Sign in

Michael Clemens

@mclem.org
23K followers 3.2K following 4.7K posts

Economist and professor at School of Government & Policy, Johns Hopkins University. Fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, IZA, CReAM, CGD. Assoc. Editor JEP. Personal views only. Web: mclem.org ORCID: 0000-0003-1354-0965

PostsRepliesMedia
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 19h
The US Administration will announce later this week its new $100,000 tax on international students who stay to work ('Optional Practical Training') This is not the H-1B visa tax. It's separate and additional. I analyze some likely effects of the new OPT tax here—> www.iza.org/publications...
iza.org
Taxes on International Students: Demand and Supply Response for Post-Graduation Foreign Workers on Optional Practical Training
The US government has proposed various taxes on high-skill immigration. The effects of such taxes hinge on price elasticities of demand and supply tha...
1228
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 21h
"The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance" by David J. Price and Jae Song Just out in @aeajournals.bsky.social —> doi.org/10.1257/app....
0144
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 22h
"How to Build a Policy School" Santi Ruiz of @ifp.bsky.social interviews our powerhouse dean, a nice summary of what we're building here at @jhu.edu —> www.statecraft.pub/p/how-to-bui...
How to Build a Policy School
“We’re not reading the IKEA instructions.”
Santi Ruiz
9 hours ago
My guest today is Will Howell.

Will is the inaugural dean of the School of Government & Policy at Johns Hopkins, which welcomes its first class in fall 2028. His argument is that the standard policy masters degree is no longer fit for purpose. I happen to agree.
050
Reposted by Michael Clemens
IZA@LISER @iza.org · 28/09/2026
🌍 Restricting international #STEM students would cost the U.S. economy billions 🆕IZA Discussion Paper by @mclem.org, J. Neufeld & A. Nice examines what would happen if policy changes restricted the # of intl. STEM graduates transitioning into the U.S. workforce. 🔗 www.iza.org/publications... 1/2
162
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 28/09/2026
Corruption of our American institutions harms all of us. In a million ways that we cannot ever fight as individuals, or even trace to their cause. It harms every Conservative and every Liberal American. Condoning or even encouraging corruption does not help anyone’s “side“.
0226
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 28/09/2026
Our nonpartisan statistical agencies are not just pillars of our public service, but of democracy itself, because the facts they produce are necessary for citizens to hold their government accountable. This atrocity at our Census Bureau must be understood as a trial balloon.
0176
Reposted by Michael Clemens
National Foundation for American Policy @nfapresearch.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
If the Trump admin $103,265 H-1B fee rule stands, DHS could, in theory, set application fees of $10 million in every immigration category and block all immigrants & temporary visa holders, nullifying U.S. laws on legal immigration. @mclem.org @douglasrivlin.bsky.social www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
forbes.com
DHS Overestimated Revenue In H-1B Fee Immigration Rule By $6.1 Billion
A new analysis finds DHS overestimated by $6.1 billion the annual revenue it would receive by imposing a $103,265 fee on H-1B petitions.
0137
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 25/09/2026
This statement by a top US official is false: many have a legal status. It is also deceptive: many others lack legal status only because his own Administration removed it. But setting facts aside, this is a deeply shocking statement from a person responsible for decisions with life/death effects.
0256
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 25/09/2026
Our American elections are free and secure. The smear campaign against them is an attempt to acquire powers to subvert them.
012838
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Matt Ford @mford.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Ezra Klein asked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang about AI making kids worse at math and reading. Huang’s reply: “Does it matter?” Then he said he doesn’t know his own address or phone number. “We’re going to lose some fine intellectual dexterity.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/o...
So the message of this research out of China, where you were seeing a lot of kids using A.I. to help them, was that when they were using the A.I., they were getting things done faster. But it turned out that the skills they were learning were not holding, that their actual personal performance, at least in the way we traditionally measure it, was degrading.

What do you think when you hear that?

The last part — I completely agree. Try to get a kid to do long division right now. The multiplication table is starting to be forgotten. Doing square roots, my goodness. Basic math is being forgotten. Does it matter?

That’s my question for you.

Yeah. I don’t think it does. I don’t think it does.

But there must be some set of skills that matter.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. But maybe not those. We’re going to discover new ones. Just maybe not those.

There are a lot of skills that don’t matter. My first confession, I actually don’t know my address.And I ——

I don’t really believe that to be true.

