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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW: Where will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? Initial reactions to the PM’s speech in a poll of 1,548 adults in the UK interviewed in the hours after the speech on 29 September on behalf of Mandate Research 🧵1/9

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

If you are headed to the Labour Party Conference and would like to catch up, or just want to be briefed on our pre conference research, go here for details: eepurl.com/F2ohRItFCX

eepurl.com

Latest Data Briefing: MRP, tactical voting and Labour Conference

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Who’s in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility. Survation analyst @pjstock.bsky.social rolls through the changed electoral reality and what that means for looking past the “raw” MRP numbers: www.survation.com/whos-in-seco...

survation.com

Who's in Second Place? Estimating Tactical Voting in an Era of Extreme Volatility: | Survation

In 2024, most top two contests were Labour vs Conservatives – now it’s Labour vs Reform In 2024, almost half of all seats were Labour–Conservative...

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Aside from the 7pm clash with @Channel4News, for me the special value of @BBCNewsnight is specifically the time slot - late at the end of the day - so there's time to fold in late breaking news and perspectives - a 7pm Friday slot adds nothing to a news junkie...

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Despite excitable coverage of tonight’s AfD result in Saxony-Anhalt, the outcome was broadly in line with polling across the east. This is the AfD’s strongest region, not a proxy for Germany - nationally AfD poll in the mid-20s - tonight tells us little that’s new about the west or Germany broadly.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

It’s gone full silly season in the Survation press office:

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 24% (-3) LAB 24% (+5) CON 21% (+1) LD 11% (-1) GRN 11% (=) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 2% (=) OTH 4% (=) F/w 10-14 July 2026. Changes vs 17/06/2026

Graphic showing Westminster VI with Labour and Reform both at 24%

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

We are currently looking to hire a project manager with some level of market research experience to start as soon as we find the right candidate. Do get in touch with me if you’d like to work at Survation. Email: careers@survation.com We’ll also have a proper job spec out soonish.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Journalist on Times Radio just now saying the polls in Makerfield are too small to be meaningful and unless someone paid for a 10 (Ten) THOUSAND sample they couldn’t say much. Then launched into some anecdotal comments about what he’s hearing in the doors and confirming that those trends were *real*

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

I fear Labour people risk falling into an ecological fallacy visible from space when reacting to these results. Here is what is very clear in results so far: Labour are losing *seats* to Reform, but... Labour are losing *votes* to the Greens Greens split the vote, Ref comes thru middle

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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

Given how voters usually respond instinctively negatively towards anything Starmer does, these seem like pretty good numbers for him

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

This is not a robust way to assess the potential of a new party, the “new entry” is given prominence vs the alternatives - so what you see is more of a survey effect than a real vote intention. I imagine the % of people who even know what this party *is* is close to 1%

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 08/02/2026

Much of the pol sci analysis has positioned McSweeney as a veto player against a proper policy reset. If that's true, then Keir Starmer now has his first real opening to reset on policy lines - the question is whether he now uses it - I think we can avoid rushing to judgement.

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Allan Faulds @afaulds.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

Anyway, obviously very, very important not to be blasé about an actual armed conflict with the US, but I do genuinely think over this year the US is suddenly going to find out that "being the most powerful country in the world" is still fundamentally reliant on having allies.

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Survation October Newsletter: Long Nights, Illuminating Insights This month, we've covered Welsh politics, the Labour deputy leadership election, and much more. Read in full: shorturl.at/D7Bav Subscribe to our mailing list here: eepurl.com/mOK8P 🧵 1/6

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

Note of caution on More in Common’s MRP showing a chunky Reform overall majority. It is based on a *10pt* REF lead over LAB. The pollster’s regular VI is just a 3 pt lead. MRP is not very good at getting national shares correct and needs assistance - which does not appear to have happened here.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

Ballotbox.scot with their usual excellent coverage of our Scotland polling this week: ballotbox.scot/survation-se...

ballotbox.scot

Ballot Box Scotland

Democracy in Detail

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

Some thoughts on our new poll of Labour members on behalf of @labourlist.bsky.social: Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race: mailchi.mp/survation/ne...

mailchi.mp

NEW: Disappointed By Labour's Direction, Labour Members Turn To Lucy Powell in the Deputy Leader Race:

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Labour's Next Deputy Leader? In terms of an ideological battle, there’s likely little perceived difference between Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson. In our councillor perceptions study of MPs on economic issues (mpsleftright.co.uk), both scored near-identical results.

