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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com
19K followers 2K following 4.3K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The bond yield story just keeps getting starker.
Line chart titled "10-Year Treasury Note" showing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note from late 2025 through September 2026. Treasury yields surged dramatically to 5.29 percent on September 29, 2026, the highest level in the period shown. This represents a sharp 130 basis point increase from the October 2025 low of 3.96 percent and a particularly rapid 45 basis point climb over just the final month. After trading mostly between 4.00 and 4.75 percent for nearly a year, yields broke decisively above 5.00 percent in September 2026, signaling a fundamental shift in borrowing costs and market conditions.
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Scott Imberman @imbernomics.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
New econometric toy alert.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
New post: paulgp.substack.com/p/ai-in-jour...
paulgp.substack.com
AI in journals, conferences, and submissions
A variety of facts about AI’s effect on economics research
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Peter Nencka 📊 @peternka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We're hiring two folks at Miami Econ this year! One health One "applied micro" Dynamic fun department in small town with big town (Cincinnati) nearby! Tell your friends and apply! www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....,
aeaweb.org
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2026 - January 31, 2027
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Eyebrow-raising presentation at @brookings.edu BPEA conference by Columbia's Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh on the enormous scale of the data center build-out and the opaque leverage that's financing it. VIDEO (15 minutes) www.youtube.com/live/UaQDp-G...
youtube.com
BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 2: Presented by The Brookings Institution
YouTube video by Brookings Institution
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Shelly Lundberg @shellyjlundberg.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Shameless self-promotion and a request. My publisher is asking me to encourage Amazon reviews, so.... If you bought How Economics Discovered Women on Amazon and like it, it would help me out if you post a short review. news.ucsb.edu/2026/022818/...
news.ucsb.edu
Economist Shelly Lundberg wins prestigious Mincer Award, releases book on gender economics
Lundberg's Mincer Award for lifetime achievement in economics scholarship comes as her newest book, “How Economics Discovered Women” hits the shelves.
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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A pretty solid week as we head into the meat of the econ job market season #econsky
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Emily Moin @emilymoin.com · 25/09/2026
Gift link, and some reactions herein. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Being a Doctor Will Never Be the Same After A.I. (Gift Article)
I’m confident in my mastery over what doctors do — and less confident about my continued mastery of an ever-evolving universe of facts.
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
It is so good to see @reportermatt.bsky.social, who was in like 80% of my classes in college, become the most influential reporter in Massachusetts. He just loves the place, and you can tell in everything he does. A truly wonderful man making the whole state better.
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 24/09/2026
This quote by haunts me. From Wilcox's "Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing" #stats
To begin, distributions are never normal. For some this seems obvious, hardly worth mentioning, but an aphorism given by Cram´er (1946) and attributed to the mathematician Poincar´e remains relevant: “Everyone believes in the [normal] law of errors, the experimenters because they think it is a mathematical theorem, the mathematicians because they think it is an experimental fact.”
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Tania Babina @taniababina.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Might be of interest: @imarinescu.bsky.social @alminas.bsky.social @avigoldfarb.bsky.social @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social @jmorenocruz.bsky.social @julianreif.bsky.social @paulgp.com @johnlist.bsky.social @johnvanreenen.bsky.social
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'm reminded of one of my favorite passages in Banerjee and Duflo's "Good Economics for Hard Times". "The goal of social policy, in these times of change and anxiety, is to help people absorb the shocks that affect them without allowing those shocks to affect their sense of themselves.."
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Alexander Tsai, MD @drdrtsai.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
👀 www.forbes.com/sites/michae...
forbes.com
Phil And Penny Knight Donate $1 Billion To The University Of Oregon
Nike co-founder Phil Knight and his wife Penny have donated $1 billion to the University of Oregon — its largest gift ever — to establish an engineering school in Eugene.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 22/09/2026
my two brains
static.klipy.com
Naruto and Sasuke Confrontation
ALT: Naruto and Sasuke Confrontation
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
we are such fucking morons it is so unbelievable sometimes
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 20/09/2026
Embracing my 40s (This porch was so loud, my watch gave me 5 100db warnings and I couldn't hear myself at all)
youtu.be
Assistant to the Professors - Porchfest Sept 19, 2026
YouTube video by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19/09/2026
New color palettes if folks are interested: github.com/paulgp/japan...
github.com
GitHub - paulgp/japanesecolors
Contribute to paulgp/japanesecolors development by creating an account on GitHub.
