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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Hegseth must just hate JD Vance

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

Context: bsky.app/profile/pkli...

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 5h

There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...

AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).

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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 5h

what i think is currently up in the AI space since we're having cost arguments again: selling inference is very profitable, but models are improving so fast that there's no time for capex on model training to amortize, so net at this rate they're losing money which is why they want a cartel

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 6h

Finally, Pew's review of synthetic samples (previewed at AAPOR in May) is out.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 9h

Please say that full schedule will be announced in advance so that someone can construct a plausible set of matched districts as a control and field a daily tracking survey across treatment and control districts

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 9h

Really amazing that Colorado, which was a swing state in recent memory, doesn't have a single public poll of its open-seat race for governor this year—which could prove to be an epic blowout that has major ramifications downballot.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 9h

I'm genuinely curious which districts he's in / which candidates want to campaign with him. The midterm convention went ... poorly

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 11h

Even some GOP pollsters (well, Kristen Soltis Anderson) get it www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/o...

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David R. Brockman, Ph.D. @drdrbrockman.bsky.social · 12h

Update: The America.gov chatbot now refuses to answer "political" questions or offer "judgments about past elections" 🤔

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Annie Waldman @anniewaldman.bsky.social · 12h

NEW: As Trump’s White House and influencers keep touting the unproven benefits of raw milk, hundreds across the country are falling ill from outbreaks. Some people get severe indigestion. And some nearly die. Here's the story of one toddler who drank it. 🧵👇 www.propublica.org/article/cali...

propublica.org

A Girl Nearly Died After Drinking Raw Milk. The State Did Little to Punish the Unlicensed Farmer Who Sold It.

California is teeming with black-market dairies, propped up by consumer demand fueled by misinformation. With evidence against one raw goat milk farm, regulators could have sought punitive action. But...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 23h

I genuinely don't understand how they think those text messages proved ... anything

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 23h

The AI slop videos were probably a more effective medium of a persuasion than a 26 page letter

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Using these numbers and a probabilistic model of turnout would make LVs more like D+12.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

See, it is possible to produce a useful, AI-related sankey diagram www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Jeff Liszt @liszt.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I'm not being paid by @kwcollins.bsky.social to say this, but it's a good idea to have TTW in the mix.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here's the average bias of non-probability sample (Cint) surveys in 3 states in 2024, vs. Text to web in those same three states (three elections in each state), from research we presented at AAPOR in 2025. Yes every non-prob (and for that matter, every text to web) vendor is different, but still

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Interesting use of surveys as public engagement. The JLG campaign is using canvassers to go door to door to encourage Washingtonians to take it, so this isn't just idle talk www.jotform.com/form/2623749...

jotform.com

Take the People's Survey!

Please click the link to complete this form.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

We're still hiring at Survey 160 in business development roles, more info below

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I recommend future Trump nominees consult it before their Senate hearings

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 29/09/2026

And seconds after I tweeted this, YouGov dropped at +15 share.google/XXGidaPTwIZb...

share.google

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Make college costs for Zoomers what they were for Boomers, and fund using sales of spectrum bandwidth bsky.app/profile/kwco...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Remember how RFK Jr said covid vaccines would be available to families who want them? Well, there still are no vaccines available for kids under 12

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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

we are watching our future get so much more expensive

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Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

One note about this, because I was curious: remarkably, the state-level explanatory power of Google searches for testosterone and Trump vote survives controls for education, income, and rurality.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Going with "men insecure in their own masculinity also support Trump" as the explanation

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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Aldis are more common than Costco in rural areas, and rural areas have older populations than urban/suburban areas; familiarity may explain these generational differences.

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Rachel Maddow @maddow.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Step 1: "Tether’s stablecoin has become a primary means of payment for the Iranian regime and a tool for funding terrorist proxy organizations such as Hezbollah..." Step 2: Now google Howard Lutnick and Tether www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

wsj.com

Exclusive | Senate Investigation Finds Rampant Use of Tether’s Stablecoin by Iranian Regime

Wallets sanctioned over Iran ties overwhelmingly dealt in Tether’s USDT stablecoin, according to Senate Democrats.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I didn't realize the "Costco Dad" demo with which I emphatically identify was so specifically a Millennial thing yougov.com/en-us/articl...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I'm sorry, this is too online. Don't write ads to get likes on Bluesky (specifically)

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 28/09/2026

The Privatize-Losses-Not-Just-Gains Challenge levels Common sense: High Economic sense: High Difficulty: High (due to corruption)

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is theft of your tax dollars

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

No need to buy them when you've already stolen the F-35 parts

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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 27/09/2026

Women trying to succeed in Silicon Valley AI and effective altruist spaces are reporting feeling serious social pressure to attend sex parties - where people have reported being sexually assaulted, like below. Events like Aella’s “Slutcon,” which is happening again this weekend.