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention RFM 30 (+3) LAB 24 (-) CON 19 (-1) LD 11 (-2) GRN 8 (-) OTH 6 (-2) F/w 28th August- 2nd September 2025. Changes vs 2nd June. 🧵1/5

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Benedict Pringle @benedictpringle.bsky.social · 19/07/2025

Could Labour’s hope for the future be gaining tactical votes from Green & LibDem supporters? 👀 Polling guru @damiansurvation.bsky.social breaks down this strategic dilemma in the latest episode of The Political Marketing Podcast. politicaladvertising.co.uk/2025/07/19/p...

politicaladvertising.co.uk

Polling & Political Strategy: An Inside Look At What Parties Really Know About Voters

In the most recent episode of The Political Marketing Podcast I had the privilege of sitting down with Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, one of the UK’s most influential market research firms.&n…

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

Great post about the limitations of ONS data and why being governed by statistical noise is the current state of affairs!

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 15/06/2025

Signs you are getting old #342. The homemade Father’s Day cards reach political satire level:

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Where are Reform’s new voters coming from in Scotland? More than 1 in 5 Labour voters from the 2024 general election are now intending on switching to Reform, with 1 in 4 Tory voters intending on making the switch also. New analysis from Survation's Fred Power: www.survation.com/new-survatio...

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Ahead of the locals, I shared some thoughts with @alexrogerssky in that Reform could pose a real threat to Labour in "post-industrial" areas potentially receptive to a message of "protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency". news.sky.com/story/how-ni...

news.sky.com

How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour's most loyal voters - and the battle to stop him

Nigel Farage's courting of union members has alarmed the movement's leaders - and now they are plotting how to stop the Reform UK leader in his tracks.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

In by-elections, losing parties often find some solace in blaming low turnout - not so in Runcorn & Helsby. While turnout yesterday was lower than at the 2024 general election in that seat - it was still higher than in 19 other constituencies at GE 2024:

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

Consensus seat forecast for net LE seat gains (Baxter, Hayward, Freedman, Fisher, Walker, Booth). I don't know yet if we will be told this would be a "very bad night for Labour" 😉

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

NEW: How did Labour members react to the Spring Statement? Our latest poll with @labourlist.bsky.social shows: - Sharp drops in cabinet favourability - Disapproval of welfare reforms - Pessimism ahead of May’s elections @vlazarov.bsky.social breaks down the findings 🧵 Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7f0

survation.com

Labour Members React to Spring Statement with Pessimism on Policies and Electoral Prospects | Survation

Survation’s second Labour members’ poll in partnership with LabourList conducted immediately following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement shows sharp declines in leadership favourability, stro...

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

LabourList @labourlist.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

NEW: We’re excited to unveil a new partnership with @survation.bsky.social – polling Labour members among our readership. We think it’s important to highlight the full range and nuances of members’ views. Send us ideas for Qs at mail@labourlist.org. Some findings…🧵 labourlist.org/2025/03/cabi...

labourlist.org

Cabinet league tables: LabourList-Survation poll on members’ favourites - LabourList

Ed Miliband is the most liked member of the Labour Cabinet among LabourList readers, a new poll can reveal.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

@lordashcroft.bsky.social's polling in Runcorn & Helsby shows Labour have a turnout problem they will need to fix if there's any chance of squeaking a victory. Just 55% of LAB 2024 GE voters say they will definitely vote, vs 78% of REF voters and 70% of CON: lordashcroftpolls.com/2025/03/runc...

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

Maybe there is such a thing as bad publicity? Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts: www.ft.com/content/ca1c...

ft.com

Tesla’s crash back towards reality, in several charts

Rapid unscheduled share-price disassembly

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Pleased to see @politico.com’s article today “Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents” featured our new Ukraine polling - which serves as a useful reality check on Zelenskyy’s true popularity: www.politico.eu/article/dona...

politico.eu

Top Trump allies hold secret talks with Zelenskyy’s Ukrainian opponents

As Washington ramps up its pressure on Zelenskyy to step aside, his rivals are talking to Trump’s team.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Trump slapping tariffs on Canada like they’re a global supervillain while giving Russia a free pass. Exactly what did Trudeau do to deserve this?

