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Steve Fisher

@stevefisher.bsky.social
1.3K followers 411 following 135 posts

Professor of Political Sociology, Trinity College, University of Oxford. electionsetc.com substack.com/@stevefisheroxford

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Reposted by Steve Fisher
YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 13h
Britons tend to oppose Kemi Badenoch's proposals to extend free childcare for working parents in England to families where one parent earns more than £100,000 Support: 38% Oppose: 45% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026
NEW ANALYSIS: Record wind and solar save UK from gas imports worth £5.9bn during Hormuz crisis 🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date 🏭 gas down ~10% 🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided
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Conor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
1/4 🧵 What happens next if power sharing at Stormont collapses over Drumcree? @colinmurray.bsky.social and I have taken a look for @ukandeu.bsky.social. The answer is perhaps less straightforward than you might think. ukandeu.ac.uk/what-happens...
ukandeu.ac.uk
What happens next if power sharing at Stormont collapses over Drumcree? - UK in a changing Europe
Conor J. Kelly and Colin Murray discuss what would happen next if one of the major parties pulled out of the Stormont...
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Important public opinion patterns described here by Steve. The fragmented elite-level consensus on climate change and aggressive anti-net zero campaign on the (far) right is starting to show in UK public polls. Once again evidence that elites matter, leadership is lacking and apathy is a tragedy.
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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 24/09/2026
YouGov's September 2026 MRP projects that Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow Labour: 241 (-170 from 2024) Conservatives: 130 (+9) Reform UK: 123 (+118) Lib Dems: 71 (-1) SNP: 40 (+31) Plaid Cymru: 15 (+11) Greens: 9 (+5) Others: 3 (-3)
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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
ICYMI new post on how approval for the Net Zero 2050 law has dropped to 46%. First time below 50% according to @deltapoll.bsky.social surveys: Thread … deltapoll.co.uk/net-zero-los...
deltapoll.co.uk
Net Zero by 2050 law loses majority support | Deltapoll
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Joost @almodozo.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
In 2019-2023, the net zero law enjoyed around 60% approval. That dropped to 54% in 2024, 52% in 2025 and just 46% approval this summer, "the first and only time in eight years that less than a majority have approved". This happened despite belief in human-driven climate change holding up at 60-61%.
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The Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) @cast-centre.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
CAST is pleased to have contributed evidence to the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee's report on building support for the #EnergyTransition, as well providing expert witness contributions from our CAST Director Prof Lorraine Whitmarsh MBE & affiliate Prof Rebecca Willis. 👏 Read the report 👇
committees.parliament.uk
Zero sum game: How the UK can reframe the energy transition
The report considers the Government’s approach to building public support for the energy transition, including how its costs and benefits are communicated to households and businesses.
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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New post from me at @deltapoll.bsky.social on declining support for the net zero by 2050 law: deltapoll.co.uk/net-zero-los...
deltapoll.co.uk
Net Zero by 2050 law loses majority support | Deltapoll
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Alastair Harper @alastairharper.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thomas Edison in 1910. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves on this net zero business, lads
Someday some fellow will invent a way of concentrating and storing sunshine to use instead of this old, absurd Prometheus scheme of fire.
I'll do the trick myself if someone doesn't get at it....
This scheme of combustion in order to get power makes me sick to think of—it is so wasteful.... We should utilize natural forces and thus get all of our power. Sunshine is a form of energy, and the winds and the tides are manifestations of energy. Do we use them? Oh no; we burn up wood and coal, as renters burn up the front fence for fuel.
We live like squatters, not as if we owned the property. There must surely come a time when heat and power will be stored in unlimited quantities in every community, all gathered by natural forces. Electricity ought to be as cheap as oxygen, for it cannot be destroyed.
Now, I am not sure but that my new storage battery is the thing. 167
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Lewis Baston @lewisbaston.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Oof. Thresholds sometimes matter quite a lot. Two parties just below the 5 per cent level.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
NEW - Reshaping Belonging: National Identity Change in Post-Referendum Britain - cup.org/4AhXkmW - @jaclarner.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social & @danielwincott.bsky.social #OpenAccess
Logo of the British Journal of Political Science with the text "#OpenAccess" below.
