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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

New post: Midterms polling is getting dramatically worse for Trump. So what happens if he loses the House and Senate? What could the Democrats do with the powers they'd gain? What impact would it have on global politics? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...

samf.substack.com

What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?

Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3h

A Democratic sweep is looking ever more likely. In this weekend's post I looked at what it would mean for US and global politics. samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...

samf.substack.com

What happens if the Democrats sweep the midterms?

Back in March, when I first looked at the midterms, the Democrats were already favourites to win the House.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15h

Was interviewed by a US journalist today who asked if we were all panicking about terrorists at Fairford, which ended with me trying to explain dogging.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 19h

Sorry kids no social care for you...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 20h

We can all argue about Burnham's speech but it meant girl twin asking me what the triple lock was and boy twin asking me what my preferred form of PR is. So it's done its work.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

So he really is ending the triple lock eh. Fair play.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

Burham is confirming an iron rule of employment - always try and replace someone who's been fired for incompetance as you'll look great in contrast.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

Water..... where the shareholders never lose. Tell that to Thames Water investors...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

"We don't let people sell food that damages health"... Um, someone needs to take him to a Greggs.

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JoelTaylorhack @joeltaylorhack.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Well this is an extremely important, if utterly depressing, read

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Every private conversation in Westminster: "Well the triple lock obviously has to go at some point". Every commentator on Burnham: "completely mad to propose getting rid of triple lock - political suicide".

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social On the still ongoing, horrific, but little covered war in Sudan. How it illustrates the difficulties of ending wars, and whether there is any route to ending this one. (Free to read) samf.substack.com/p/the-sudan-...

samf.substack.com

The Sudan War: is there any way out?

Since April 2023 Sudan has been consumed by a vicious war that gets far too little attention in the West.

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Public Sector Lawyer @publicsectorlawyer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Democratic constitutions struggle everywhere to restrain determined authoritarians where politics are polarised. bsky.app/profile/samf...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Yeah yeah now try doing it with three frankfurters, a muller corner, half a tub of coleslaw and three slices of leftover dominos.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

My immediate reaction is to wonder why the laughing cow is breaking up with me.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Times this morning. Me in December last year. It was pretty damn obvious this would happen to anyone who did the maths. samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It is really fascinating to me that people cannot separate his obvious desire to cheat with his ability to do so. I've been arguing about this all year and he's been able to do almost none of the things people thought he might try.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

For those of you worried Trump might rig the elections or block the result somehow - I wrote about this in March and nothing I said then has been wrong yet... samf.substack.com/p/the-lifeli...

samf.substack.com

The lifeline election (part two)

Can Trump steal the midterms?

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Edward Walker @gnuggat.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

V smart analysis. NB: “Former allies… will feel there is a good chance of resurrecting some kind of relationship with the US under a Dem admin… But they will be less worried about speaking out… Meloni’s and Marine Le Pen’s distancing from Trump… is fracturing the global radical right alliance.”

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Just finished re-reading The Player of Games. Such a brilliant book. Surely one of the best genre novels of all time.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Also under current proposals they won't be allowed to be social care workers after 2028. Ministers still don't seem to understand their own plan.

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Nash0rn @nash0rn.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Very interesting piece summarising the state of US politics ahead of the midterm elections in November, giving an outlook of what is to come.

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Mark @worgztheowl.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Some hopeful reading this morning.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on Ukraine's latest fightback in the Donbas + its significance for the war. samf.substack.com/p/operation-...

samf.substack.com

Operation Vivaldi and the Battle for Donetsk

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has three distinctive components.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

On the substack this week... Why England's schools have shot up the PISA league tables - taking a detailed look at the data on immigration, technology, attention, and curriculum. samf.substack.com/p/why-englan...

samf.substack.com

Why England’s schools are doing so well

And what we need to focus on next

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Daughter asked me to put "chocolate lesbians" on the shop which led to some confusion before we figured out she meant chocolate Liebniz biscuits.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

samf.substack.com

Why England’s schools are doing so well

And what we need to focus on next

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mwhoyle96.bsky.social @mwhoyle96.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

The implications for the law are enormous - even for parts of the system where there are court fees to provide some friction. I spoke to an associate who works for utility firms who says they are having crisis meeting about the number of pre-action letters they are getting.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

AI is also going to force changes to anything where the friction is provided by a lengthy application process that can now be largely automated: employment tribunals, job applications, complaints procedures... As we're already seeing.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

In hospital to have another kidney stone removed. Which is marginally preferable to going to the Labour party conference.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Not saying the BBC News has lost focus but they currently have a live stream of the UK's biggest vegtable competition on their front page.

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Daisy Christodoulou @daisychristo.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Great summary of the latest PISA scores from @samfr.bsky.social Picks out some details that haven't been reported much. EG 81% of children in England are in schools that ban phones. England one of the few countries NOT to see a rise in pupils saying they think learning new things is boring.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Thank God Reform is standing up for masked, knife-wielding, ex-cons. Society's most marginalised group.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New post out: We have a fascinating guest post looking at how Putin has ratcheted up his campaign against Europe - through hybrid warfare, global alliances and support for malicious actors. Also looks at whether/how the escalation will continue. samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...

samf.substack.com

Putin’s campaign against Europe

How far will he go?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I mean I know it's bad and the govt should say more about it. But god it's also pathetic. 100 twats in their crappy homemade outfits.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

*bangs head against wall forever* Apparently the way Burnham thinks we get parity of esteem is by saying vocational quals are for non-academic kids.

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PadstowWhis 〓〓 @padstowwhis.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

UK (and Europe) has been at war with Putin's USSR for well over a decade, whether we recognise it or not.

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Joe Egerton @joeegg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This is very good indeed. Highly informative and properly researched. Easy and clear English makes it a pleasure to read. It looks as if Russia is now ignoring the 1856 Declaration of Paris which ended privateering. (The USA has never signed the declaration; Russia did.)

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Russia is stepping up its campaign to weaken Europe and undermine its support for Ukraine. @hannanotte.bsky.social provides an informed and lucid assessment of what Putin is put to, how far he might go, and how European countries should respond. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...?

samf.substack.com

Putin’s campaign against Europe

How far will he go?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

samf.substack.com

Putin’s campaign against Europe

How far will he go?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Worth remembering that MRPs don't pick up tactical voting decisions that happen during a campaign. So I'd guess this slightly underplays Lab/Lib and slightly overplays Con/Reform.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The difference between the performance of immigrants in England and Western Europe is staggering. (20 pts equals a year of learning.) I looked at this in detail in the post - it can't be explained away by language or relative advantage of different immigrant communities. There is a policy factor.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Guys the budget has been leaked!

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I watched it live on TV. I'm pretty jaded about watching politicians spew nonsense and make mad decisions, but when Kwarteng announced the 45p rate cut I did shout out loud "what the fuck are you doing!?"

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

One of obvious problems Reform has is the views of those in charge don't remotely match many of their voters.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Headteacher wrote a letter to both twins congratulating them on their GCSE results and in both he said he much preferred them to their twin. Excellent trolling. 10/10.

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Graham Johnston @gjohnstontherapy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Fascinating and useful analysis of the ongoing improvement in England’s schools.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

One vaguely serious party.... it's all I ask for.

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