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Yuriy Gorodnichenko

@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
5.6K followers 523 following 510 posts

Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine Author of "Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments".

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Today Russia hit the National Academy of Sciences and a Dobrobut hospital in #Kyiv... Barbaric, evil attacks
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
School Math Olympiad in #Kyiv these days, held in a bomb shelter. Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, so these kids solve geometry problems between pipes and ventilation ducts. Every solved problem is a small act of defiance. 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine
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Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 24/09/2026
Watch the previous session that featured @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social. cepr.org/events/event...
cepr.org
Yuriy Gorodnichenko - Seminar 12 - Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics (VSME)
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 21/09/2026
The winter conference in December 2025 of the EP:PEGI brought together economists to discuss Ukraine's wartime economy and reconstruction. That work is now out on Oxford University Press (Vol. 41, Issue 125): ow.ly/ihla50ZKl9f
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Putin signed a decree on the nationalization of the Russian assets of Auchan, Nestlé, and the former Leroy Merlin chain. Churchill: "[They] had to choose between war and shame. They chose shame. They will get war too."
pravda.com.ua
Путін конфіскував російські активи Auchan, Nestle та Leroy Merlin
Російський правитель Володимир Путін підписав указ про націоналізацію російських активів компаній Auchan, Nestle та колишньої мережі Leroy Merlin.
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Maksym Polyakov 🇺🇦🌻 @maksympolyakov.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Facts do not matter anymore
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 14/09/2026
Marvin Amann, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, & Oleksandr Talavera show that Ukrainian allocative productivity is down approx. 20% from its 2021 level by 2024, with roughly half of the wartime output loss attributable to misallocation rather than destruction. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
The figure shows that allocative productivity in Ukraine was roughly flat through 2021, then fell sharply after February 2022. By 2024 it stood ~20% below its 2021 level, while none of the peer economies deteriorated comparably.

Estimates of the cost of Russia’s war on Ukraine are dominated by what the war destroys. This column measures a second cost: the labour and capital that survive but end up stuck in low-value uses. Firm-level financial statements filed throughout the full-scale invasion show allocative productivity approximately 20% below its 2021 level by 2024, with roughly half of the wartime output loss attributable to misallocation rather than destruction. Attack intensity, not distance from the front, determines where the damage falls. Unlike destroyed capital, this loss can in principle be recovered without new investment.
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
September (prelim) sentiment continues downward trend, as inflation expectations rise #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
New piece with @tderyugina.bsky.social and @ilonasolohub.bsky.social The main message is: Europe in 2025 is #Ukraine in 2014. Not investing in defense, thinking the war is local, letting RUS information space, believing that someone else will protect, trying to make a deal with Putin Big mistakes
project-syndicate.org
Will Europe Be as Unprepared as Ukraine Was?
Tatyana Deryugina, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Ilona Sologoub say that the main challenge is not merely to spend more, but to change entrenched habits of mind.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
War doesn't just destroy factories and kill people — it makes everything left standing less productive. New paper shows half of #Ukraine wartime output collapse comes from allocative TFP loss: resources are trapped in the wrong places. The hidden cost of war is misallocation. tinyurl.com/54w5chce
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
August 24, 2026 #Ukraine's Independence Day 35 years of freedom
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 05/08/2026
The experience of being chased by a murderous kamikaze drone, a flying machine that behaves as if it were alive, is not one that humans are equipped to understand: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
The Dystopian Future Dawns in Kherson
Putin’s human safari in Ukraine is the beginning of a grim new normal.
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Maksym Polyakov 🇺🇦🌻 @maksympolyakov.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
🔥🔥🔥 John Mearsheimer gets it wrong every time he opens his mouth! from www.facebook.com/bpitts.usa
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Got my copy of a new book by @gerardrolink.bsky.social A must read!
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
A new piece with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social The USSR perfected deploying "independent" voices to deliver Kremlin messages while appearing to challenge them. Melnichenko's Economist piece is the same playbook. The correct response to such "visions" is one word: nyet. #Ukraine
kyivpost.com
Why The Economist Scoop Was a Polite Version of the Same Moscow Threat
The storied British news journal merely flogged a standard Russian threat couched as a “wind of change.”