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Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 11/09/2026
In today's @navigatepolitics.uk weekly roundup, I analysed how candidates surnames' dictate how well they do within party slates in multi-member wards. 72% of the time, the candidate 1st alphabetically received the most votes. Surnames starting with Z topped their slates just 6% or the time!!
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Climate hazards disrupted school for more than 171 million students in 2025, says UNICEF #climatecrisis HT @carbonbrief.org www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/...
aljazeera.com
Climate hazards disrupted school for 1 in 10 students in 2025: UNICEF
More than 171 million students affected globally with girls disproportionately impacted.
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UK in a Changing Europe @ukandeu.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
⏰ Starting soon ⏰ 💻 Join @anandmenon.bsky.social, Fiona Hill, Margaret Macmillan, Rana Mitter & @fromtga.bsky.social online for a discussion on global foreign policy challenges 🎥 Live at 1pm BST Tune in here 👉 app.sli.do/event/xn18Mt...
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Michael Heseltine @michaelheseltine.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Excited to share our new @apsrjournal.bsky.social paper! We introduce the Scaled & Classified Congressional Communication (SCCC) dataset: 7M+ congressional communications across X, Facebook, and email, classified by topic, tone, and a range of core strategic measures. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org
Measuring Partisanship and Representation in Online Congressional Communications | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Measuring Partisanship and Representation in Online Congressional Communications
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
"Remember that the sanctity of life in the hill villages of Afghanistan among the winter snows is as inviolable in the eye of Almighty God as can be your own". In part 2 of Gladstone v Disraeli on empire, we explore the great Midlothian Campaign & the 1880 election! www.ppfideas.com/episodes/now...
ppfideas.com
Now & Then with Robert Saunders: Gladstone vs Disraeli Part 2 (Burnham vs Badenoch)
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University of Oxford @ox.ac.uk · 09/09/2026
One in four new cars sold worldwide in 2025 was electric 🚗⚡ But adoption varies widely, from 97% of new car sales in Norway and 53% in China to 10% in the US. On #WorldEVDay, explore the global shift to electric vehicles with @ourworldindata.org ⬇️ ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sal…
The image presents a bar chart illustrating the percentage of new cars sold globally that were electric, including both fully battery-electric and plug-in hybrids, with data projected for 2024. The chart shows a selection of countries and regions from highest to lowest percentage. 

- Norway leads with 92%.
- Sweden follows with 58%.
- China shows 48%.
- The United Kingdom and Switzerland each have 28%.
- The European Union has 21%.
- Canada has 17%.
- Australia is at 13%.
- The United States has 10%.
- South Korea registers 9%.
- Brazil is represented at 6%.
- Japan stands at 3%.
- India is at 2%. 

The data source cited at the bottom is the International Energy Agency's Global EV Outlook 2025.
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Latest article for the House magazine, in which I wonder if I have wasted my life learning about leadership elections rules... www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
The Professor Will See You Now: Defenestration
Lessons in political science. This week: defenestration
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
New post: Understanding long term interest rates movements over the austerity period and today mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/unde... The AI boom may be part of the story about why longer term interest rates are much higher today than they were a decade ago.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Understanding long term interest rates movements over the austerity period and today
The first section explains some basic ideas, and those familiar with arbitrage and the natural real rate of interest can skip to the auste...
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Katherine Ibbett @eparpillee.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
a friend has suddenly had that old favourite a Louis XIV class dumped on her so I sent her the Versailles chickens, and you should know them too if you don't already www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
youtube.com
Dessin animé 2020 - Versaille à la Française
YouTube video by Dessins animés éducatifs en 2020
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
New PISA data out England is now top ten in all three areas (reading, maths, science) and the second highest performing country outside of east Asia (after Estonia). This is a huge public policy success.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
In case you happen to be wondering why a pointy-headed prat like me is so obsessed with this labelling-issue, I should explain: theloop.ecpr.eu/why-we-need-...
theloop.ecpr.eu
Why we need to halt ‘hard right’ in its tracks
Far-right parties are doing well – so it’s important that we see them for what they are. Yet, in the UK, the label ‘hard right’ is catching on. Why is debateable. But, argues Tim Bale, it’s a misdescr...