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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
With apologies if someone has beaten me to the punch... I've cloned and updated the economics job market tracker from @paulgp.com to get a sense for how the market is going so far this year. Good news: better than 2025 Bad news: not by much
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Peter Nencka 📊 @peternka.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
🚨 Announcing OpenCensus, a new project with @ezrakarger.bsky.social : We are transcribing the historical US censuses and releasing them as open data 2.6 million people so far in 1940, browse here: opencensus.us
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SE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm back, I missed you all. Since this is an important subject I know too much about, here's a 🧵 explaining that AI Safety Is Mostly A Sex Cult. I don't think these people should make policy. (1/?) (alternative title: Time For Some Cult Theory)
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Melissa Gentry @melissadgentry.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Are you a disability researcher working in the FSRDC wondering where the 1980s disability variable in the CPS went? I've written a CES Technical Note describing my process of bringing in those missing data! ideas.repec.org/p/cen/tnotes...
ideas.repec.org
Recovering Work-Limiting Disability Variables in the 1980s C
Disability status has been elicited systematically in United States surveys as far back as the 1970s and was included in the March Supplement of the Current Population Survey starting in 1981. Unfortu
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 16/09/2026
The bitterest lesson: "Rich Sutton’s incompleteideas.net/Inc… states that compute beats algorithms. My experience is that Sutton’s bitter lesson is the tip of an iceberg of bitterer lessons: beyond compute and algorithms, there’s data and even picking the right task to do ML on."
typesafe.ai
The Bitterest Lesson - TypeSafe AI Blog
TypeSafe AI is an AI lab building machine-native intelligence infrastructure for automation, designed to make decisions within software. Try our first System One Model, Jev, in early access.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 16/09/2026
This is an extremely cool teachign example
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
There’s a lot of doom & gloom around how AI is affecting higher education. To a certain extent, I get it. AI is making some things harder. But I’ve found that AI has in some ways greatly enhanced my teaching. For one, it’s opened up applied activities that weren’t possible before. One example: 🧵
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/09/2026
New post reviewing Zidar and Zwick's new book, which I loved. paulgp.substack.com/p/who-is-ric...
paulgp.substack.com
Who is rich in America, and why?
A review of “The Everywhere Millionaire” by Zidar and Zwick
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/09/2026
Come see our band this weekend at East Rock's Porch Fest at 4pm
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
Made a little VS Code package in the spirit of only using LLMs for editorial comments: github.com/paulgp/margin
github.com
GitHub - paulgp/margin: Source-first, comment-only writing review for Markdown, Typst, and LaTeX
Source-first, comment-only writing review for Markdown, Typst, and LaTeX - paulgp/margin
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
Interesting split by number of authors
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/09/2026
Nothing quite like the joy of dropping $$ on new band gear (in ear monitors for the vocalists so we're no longer hostage to the lead guitarist)
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Max Nathan @maxnathan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Really good - and helpful - stuff from @paulgp.com #EconSky 📉📈 paulgp.substack.com/p/how-do-we-...
paulgp.substack.com
How do we know if writing is AI?
Some initial analyses of AI’s impact on economics writing
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Yale Department of Economics @yaleeconomics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Xiaohong Chen, a renowned scholar who has made fundamental contributions to econometric methods, has been named the Tjalling C. Koopmans Professor of Economics. Read the full announcement here: news.yale.edu/2026/09/08/x...
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/09/2026
New post on AI in (economics) writing paulgp.substack.com/p/how-do-we-...
paulgp.substack.com
How do we know if writing is AI?
Some initial analyses of AI’s impact on economics writing
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Tania Babina @taniababina.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I am new to this platform! Friends and colleagues, please support by re-tweeting and following! @arpitrage.bsky.social @paulgp.com @avigoldfarb.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social @akorinek.bsky.social @antonio-coppola.bsky.social
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Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
*When unions increase wages, who pays?* It's normally hard to answer this Q: unions don't behave randomly, they respond to firm conditions, & firm data is hard to get. Our setting in Norway tackles both... 🧵on our paper (@microsamonomics.bsky.social Alex Willen) academic.oup.com/qje/advance-...
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Jamin Speer @jaminspeer.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
***NEWLY ACCEPTED PAPER*** I have a new short paper with Margaret Leighton We use decades of data (HERI) on incoming college freshmen to show that students' life goals have changed dramatically over time. Students really are very different than they were in the past! Here are the key findings:
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Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 31/08/2026
August 31st or, as it is conventionally known amongst academics, À la recherche du temps perdu
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Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 31/08/2026
🚨New working paper alert!🚨 Private tutoring chains like Kumon and Sylvan have grown rapidly. Who uses them? Do they improve kids' skills? BU econ PhD student Samuel Nitkin and I provide answers in: "Kumon Up: Private Tutoring Centers and Student Achievement" www.nber.org/papers/w35671 1/?
Private tutoring chains like Kumon and Sylvan have expanded rapidly in recent decades.
