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Spenser A. Warren

@spenserawarren.bsky.social
813 followers 431 following 211 posts

Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Harvard's Belfer Center | Formerly UC IGCC | PhD, Indiana University | Michigan State Alum | Work on nuclear weapons, emerging tech, Russia, international security | Also football and Star Wars

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Reposted by Spenser A. Warren
Dustin A. Chacón @lingdustin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I've heard people make claims that AI would lead to a new Renaissance, but I didn't imagine it'd happen like this:
Screenshot of a Tweet from Pope Leo XIV. It reads: 

"In this era of artificial intelligence, it is becoming urgen to distinguish human art from what machines produce. There is an ontological difference, even before an aesthetic one, between art and what a machine can generate through statistical calculation based on millions of images created by others. Algorithms lack the spark of humanity. For this reason, the Church wishes to renew an alliance with artists and cultural institutions to safeguard our humanity."
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
For anyone traveling to LA for IS-ISSS this year and looking for panels to attend Sunday afternoon, I have three that I would "recommend" (translation: shamelessly promote). First up at 2 is a panel on Deterrence, Reassurance, and Alliance Credibility featuring five interesting papers.
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Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Fire Point is also developing a larger ballistic missile, the FP-9, that would be able to reach Moscow and strategic defense industry targets. Ukraine says that missile . . . is expected to be ready later this year. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/w...
nytimes.com
Ukraine Reports First Combat Use of Its Own Ballistic Missile
While the missile fired on Thursday has a limited range, Kyiv is developing a larger weapon that could strike Moscow.
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Rex Huppke @rexhuppke.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This post turned into a column: www.usatoday.com/story/opinio...
usatoday.com
Christa Pike's botched execution is a moral stain on America | Opinion
I understand the shock over Tennessee's botched execution of convicted murderer Christa Pike. But it never should have happened in the first place.
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Zachary Shirkey @zachary-shirkey.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Your regular reminder that Michigan hasn’t had the death penalty since 1846–the first English-speaking jurisdiction in the world to ban it. This is a huge source of pride for me in my home state. You’ll also note, Michigan has been just fine without it. www.michbar.org/programs/mil...
michbar.org
Michigan Legal Milestones: 41. First to Abolish the Death Penalty
The State Bar of Michigan shall aid in promoting improvements in the administration of justice and advancements in jurisprudence, in improving relations between the legal profession and the public, an...
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Gregory Koblentz @gregkoblentz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The US is refusing to pay its annual dues to the OPCW. A bipartisan group of nonpro and natsec experts have called upon @state-department.bsky.social to fund the global CW watchdog immediately. @armscontrolnow.bsky.social @nukesofhazard.bsky.social armscontrolcenter.org/time-to-fund...
armscontrolcenter.org
Time To Fund the OPCW - Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
By John Erath Since 1993, chemical weapons have killed thousands, with many times more affected, often suffering for years. This despite the Chemical Weapons Convention ban on such activity and a gene...
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Zachary Shirkey @zachary-shirkey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
(And of course veterans getting education post service). Most political scientists I know really like teaching officers. They are great, dedicated students. Officers become better at their mission through rigorous education. There is no tension i’ve seen.
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Zachary Shirkey @zachary-shirkey.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
As an international relations professor in NYC, let me say that regular interaction btw civilian academics and the US Army is routine. Civilians teaching at West Point. Active duty officers getting graduate education in civilian universities. Retiring officers getting PhDs so they can teach at WP.
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
North Pack Monadnock yesterday.
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thinkingbayonet.bsky.social @thinkingbayonet.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Fantastic question and the answer is Cajun Bobby
static.klipy.com
Bobby Hill: This Flower Is Wilting - King Of The Hill
ALT: Bobby Hill: This Flower Is Wilting - King Of The Hill
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Below is my syllabus "AI Statement". Reliance on LLMs is incompatible with "cultivating the embrace of geeking out"
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It 100% happened and was real to the point it quickly felt weirdly oppressive on its own terms, but we have literal numbers for this! Dubya had approval ratings in the 90s!
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I can now claim that a Detroit Lion once liked a dumb joke I made about Conrad's on Twitter. www.detroitnews.com/story/sports...
detroitnews.com
Lions sign Joe Bachie from practice squad; one 53-man spot remains open
The Detroit Lions entered Monday, Sept. 7, with two openings on their 53-man roster. After promoting former MSU LB Joe Bachie, only one remains.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/09/2026
Russia apparently planned to launch an ICBM from Dombarovskiy during the 3-5 September window. By all indications it was the Avangard glider. The test appears to have been cancelled. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09..., Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/attempted-...