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Unofficial BBCNews (UK) Bot @bbcnews-uk-rss.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Nigel Farage threatens to overhaul Lords and judiciary in Reform conference speech
bbc.co.uk
Nigel Farage threatens to overhaul Lords and judiciary in Reform conference speech
The Reform UK leader promises to deliver on key priorities in the first 100 days of government, if the party wins power.
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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
His Life of 'A Thousand Miracles' hurstpublishers.substack.com/p/his-life-o...
hurstpublishers.substack.com
His Life of 'A Thousand Miracles'
In Conversation with Judge Theodor Meron CMG
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Sociology at Oxford @sociologyoxford.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
🎉 We’re delighted to announce Professor Heather Hamill as our new Head of Department! 👏 A huge thank you to Professor Colin Mills for his dedication and leadership as Head since 2023. Please join us in welcoming Heather to the role! 🌟➡️ www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/articles/pro...
Image of Heather Hamill with quote: "I am thrilled to be taking on the responsibility of Head of Department. Having been part of Oxford Sociology for more than 20 years, it is a community that means a great deal to me. I have seen it grow and change over that time, while retaining the intellectual curiosity and collegiality that make it such a rewarding place to work.

I am particularly looking forward to working with staff and students to build on the Department’s strengths and to think together about what the next chapter of Oxford Sociology should look like."
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 04/09/2026
NEW – Analysis: UK solar power hits record high over summer 2026 ✍️ Written by @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org 📊 Data analysis by Ho Woo Nam Read here: buff.ly/g7fZyp6
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Let's talk about the weather and climate changes that preceded the Nepali glacier collapse and landslide. It's well known that Nepal is warming, but we can do better and estimate the changes at the 5200m elevation site where the mass of ice and rock ultimately broke loose. A thread. 🧵🧪
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Institute for Government @instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 04/09/2026
The government is expected to approve the Jackdaw gas field later this month. Read our explainer for more on what Jackdaw is and the government's position on North Sea licences www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/ja...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Jackdaw and Rosebank | Institute for Government
What are Jackdaw and Rosebank, and what position has the government taken on North Sea licences?
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Damian Carrington @dpcarrington.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Some good news ... I first wrote about the astonishing mega-leaks of #methane in Turkmenistan in 2023 It's a potent greenhouse gas but fixes can be fast and cheap - a climate "emergency brake" #climatecrisis 1/3 www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Revealed: 1,000 super-emitting methane leaks risk triggering climate tipping points
Vast releases of gas, along with future ‘methane bombs’, represent huge threat – but curbing emissions would rapidly reduce global heating
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
New post: With climate change now visible all around us opponents of action are changing tack. Dismantling their new attacks helps identify a hidden structure in political argument that is often used to try and kill popular + necessary policies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/how-to-kil...
samf.substack.com
How to kill a popular policy
Opposing action to tackle climate change is getting tricker.
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Iceland has voted 52.5% to 47.5% against negotiations to join the European Union as a full member. About 100k - 90k with 99% of votes counted. Iceland is a member of the European Economic Association + single market, so will remain in the EEA after the government's proposal was defeated
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Little piece from me for @arguablymag.bsky.social on why we Westminster electoral reform is more plausible now than it has been for generations www.arguably.uk/p/electoral-...
arguably.uk
Electoral reform has never been closer
The three key ingredients are now in place
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Just on behalf of those saying nothing: a problem with online discourse (& a reason people rush into positions they regret) is the idea we have to express an opinion on everything. I'd never heard of Arday till last week & don't know his work. So I'll follow the story but have nothing of use to add.
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Briony Latter @brionylatter.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
⭐ New paper in @natclimate.nature.com: Social influence shapes climate attitudes and action ⭐ Excited to share this from @samhampton.bsky.social, me & @lwhitmarsh.bsky.social, bringing together evidence on how influence operates in the context of climate action. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/
nature.com
Social influence shapes climate attitudes and action - Nature Climate Change
Individuals and groups shape others’ attitudes and actions through social influence. This Perspective articulates a research agenda of social influence for climate action, synthesizes existing evidenc...
