Sign in

Gabriela I. Rosa

@gabrielairosa.bsky.social
208 followers 109 following 89 posts

Bori de Toa Alta - Analyst @CNA_org Russia Studies Program - I write about Russia + European Security for the military-intellectual complex - Opinions my own

PostsRepliesMedia
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Who will be Russia's Next Top General? We find that the most likely candidate to replace Gerasimov may be Col. Gen. Andrey Mordvichev. 🪖⬇️ My colleagues and I summarize the findings of our latest report for WOTR: warontherocks.com/russias-next... 1/?
warontherocks.com
Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership
Judged by the initial strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine some time ago. Yet
131
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Who will be Russia‘s next top general? CNA colleagues and I looked at this from a couple angles to understand what externally-observable variables seem to matter for making Russia’s highest ranks. Career trajectory: ✅ Age at promotions: ✅ Hero of Russia: ❌ warontherocks.com/russias-next...
warontherocks.com
Russia’s Next Top General: Promotions in Russian Military Leadership
Judged by the initial strategic goals set by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022, Russia’s military lost its war against Ukraine some time ago. Yet
152
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Major release by the @CNA_org Russia Studies Program. Have you ever wondered what promotion & award patterns in the Russian military reveal about the evolution of the Russian military elite? 1/? See it here: www.cna.org/analyses/202...
cna.org
The Future of Russia’s Military Elite: Promotions, Careers, and Advancement in the Russian Senior Officer Corps
The Russian military elite consists of decision-making, decision-influencing, and decision-implementing individuals who plan and coordinate Russia’s wars; command Russia’s armies, navies, and other mi...
130
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Thanks to Russia Matters and the Eurasia Review for picking up our piece.
011
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I argue that the recent Russian and Belarusian exercises have revealed a level of deeper theoretical integration between the two than other analysts anticipated. 1/? www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
In The Latest Russia-Belarus Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercise, Putin and Lukashenka Show Teeth - Foreign Policy Research Institute
In mid-May, Belarus and Russia announced that they would conduct military exercises involving the delivery of nuclear weapons to units in the field. Over the
112
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
In our latest collaboration, @alxgraef.bsky.social and I, scrutinize the conditions under which public commentators can shape Russian foreign policy, despite strategic decision-making being tightly controlled by the President and his inner circle. 1/? academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic...
academic.oup.com
The “Karaganov Debate”: How Policy Entrepreneurs Shape Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine
Abstract. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, public references to nuclear weapons within Russia have surged. A key moment came
132
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
In 2023, I wrote a public report that provided a first look at the Russian military-medical system in Ukraine and the issues it faced. Here's an update on our research at CNA on Russian Military Medical Adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine War. See our poster here: www.cna.org/quick-looks/... 1/2
143
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
If I publish a deep dive on Russian medical command and control, will anyone actually read it?
140
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
I've been debating how to express my thoughts on Benito Antonio's performance on Sunday. With it, has arrived great joy but also a sense of melancholy. Turns out that @ricky_martin articulated it for me. Cuando uno de los nuestros llega, llegamos todos. www.elnuevodia.com/opinion/punt...
elnuevodia.com
Opinión | Cuando uno de los nuestros llega, llegamos todos
Ganaste sin cambiar el color de tu voz…Ganaste siendo fiel a Puerto Rico, escribe Ricky Martín
010
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
My colleague and I discuss the Oreshnik "deployment" in the link below. It's informative, but we also have a blast. We seek to provide insights by pairing textual/strategic cultural analysis with technical realities. www.cna.org/our-media/po...
cna.org
The Oreshnik Comes to Belarus
<p>Belarus has become the latest stage for Russia&rsquo;s military ambitions, hosting the powerful Oreshnik missile system. We discuss the specifics of this missile system, and what this deployment me...
010
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Lots of hot takes on Oreshnik today, with many analysts focused on signaling. My addition is simple: don’t underestimate calls among Russian strategists to use the conflict in Ukraine as a testing ground for weapon systems.
040
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
The SMF wishes us a happy new year, folks: t.me/stratdela/2136
t.me
#STRATDELA
🇷🇺🇧🇾 Oreshnik missile system is put on combat duty in Republic of Belarus A solemn ceremony was held in the Republic of Belarus to put a unit equipped with an Oreshnik mobile ground-based missile sys...
010
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Some great stuff here. See my thoughts below. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Russia likely placing new hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find
Deployment of the Oreshnik would underscore the Kremlin’s growing reliance on the threat of nuclear weapons as it seeks to deter NATO members from supplying Kyiv with weapons.
1122
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Eilish Hart @eilishhart.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I couldn’t be prouder of the reporting The Beet has produced. That’s why I’m sorry to say that the newsletter will be pausing publication. Read my letter to subscribers here: mailchi.mp/meduza.io/le...
3103
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
The Moscow Times @themoscowtimes.com · 13/12/2025
BREAKING: Belarus has released 123 prisoners, including opposition leader Maria Kalesnikava and Nobel Peace Prize-winning rights activist Ales Bialiatski, in a deal brokered by the U.S. Read more: www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/13/b...