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
FT editorial on EU sanctions on RUS "the price of short-term efforts to protect national interests could be to embolden RUS to fight on in pursuit of a victory that would have huge costs for Europe’s long-term security and prosperity." The lack of strategic thinking in some EU gov'ts is shocking
ft.com
The EU needs to hold together on Russia sanctions
Cost of trying to protect domestic interests may be to embolden Moscow
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
I have a new policy brief on Russia's wartime economy (with Mariia Dzholos and Oleksii Shpanel-Yukhta. TL;DR: Russia can't sustain this war much longer without imposing substantial hardship on its population. Accompanying op-ed here: voxukraine.org/en/russia-s-...
voxukraine.org
Russia’s War Economy Is Running Down. Europe Should Press Harder
In mid-July, European leaders will gather for another review of the Union's sanctions against Russia. It is therefore a fitting...
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Alina Poliakova 🇺🇦 @poliakova.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
This is one of the two closest metro stations to my house, which is used like a shelter. Coincidence of yet another Russian attack. #UkrainianView
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
A strong worded editorial from Financial Times Main message: the best people should be in the government This is always a good idea and especially so during an existential war #Ukraine www.ft.com/content/fd75...
ft.com
Ukraine’s self-defeating reshuffle
Wartime leadership is not a popularity contest
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jeeanews.bsky.social @jeeanews.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
How do firms form inflation expectations in a heterogeneous monetary union? Using novel euro area survey data, including an RCT, the paper shows that firms' beliefs are consistent with Bayesian updating, extrapolating from regional and national inflation to euro area expectations
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jeeanews.bsky.social @jeeanews.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Forthcoming article "Firms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union" by Ursel Baumann, Annalisa Ferrando, Dimitris Georgarakos, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and @treinelt.bsky.social @eeanews.bsky.social doi.org/10.1093/jeea...
doi.org
Firms’ Inflation Expectations in a Monetary Union
Abstract. Using data from the euro area SAFE, a novel survey of firms’ inflation expectations including a randomized controlled trial, we show that firms’
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Ilona Solohub @ilonasolohub.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Everyone is amazed at the development of drone industry in Ukraine. Ukrainian firms are ready to share the experience and technologies, but Ukraine needs more "conventional" weapons such as missiles. Our op-ed with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www1.project-syndicate.org/commentary/h...
www1.project-syndicate.org
Inside Ukraine’s Game-Changing Drone Industry
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Viktor Koziuk and Ilona Sologoub examine the nuts and bolts of how the country has turned military necessity into world-leading technology.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Trump promised to finish the war in one day It has been 531 days since his inauguration and RU continues to destroy Kyiv and other cities in #Ukraine kyivindependent.com/russian-atta...
kyivindependent.com
Massive Russia attack hits apartment buildings in Kyiv, killing 8, injuring 34
Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones toward Kyiv overnight on July 6, hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of yet another large-scale attack targeting the capital.
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OlhaZadorozhna @olhazadorozhna.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
1/3 New episode of #PolicyImplications with Jacob Kirkegaard. We discuss what Europe has actually built since 2022: the EU has become essential on money, sanctions, coordination, and long-term support for UA. But EU defence future increasingly runs through UA. Link: tinyurl.com/5hfs7u9p
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Kyiv July 4
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Ilona Solohub @ilonasolohub.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Ukraine is essential for Europe's security and development. @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social discusses this from economic and technological points of view. Please share: voxukraine.org/en/europe-20...
voxukraine.org
Europe 2050: Geometries of Peace, Power, and Prosperity
Years ago, California was the frontier of the “Wild West.” Today, it is the beating heart of innovation and the...
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Op-ed with @ilonasolohub.bsky.social Every concession framed as “diplomacy” is a village burned. When Western leaders repeat RUS “newspeak,” they become its amplifiers. After 12 years of RUS aggression, #Ukraine doesn't need borrowed euphemisms from its partners. UKR needs more effective weapons.
kyivpost.com
Negotiations’ Are Traps – How Russia Tweaks Language to Deceive the West
Every concession framed as “diplomacy” is a village burned. Every time Western leaders repeat Russian “newspeak,” they become its amplifiers.
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OlhaZadorozhna @olhazadorozhna.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
🎧 Today, as RU launched another massive attack on Kyiv, I’m sharing an episode that feels especially timely. Link: tinyurl.com/4fbjbrvs 🎧 Listen as a podcast: 🟢 Spotify: shorturl.at/Ho3jh 🍎 Apple Podcasts: shorturl.at/gOlvb ▶️ YouTube Podcasts: shorturl.at/otJaq #EconSky #PoliSky #EconTwitter
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Momentous
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Sec. Rubio congratulated the Russian people on Russia Day. US Gov. joined Iran, Belarus, N. Korea, etc. No European government or EU institution congratulated Sec. Blinken in 2022 on RUS day: "...the Kremlin is waging an unprovoked and unjustified war against a sovereign, neighboring state."
