Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13h"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/is-the-dea... 1127
Reposted by Pavel PodvigThe Insider @theins.press · 28/09/2026Times report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert @russianforces.org says the system was never deactivated The recent modernization of an underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals sparked speculation over the Soviet Perimeter system.theins.pressTimes report says Russia reactivated its “Dead Hand” nuclear retaliation system — expert Pavel Podvig says the system was never deactivatedRussia has significantly expanded and modernized a secret underground command center inside Mount Kosvinsky Kamen in the Urals in recent years, a facility… 0113
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026People should take a deep breath about this "Russia reactivated the Dead Hand system" story. Object 1335 is just an element of nuclear command and control. It's never been deactivated. There is every reason to believe it's never been automatic and isn't now. Some links in reply 1/2 1219
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 27/09/2026Yes, Russia has (finally) completed the construction of that command center in the Urals. No surprises here. www.thetimes.com/article/03e5... The story has some good photos. What's puzzling is that it seems to suggest that survivable command and control is somehow problematic. It is not.thetimes.comRevealed: Putin is preparing a base for doomsday nuclear strikesExclusive investigation: Operation Dead Hand has been revived to guarantee retaliation if Russia comes under nuclear attack 22713
Reposted by Pavel PodvigJames Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Now imagine that during a crisis an AI draws from a huge amount of data to conclude that Russia or China are preparing a nuclear first strike and an under-pressure analyst sends that immediately up the chain. 56227
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 18/09/2026Russia launched a Glonass satellite. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09... Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-... 033
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 16/09/2026International Panel on Fissile Materials is now on Substack: fissilematerials.substack.com. Subscribe to receive new posts by email. It is free. 032
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 14/09/2026Yes and no. It's clear that this was the plan all along. The only surprise is that they admitted it. 1123
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/09/2026Russia apparently planned to launch an ICBM from Dombarovskiy during the 3-5 September window. By all indications it was the Avangard glider. The test appears to have been cancelled. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/09..., Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/attempted-... 1205
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 29/08/2026There are signs of an upcoming Sarmat launch (from Dombarovskiy) on September 3. We will see... 2143
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/08/2026Launch of mobile Yars missile from Plesetsk - russianforces.org/blog/2026/08.... Also on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-... 042
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/08/2026Launch of a Glonass-K navigation satellite from Plesetsk russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/launch-of-...). Said to be Glonass-K 19L. NORAD lists it as Cosmos-2619, but no official confirmation from Russia. 032
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/08/2026I am wondering if someone has written on the similarities between public reaction to nuclear power and AI. Both seem to be quite complex, capital-intensive technologies pushed by large institutions that have said capital and that tell us they have great promise. 1/2 293
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026The West is trying to address this issue by expanding its own enrichment capacity fissilematerials.org/blog/2026/06... 084
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026The uranium enrichment business is complicated. "Russia supplies approximately 44% of global enriched uranium and 20-30% of enriched uranium used in the U.S. and Europe." A good write-up: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...cbc.caRussian enriched uranium shipped to Canadian-owned Westinghouse in U.S. | CBC NewsWhile the Russian military attacks Ukraine's power infrastructure, Europe and the U.S. still depend on Russian nuclear fuel to power their electricity grids. Canadian-owned Westinghouse Electric is am... 1104
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/08/2026A good take on floating nuclear power plants bellona.org/news/nuclear...bellona.orgFloating nuclear power was a Russian curiosity. Now others want to give it a shot - Bellona.orgFor years, the Akademik Lomonosov looked like one of the nuclear industry’s more eccentric experiments: two reactors mounted on a barge and towed thousands of kilometers to Pevek, a tiny Russian port ... 2115
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/08/2026An update of the Russian early-warning radar network file: russianforces.org/blog/2026/08... (also on Substack russianforces.substack.com/p/russian-ea...). Comments and corrections are welcome. 0188
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 09/08/202681 years ago today, on August 9, 1945, an atomic bomb was dropped upon the city of Nagasaki, Japan, by the United States. This was 3 days after the first atomic attack on Hiroshima. 261037453
