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Jac Larner

@jaclarner.bsky.social
2.1K followers 264 following 89 posts

Associate Prof in Politics at Cardiff University & Fellow Edinburgh University. Political Psychology 🧠 & Public Opinion. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner

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Reposted by Jac Larner
British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
NEW - Reshaping Belonging: National Identity Change in Post-Referendum Britain - cup.org/4AhXkmW - @jaclarner.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social & @danielwincott.bsky.social #OpenAccess
Logo of the British Journal of Political Science with the text "#OpenAccess" below.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Two(!) permanent lectureships coming up at Cardiff: One in political behaviour/opinion cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52... One in British politics (very loosely defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... Feel free to get in touch and I'll be happy to answer any questions I can
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
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Will Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
The @britishacademy.bsky.social deserves praise for its work in this area, but the bottom line is that the 20th century academic career is going the way of the defined benefit pension: once past promises have been honoured, no new promises will be made.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
This is just false, isn't it? Avg levels of trust in Holyrood (mean 4.46 on a 0–10 scale) are higher than levels of trust in W'minster (3.06), so Dundee would have to be way out of line w/ the nat'l picture to trust Holyrood as much as W'minster www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
electionanalysis.uk
The Meh election? Campaign dynamics in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election - UK Election Analysis
Whilst the 2026 Scottish Parliament election produced a colourful, rainbow parliament, it came out of what was largely characterised as a rather bland campaign.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Today's young republicans are tomorrow's loyal subjects — support for monarchy rises steadily with age across all generations 👑 Started as office joke but ended with valuable finding about legitimacy of unaccountable institutions. Andrew's latest disgrace not in data, but plenty of earlier ones are
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Richard Wyn Jones @richardwynjones.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
open.substack.com/pub/willhayw... A long read from me on what the hell just happened to Welsh Labour Do please share with anyone who might be interested! Diolch @willhaycardiff.bsky.social and to @jaclarner.bsky.social and Owain Cynfab for the graphics!
open.substack.com
Why Welsh Labour lost
Breaking down why Wales' governing party collapsed so dramatically
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇
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Public Opinion Analytics Lab (POAL) @poalab.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
We are pleased to share that the report from our 2026 Local Elections event is now available The report brings together key insights and discussion points from the event, focusing on the evolving dynamics of local elections and their broader implications See the report here: poal.co.uk/events/
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Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Ymunwch â @jaclarner.bsky.social a @richardwynjones.bsky.social ar gyfer ein dadansoddiad ôl-etholiad Senedd Cymru 2026 / Join us for our online event to examine what happened in the 2026 Welsh national election. Dolen cofrestru yma / Registration link here 👇 www.eventbrite.com/e/1990480045...
eventbrite.com
The Senedd Election 2026: What Happened, and Why? - Post Election Briefing
Etholiad y Senedd 2026: Beth ddigwyddodd, a Pham? - Dadansoddiad Ôl-Etholiad gan yr Athro Richard Wyn Jones a Dr Jac Larner
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Two weeks on from the Senedd election, here are a few reflections on what actually happened and what it might mean for the next four years. Thread. 🧵 jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Great work from James on how Wales’ new electoral system performed (Even if he has cut off Monmouthshire….)
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Reposted by Jac Larner
Ailsa Henderson @ailsahenderson.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Fascinating stuff. Only thing I'd add is that ability of list to compensate for disproportionality in const depends on limited split ticket voting. Prelim SES data suggest *split tickets at an all time high* this election, thus further weakening Lab and Con chances esp Quebec proposed a model of ...
