Sign in

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com
19K followers 2K following 4.3K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

PostsRepliesMedia
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
And a muted response at conferences:
020
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
Take-off in journal submission is mixed so far:
120
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19/09/2026
Examples here: paulgp.com/japanesecolo...
020
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/09/2026
Come see our band this weekend at East Rock's Porch Fest at 4pm
080
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
010
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
Interesting split by number of authors
194
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/09/2026
Well, from Organization Science I thought this was pretty remarkable: pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/...
2234
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 31/08/2026
Ok i know you're joking but I had this in my closet:
4231
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 30/07/2026
New post! open.substack.com/pub/paulgp/p...
0289
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 27/07/2026
New amp day
2201
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 24/07/2026
030
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 21/07/2026
Rio
120
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 09/07/2026
Allez les bleus!!
20591
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 09/07/2026
New pokemon evolution tree
9670
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/06/2026
This whole article is a banger:
1255
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/06/2026
jamesbrandecon.github.io/blog/posts_h... So after having GPT-5.4 agents review 4,800 proofs and GPT-5.5 give a second review to a random subset of them, what did we find? To my absolute surprise, if anything the rate of errors in proofs has increased(!) in 2025 relative to previous years.
2275
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 05/06/2026
Still riding the high from this
2390
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 03/06/2026
Poaster's credentials REVOKED
250
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/06/2026
If you look hard, you can see exactly when my children are born in my MBA evaluations...
1430
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/06/2026
In a new post, I pull data from four different sources --- arXiv, NBER working papers, SSRN, and the AEA --- to look at how much working paper growth and submissions have changed with the growth of AI. paulgp.substack.com/p/the-number...
14815
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/05/2026
0163
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/05/2026
130
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/05/2026
If you want to incorporate full costs, including board, we can subset to those schools that report the overall COA
390
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/05/2026
280
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/05/2026
2023 data for annual STICKER price at U.S. Colleges. Upper-bound on cost paid by students (because it does not consider aid and grants)
77425
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/05/2026
Dear lord almighty, 20+% of finance papers are winsorizing?
4140
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 07/05/2026
Well this is a bit insane but in case anyone wants to see us live:
1120
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 01/05/2026
Also did this:
110
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 01/05/2026
Wall upgrade
2260
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 21/04/2026
Python implementation of `rdrobust` that is significantly faster! github.com/leostimpfle/... These runtimes are in logscale!!
3273
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 20/04/2026
0123
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 17/04/2026
Hi @ulrichatz.org , yeah the dashboard figures are different than some of the ones in the paper (that needs to be rectified). The little ? next to the word denotes how it's derived -- in this case it's a crazy long string:
010
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 17/04/2026
Papers now also indicate my analysis of the data accessibility in their data repos. Shows up on the paper listings, and on the exported paper CSV. So, easy exercise is to search for "regression discontinuity" and filter the CSV by "full data" to get a bunch of examples.
271
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 17/04/2026
Looks like macro lagging applied micro in causal inference
2100
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/04/2026
Redid my leniency design IV slides based on the paper for JEP that Peter Hull, Michal Kolesar and I wrote: github.com/paulgp/appli... arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572
0335
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/04/2026
Version 2, with more explanations and clean-up. paulgp.com/replication-...
0104
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 13/04/2026
3319
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 13/04/2026
First pass at a website that keeps track of the data availability status of various published papers: paulgp.com/replication-... Very much in Alpha mode, so data will be updated soon.
109023
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 12/04/2026
Come for my thoughts on AI writing, stay for Dostoevsky caricature as an econometrician:
181
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/04/2026
2321
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 09/04/2026
Anthropic finally blocked pi-mono 😩
060
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 08/04/2026
Amazing comic www.butajape.com/comic/what-i...
0362
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 07/04/2026
Outlook's horrible search functionality drove me to this:
3100
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 07/04/2026
3200
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 06/04/2026
3442
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/04/2026
Since when do we need publishers to remind us that, yes, we are in fact responsible for things we put our names on?
2131
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/04/2026
Yes, but not exclusively I think?
110
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/04/2026
lol, this is a paper for economists and "credibility revolution" is a term that has specifically been invoked by economists. I also like waffles dude
100
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/04/2026
Also, applied econ and methods folks might need to do some work finding each other:
3160
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/04/2026
RIP IV, Long live DiD
2295