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Erika McEntarfer

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
17K followers 488 following 396 posts

Former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ex-Council of Economic Advisers, Census, and Treasury. Bay Area/DC dual citizen. Personal account, all opinions my own

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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In streamed an army of cops...and, trotting after them, Nate Cavanaugh, along with more DOGE people. “They are ordering the D.C. cops around like their own private army,” said Colin. “I didn’t see that coming. I didn’t see the police taking sides.” www.wsj.com/politics/mic...
wsj.com
Essay | Exclusive | Michael Lewis on the Lone Security Guard Who Resisted DOGE
In an exclusive excerpt from “Blockers,” the inside story of the high-stakes D.C. standoff where security chief Colin O’Brien fought off DOGE operatives.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Good 🧵 worth your time. It's so unusual to have a frozen job ladder outside of a recession. A labor market with low unemployment but almost no opportunity to move to a better job isn't healthy for workers, economic growth, or productivity.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“AI is identifying more billable conditions, not sicker patients“ interesting article on AI cost pressure in health care
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
(WSJ) - For decades, the Federal Reserve's playbook for oil shocks has been to wait them out. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that approach has reached its limit. @wsj.com www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Justice, at long last, for Andreas Georgiou. A brave and honorable man
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-so... The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social
aleximas.substack.com
Will AI soon lead to double-digit growth?
Probably not. Here is why.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
BREAKING: Trump admin proposes major #2030Census changes that would reshape voting maps, including no race & ethnicity questions and excluding non-U.S. citizens without a green card from a count that 14th Amendment says must include “whole number of persons in each state” www.npr.org/2026/09/09/n...
npr.org
Trump officials propose sweeping changes to the census that would reshape voting maps
A Trump census proposal would stop asking about race and exclude millions of U.S. residents from a count that the 14th Amendment says must include the "whole number of persons in each state."
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Vittoria Elliott @telliotter.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
SCOOP: An anonymous census report claimed thousands of noncitizens voted. But @davidgilbert.bsky.social and I found that not only was the report based on bad data, its authors include members of a Trump-aligned think tank and a former member of DOGE. @wired.com www.wired.com/story/a-us-c...
wired.com
A US Census Report on Noncitizen Voting Used Bad Data to Reach Faulty Conclusions
Trump has touted a recent Census report. WIRED found grave flaws in its analysis and the process behind it, and confirmed the identity of several of its authors—among them a one-time DOGE affiliate.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
What's happening here has little to do with AI and more to do with structural change in the information sector, which is shedding jobs in legacy industries like telecom, media, and - more recently - motion pictures (covid, strikes, not recovering). The sector is not a good proxy for 'tech' jobs.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Jed Kolko, former Commerce official overseeing Census and BEA, on the worrying signs of political interference at Census www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Political meddling at the Census Bureau damages the entire US statistical system
This summer marks the worst period for US statistical integrity since President Donald Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics last August. Two different and seemingly uncoordinated eve...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
This change grants Commerce political appointees veto power over data and research releases by scientists and statisticians at NOAA, NIST, Census, and BEA.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
A very small preliminary benchmark revision meaning the payroll survey did a pretty amazing job estimating job growth last year. Since the pattern for QCEW revisions is that they are revised up this may convert to a small positive revision in Feb.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Michael Lewis’ new book ‘Blockers’, coming out 10/6, is about the early days of DOGE and the civil servants who stood in their way. This should be a fascinating read: www.rizzolibookstore.com/product/bloc...
rizzolibookstore.com
Blockers: Rebels in the Deep State by MICHAEL LEWIS - Book: 9781324131656 | Rizzoli Bookstore
Buy now Blockers: Rebels in the Deep State by MICHAEL LEWIS available for just $29.99. Published by W. W. Norton & Company, this Non-Fiction book is a must-read. Order today and enjoy fast shipping.
