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Calum Weir

@cwp-weir.bsky.social
5.5K followers 2.3K following 696 posts

Research Manager at ThinkLabour 📈 - Opinions all my own - He/Him Running: www.pollingpolis.co.uk

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Reposted by Calum Weir
Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Our @thinklabour.bsky.social report on the Greens challenge to Labour is in the Guardian today. Our diagnosis of why Labour's vote fell in cities is high housing costs for young people, plus progressives worried that Labour doesn't reflects their values. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Greens just four points behind Labour in urban areas, poll reveals
Exclusive: UK’s Green parties could take 40 seats if result replicated at next election, according to Labour-linked thinktank
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Dan Mead @danmead.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Bristol has a fast growing economy. So why does Labour face electoral danger in the city? Our new polling shows that Labour is losing a crucial set of voters in big cities: those that feel like they are financially struggling. Why are they financially struggling? Housing. A thread 🧵:
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Great cast list for our next ThinkLabs event - Sam Freedman, Jack Straw and Jonathan Jones KC join @thinklabour.bsky.social's Millie Woods to discuss her latest report on whether it is possible to "re-wire" the state. Sign up for "The Lame Leviathan" event here: luma.com/br9vg44k
luma.com
ThinkLabs: The Lame Leviathan · Luma
Building on The Lame Leviathan, join Jack Straw, Sir Jonathan Jones KC, Amelia Wood and Sam Freedman to discuss on the growth of public law and discuss whether…
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Reposted by Calum Weir
Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Interesting findings in the latest polling by @opiniumresearch.bsky.social. Burnham becoming PM has significantly improved voters' perceptions of the Labour Party - across the board.
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
That’s the worst one in a long time - An unmatched talent in songwriting, singing, philanthropy and good humour
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Wife and I both pissing ourselves with laughter but also green with envy at this description of the Viennetta factory
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Fun new wee game on PollingPolis. Have a see at how accurately you can draw the trends below!: www.pollingpolis.co.uk/pencil.html
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Reposted by Calum Weir
ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
People often assume they know what Labour members think. We decided to ask them. The results might surprise you. Labour members back higher defence spending in an increasingly uncertain world and support reducing welfare spending.
theguardian.com
Labour members ‘have tougher view on welfare than you might think’, poll suggests
Survey finds party members see health, the economy, cost of living and climate crisis among biggest challenges
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Some fun new driving test polling from us below!:
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Why is it still harder to book a driving test than get Glastonbury tickets? Our latest substack looks at why the driving test backlog still hasn't been fixed six years after the pandemic - and argues the real obstacle isn't logistics, it's politics.
thinklabour.substack.com
Why Josh Widdecombe’s wife is a victim of the cost of living
Amelia Wood, Policy Advisor
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Here is the pollingpolis.co.uk average of where 2024 Labour voters are going. Notable uptick of returning 2024 voters and downtick (?) of Greens
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
For a bit more context, our summary is now showing an average Labour lead for the first time in a *while*
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
For anyone using pollingpolis.co.uk at the minute, would encourage you to turn off the LOESS average to just see how fast the momentum is moving for Labour. Not scientific but have tried to highlight it below:
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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Latest leader approvals 🌹Burnham bumps up to +19, 8 higher than Keir’s high of 11. 🌳Badenoch down slightly to break even 🔶Davey drops back to -11 💚Polanski is at -24 ➡️Farage drops to another low, by far his lowest since the election at -32
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The National Care Service has been promised before. Why could this time be different? Our latest substack by Policy Director, @abbyabhaya.bsky.social, explores the politics of care reform, intergenerational fairness, and whether Labour can finally deliver a National Care Service.
thinklabour.substack.com
The debt of dignity - reviving the National Care Service
Abby Jitendra
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Slow news day! Some thoughts from a focus group here, feel free to read:
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Today Britain has a new Prime Minister. So we brought together a focus group with Labour considerers to ask a simple question: what do they actually think of Andy Burnham? Read about the challenges he faces in public opinion in our latest substack, by @cwp-weir.bsky.social
thinklabour.substack.com
Turn and Face the Strange.