Reposted by Pavel PodvigFaine Greenwood @faineg.com · 31/07/2026I used to do some work on the ethical use of satellite and drone imagery for aid and disaster response, and it is genuinely hard to express in words what a dangerous, stupid thing Google is doing by making it easy to use GenAI to create faked satellite imagery:digitaldigging.orgHow to plant a nuclear plant in IranThe question is: what on earth is Google doing? 742396895
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 23/07/2026In 1961, CIA believed the Soviets had 50-100 ICBMs. USAF Intelligence believed it was at least 120, with 300 coming within the year. SAC's Thomas Power though they had 1,000. In reality they had more like 4. 1225
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 01/07/2026Interesting parallels: Dulles in 1955: "[it is vital that] we urgently educate our own and world opinion as to the necessity for the tactical use of atomic weapons." Karaganov et al in 2024: "Convinc[e] our World Majority partners of the legitimacy of a possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia" 250
Reposted by Pavel PodvigLewi Whalberg @anno1540.bsky.social · 30/05/2026Finnish ambassador in russia lays flowers at a destroyed memorial to dead Finnish POW’s in Hatsina, russia. 516945
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/05/2026Happy to contribute to the discussion in Norway about the "advanced deterrence" agreement with France 🙂 (translated from Norwegian). This follows the op-ed published last month, also in Norwegian: russianforces.substack.com/p/the-mirage... 040
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026Normally, Russia holds exercises of its nuclear forces in October. This one was in May, which is unusual. It included launches of Yars, Sineva, ALCMs, and Kinzhal, Tsirkon, Iskander. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 075
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026The nuclear exercise just carried out by Russia involved Belarus and non-strategic nuclear weapons. Russia said that actual nuclear weapons have been delivered to the combat units. Which is rather unusual. Website russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... or Substack open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 1167
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026The strategic part of the nuclear exercise: Zirkon, Kinzhal, Tu-95MS at Ukrainka, Yars from a Krona shelter at Plesetsk, Iskander ballistic missile from Kapustin Yar (reportedly by a Belarusian crew). Sineva launch reported but not shown. 1/2 162
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 21/05/2026Yet another video from the non-strategic exercise t.me/mod_russia/6.... It's quite puzzling, though. Like, the trucks are tarp-covered. Really? In general, Russian MoD and 12GUMO are very careful about their role in all this. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not involved 041
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026A strategic exercise in May is somewhat unusual - these are normally held in October - but not unprecedented. There was one in May 2014 russianforces.org/blog/2014/05... 0102
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 19/05/2026Russia decided to join Belarus in its nuclear exercises... Speaking seriously, MoD announced a major exercise on 19-21 May, which will include ICBMs, submarines, cruise missile launches, non-strategic weapons (yes, including those in Belarus). Seems rather large-scale. Timing is rather unusual. 1/2 1143
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 13/05/2026Are two successful tests enough to put a missile on combat duty? Probably not. On the other hand, these missiles are supposed to sit motionless in silos for tens of years. This they can certainly do. A lot of nuclear deterrence is theater (and not just in Russia). 0122
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 12/05/2026Second successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM. The first one was in April 2022. Deployment to begin this year. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/05... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 193
Reposted by Pavel PodvigKevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 12/05/2026Putin today promised to deploy Russia's Sarmat ICBM "by the end of this year" — the same pledge he has made at least 10 times since 2021. The only fully successful Sarmat test before today was in April 2022. The missile exploded during a test in Sept 2024. t.me/astrapress/1...t.meASTRAПутин уже пять лет обещает поставить ядерный «Сармат» на боевое дежурство. Он заявлял об этом как минимум 10 раз с 2021, подсчитала ASTRA В апреле 2021 года Путин в послании Федеральному Собранию за... 1203
Reposted by Pavel PodvigThe Barents Observer @thebarentsobserver.com · 12/05/2026“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia’s Far East.thebarentsobserver.comNuclear forces test Sarmat missile from Plesetsk“It is the most powerful missile system in the world,” Vladimir Putin said after receiving confirmation that the missile had struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Penins... 0145
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 09/05/2026Just a thought - maybe this tells us something. Like, people don't actually believe nuclear weapons are all that dangerous. And they may have a point - nuclear weapon are pretty much useless and unusable. 351
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 07/05/2026Does nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security? Stewart Prager and Denisse Córdova Carrizales argue that it does (and provide a good overview of the SSP) physicstoday.aip.org/opinion/does...physicstoday.aip.orgDoes nuclear stockpile stewardship’s science diminish global security?The answer is relevant to the physics community, especially for scientists who are choosing their research paths. 052