Combining data on business locations, household spending, and district test scores, we study who
uses these centers and how they affect academic skills. Nearly half of tutoring users are from the top
income decile, with Asian and White households five and two times as likely to purchase tutoring as
Black and Hispanic households. A staggered differences-in-differences design shows the opening
of a district's first chain center raises district-wide math and reading scores by 0.02-0.03 standard
deviations, at a much lower cost than public spending typically producing similar gains. Math
effects are largest for White and Asian students, so that center entry widens racial achievement
gaps, though less so in more racially integrated districts. These private investments help their
users, deepen educational inequality, and shape outcomes by which state accountability systems
and families judge schools.
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Shelly Lundberg @shellyjlundberg.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
www.socialsciences.ucsb.edu/news/ucsb-ec...
socialsciences.ucsb.edu
UCSB Economist Shelly Lundberg Honored with Mincer Award, Releases Book on Gender Economics | Division of Social Sciences
Renowned economist and demographer Shelly Lundberg, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Leonard Broom Professor of Demography at UC Santa Barbara, has been named a recipient of the prestigious 20...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
There is now StanCon 2026 Uppsala playlist www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... At the moment talks by @mjskay.com, @aseyboldt.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @charlesm993.bsky.social are up, and we'll keep uploading more during the week
youtube.com
StanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
🚨🚨🚨 We're hiring a junior professor in Policy Analysis/Public Administration/Public Management here at the UC Berkeley Goldman School of Public Policy 🚨🚨🚨 aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF05497
aprecruit.berkeley.edu
Assistant Professor - General Public Policy and Administration: Policy Analysis, Public Administration and Management - Goldman School of Public Policy
University of California, Berkeley is hiring. Apply now!
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Mickaël CANOUIL, Ph.D. @mickael.canouil.fr · 14/08/2026
Work in progress ... (Gribouille integration) #Typst
Table titled 'Portfolio: Twelve-month trends' with four columns — Asset, Trend, Volume, and Weight. Three rows: Equities shows a rising sparkline, increasing bar volumes, and 62.0% weight; Bonds shows a declining sparkline, decreasing bar volumes, and 31.0% weight; Cash shows a flat, slightly wavy sparkline, steady bar volumes, and 7.0% weight. Footer reads 'Source: portfolio ledger.'
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Erzo F.P. Luttmer @erzoluttmer.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
1/5 AEA journals have run a pilot using Refine, and author reactions were overwhelmingly positive: >90% favored incorporating Refine into the editorial process. Think of Refine not as a referee, but as a detailed technical proofreader. @aeajournals.bsky.social #EconSky
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 07/08/2026
Profound insights and practical ideas to manage the new world of coding, from Geoffrey Litt. HT @paulgp.com
geoffreylitt.com
Understanding is the new bottleneck
Agents can write code faster than we can absorb it. Here's why it still matters for humans to understand what they build — and some techniques for doing that efficiently: explainer docs, quizzes, micr...
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Andrew Avitabile @andrewavit.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
That’s easy to do in Stata, you just need to access an invisible, cryptically-named matrix that requires learning a different programming language to view
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Dirk Eddelbuettel @eddelbuettel.com · 01/08/2026
Second attempt at bread from 'Four Water Salt Yeast' by Ken Forkish, but now with reduced hydration and again a pure sourdough / levain variant. Getting there. #breadsky
Photo of two fresh loaves of sourdough bread following a recipe from 'Flour Water Salt Yeast'.
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ArXiv Paperboy (Econ.GN + Econ.TH) @arxivecongnbot.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
arXiv📈🤖 Consuming Values By Conway, Boxell
We study the extent to which individuals' consumption decisions are influenced by firms' stances on controversial social issues and the implied incentives for firms to take such stances. We use transactions from a major payment card company to predict cardholders' likely social alignment with firm stances and to quantify effects on consumption. The social stances taken by firms increase revenue on average, with significant heterogeneity across consumers and firm stances. Consumers most aligned with a firm's social stance increase their consumption at the firm by 19 percent in the month following widely known social stance events, and consumers most opposed to the firm's stance decrease their consumption by 12 percent. These diverging consumption responses attenuate over time but persist even a year later. Firms tend to take stances that align with their consumers' and employees' social preferences and that correlate with the firm's ownership structure. Together, our results show that consumers meaningfully respond to their social alignment with firms, and that this consumer response can incentivize profit-maximizing firms to engage with social issues.
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Andrea Lathrop @cabernet.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 30/07/2026
New post! open.substack.com/pub/paulgp/p...
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 30/07/2026
substack.com/@paulgp/note...
substack.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham (@paulgp)
Interesting to compare this to the stock age of homeowners:
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 29/07/2026
The unsung hero of public EV-charger buildout is [checks notes] Wal-Mart?
bloomberg.com
Walmart Leapfrogs EV Charging Competitors With Rapid Buildout
In a matter of months, the retailer has become a major player in the business of fueling electric cars.
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