Calum Weir, Research Manager
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Our first focus groups on Andy Burnham with Labour considerers with a spectrum of views. Interesting North/South divide - Southerners simply know less about him. There's hope he'll be more representative of "Labour values" than the previous government – will be important that he lives up to that.
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Slow news day! Some thoughts from a focus group here, feel free to read:
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Who is Labour for? With a new PM stepping into number 10 on Monday, that question has never been more important. At ThinkLabour, we’re keeping it front and centre. Yesterday we sat down with the Deputy Leader of the Labour party, Lucy Powell, to tackle it head on.
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
For anyone with even a passing interest in polling, this is a fantastic resource, created by @cwp-weir.bsky.social, Research Manager at @thinklabour.bsky.social, which collates all the latest public headline polling, but also pulls out demographic detail from the tables. www.pollingpolis.co.uk
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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Right, polling geeks. Who can guess which pollster from their houae effects? (Yes FoN is... quite obvious. But some suprises as well)
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Yesterday, as a personal project, I put out a UK poll tracker: pollingpolis.co.uk It has UK Voting Intention, Best PM, Net Approval and Vote by 2024 Vote, Region and Age. A quick tour of how it works 🧵
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Hello! Outside of my work at @thinklabour.bsky.social, I’ve been squirrelling away at a polling aggregator. This is www.pollingpolis.co.uk! It has all the usual stuff but, crucially, also has a wee view for Age, Gender and Past Vote, plus much more for customising and sifting through. Have fun!
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Very very very exciting but also I would imagine there’ll be a lot of:
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Dan Mead @danmead.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
It looks like Labour both consolidated the progressive bloc and increased turnout to win in Makerfield Great rapid work by my research colleagues @christabelcoops.bsky.social @cwp-weir.bsky.social @dylancridland.bsky.social
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
I’m biased, but if you read any electoral strategy takes today, make it this one:
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
A remarkable Labour win last night. The real lesson of Makerfield? In our latest substack, Christabel Cooper explains why rebuilding a larger progressive coalition, while persuading more transactional voters that Labour can stand up for them and deliver in office is the path to beating Reform.
thinklabour.substack.com
The real lesson of Makerfield
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
It is extremely important that Labour understands that the movement of voters between Lab and Ref was not the crucial factor, it was consolidation of the anti-Ref vote and Lab voters turning out in droves. Otherwise Burnham will make the same mistakes as Starmer in targeting only one set of voters.
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Arresting and amusing statistic from @christabelcoops.bsky.social here: a majority of voters (52 per cent) believe that Angela Rayner was born into a middle class or upper class family, rising to more than 60 per cent of Green voters:
thinklabour.substack.com
Too posh to poll? What happens when voters think politicians are more privileged than they really are
Christabel Cooper, Director of Research, ThinkLabour
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Today @thinklabour.bsky.social publishes our report on Muslim voters, dispelling some misconceptions. Muslims - like most other Brits - prioritise the cost of living above any other issue including the conflict in Gaza. thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/gon...
thinklabour.co.uk
Gone, but not forever: Why many British Muslims fell out of love with Labour - but remain open to return • ThinkLabour
ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.
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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 27/05/2026
Full results on whether Taylor Swift is bigger than The Beatles available here: yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
yougov.com
Which of the following comes closest to your view? | Daily Question
Which of the following comes closest to your view?
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Dan Mead @danmead.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Imagine you live in Burnley, all your family and friends are there. You get offered a new job in Manchester. Trainline tells you the train takes 45 minutes to go 25 miles. And it would take you 20 minutes to drive to the station. It also tells you there is only one train an hour to work. 🧵:
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
After tough local election results, many are saying Labour can no longer hold together a broad electoral coalition. They argue Labour’s voters are now too divided by class, culture and values. Our first report from ThinkLabour disagrees. thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/who...
thinklabour.co.uk
Who Is Labour For? • ThinkLabour
ThinkLabour is a think tank working at the heart of British politics to support the Labour movement with research, strategy, and policy development.