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 03/05/2026US Space Force updated catalog entries for many Russian military satellites: Cosmos-2600-2608 russianforces.org/blog/2026/02..., 2609-2614 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04..., and 2615-2618 russianforces.org/blog/2026/04.... It is not clear if these are real Cosmos numbers. Russia hasn't said anything 011
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 30/04/2026It's not that there are "no easy answers." There are no answers open.substack.com/pub/russianf...open.substack.comThe Mirage of European Nuclear WeaponsThe English version of an op-ed published in Norwegian: 233
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAndrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Great contribution to the field from my colleague Sarah Ruth Opatowski. The compendium maps and analyzes a decade of nuclear risk reduction proposals across the NPT review process, First Committee, and other multilateral forums. Learn more at our side event at the RevCon on May 6, CR8 112
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 28/04/2026"The Mirage of European Nuclear Weapons. There is no scenario in which nuclear weapons can contribute to the security of Europeans." My op-ed in @Forsv_forum "Kjernevåpen for Europa – en illusjon." English version - Web: russianforces.org/podvig/2026/... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 10165
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 26/04/2026Angara launch deploys four military satellites on 23 April 2026. Most likely MKA small optical reconnaissance satellites. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 051
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 24/04/2026How many nuclear weapons did the US Air Force want in the late 1950s? An official history says: "a fantastic number." But unfortunately it doesn't quote the actual number. It does quote the Army, however, as wanting over 100,000 "battlefield" nukes, and imagining they could use over 400 per day. 1014435
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/04/2026Launch of multiple military satellites from Plesetsk (on 17 April 2026). Two groups of satellites deployed, mission is unknown, Cosmos designations have not been released. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 0144
Reposted by Pavel PodvigStephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 13/04/202660 yrs ago today, “The War Game”—the shocking docudrama written/directed/produced by Peter Watkins—had the first of four invitation-only screenings at the British Film Institute’s National Film Theatre in London for members of the establishment after the BBC banned its broadcast on October 6, 1965.m.ok.ruВидео Peter Watkins - The War Game (1965) | OK.RUIn this British documentary, a hypothetical Chinese invasion of South Vietnam triggers a new world war between East and West. In the town of Rochester, Kent, the anticipation of a nuclear attack leads... 93210
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 09/04/2026For DOOMSDAY MACHINES this week, a post that has in some sense been in the making for something like a decade. It is a very close look at the "war plan," QUICK STRIKE, featured in the formerly classified 1958 film "The Power of Decision," produced for the USAF. doomsdaymachines.net/p/a-long-loo...doomsdaymachines.netA long look at a QUICK STRIKEThe grim realities of a faux nuclear war plan from 1958 48734
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 08/04/2026What a nuclear crisis looks like in NUKEMAP logs... these are hourly unique visitors over the last 24 hours, via Cloudflare. 04815
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 07/04/2026This is pretty much the mildest thing I said about the current situation... perhaps for the best, though... every time I talk to a reporter I come away feeling totally unhinged, because I'm being asked "normal" questions about totally insane things. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/u... 27822
Reposted by Pavel PodvigAlex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 07/04/2026The reason that the US President has the exclusive authority to order the use of nuclear weapons is because Truman set up the system along those lines after WWII. This is often depicted as either a power grab, or because in the nuclear age such decisions "must" be made quickly. This is false. 5438106
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 03/04/2026New Meridian-M communication satellite is in orbit russianforces.org/blog/2026/04... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf... 020
Pavel Podvig @russianforces.org · 23/03/2026A good take on the context of the war in Iran by Sara Al-Sayed for @ucs.org - The US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against Iran blog.ucs.org/sara-al-saye...blog.ucs.orgThe US–Israeli History Behind Their War Against IranAny debates about nuclear security in the Middle East need to be set within the broader historical context of US and Israeli efforts to advance their interests in the region. 074
Reposted by Pavel PodvigMatt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 22/03/20261. Hitting civilian power plants is a war crime 2. The US has been committing this war crime, to my knowledge, at least since the raid on Hanoi in which John McCain was shot down, which targeted an electric power plant in a dense urban setting giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...giftarticle.ft.comMiddle East war live: Trump sets 48-hour deadline for Iran to open Strait of HormuzUS president threatens to ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if waterway is not opened for shipping 930699