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Is Zelenskyy losing public support at home? With strained US-Ukr relations, & Trump calling Zelenskyy a "dictator without elections" with a "4% approval" rating - where does public opinion in Ukraine actually stand? Approval, trust, and attitudes on war & peace: www.survation.com/is-zelenskyy...

survation.com

Is Zelenskyy Losing Public Support? Examining Approval, Trust, and Attitudes Toward War and Peace in Ukraine | Survation

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in the US today to sign at least a draft of a resources trade deal, discuss ongoing peace negotiations, and address the...

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Another day of US markets getting roiled again by Trump's tariff talk - US equities are now lower than inauguration day for the first time. Europe & Chi-na doing very well: Global market performance since Trump's Second Inauguration (Jan 20, 2025 - Feb 27, 2025)

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 23/02/2025

Initial market reaction to the German exit polls of either a CDU/CSU + SPD coalition or involvement of the FDP (if they make the 5% cut) is relief. The DAX index is trading +0.53% the Euro +0.33%

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 17/02/2025

Was TikTok’s algorithm manipulated at the Romanian election? Our new poll suggests that young people in Romania lack trust in the platform. 47% of young Romanians saw far-right candidate Călin Georgescu “very often” on TikTok before the annulled election—far exceeding other candidates.

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Roses are red Violets are blue This may look exciting But most likely just skew

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries & UK gilts reflect borrowing costs for those governments. Here's how UK and US government 10 yr borrowing costs have trended over the past 3 months. Without checking - which one is the world's strongest economy and which is the country apparently in a crisis?

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

@labourlist.bsky.social have a piece out this morning "What is behind Labour’s polling woes and what can the party do to turn the tide?" with comments from @christabelcoops.bsky.social @chrishopkins92.bsky.social @luketryl.bsky.social and myself. labourlist.org/2025/01/labo...

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Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Reviewing 2024, @jackpeacock1.bsky.social assesses the political landscape as we enter the new year. Final Westminster Voting Intention of 2024: LAB 30% (-4) CON 25% (+1) REF 20% (+6) LD 11% (-1) GRE 7% (-) SNP 2% (-1) OTH 4% (-3) F/w 12th - 16th December. Changes vs. 2024 General Election.

survation.com

2024 in Review: Labour’s Landslide, Rising Discontent, and the Challenge Ahead | Survation

The election was a huge success for Labour, as the party returned to Government with a Commons majority of 174. Meanwhile the Conservatives faced a...

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Reposted by Damian Lyons Lowe

Survation. @survation.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

Survation’s recent polling of the British public on behalf of 38 Degrees finds majority support for a ban on wealthy foreign nationals donating large sums of money to British Political parties, and opposition to Elon Musk becoming influential in British politics. www.survation.com/what-role-sh...

survation.com

Do the public support limiting Elon Musk's influence? | Survation

Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK and his party treasurer recently took a meeting with Elon Musk in Mar-a-Lago. This meeting came off the back...

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Luigi Mangione’s manifesto reveals a straightforward motive: ‘The US has the #1 most expensive healthcare system in the world, yet we rank roughly #42 in life expectancy.’ Could he make more impact - tipping opinion than Michael Moore or Bernie Sanders? www.kenklippenstein.com/p/luigis-man...

kenklippenstein.com

Exclusive: Luigi's Manifesto

Read the manifesto the media refused to publish

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Damian Lyons Lowe @damiansurvation.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Important from Adam Corlett on the ONS' Labour Force Survey. LFS is the means by which we benchmark national-level statistics on employment, unemployment & economic activity. Adam estimates the LFS has been underestimating growth in the workforce by a whopping 930,000 jobs. Also FT article here:

ft.com

Faulty data overstates surge in UK economic inactivity, finds report

Problems with ONS labour market survey have given ‘overly pessimistic picture’, says Resolution Foundation

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