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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Treasuries in trouble? Greg Ip @wsj.com looks at signs that U.S. debt is losing its status as the world's "safe" asset. Article cites evidence in a new study from SIEPR Senior Fellow @hannolustig.bsky.social showing that investor doubts started in 2020. Gift link + study ⤵️
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"Work on the analysis was not conducted by career civil servants at the Census Bureau, and the team behind it included individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute, a think tank started by officials from Trump's first administration.." www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...
npr.org
Experts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen voting
A Trump-aligned think tank has ties to a highly unusual Census Bureau report that the president is using to renew false claims of widespread voting by non-U.S. citizens in 2020, NPR has learned.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
A journalist asked me recently what bit of labor market data about AI’s impact I found the most surprising and it’s this: the recent surge in growth of software developers, despite high rates of AI adoption and layoffs in tech
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Lack of US labor supply from aging + ever more restrictive immigration policy (Haitians will be leaving LF next) means job gains posted this spring were simply implausibe and indeed we got a big dose of mean reversion in July... 1/5
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
This is the way. You can see here why the seasonally adjusted series has started to fall off - employment this year peaked in the fall instead of the spring, the trough is lower. It does look like the sector may have peaked but you can‘t rule out a change in the seasonal pattern either
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Josh was the education economist at CEA while I was there and has been doing great work on the fall in public school enrollments (why I haven’t been quick to dismiss this as a seasonal quirk, although I can’t rule it out)
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Governor Cook thinks the vibecession comes down to: 1) growing job insecurity from potential AI disruption 2) lack of affordability in big ticket items: housing, health care, childcare 3) persistently elevated inflation broadly for 5yrs + www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
federalreserve.gov
Speech by Governor Cook on the outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan economies
Thank you, Jon, for that kind introduction. It is an honor to be here in Alaska. I appreciate the invitation from the Anchorage Economic Development Corporatio
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Ed Z @edzarenski.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
For 2026 nonresidential bldgs construction spending, Data Centers +40%, +$20bil Manufacturing -20%, -$43bil Nothing else even comes close to the impact these two have on overall spending, but also notice, a 40% gain in DC is not enough to offset a 20% decline in Mnfg.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
No pick-up in hiring yet, but we may have already hit bottom on job openings.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
7 out of 10 cities with the largest home price declines from their peak are in FL and TX (Freddie repeat sales index)
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NBER @nber.org · 29/07/2026
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management, presented "Using AI in Household Finance Research: A Practical Guide" at the Household Finance Conference during the 2026 Summer Institute. www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5g6...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Tornado watch in effect, thanks MD for setting me straight forever on this
Crab cake watch (old bay, breadcrumbs, crabs) vs warning (crab cake)
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explore.org @explore.org · 23/07/2026
Yearly bear cam maintenance staff reporting for duty.
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Chart o the day via @financialtimes.com
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 23/07/2026
This is a promising signal future hiring likely
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Really nice Substack post from Ernie Tedeschi at Stripe on AI and productivity: substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
AI and productivity
The story in the data so far (briefly)
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Great story from 'The Daily' today on the evolution of the US construction industry from a highly unionized, well-paid workforce in the 1970s to one that largely relies on non-union immigrant labor. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/p...
nytimes.com
Trump’s Clashing Goals: More Housing, Fewer Immigrants
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
When I ran BLS, I was asked constantly about the impact of AI on jobs. It's still one of the most common questions I get. So we put together a policy brief - for policymakers, journalists, and anyone trying to sort through what is happening with AI and jobs: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu
What is really happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality
Other
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
The FT on whether AI is showing up in productivity www.ft.com/content/3fcd...

	Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/.
	https://www.ft.com/content/3fcda833-80d2-4e13-86f4-29b479b79adf

	t’s around now in the story that we could lapse into woofy sci-fi. Maybe hyperscalers become quasi-states from inside their competitive moats made of money. Maybe open models shift the balance of power to where power’s most plentiful. Maybe societies reorganise for post-scarcity, post-knowledge, post-trust, or whatever. It’s much more fun to spitball this stuff than to look at Bureau of Labor Statistics data, on which there’s still no evidence strong enough to hang any sort of theory.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Goldman Sachs on the Fed data task force:
Warsh has argued that the Fed and the statistical agencies should use more private-sector data to improve the quality and timeliness of economic statistics. The data task force will be led by former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon and economists Kevin Murphy and Raj Chetty. Chetty was a pioneer in using alternative data to track the economy during the pandemic. While such efforts enjoy broad support and are already underway at the Fed and the statistical agencies, alternative data sources often fail to meet three requirements for high-quality economic statistics: representativeness, accurate seasonal adjustment, and continuous availability. As a result, alternative data are more likely to be used as complements to the official data rather than as replacements and will require fine-tuning by the Fed staff or the statistical agencies.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
As the US industrialized, workers and businesses entered protracted labor disputes over what a fair pay increase would be to keep up with the cost of living. Workers thought businesses were gaslighting them about how much prices were going up...🧵
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FedResearch @fedresearch.federalreserve.gov · 17/07/2026
New #FEDSNote: The AI Buildout and the Economy: Publicly Available Data to Assess AI's Impact : www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky
federalreserve.gov
The AI Buildout and the Economy: Publicly Available Data to Assess AI's Impact
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I cannot tell you how many people have complained to me that we don't have a national survey asking how people use AI. If that includes you, here's your chance to comment on BLS's plans to ask about AI use in the American Time Use Survey starting in Jan. '27 fedscoop.com/bureau-of-la...
fedscoop.com
Labor seeks public feedback ahead of nationwide AI survey launch
The agency’s Bureau of Labor Statistics opened a two-month comment period ahead of its January 2027 launch of a survey on public adoption of and time spent on AI.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
The Chief Economist at Indeed just posted that software development job posting growth is outpacing overall job posting growth:
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
NY FED: “.. nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.” @scottlincicome.bsky.social libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more...
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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
New SF Fed index "improves inflation forecasts at one-year to three-year horizons....Recent index readings have fluctuated above and below zero, indicating that inflation may remain near current levels in the near to medium term."
frbsf.org
Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation - San Francisco Fed
A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that a...
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Capital Weather @capitalweather.com · 05/07/2026
Lightning photobombs DC's fireworks show. Remarkable images shared with us by Russell Moy.
Fireworks burst in red and yellow palm-like patterns across the horizon while a jagged lightning bolt strikes through dark storm clouds at right, silhouetting a low city skyline beneath in DC on July 5.Fireworks burst in red and yellow palm-like patterns across the horizon while a jagged lightning bolt strikes through dark storm clouds at right, silhouetting a low city skyline beneath in DC on July 5.Fireworks burst in red and yellow palm-like patterns across the horizon while a jagged lightning bolt strikes through dark storm clouds at right, silhouetting a low city skyline beneath in DC on July 5.
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Jason Rabinowitz @airlineflyer.net · 05/07/2026
A $3 @mta.info subway fare and some good Q train timing can buy you one hell of a view of the July 4th fireworks and the Brooklyn Bridge light show! Huge shoutout to the train operator for slow rolling over the Manhattan Bridge and the conductor for announcing it.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 03/07/2026
What is the effect of immigrant manual labor on US firms and workers? @ethan-lewis.bsky.social and I study this with a nationwide randomized visa lottery in our new @aeajournals.bsky.social paper. We decompose the substitution & scale effects, which I'll explain, in a new @piie.com post. Thread—>
Graph: Effect of a 10% increase in foreign (H-2B) hires on US hires
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 03/07/2026
this stuff is absolutely wild all that hand-wringing about egg prices!
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
The data paints a mixed picture because it’s still early days for the technology. There’s actually a fair bit of public data and researcher surveys but there could be more. Well worth a read -
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
As a new Fed Chair casts doubt on offical statistics after the Aministration drastically cut their funding, it is worth remembering how and why we created federal statistics agencies in the first place...they reduce scope for gaslighting the public www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf...
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
It’s so hot here in DC that when I opened the door to let the bulldog outside, she took one step out of the air conditioning and turned around and came back inside
Sleeping bulldog
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Important nuance in today’s report, the drop in unemployment reflects weakness, not strength, in the household data that looks like statistical noise. Big picture is unemployment rate that has been unusually steady for a while now
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
With a longer view, the 1st half of 2026 is still looking better than H2 2025 w/ improvement in a variety of industries: prof & biz services, edu, construction, mfctg, retail, transportation, govt. Information (includes tech + media), finance, leisure & hospitality are softer 5/
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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Bottom line: Compared to what we thought yesterday the outlook is a tiny bit weaker (which is what the markets are reacting to). But compared to what we thought a month or two or three ago this is a remarkably resilient and stable labor market even in the face of big shocks.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
It's an oddball question, and one I think I'd try to avoid answering on the fly, too, but he does seem to focus a lot on the fact that economic data isn't perfectly timely.
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