Ann Pierce
@itsannpierce
20h
I am disheartened by this as well. I already lost a bunch of followers for agreeing with @tautologer, but it's saddening to see local nerdy women being caricatured as Karen-like outsiders and getting pushed out of the scene. This is exactly why you hear so few concrete, names-attached stories of sexual harrassment and assault. I'm told there is a history of discrediting these because the "slut normalization" thing is top priority and these stories get inconveniently in the way of spreading this ideology.
I got roped into attending last year's Saturday Slutcon party because so many local and out-of-town friends were there (to echo sentiments @tautologer expressed about "slut events becoming central to the larger scenes). Mostly I hung out with people I knew and that was great. But in the course of my 3-ish hours there, there were 2 times my "no" was not accepted by a man I didn't know, and I was physically pushing a huge guy off of me who was rubbing his penis on me, who continued to do it despite my physical force against him, and after I finally wriggled away from him, told him I wanted to dance alone etc., he came back and did it again.
This was scary and bad, but it didn't even cross my mind to report this because one of the other people who didn't accept my "no" earlier in the night was the bartender (an officially sanctioned authority at the event), and I knew the event was organized exclusively by women into CNC (who are vocal about how rapey behavior turns them on), so I figured this sort of thing would just get me laughed at. And anyway, I heard there were a lot of other incidents like it. Later though, someone encouraged me to report this story to the organizers, and despite my embarrassment I did, so *they know* that this and other incidents happened. This is why they cut the Saturday night party this year and created a larger training program for the flirt girls - *because* of things like this last year. Yet the narrative bein…

People who haven't been to Slutcon are saying "it's just group therapy," "it's just innocent flirting." But the environment is much like a sex party in that many people are nude, there is making out and sex acts happening out in the open. I think it's pretty unreasonable to expect that every nerdy girl who likes rationalist bloggers or is into EA/AI safety should automatically be comfortable with this! That if she's not, there's something wrong with her, we don't want her in our scenes, etc.
Not to mention, it's explictly an event *for men*, where men are the clients and the "flirt girls" are the product. Last year I overheard an exchange where a man felt "led on" by a flirt girl and was trying to get her punished/kicked out. (A dynamic that seems inevitable in this context!)
Anyway- it does sound like they've upped their consent education a lot this year, are more organized, and that's good! As I've told my friends who are attending: I hope they have fun!
I heard several accounts last year of women who had no problems and really enjoyed the event. That's great!
Just... can we live in reality about this? There are real reasons why male-female sexual dynamics are tricky.
Encouraging autistic men who can't yet read body language to go around asking to see womens' boobs is maybe a bit ill-advised. Maybe not everyone should be/identify as a slut; maybe it's not for everyone.
And yeah, filtering the Bay Area Al safety scene down to only women who are super comfy with this eliminates *most* women - including many of the really smart, nerdy, weird women who've been in the larger scenes for years. What a loss for humanity.
I absolutely understand why people with a minority sexuality would want to create belonging, would want to create spaces for people like themselves. But why do it like this/at this cost?

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Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

that's uh not great

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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

How do voters actually decide whether and for whom to vote in midterm elections, and why do some voters seem to take so long to make their choice? (@sfcpoll.bsky.social) 🎁Gift article: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

washingtonpost.com

The Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm elections

Plus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate?

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Making political organizing epiphenomenal to social organizing is how social movements go the distance

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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I can’t remember. What do you call it when the state owns the means of production?

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Even if the bots were sentient OpenAI should be understood to be liable, as agents of the company. If human employees (and whose sentience is not in serious question) did the same the company would be liable

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Anonymous @youranoncentral.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

New York Times confirms reports that, days before Oct. 7, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major attack. According to five former senior Israeli officials, Netanyahu never passed the warning to Israel.

yacnews.com

New York Times sources back Haaretz report that UAE president warned Netanyahu before 7 October

Five former senior Israeli officials told the Times the warning never reached Israel's security chiefs. Netanyahu denies the call and has ordered lawyers to sue Haaretz.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Hearing rumors of some very quick reserve activations to deploy to Middle East; anyone else hearing this?

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Sanho Tree @sanho.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Happy Stanislav Petrov day! He saved the world from nuclear annihilation on this day in 1983. My freshman year in college would have been so much worse without his courage.🧵

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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 25/09/2026

Will AI give us a shared basis for political knowledge, or will Democrats and Republicans end up asking increasingly different chatbots? New preprint: We find a self-reinforcing loop that can pull AI models apart politically. We call it the Centrifugal Alignment Spiral 🧵 arxiv.org/pdf/2609.28486

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JW Mason @jwmason.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

This is the master key to deciphering contemporary debates about free speech. www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2026/se...

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Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ @poqjournal.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Convenience or quota-based sampling for surveys? Christenson et al. assessed the potential pitfalls of convenience sampling in an expansive cross-national study, yet found a striking amount of consistency across platforms. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

What's the *best* hiring heuristic you've ever heard of, non-coffee edition?

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Dana Houle @danahoule.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility that Tuberville is in a close race against Doug Jones & asked Trump to campaign for him.

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