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Sofie Jenkinson @sofiejenkinson.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Today I've written for @labourlist.bsky.social on why working class communities deserve to see a bold plan from Labour on climate. Quite simply we all deserve to be safe and be protected. And there's quite a clear political case for the government too. labourlist.org/2026/08/work...
labourlist.org
'Working class communities deserve a bold climate plan from Labour' - LabourList
Labour has always proudly protected, championed and supported working class communities and should do so once more when it comes to climate.
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John Bull @garius.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Given we are approaching that time of the year, my big piece from years back on the 1983 Cold War Crisis (and the role of Stanislav Petrov in it) over onto authory as a free-to-read. Over the years, the myth of what happened has been simplified. The reality was scarier. Because: Ronald Reagan.
authory.com
The Day the World Didn’t End
At the height of the Cold War, with alarms screaming, one Soviet officer stopped to think. It cost him his career. It may also have saved the world. The morning of the 26th September 1983 had started ...
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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
A Duopoly Under Siege: Britain’s 2026 Elections - John Curtice, 2026
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Ed Conway @edconway.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
✍️ The two things no one ever tells you about writing a book... My latest substack, on the weird world of "blurbs", the significance of preorders and... a rare, special limited-time offer! 👇 edconway.substack.com/p/at-least-o...
edconway.substack.com
At least one very good reason to pre-order Trade World
What no-one tells you about writing a book. And my shameless attempt to confront it...
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 02/08/2026
In short, several countries in Europe are having a very large wildfire year, but this is offset by lower burn in the Balkans. Read it here: hannahritchie.substack.com/p/europe-wil...
hannahritchie.substack.com
Is Europe having a bad wildfire year?
Several countries in Europe are having a very large wildfire year; this is offset by lower burn in the Balkans
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
For a bit more context, our summary is now showing an average Labour lead for the first time in a *while*
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Steve Fisher @stevefisher.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive
The governing party's poll ratings have improved but they're only just ahead of Reform.
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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
How do the results in Greater Manchester Mayorality compare to previous elections? While Labour is well down on its 2024 vote it was significantly up on the locals in Greater Manchester, while both Reform and the Greens are down, with Restore Britain not far off 1 in 10 votes.
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Manchester mayoral results, first round Bev Craig - Labour 47% (+24 vs local elections) Reform 21% (-10) Green 12% (-7) Restore 9% (new) Conservative 8% (-3) Lib Dem 3% (-7)
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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
🚨New paper Like most things in democracies, achieving climate action in the form of sustainable policy needs a significant amount of political mobilization. We investigate when & where this is more likely to happen across places on the climate frontline: the Global South🧵 📌 osf.io/preprints/so...
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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Last week Burnham’s positives were in part he had higher unknowns. That changed this week as the number of neither/don’t know declined and he now has highest gross approval. For Farage rise in disapproval matters less than this drop in gross approval which suggests previous fans wavering
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
If you want the director's cut, here's my much longer preview analysis of the biggest by-election in British history for the Swingometer: swingometer.substack.com/p/the-greate...
swingometer.substack.com
The Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election
What if you called the biggest by-election ever and no one noticed?
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I've done a short post for @ukandeu.bsky.social on tomorrow's GM by-election ukandeu.ac.uk/whats-at-sta...
ukandeu.ac.uk
What’s at stake in the biggest by-election in British history - UK in a changing Europe
On Thursday 30 July, voters in Greater Manchester will vote to elect a new Mayor in a by-election triggered by Andy Burnham's return to Westminster. Here, Rob Ford reflects on the by-election and what...
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/07/2026
No doubt you’ll all be rushing to pre-order the hardcover for the bargain price of £95 (😬), but should that prove a little steep, we’re pleased to say that the electronic version will be available open access, i.e. free!
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 29/07/2026
It’s not out for another six months or so, but *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*, my book with Ed Fieldhouse, @profjanegreen.bsky.social , Geoff Evans, @jack-bailey.co.uk and @jonmellon.bsky.social, is up on the OUP website! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
Cover of *Electoral Realignment: How Brexit Reshaped British Voting Behaviour*
By Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Christopher Prosser, Geoffrey Evans, Jack Bailey, and Jonathan Mellon
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