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Pavel Podvig

@russianforces.org
8.2K followers 321 following 914 posts

Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here. All coordinates are at russianforces.org/podvig

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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13h
"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/is-the-dea...
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The Insider @theins.press · 28/09/2026
Times report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert @russianforces.org says the system was never deactivated The recent modernization of an underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals sparked speculation over the Soviet Perimeter system.
theins.press
Times report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert Pavel Podvig says the system was never deactivated
Russia has significantly expanded and modernized a secret underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals in recent years, a facility…
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
People should take a deep breath about this "Russia reactivated the Dead Hand system" story. Object 1335 is just an element of nuclear command and control. It's never been deactivated. There is every reason to believe it's never been automatic and isn't now. Some links in reply 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026
Yes, Russia has (finally) completed the construction of that command center in the Urals. No surprises here. www.thetimes.com/article/03e5... The story has some good photos. What's puzzling is that it seems to suggest that survivable command and control is somehow problematic. It is not.
thetimes.com
Revealed: Putin is preparing a base for doomsday nuclear strikes
Exclusive investigation: Operation Dead Hand has been revived to guarantee retaliation if Russia comes under nuclear attack
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Now imagine that during a crisis an AI draws from a huge amount of data to conclude that Russia or China are preparing a nuclear first strike and an under-pressure analyst sends that immediately up the chain.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 18/09/2026
Russia launched a Glonass satellite. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...
Image of a rocket launched from the Plesetsk site
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 16/09/2026
International Panel on Fissile Materials is now on Substack: fissilematerials.substack.com. Subscribe to receive new posts by email. It is free.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/09/2026
Yes and no. It's clear that this was the plan all along. The only surprise is that they admitted it.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/09/2026
Russia apparently planned to launch an ICBM from Dombarovskiy during the 3-5 September window. By all indications it was the Avangard glider. The test appears to have been cancelled. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09..., Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/attempted-...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 29/08/2026
There are signs of an upcoming Sarmat launch (from Dombarovskiy) on September 3. We will see...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/08/2026
Launch of mobile Yars missile from Plesetsk - russianforces.org/blog/2026/08.... Also on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...
Launch of a Yars ICBM
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/08/2026
Launch of a Glonass-K navigation satellite from Plesetsk russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...). Said to be Glonass-K 19L. NORAD lists it as Cosmos-2619, but no official confirmation from Russia.
Photo of a launch of a Soyuz launcher from Plesetsk
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/08/2026
I am wondering if someone has written on the similarities between public reaction to nuclear power and AI. Both seem to be quite complex, capital-intensive technologies pushed by large institutions that have said capital and that tell us they have great promise. 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026
The West is trying to address this issue by expanding its own enrichment capacity fissilematerials.org/blog/2026/06...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026
The uranium enrichment business is complicated. "Russia supplies approximately 44% of global enriched uranium and 20-30% of enriched uranium used in the U.S. and Europe." A good write-up: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
cbc.ca
Russian enriched uranium shipped to Canadian-owned Westinghouse in U.S. | CBC News
While the Russian military attacks Ukraine's power infrastructure, Europe and the U.S. still depend on Russian nuclear fuel to power their electricity grids. Canadian-owned Westinghouse Electric is am...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026
A good take on floating nuclear power plants bellona.org/news/nuclear...
bellona.org
Floating nuclear power was a Russian curiosity. Now others want to give it a shot - Bellona.org
For years, the Akademik Lomonosov looked like one of the nuclear industry’s more eccentric experiments: two reactors mounted on a barge and towed thousands of kilometers to Pevek, a tiny Russian port ...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/08/2026
An update of the Russian early-warning radar network file: russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/russian-ea...). Comments and corrections are welcome.
A Google Earth screenshot showing fans of the Russian early-warning radars
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
81 years ago today, on August 9, 1945, an atomic bomb was dropped upon the city of Nagasaki, Japan, by the United States. This was 3 days after the first atomic attack on Hiroshima.
Nagasaki, bomber's eye view: Close-up view of the head of the mushroom cloud at the Nagasaki explosion, as seen from either the bomber or the observation plane.Nagasaki, distant ground view: Photo of the Nagasaki cloud taken ~15 minutes after the atomic bomb detonation, by Hiromichi Matsuda, stationed at Koyagi-jima Island, some 5 miles / 8 km away.Nagasaki, before and after, aerial views. Nagasaki, ground view, some weeks after the attack.
