparently the year journal editors remembered who I was again.
120
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 03/12/2025
The main thing I'm taking away from this is that more of you should listen to Olivia Chaney, so if you like indie folk, give her a listen!
130
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 02/12/2025
Lately, I have been reading lots of early 20th century literature; now I want to use semi-colons in everything I write; I feel sad they have fallen into disuse.
230
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 21/11/2025
Adversarial Poetry sounds like a great research genre. Would definitely read studies of the effect of adversarial poetry on political persuasion, adversarial poetry and affective polarisation, adversarial poetry and misinformation. So many possibilities 😆
020
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 18/11/2025
Never mind twitter and chat gpt, the cloudflare outage seems to have taken down doi.org!
120
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 17/11/2025
Not at all relevant to the actual discussion about this, but I remember being really impressed by the Boix paper when I read it as a grad student, whereas now every time I see it I can't get past the fact that in the 1990s you could get an N=22 OLS into the APSR.
1130
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 13/11/2025
Well with this news I'm almost certainly never going to get round to doing a proper version of the 'there's no relationship between change in crime and PCC voting' paper that's been on the back burner for nine years...
150
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 13/11/2025
Currently in the early stages of a global 'please remove me from this mailing list' reply-all catastrophe 😱
150
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 06/11/2025
I mention the Hall, Ariss and Todorov study of basketball betting (more information -> worse performance) in the slides for one of my pol psych lectures, and now the powerpoint designer wants to illustrate the slide with some basketballs, which certainly creates an interesting juxtaposition... 😂
020
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 04/11/2025
I fell down a typographical rabbit hole last week and made my own R Markdown template. Quite pleased with how it looks, so take a look, and if you like it too, feel free to use it! Package here: github.com/drcaprosser/... Full explanation/example here: github.com/drcaprosser/...
4240
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 16/10/2025
Does it though...
030
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 09/10/2025
Nothing says 'boost productivity' like policies designed to make people more tired and hungover. www.theguardian.com/business/202...
theguardian.com
Pubs to stay open until early hours in push for UK growth
Exclusive: Plans for England and Wales would help the ailing hospitality sector but have attracted criticism from health experts
170
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 07/10/2025
This is great - had always wondered if the telephone call thing was *actually* how they found out they'd won. In the unlikely event that I won a Nobel prize I'd probably see an unknown international number, assume it was scam, and block it.
Newspaper headline:
Nobel committee unable to reach prize winner who is ‘living his best life’ hiking off grid
Fred Ramsdell was among those honoured with a 2025 Nobel Prize in Medicine but might not know because he is somewhere in Idaho and uncontactable
1100
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 07/10/2025
Judging by the number of review request I've had lately, I see you all had a more productive summer than I did 😐
010
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 07/10/2025
A conclusion reached by a well justified causal research design no doubt, and not just seeing there's a correlation and asserting the causality runs in one direction... 🤔
Newspaper headline saying: 
Enjoying international cuisines makes people more tolerant, UK study finds
Frequent and varied eating found to reduce likelihood of perceiving immigrants as ‘cultural or economic threats’
3322
Reposted by Chris Prosser
Andreu Casas @andreucasas.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
🚨Hiring a fully funded (3.5 years) PhD for the @ldnsocmedobs.bsky.social to research social media and politics. Candidates should have quantitative/computational skills and/or be interested in content curation/moderation. UK home candidates only unfortunately. www.royalholloway.ac.uk/media/hquftp...
royalholloway.ac.uk
1414
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 23/09/2025
Just spotted this excellently ironic typo in the acknowledgements of a paper I was reading 😂
A snippet of the acknowledgements section of a journal article in which the author has thanked the reviewers for their attention to detail, but misspelled 'attendtion'
1121
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 16/09/2025
I made a little R package to handle the faff of assigning party names to party colours when making plots about British elections in ggplot. I made it for myself, but if you're someone that also works on British politics and uses R, you might also find it useful! github.com/drcaprosser/...
github.com
GitHub - drcaprosser/gbpartyscales: Map common party-name synonyms to canonical Great Britain parties and provide ggplot2 colour, fill, shape, and linetype scales with standard labels and sensible leg...
Map common party-name synonyms to canonical Great Britain parties and provide ggplot2 colour, fill, shape, and linetype scales with standard labels and sensible legend orderings. Includes a helper ...
1102
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 11/09/2025
Today in 'I'm sure this is a well identified causal effect and definitely not in any way a spurious correlation, can't think of any potential confounding variables at all' 🤔
Newspaper headline saying 'Girls who play after-school sport in UK 50% more likely to later get top jobs, study finds'
1260