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Grand Continent @grandcontinent.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Le pays qui peut sauver l'Europe se trouve à l'Est. L'Ukraine pourrait devenir l'investissement le plus important que l’Union pourrait réaliser. La perspective de l'économiste @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social.
legrandcontinent.eu
Le pays qui peut sauver l’Europe n’est pas celui auquel vous pensez | Le Grand Continent
L'Ukraine est en train de devenir notre Californie, l'investissement le plus important que l’Union pourrait réaliser est son élargissement.
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Euan MacDonald @euanmacdonald.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
SPIEF2026: Under a cloud.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Monthly losses of Russian vehicles and fuel tankers (Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) A dramatic increase in recent months. Recent days were ~500/day Daily number for June 1, 2026: 517 At this rate, June will be well above 10,000
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Kyiv this morning After a massive Russian attack
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NBER @nber.org · 31/05/2026
Studying how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior in Ukraine, from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Ilona Sologoub, and Yuriy Fedyk www.nber.org/papers/w35251
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Olivier Blanchard on my #Ukriane chapter for #CEPR Europe 2050 project: "You may well start skeptical: Yes, first we need peace or something close. And UKR is not perfect. But read it with an open mind and change your mind, or at least move your prior. The opportunity is there." #UkrainianView
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Great pleasure to contribute my chapter on #Ukraine to CEPR's Europe 2050 Years ago, #California was the frontier of the “Wild West.” Today, it is the beating heart of innovation and the new economy. In much the same way, Ukraine is poised to become the “Wild East” of the European Union (EU).
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Heartbreaking
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The National Bank of Ukraine and Narodowy Bank Polski invite submissions for their 10th joint Annual Research Conference titled “Central Banks Response to Future Challenges: Resilience, Credibility, and Innovation”. See the call for papers #EconSky
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
A Glovo delivery in Kyiv after a massive Russian attack on our city. That's Ukraine.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
A proposal to manage blackouts in #Ukraine and other countries
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Impled expected inflation, real rates both up #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Unless NY Times misquoted Pierre Yared, he predicts deflation: Pierre Yared, the acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, predicted last week that consumer prices would “go back down” once the war ended. Prof. forecasters predict 3.6% CPI #inflation tinyurl.com/56twry6s
nytimes.com
For Trump, Soaring Prices Test Voters’ Finances and Patience
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Olena Halushka @halushka.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
It was a heavy attack. I'm still shaking, even though we spent the entire time in the shelter. russians erased a block of a residential building in Kyiv, w people still trapped under the rubble. I can't comprehend how anyone living safely in the free world could support this.
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
PPI inflation: 6%in April 2026 The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally considered a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) This means we are likely to see further acceleration in CPI inflation. 3.8% CPI inflation in April 2026 is not the end of it
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Gas prices are up! Research (tinyurl.com/34bbeums) shows that when gas prices fall and American households save $1, that dollar is spent elsewhere—reflecting MPC=1 from gas savings. I think the reverse likely holds too: an extra $1 spent on gas reduces spending on other things by ≈$1. #EconSky
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Guntram Wolff @guntramwolff.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Big spending, little future: Germany is rearming differently from Poland and the UK - our new report is out: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
kielinstitut.de
Leading in spending, lagging in innovation: German defence procurement compared to the UK and Poland - Kiel Institute
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 10/05/2026
“Ukraine is no longer just an aid recipient; it is emerging as a security provider for Europe,” writes Andrew Chakhoyan, an academic director at the University of Amsterdam, in this op-ed.
kyivindependent.com
Russia's war comes home
Toxic rain is falling on Tuapse — just 75 miles from Vladimir Putin's summer residence in Sochi — coating cars and streets in oily grime. A once-picturesque Black Sea resort town is now choking on the...
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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
In 1947, George Kennan quoted a dispatch to US State Dept in 1850s: "A strange superstition prevails among the Russians, that they are destined to conquer the world... they believe that the time is not far distant when the world will be one great Russian Empire." Little has changed #UkrainianView
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NBER @nber.org · 04/05/2026
How households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions, from Francesco Grigoli, Damiano Sandri, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and Olivier Coibion www.nber.org/papers/w35127
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