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 31/07/2026
I used to do some work on the ethical use of satellite and drone imagery for aid and disaster response, and it is genuinely hard to express in words what a dangerous, stupid thing Google is doing by making it easy to use GenAI to create faked satellite imagery:
digitaldigging.org
How to plant a nuclear plant in Iran
The question is: what on earth is Google doing?
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
In 1961, CIA believed the Soviets had 50-100 ICBMs. USAF Intelligence believed it was at least 120, with 300 coming within the year. SAC's Thomas Power though they had 1,000. In reality they had more like 4.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 01/07/2026
Interesting parallels: Dulles in 1955: "[it is vital that] we urgently educate our own and world opinion as to the necessity for the tactical use of atomic weapons." Karaganov et al in 2024: "Convinc[e] our World Majority partners of the legitimacy of a possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia"
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Lewi Whalberg @anno1540.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Finnish ambassador in russia lays flowers at a destroyed memorial to dead Finnish POW’s in Hatsina, russia.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/05/2026
Happy to contribute to the discussion in Norway about the "advanced deterrence" agreement with France 🙂 (translated from Norwegian). This follows the op-ed published last month, also in Norwegian: russianforces.substack.com/p/the-mirage...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
Normally, Russia holds exercises of its nuclear forces in October. This one was in May, which is unusual. It included launches of Yars, Sineva, ALCMs, and Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Iskander. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Launch of a Yars ICBM
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
The nuclear exercise just carried out by Russia involved Belarus and non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia said that actual nuclear weapons have been delivered to the combat units. Which is rather unusual. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image showing an Iskander ballistic missile loaded on a launcher
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
The strategic part of the nuclear exercise: Zirkon, Kinzhal, Tu-95MS at Ukrainka, Yars from a Krona shelter at Plesetsk, Iskander ballistic missile from Kapustin Yar (reportedly by a Belarusian crew). Sineva launch reported but not shown. 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026
Yet another video from the non-strategic exercise t.me/mod_russia/6.... It's quite puzzling, though. Like, the trucks are tarp-covered. Really? In general, Russian MoD and 12GUMO are very careful about their role in all this. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not involved
Image of an Iskander missile loaded on TEL
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026
A strategic exercise in May is somewhat unusual - these are normally held in October - but not unprecedented. There was one in May 2014 russianforces.org/blog/2014/05...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026
Russia decided to join Belarus in its nuclear exercises... Speaking seriously, MoD announced a major exercise on 19-21 May, which will include ICBMs, submarines, cruise missile launches, non-strategic weapons (yes, including those in Belarus). Seems rather large-scale. Timing is rather unusual. 1/2
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/05/2026
Are two successful tests enough to put a missile on combat duty? Probably not. On the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos for tens of years. This they can certainly do. A lot of nuclear deterrence is theater (and not just in Russia).
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 12/05/2026
Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image shows the launch of Sarmat ICBM
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Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 12/05/2026
Putin today promised to deploy Russia's Sarmat ICBM "by the end of this year" — the same pledge he has made at least 10 times since 2021. The only fully successful Sarmat test before today was in April 2022. The missile exploded during a test in Sept 2024. t.me/astrapress/1...
t.me
ASTRA
Путин уже пять лет обещает поставить ядерный «Сармат» на боевое дежурство. Он заявлял об этом как минимум 10 раз с 2021, подсчитала ASTRA В апреле 2021 года Путин в послании Федеральному Собранию за...
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The Barents Observer @thebarentsobserver.com · 12/05/2026
“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.
thebarentsobserver.com
Nuclear forces test Sarmat missile from Plesetsk
“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Penins...
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 09/05/2026
Just a thought - maybe this tells us something. Like, people don't actually believe nuclear weapons are all that dangerous. And they may have a point - nuclear weapon are pretty much useless and unusable.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/05/2026
Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security? Stewart Prager and Denisse Córdova Carrizales argue that it does (and provide a good overview of the SSP) physicstoday.aip.org/opinion/does...
physicstoday.aip.org
Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security?