It’s completely true. Janine will tell you and Lori will tell you.

One day I had to pump gas — it was a few years ago. They needed my ZIP code, and I panicked. I didn’t know my ZIP code. I don’t know my telephone number. I forget these things. I can live with it.

But let me take the other side because I don’t want to fall into a thing where, because some skills can be safely offloaded ——

Yeah.

I also can’t get anywhere without a mapping system now. Never could, frankly. But I’m a big reader. And one of the skills I really value, one of the capacities I have that I really value is an attention span formed on physical books.

You’re a big reader. I’ve read about the kind of reading you do. And there is, prior to A.I., a lot of concern and noticing among college professors and others that the way people use the internet has probably shortened attention spans.
Some skills can be safely given away. Others are valuable. They are capacities that are needed for that flexibility, for that creative thinking, for that focus. It can’t be the case that everything can be traded off.Some skills can be safely given away. Others are valuable. They are capacities that are needed for that flexibility, for that creative thinking, for that focus. It can’t be the case that everything can be traded off.

Yeah. Well, I think that we’re going to lose some finer intellectual dexterity, but we’re going to be better systems thinkers.

Today’s engineers are far better systems thinkers than I was when I graduated from school. But I was a much better transistor thinker.

What do you mean by systems thinker?

They think of large systems. Today’s computers have trillions, hundreds of trillions of transistors in them. When I first graduated from school, the first chip I worked on had 200 transistors. I knew every one of them by name. No engineer does that today. Most engineers now work well above the transistor, well above the functionality, and they’re cobbling things together to do things.