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Labour down 30 points in two constituencies declared so far @itvcymruwales.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk MRP looking pretty good at the moment across board on vote shares
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Record turnout in Wales with Senedd & Westminster turnout converging. Unthinkable a few years ago but still nearly half of registered voters staying home Competitiveness always helps, as well as the growing understanding that decisions Welsh Government takes has an impact on day-to-day lives
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Some great stuff here from our PhD student @willdv2002.bsky.social what voters do and don’t know about voting in Senedd 2026 election
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Notable that much of the variation in Welsh polling has disappeared in the final days of the campaign. The standard deviation in Plaid Cymru estimates across firms fell from 4.3 to 1.8 percentage points since autumn; for Labour, from 5.6 to 2.3 Most convergence happening in last 10 days (1/2)
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
The headline findings are worth your time, but Dan’s contribution here is a thoughtful history of how national identity has (and has not) been measured in British surveys over time
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social: After EU Referendum Remain voters became less British🇬🇧 Same gap emerged between Yes and No voters after 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 IndyRef but then disappeared; Brexit's hasn't, because ongoing implementation keeps reinforcing the threat, meaning gap has continued to grow. Full link 👇
Long-term change in British identity across three model specifications. In all models Remain voters show a drop in Britishness. In two of the three Leavers also show a drop in Britishness but this is smaller
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
In just 2,000 words, @richardhywelking.bsky.social has produced a masterful guide through the last 27 years of Labour in Wales. Essential reading before next Thursday when the Labour century may come to an end www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
lrb.co.uk
Richard King · Labour in Wales
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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 The Senedd election is just over a week away, and the polls suggest Labour might lose in Wales for the first time in a over century! So, I've written a quick overview on the blocs structuring Welsh politics, and what people think of Labour: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk
Issues, Accountability, and Labour’s Declining Support in Wales
Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
NEW ITV Wales YouGov MRP has Plaid and Reform neck and neck in Senedd vote intention Impossible to say who would be largest party in terms of seats but neither would be close to majority Would almost certainly result in Plaid led government as they have more potential allies in the Senedd 🧵👇
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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 25/03/2026
YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Senedd election shows Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party PC: 43 (+19 from 2021*) Ref: 30 (+30) Lab: 12 (-32) Grn: 10 (+10) Con: 1 (-25) LD: 0 (-2) *notional results had the last election been conducted on the new system based on data from Dr Jac Larner
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
New poll in Wales, this time with constituency level estimates from YouGov(🥳). Polling in Wales has been pretty noisy over the last 24 months with some big house effects, but the general vote intention trend is clear - May 2026 is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
This loss of talent will have long term consequences for our national research base. Government and funders should do something about it.
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Ailsa Henderson @ailsahenderson.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
SES scoop out @scotvoting.bsky.social
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Fantastic stuff, as ever, from Nye on the decline of two cornerstones of Welsh identity over the last century: Rugby and the Labour Party
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Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Ahead of #Senedd26 @jaclarner.bsky.social joined the BBC's Chris Mason in #Pontypridd to discuss the big shifts in Welsh politics that suggest a century of electoral dominance by the Labour Party is being challenged by Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, who are battling to top the polls in #Wales.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
From November 2025 - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of political scandals on perceptions of leaders, focusing on the UK and Scotland. The study explores themes like containment and contrast in institutional reactions to such scandals.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...
github.com
GitHub - jaclarner/Cardiff-YouGov_Dec25: Repository for simple cross tabs and raw data (.csv) for Cardiff University/YouGov December 2025 Data
Repository for simple cross tabs and raw data (.csv) for Cardiff University/YouGov December 2025 Data - jaclarner/Cardiff-YouGov_Dec25
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 data paints picture of consolidation within two blocs: a Welsh-identifying/progressive bloc (with Plaid as largest party) and a British-identifying/conservative bloc (with Reform as largest). Adds to evidence that 2026 is shaping up to be 2-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK 🧵
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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
There's not much political & social science can point to and say 'we know almost certainly that this will happen', but accommodating the far-right and subsequently losing is one of them.