The answer is relevant to the physics community, especially for scientists who are choosing their research paths.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 03/05/2026
US Space Force updated catalog entries for many Russian military satellites: Cosmos-2600-2608 russianforces.org/blog/2026/02..., 2609-2614 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04..., and 2615-2618 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04.... It is not clear if these are real Cosmos numbers. Russia hasn't said anything
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 30/04/2026
It's not that there are "no easy answers." There are no answers open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
open.substack.com
The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons
The English version of an op-ed published in Norwegian:
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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/04/2026
"The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans." My op-ed in @Forsv_forum "Kjernevåpen for Europa – en illusjon." English version - Web: russianforces.org/podvig/2026/... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Headline in Norwegian: "The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans."
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/04/2026
Angara launch deploys four military satellites on 23 April 2026. Most likely MKA small optical reconnaissance satellites. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image of a launch of ANgara space launcher
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
How many nuclear weapons did the US Air Force want in the late 1950s? An official history says: "a fantastic number." But unfortunately it doesn't quote the actual number. It does quote the Army, however, as wanting over 100,000 "battlefield" nukes, and imagining they could use over 400 per day.
Excerpt from "HISTORY OF THE CUSTODY AND DEPLOYMENT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS, JULY 1945 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1977," Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense (Atomic Energy), February 1978:

"The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Radford, stated that no major expansion of AEC production facilities was justified at the time. Admiral Burke (Navy) and General Twining (Air Force) stated that the Navy and Air Force were satisfied with the 1957-1959 stockpile figures. General Twining, however, also made the remark that the Air Force would like to have a fantastic number of weapons. The Army was even more ambivalent. General Gavin gave 151,000 weapons as the Army's total requirement with 106,000 for tactical battlefield use, 25,000 for air defense and 20,000 for support of our allies. He estimated that a typical field army might use a total of 423 atomic warheads in one day of intense combat not including surface-to-air weapons."
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/04/2026
Launch of multiple military satellites from Plesetsk (on 17 April 2026). Two groups of satellites deployed, mission is unknown, Cosmos designations have not been released. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image of a space rocket launch
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
60 yrs ago today, “The War Game”—the shocking docudrama written/directed/produced by Peter Watkins—had the first of four invitation-only screenings at the British Film Institute’s National Film Theatre in London for members of the establishment after the BBC banned its broadcast on October 6, 1965.
m.ok.ru
Видео Peter Watkins - The War Game (1965) | OK.RU
In this British documentary, a hypothetical Chinese invasion of South Vietnam triggers a new world war between East and West. In the town of Rochester, Kent, the anticipation of a nuclear attack leads...
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
For DOOMSDAY MACHINES this week, a post that has in some sense been in the making for something like a decade. It is a very close look at the "war plan," QUICK STRIKE, featured in the formerly classified 1958 film "The Power of Decision," produced for the USAF. doomsdaymachines.net/p/a-long-loo...
doomsdaymachines.net
A long look at a QUICK STRIKE
The grim realities of a faux nuclear war plan from 1958
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
What a nuclear crisis looks like in NUKEMAP logs... these are hourly unique visitors over the last 24 hours, via Cloudflare.
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
This is pretty much the mildest thing I said about the current situation... perhaps for the best, though... every time I talk to a reporter I come away feeling totally unhinged, because I'm being asked "normal" questions about totally insane things. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u...
Still, Alex Wellerstein, a historian who studies nuclear conflicts, said that even if Mr. Trump does not carry out the extent of his threat, the president’s violent rhetoric damages his credibility as a negotiator and his country’s standing in the world.
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
The reason that the US President has the exclusive authority to order the use of nuclear weapons is because Truman set up the system along those lines after WWII. This is often depicted as either a power grab, or because in the nuclear age such decisions "must" be made quickly. This is false.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 03/04/2026
New Meridian-M communication satellite is in orbit russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
Image of a space launcher leaving a launch pad.
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Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/03/2026
A good take on the context of the war in Iran by Sara Al-Sayed for @ucs.org - The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran blog.ucs.org/sara-al-saye...
blog.ucs.org
The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran
Any debates about nuclear security in the Middle East need to be set within the broader historical context of US and Israeli efforts to advance their interests in the region.
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Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
1. Hitting civilian power plants is a war crime 2. The US has been committing this war crime, to my knowledge, at least since the raid on Hanoi in which John McCain was shot down, which targeted an electric power plant in a dense urban setting giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Middle East war live: Trump sets 48-hour deadline for Iran to open Strait of Hormuz
US president threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if waterway is not opened for shipping
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