So you need to think much more about systems and interactions of systems. So some of the lower-level knowledge is gone.
58854721497
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Dr Abeba Birhane @abeba.blacksky.app · 24/09/2026
over the past few weeks several AI evaluation/cybersecurity experts have explained how what's happening is a result of human incompetence rather than "AI going rogue". I'm begging the media to show a shred of journalistic integrity and stop parroting what altman or amodei say
6336761438
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Most people have no idea how much international students are the lifeblood of higher education. But they’re about to learn. Sigh.
322235585
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 19/09/2026
Obsessive focus on the state of your subordinates' genitals is the hallmark of something, and that something is neither effective leadership nor military success.
1022648
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 23/09/2026
A free press is a central pillar of democracy, as the Framers profoundly understood. This highlights the nature and effects of current attacks on our free press.
27123
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 23/09/2026
The United States faces enormous productivity losses from its current policy of international student exclusion. These arise from the consequent loss of STEM workers and the innovation they catalyze. Thank you @iza.org for this nice summary of our research —> www.iza.org/en/news/brai...
BRAIN FREEZE: The economic costs of restricting international STEM students
IZA@LISER Network | September 22, 2026
Proposed policy restrictions on foreign STEM graduates could cost the U.S. economy hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
0216
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 23/09/2026
‘How far back in time can you understand English?’ HT @jobium.bsky.social
deadlanguagesociety.com
How far back in time can you understand English?
An experiment in language change
0227
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 23/09/2026
This coin is illegal. The laws of our Congress specifically ban coinage depicting a living president (31 U.S. Code § 5112). What better metaphor could there be for the numb shattering of our constitutional order, than a $1 coin being sold to the American people for $10?
520666
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 23/09/2026
This piece by my brilliant @piie.com colleage @adamposen.bsky.social may be the first time you have seen the United States described accurately as what its ruling regime has quickly made it: a "lesser power".
foreignaffairs.com
China Still Has What America Needs
The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.
0157
Reposted by Michael Clemens
David McKenzie @dmckenzie.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Recently out in World Development, my paper on where & how the World Bank spends and lends money on international migration (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...). Today's blog summarizes some takeaways, & asks also where you can spend your charity dollars (blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...)
sciencedirect.com
074
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 07/09/2026
Registration is open, free, limited, & required. Great set of research presentations lined up on education, health, economy, mutual aid & more. Learn about the frontier evidence and connect with those working to generate it. docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
218783
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 22/09/2026
As a US citizen, I protest this filthy, bloodthirsty policy statement in the strongest possible terms.  America’s vast influence abroad and at home has depended on our country meaning something other than slobbering brutality. Shattering that harms all Americans, Conservative and Liberal.
06312
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"Republican who oversees South Dakota’s elections endorses a Democrat in the race to succeed her" apnews.com/article/sout...
341380
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
FUKUYAMA: “.. Accelerationists tend to be very intelligent people, but that intelligence tends to be narrowly mathematical. We know how to do many things like produce electricity or clean water .. the problem is a failure of implementation.” www.persuasion.community/p/why-i-chan...
1319842
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 22/09/2026
“Americans must urgently rescue their democratic experiment. Their ability to do so is critical to reversing the illiberal tide that is rising globally. Only if Americans get their own democratic house in order…will they be able to ensure the arc of history again bends toward more freedom.”
nytimes.com
Opinion | The End of American Exceptionalism? (Gift Article)
Liberal democracy is in worldwide retreat, including in its birthplace — the United States.
095
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 20/09/2026
The US President is claiming, and this is real, that the military is demanding he build a massive monument to himself across the river from Washington because they have nowhere else to store ammunition or deploy drones. The site, which I pass often, is just down the road from THE PENTAGON.
0367
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 19/09/2026
This miracle is the fruit of generations of enormous and bipartisan investments of public research support for our universities. Future versions of this miracle are what we are currently losing, due to the US Administration’s decision to shatter the public’s partnership with our universities. 
018789
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 19/09/2026
The US President has proclaimed a new $100,000 tax on H-1B visa workers —> www.whitehouse.gov/presidential... He is renewing a $100K tax he proclaimed last year, *which was ruled illegal* in federal court —> www.fragomen.com/insights/uni...
whitehouse.gov
Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION On September 19, 2025, Proclamation 10973 (Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Every child deserves a safe and nurturing home w...
0217
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Greg Folkers @gregfolkers.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
NEJM: The End of the War on Biomedical Science? by David Blumenthal and James A. Morone @davidblumenthal.bsky.social @nejm.org depending on continued activism, perhaps room for optumism bit.ly/4yNxiWZ 💥
075
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 19/09/2026
Great to see @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com ‘s brilliant and timely book in the wild 📚
2173
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Alex Wild @alexwild.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Ultimately, this letter from NSF is an announcement that universities will be funded a lot less and politically-connected industry will be funded a lot more. Fancy words around old-fashioned corruption.
nsf.gov
NSF leadership in a new golden age of science
The U.S. National Science Foundation was established in 1950 to keep American discovery at the frontier. That mission has not changed. The science and technology ecosystem around it has...
7319169
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 19/09/2026
This humiliation of our military service members is beyond words.
014054
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 18/09/2026
It is illegal for the US President to tear down our beloved Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, a national treasure created by our Congress, under law. It is sick and poisonous for any Liberal or Conservative US President to openly conspire to spit on the laws he swore to uphold.