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Reposted by Jac Larner
Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
NEWYDD - Adroddiad gan @robdjones.bsky.social yn dadansoddi'r data diweddaraf ar garchardai a charchariad yng Nghymru 👇 NEW - Report from Dr Robert Jones analyses the latest data on prisons and imprisonment in Wales 👇 #Wales #Cymru #Senedd26 www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-n...
walesonline.co.uk
Women in Wales are being jailed more often
Research has been carried out by a team at Cardiff University
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Boris Johnson toasting one of the gatherings in Downing Street which breached Covid lockdown rules
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Wales Governance Centre | Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru @walesgovernance.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Almost a decade on, Wales' fiscal reforms deliver nearly £1 Billion windfall but fall short on empowering the Senedd Major new report calls for tripling of borrowing powers and full income tax control as Fiscal Framework reforms deliver unprecedented budget boost:👇 www.cardiff.ac.uk/__data/asset...
cardiff.ac.uk
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
This is shockingly uninformed about how polling works
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Two unpopular governments at both ends of the M4 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
A bar chart showing approval and disapproval ratings for the UK and Welsh governments in April 2025 and September  2025. In April 2025, UK government approval was 15% with 60% disapproval (net -45%), while Welsh government had 19% approval and 48% disapproval (net -29%). By September 2025, UK government approval dropped to 8% with 71% disapproval (net -63%), and Welsh government approval fell to 12% with 51% disapproval (net -39%). Source: ITV Wales polling, Chart by Jac Larner
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵
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madoc cairns @madoc.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Ahead of the expected proscription of Palestine Action - the first time a protest group has been legally redefined as terrorist - I went through the Hansard of the 2000 Act they're being banned under. Turns out MPs were assured the law wouldn't be applied this way. Thread 🧵🔽
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Does anybody have experience of recontacting Prolific participants after a study to measure attitude change over time? Struggling to find information on feasibility of this
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Our nowcast projection for the NI Assembly ‘27: SF — 28 Seats DUP — 21 Seats AP — 16 Seats UUP — 9 Seats SDLP — 9 Seats TUV — 7 Seats From @devolvedelections.bsky.social & devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ireland/
devolvedelections.co.uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, visual, and up-to-date!
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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join @scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...
eventbrite.co.uk
One Year Out: The outlook for the 2026 Holyrood election
Join us on Thursday 8 May for this Stevenson Lecture with the Scottish Election Study Team.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...
jaclarner.github.io
Senedd Election Simulator
Senedd Election Simulator - Visualize Welsh election results
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
New @itvcymruwales.bsky.social poll shows substantial shift in Welsh political landscape. Plaid Cymru leads with 30%, Reform UK at 25%, Labour at 18% - their lowest since devolution- & Conservatives on 13% - one of their poorest Welsh polling performances in 2 decades. 🧵 www.itv.com/news/wales/2...
itv.com
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Centre on Constitutional Change @ccc-research.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
The @scotvoting.bsky.social Annual Lecture, 'The Unstable Vote' by @profjanegreen.bsky.social is being held in Edinburgh on Monday 12th May! Register below 👇
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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
💻 NEW DATA The Scottish political landscape has evolved greatly in recent months and a lot has been said about support for @reformukscotland.bsky.social with little available analysis. @frasmcm.bsky.social and @ailsahenderson.bsky.social took a look at the party's support on our blog t.ly/PjCxX
t.ly
Is it the Scunner Factor? Reform UK Support in Scotland
Two big stories look set to define the Scottish Parliament election in May 2026. The first is whether the SNP can do well enough following a drubbing at the 2024 general election to remain in power fo...
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Stefanie Reher @stefaniereher.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
@elizabethjevans.bsky.social and I had the opportunity to talk to @alanrenwick.bsky.social about our research and our book Disability and Political Representation on the UCL Uncovering Politics Podcast. Thanks for hosting us!
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
New fun pub - The Authentic A**hole (particularly proud of getting title accepted) ✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure ✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions ✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage tinyurl.com/25us7y7z
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