23515
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for @bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
134
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Liviu Horovitz @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus marks Moscow’s effort to adapt its deterrence posture to a shifting geopolitical landscape by evolving its escalation management strategy, analyze @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & Paul Schwartz @cna.org 6/10
cna.org
111
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/? www.cna.org/analyses/202...
163
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/? www.cna.org/analyses/202...
143
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
In this report, my colleagues, @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social, Paul Schwartz, and I argue that despite its technical-tactical innovation in its war against Ukr, Russia still approaches a potential war w/ NATO with the same operational assumptions it had before 2022. 1/? www.cna.org/analyses/202...
cna.org
Russian Concepts of Future Warfare Based on Lessons from the Ukraine War
This paper examines the evolution of military strategy and conventional operations over the Russia-Ukraine War.
220
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Come visit us at AMSUS.
030
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
If you're at ISA 2025 tomorrow, my partner in crime, @alxgraef from @ifshhamburg.bsky.social will be presenting a rough draft of our paper at a panel from 1:45pm-3:30pm titled "The Karaganov Debate: Experts, the Public Sphere and Nuclear Policymaking in Russia." Go check it out.
020
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Sergey Rogov dedicated a good bit of his life to trying to advance, and more lately save, prospects for arms control, even as his health declined. Always intelligent, often infuriating, and never unwilling to talk. I agree with Andrey--this is a big loss.
1157
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Glad to have contribute to this and to have had the opportunity to collaborate with my amazing mentor, @olyaoliker.bsky.social. Interested in European security and what happens next? Read here: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...
crisisgroup.org
Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future | Crisis Group
What happens with the war in Ukraine matters beyond its borders, as events there will shape the larger standoff between Russia and the West. The U.S. and European powers can manage the risks of a chan...
152
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Hot off the press. We had to wait a while to get this out but check out the great work of my colleagues: www.cna.org/reports/2025...
cna.org
The Evolving Russia-Iran Relationship
The Russia-Iran relationship has changed over the past decade, and this report examines the relationship in temporal and thematic dimensions.
032
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
Last week, my colleague @sambendett.bsky.social, @exit266.bsky.social, and I took to twitter spaces to discuss Russian military medicine in Ukraine along with UGV/UAV developments. Listen to our discussion here: x.com/sambendett/s...
x.com
x.com
072
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
A good day to reiterate our work on Russian domestic debates about the credibility of nuclear threats and potential nuclear employment. See our work here if you want to read about how the events that took place today are part of an ongoing conversation since early 2022: www.cna.org/reports/2024...
cna.org
Moscow Does Not Believe in Tears
Moscow’s nuclear weapons doctrine is at an inflection point. This report examines the debates in Russia about the ineffectiveness of nuclear weapons threats.
012
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 17/11/2024
On the evolution of Russian military medicine since 2022, by @gabrielairosa.bsky.social for CNA. Really informative. Check it out.
cna.org
042
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Little is available in English about the experience of Russia’s military health system since Feb 2022. Our review found several challenges affecting its ability to care for the wounded in Ukraine. 1/? Read the latest by the CNA Russia Studies Program here: www.cna.org/reports/2024...
cna.org
We Need a Medic!
The paper finds that Russia’s war on Ukraine has stressed the Russian military medical system and that the system continues to be at risk of being overburdened because of the demands of the protracted...
110
Reposted by Gabriela I. Rosa
Josh Chin @joshchin.bsky.social · 29/03/2024
Hi Folks: Firing up this account for the first time to note that today marks one year since the Russian government detained my colleague Evan Gershkovic in an act of supreme cynicism and cowardice. WSJ’s response is this stunning front page. #FreeEvan
151085348
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 13/12/2023
My colleague ⁦@alxgraef and I make sense of what has transpired in the past month at the OSCE and discuss the CFE Treaty’s demise and its implications: www.justsecurity.org/90612/the-cf...
justsecurity.org
The CFE Treaty’s Demise and the OSCE: Time to Think Anew?
NATO's suspension of the pact and Russia's earlier withdrawal compounds the OSCE's crisis, as conventional arms control in Europe collapses.
030
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 21/11/2023
La baby.
010
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 20/10/2023
Allegedly, Belarus will continue to implement the Treaty with other state parties. But this sets up the scene for an interesting meeting of states-parties taking place in November. Poland announced earlier that it would cease implementation of the Treaty in relation to the Republic of Belarus.
010
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 20/10/2023
Belarus suspends CFE cooperation with Czechia and Poland. Apparently, Belarus communicated that it would not send the CFE information and notifications and would not host verification inspections via the OSCE communications network. belta.by/politics/vie...
010
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 03/10/2023
My colleague, @alxgraef, and I make an unpopular argument. In our piece, we argue that ditching the CFE Treaty may not contribute to all that much to the security of NATO members at the moment. Check it out below: fpri.org/article/2023/0… via @fpri.bsky.social
fpri.org
1
040