nytimes.com
Trump Air Force One Photos Fuel Kennedy Center Demolition Speculation
Images captured through the windows of Air Force One showed President Trump reviewing a poster with the title “Kennedy Center DEMOLISHED.”
0113
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 18/09/2026
This is illegal. The president is not the CEO of the country nor the owner of the White House, a great institution owned by the American public. Punishing media for dissent excretes on American values and our Constitution. It sullies all of us, every Conservative and every Liberal.
03112
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 18/09/2026
We scraped through the data and found that 50% of all clinical trials are at risk of being cancelled. 1,026 cancer trials 273 pediatric trials 115 heart disease trials 184 diabetes trials This is unacceptable and inhumane.
415688
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Professa Murray @kalimurray.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The funny thing before the birthright citizenship debate I had an encountered Ilan as an originalist administrative law scholar and it sounds like the most useful part of this book is grounded in that work. Legal history is a different game, though, and he made some serious errors in method.
45413
Reposted by Michael Clemens
David Dayen @ddayen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Once upon a time, Congress had its own in-house think tank that would research and suggest remedies for technical problems politicians might not have a handle on. Might be a good resource now, ay? Here's @maxmoranhi.bsky.social on the long-lost Office of Technology Assessment:
prospect.org
What Congress Actually Needs to Do About AI: Staff Up - The American Prospect
In 1995, Newt Gingrich lobotomized Congress’s technical brain trust. It should be rebuilt.
517774
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 18/09/2026
"Spain's self-inflicted migration crisis" by the brilliant and trenchant Hein de Haas A concise and exposition of why border crises, a product of policy, happen and will continue to happen —>
heindehaas.substack.com
Spain’s self-inflicted migration crisis
What really drives migration from Morocco
1137
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 18/09/2026
The US Congress has the power of the purse under our Constitution. Expenditures mandated by law are not up to the whims of the Executive branch, which has no such power. That is our money. Mandated by our laws. Shattering our Constitution harms all Conservative & Liberal Americans.
apnews.com
Trump administration has cut or frozen $177 billion in grants across every state, analysis shows
An analysis finds that the Trump administration has cut or frozen up to $177 billion in federal grants since the president took office for his second term.
06633
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 18/09/2026
Handing over our public health system to incompetent quacks will kill Americans. It will kill Conservative Americans and Liberal Americans.
0243
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 17/09/2026
Every conversation I have with an AI expert these days feels like “what great shows do you expect to see on Broadway?”, over dinner on the Titanic
0122
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 17/09/2026
This is literally the same bizarrely false belief cherished by Turkey’s dictator-for-life Erdoğan, based on which he inflicted hyperinflation on his defenseless citizens.
03810
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 17/09/2026
No Democrat or Republican with such staggering economic ignorance should be allowed within miles of the Oval Office. It’s like the Surgeon General saying “surgery it just another word for murder”. It’s too bizarre to be just incompetent. Americans are forced to sit on this bus. No one is driving.
1217
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 16/09/2026
The US Administration is poised to announce a new $100,000 tax on international students who work even briefly after graduation. This is not the H-1B tax, it's new and additional. Today @iza.org released my new estimates of the economic effects of that tax —>
iza.org
Taxes on International Students: Demand and Supply Response for Post-Graduation Foreign Workers on Optional Practical Training
The US government has proposed various taxes on high-skill immigration. The effects of such taxes hinge on price elasticities of demand and supply tha...
1135
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 16/09/2026
Today's blast from the @aeajournals.bsky.social features my study on the effects of immigration for manual jobs, with @ethan-lewis.bsky.social We use nationwide, natural randomization of visa access to test the effects on US firms and workers —>
aeaweb.org
Winning the visa lottery
Evidence from a US government lottery shows that restricting foreign low-skill workers shrinks businesses without creating jobs for Americans.
1216
Reposted by Michael Clemens
C. Kirabo Jackson @kirabojackson.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
If spending more on schools raises the earnings of the children who benefit, does it eventually make the whole economy richer? My new NBER paper examines this using school-finance reforms. 🧵 www.nber.org/papers/w35755
nber.org
The Macroeconomic Returns to School Finance Reforms: Micro-Calibrated Predictions Meet Causal Evidence
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
112050
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Mike Walker @newnarrative.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
State of U.S. democracy reaches new low, report finds www.npr.org/2026/09/15/n...
npr.org
State of U.S. democracy reaches new low, report finds
A new global democracy report finds the U.S. at its lowest level of democratic performance in the 50 years it has been measured.
27731
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
government efficiency www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/u...
nytimes.com
Federal Employees Were Paid $9.5 Billion Not to Work in 2025 Under DOGE Effort
As part of the Department of Government Efficiency’s program to shrink the federal work force, paid administrative leave costs rose by 435 percent.
19514206
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Kevin Shih @kevinshih.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The Call for Papers for the 2027 Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) Annual Meeting is now open! Submit your papers (deadline Oct 31): www.sole-jole.org/upcoming-mee... Hope to see you there -- April 30 - May 1 at the Hyatt Regency in Baltimore, Maryland!
sole-jole.org
Upcoming Meeting
Call for Papers is available and submissions are open!
087
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Alex Ip 葉清霖 @alexip718.com · 15/09/2026
I was in the United States on OPT until the Trump administration wrongfully denied my STEM Extension request. Charging my institution (*not* the employer) $100,000 per head is disturbing and basically ends all forms of legal immigration unless you're Polish, Hungarian, or white South African
45926
Reposted by Michael Clemens
National Foundation for American Policy @nfapresearch.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A court blocked a Trump admin rule limiting international students to 4 years, with a judge writing, “The government’s contention that the rule is necessary to safeguard national security borders on the absurd.” Research by @mclem.org figured prominently in the ruling. www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...
forbes.com
Judge Blocks Immigration Rule Limiting Students To Four Years
A judge granted universities nationwide preliminary relief against an immigration rule restricting international students to four years.
044