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Today marks the launch of ThinkLabour! 🌹We are a unique political organisation dedicated to helping Labour govern confidently, win elections, and deliver lasting change.Here is what we are building 👇
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
We’ve built an interactive game to show what the pressure of adult social care looks like in practice. In Run the Council, you take charge of a fictional council for four years. Can you run ‘Northfield Council’ amongst mounting financial pressures? Play here: www.labourtogether.uk/council-sim
labourtogether.uk
Council Simulation — Labour Together
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ThinkLabour @thinklabour.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Rising energy prices need more than 'wait and see.' @jameshowat.bsky.social sets out the case for capping prices at pre-war levels, a temporary income tax rise, and capping welfare, pension and wage uplifts at 2% to break the inflationary cycle. labourtogether.uk/blog/cap-energy-prices-raise-taxes
labourtogether.uk
Cap energy prices, raise taxes — Labour Together
The conventional wisdom in Whitehall is that we should "wait and see" before doing anything about rising energy prices, and then only help with "targeted measures” for the most vulnerable people. That...
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
NEW PAPER from @labourtogether.bsky.social argues we should allow Thames Water to go down the drain. The alternative is a fudged deal that softens pollution targets and sees large returns for hedge funds. This will fuel calls for nationalising the industry, and the uncertainty could push up bills.
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
For the craic - The trendines for each pollster from 2024 to now
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Bought in a wee antiques market today - When did we stop calling political rows/scandals “The X Affair” and start using “-gate”?
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Rachel Cunliffe @rmcunliffe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
We keeping hearing that polls show immigration is a top priority for voters - but how are such polls designed, and does tweaking the way we ask the question affect the answer? Fascinating chat with Calum Weir of @labourtogether.bsky.social on just that www.newstatesman.com/podcasts/pol...
newstatesman.com
How much does immigration actually matter to the public?
Shabana Mahmood was back in the Commons today outlining her controversial immigration plans.
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
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LabourList @labourlist.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's @cwp-weir.bsky.social
labourlist.org
‘Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?’ – LabourList
The most important part of the body politic is the stomach. The eyes can be distracted, the ears can be blasted with noise, but the…
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Emrys Schoemaker @emrys.eurosky.social · 16/11/2025
This is a great post on how to understand what’s important to people - it’s shocking that this might be news to political decision makers
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Andrew Lewin MP @andrewlewinmp.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
Essential reading from Calum Weir - on findings from some innovative polling from Labour Together. His words "Immigration is salient, polarising and important. Cost of living is foundational, unifying and in some ways, even more important." labourlist.org/2025/11/immi... @cwp-weir.bsky.social
labourlist.org
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
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Cam Vargas @camvargas.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
Top top work here from @cwp-weir.bsky.social
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Mark Pack @markpackuk.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
Fascinating piece.
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Adam Drummond @adamdrummond.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
Really interesting experiment by @cwp-weir.bsky.social labourlist.org/2025/11/immi...
labourlist.org
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
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Emma Burnell @emmaburnell.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
I found this so interesting. We talk about polling results endlessly but rarely discuss how we ask the questions. This salience vs importance question is fascinating.
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Calum Weir @cwp-weir.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
As immigration dominates the brief this morning, here’s my two cents on the salience vs. the importance of the issue: labourlist.org/2025/11/immi... (Full report linked below - Many thanks to @emmaburnell.bsky.social!!)
labourlist.org
'Bread, circuses, and polling errors: Are we truly measuring what matters?' - LabourList
Pollsters who ask questions that add nuance are rewarded with a richer look at the public’s outlook argues Labour Together's Calum Weir.
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