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Bradley P. Moss @bradmossesq.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
These people had protected status. They lived here legally. They worked, they paid taxes. They made lives. Raised families. Now we’ve dehumanized them. Ripped away that protection and told them to get out. This is a stain on the soul of this Nation.
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David Dixon @dixondaver.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Parton ("9 to 5," 1980) provides a more trenchant critique of capital than does Marx ("Das Kapital," 1867) because as a researcher, Parton correctly frames the problem of capital as exacerbating but not supplanting other pre-existing human dynamics such as gender roles. In this essay, I will
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Tom @taschoene.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I used to walk past a quote from her every day in one of the most unlikely places — the Office of Naval Intelligence. The quote: “If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, and become more, you are a leader.” She did and she was. The story of how it got there is kinda surreal.
dailykos.com
Dolly Parton’s Words to Receive a Biblical Level of Reverence from Naval Intelligence Facility
See how a Dolly Parton quote got mistaken for John Quincy Adams before being set straight at a military site. Learn more inside!
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 25/08/2026
“For thinkers on the New Right, the West is defined by a specific geographic territory, a shared ancestry, and Christianity.” Read Leonard Schuette on the New Right’s logic of civilizationism—and how it could inform Washington’s next grand strategy:
foreignaffairs.com
The New Right’s Grand Strategy After Trump
Civilizationism would upend America’s role in the world.
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Library of Congress @librarycongress.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The Library is devastated to learn of the passing of Dolly Parton, a music legend and titan of children's literacy. Her Imagination Library program has earned multiple Library Literacy Awards and, in 2018, she visited us to donate its 100 millionth book to our collection and host a story time. 🦋❤️
Dolly Parton reads to children in the Library’s Great Hall in 2018. Photo by Shawn Miller.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
My thesis on every South Asian crisis of note is that we learn almost nothing contemporaneously and much after the fact. This little disclosure from India that a loitering munition hit Kirana Hills seems to keep with that: www.ndtv.com/india-news/o...
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Matthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
This is a great idea—a weekly gov’t/industry risk assessment meeting developing actionable ideas, reporting to a White House official with power to act on them. Things are moving fast and the response has to keep up.
nytimes.com
Opinion | We Know the Risks of A.I. We Need to Act. (Gift Article)
A.I. could turn one of our country’s worst habits into a national security crisis.
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Samuel Bendett @sambendett.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Check out this highly relevant WarOnTheRocks article on the Russian military promotions from my CNA colleagues @russmil.bsky.social @gabrielairosa.bsky.social Julian Waller and Cornell Overfield. warontherocks.com/russias-next...
warontherocks.com
Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership
Judged by the initial strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine some time ago. Yet
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
If this happens then RIP Forward Deterrence, I guess.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
On April 11, 2024, soon after Annie Jacobsen’s “Nuclear War: A Scenario” was published, I replied to her tweet about an excerpt of it in TIME, pointing out several significant factual errors (including about the origin of the “Football”). She DM’d me, asking for “a brief discussion,” adding …
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LizW @cave-malum.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
This is appalling. Records from the Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs are posted online via the DTIC. Records include clinical trial awards and annual and final reports. These records are crucial for oversight of research w/vulnerable subjects, e.g. autistic kids.
cdmrp.health.mil
Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs
The Congressionally Directed Medical Research Programs transforms health care through innovative and impactful research by responsibly managing collaborative research that discovers, develops, and del...
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Here's a fun update on my attempts to get papers ready for APSA... Paper 1 that draws heavily from unclassified reports from across DOD? Yeah those were mostly on DTIC. Paper 2 that relies on FRUS? Yeah that's supposed to have a Reagan case study but most of those volumes still aren't cleared.
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Dan Kaszeta FRHistS @dankaszeta.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The closure of public access to DTIC is actually very bad for people working in defence and military affairs in many different disciplines.
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SMH Historians @smh-historians.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The Board of Trustees of the Society for Military History has approved the following statement of protest regarding the recent closure of public access to the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC).
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Trump says North Korea has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons." 57 is an oddly specific number. A short 🧵on why the real number is almost certainly higher.
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🇵🇸Martin “Doomsday” Pfeiffer🖖🏳️‍🌈 @nuclearanthro.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Fun story: Tax cuts that benefit the wealthy are the major driver of our ballooning debt. \https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/compsc/v36y2019i3p227-247.html
Screenshot of journal article that reads as follows:

Title (upper left):
"Is US grand strategy self-defeating?
Deep engagement, military spending
and sovereign debt"

Journal info, upper right:
"Conflict Management and Peace Science
2019, Vol. 36(3) 227–247
 The Author(s) 2016
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/0738894216674953
journals.sagepub.com/home/cmp"

Author info mid vertical page and left justified:
"Carla Norrlof
University of Toronto, Canada

William C.Wohlforth
Dartmouth College, USA"

Abstract below the author info:

"Abstract
Questions regarding the economic consequences of US grand strategy have gained new salience.
This article provides an empirical test of the relationship between US military expenditures and
public debt and clarifies the real constraints the US faces issuing debt. Neither results from the
statistical analysis nor the economic theory of sovereign debt support the retrenchment position
regarding the impact of military spending on public debt (1973–2015). Tax cuts are the most significant
determinant of debt not military spending, social benefits or interest payments. Evaluating
new hypotheses about alternative mechanisms through which military spending may damage the
economy remains a priority."
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Jamie Withorne @jamiewithorne.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
In case you missed it from earlier this summer!🌞
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/08/2026
Incredible. When E—n M—k & his crew obliterated USAID in a weekend, they deleted a vast trove of publicly-funded knowledge: the Development Experience Clearinghouse. A Canadian high school student (!) happened to have downloaded the entire thing for a project. AidData has now posted it for all.
aiddata.org
Before reimagining development data, remember what we’ve learned
Why we’re publishing a free, searchable, and ungated archive featuring a quarter-century of USAID evaluation reports.
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Happy for our Solo Instrumental Music win, but how on earth did we not only lose the Turf Bowl, but didn't even break into the top ten?
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Dabo doing his best impression of Clemson football in the transfer portal era.
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
I'm supposed to be getting around and getting on with my day, but I am pinned under an immovable object.
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Matthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
A solemn day. A day to remember the suffering and loss from the atomic bombing of Hiroshima—and to rededicate ourselves to working to prevent nuclear weapons from ever being detonated in war again. Read the memories of the hibakusha: hibakushastories.org
hibakushastories.org
Hibakusha Stories
Hibakusha Stories is thrilled that Nihon Hidankyo has won the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. Since 2008, Hibakusha Stories has provided a forum for Hibakusha & members of Hidankyo to tell their stories
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
🧵Can't get numb to this: in the Iran War, we have a total vacuum of leadership in the Pentagon and State Dept amid a strategic disaster of America's own making. Two pieces show how: first, Hegseth blaming Trump's bad info on near-empty missile stockpiles on a deputy. wapo.st/4hQVTF0 1/
wapo.st
Trump, Hegseth clashed at Camp David over Iran missile depletion concerns
At a Camp David summit this weekend, President Trump demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over extreme munitions shortages.
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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
🇺🇦❗️Zelensky proposes a truce in the air, an energy truce, freezing the war on the front line and starting difficult negotiations. He is also ready to meet with Putin, — Podoliak.
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
If that's all Scott Harris can get for the best pitcher in baseball, he needs to be fired.
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Chris Vannini @chrisvannini.com · 02/08/2026
With tonight's win, the Tigers are 2.5 games out of the wildcard, with the third-best run differential in the AL. Excited to see how the front office helps this team make a run. .... Ah.
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Joseph Cox @josephcox.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
New from 404 Media: Google Earth has introduced an AI feature that lets anyone fabricate completely bullshit satellite images. In our own tests, we added a “bomb blast and crater” to an area of Los Angeles. This is a misinformation time bomb, will 100% be abused www.404media.co/google-earth...
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Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
haha bio nerds its your turn to suffer
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Seth Trueger @mdaware.org · 17/07/2026
Bart Say the Line meme:
Outbreak of cyclosporiasis occurring in michigan.

The CDC has a cyclospora lab, DOGE downsized it last year.
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Zachary Shirkey @zachary-shirkey.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Which Ron Johnson embarrassed Wisconsin worse: Senator Ron Johnson doing his job badly on a daily basis. Michigan running back Ron Johnson who ran for 347 yards and 5 TDs in 1968 against the Badgers?
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John Drennan @j-dren.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Check out my new report, which examines Ukraine's battlefield innovations, how Kyiv is reshaping the terms of its defense partnerships, and why military hardware transfers far more readily than the operational experience needed to make it work. tdcenter.org/2026/07/21/u...
tdcenter.org
The Arsenal of Experience: Ukraine’s Emerging Role as a Security Provider in Europe and Beyond
Transatlantic Dialogue Center (TDC) is a non-governmental and non-partisan think tank that provides high-quality policy advice to private and public clients. The network of our friends and partners in...
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Chloe N East (she/her) @chloeneast.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
My paper is out today in PNAS documenting how ICE activity in Trump 2.0 compares to the last 10 years and the mismatch between the action and the rhetoric. Joint with the fabulous @caitlinpatler.bsky.social and @elizabethacox.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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The Conversation U.S. @us.theconversation.com · 28/07/2026
Extremist groups are experimenting with AI, just like the rest of us. Islamic State and al-Qaida are harnessing the power of AI to generate more propaganda. theconversation.com/al-qaida-and...
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Matthew Bunn @matthew-bunn.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Lots of talk about bombing Pickaxe Mountain, the deep underground facility near Natanz. But not clear U.S. bunker-busting bombs can get it -- which is why it wasn't hit before. Could close the entrance... Otherwise, unless they have a new idea, would likely require ground forces...
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F.D. Shook III @fds3rd.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Ten killed in Russian attack on drone exhibition near #Kyiv #Europe #Russia #Ukraine
bbc.com
Ten killed in Russian attack on drone exhibition near Kyiv
The event, attended by prominent members of the Ukrainian defence industry, was hit by ballistic missiles in the middle of the day.
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Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
My latest chapter with Sumit Ganguly on Chinese and Pakistani nuclear strategies is now out in The Oxford Handbook of Warfare in Asia. We initially drafted the chapter six years ago, luckily we've been able to update it as several critical events have since happened academic.oup.com/edited-volum...
academic.oup.com
Chinese and Pakistani Nuclear Postures and Strategies
Abstract. This chapter discusses the nuclear politics of China and Pakistan. Each country is modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal, with China purs
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