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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com
19K followers 2K following 4.3K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
John Cawley @johncawley.bsky.social · 16h
From our AEA cttee on the job market, here's the first update on the status of the job mkt for PhD economists of the 2026-27 cycle. A thread with graphs follows... #EconJobMarket #EconSky @aeainformation.bsky.social @aeacswep.bsky.social @joelistings.bsky.social 1/9
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The bond yield story just keeps getting starker.
Line chart titled "10-Year Treasury Note" showing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note from late 2025 through September 2026. Treasury yields surged dramatically to 5.29 percent on September 29, 2026, the highest level in the period shown. This represents a sharp 130 basis point increase from the October 2025 low of 3.96 percent and a particularly rapid 45 basis point climb over just the final month. After trading mostly between 4.00 and 4.75 percent for nearly a year, yields broke decisively above 5.00 percent in September 2026, signaling a fundamental shift in borrowing costs and market conditions.
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Scott Imberman @imbernomics.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
New econometric toy alert.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
You're welcome! Thanks for reading.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
And a muted response at conferences:
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
Take-off in journal submission is mixed so far:
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 28/09/2026
New post: paulgp.substack.com/p/ai-in-jour...
paulgp.substack.com
AI in journals, conferences, and submissions
A variety of facts about AI’s effect on economics research
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Peter Nencka 📊 @peternka.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We're hiring two folks at Miami Econ this year! One health One "applied micro" Dynamic fun department in small town with big town (Cincinnati) nearby! Tell your friends and apply! www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....,
aeaweb.org
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2026 - January 31, 2027
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 25/09/2026
Thanks a lot for sharing David. Great presentation by Stijn
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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Eyebrow-raising presentation at @brookings.edu BPEA conference by Columbia's Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh on the enormous scale of the data center build-out and the opaque leverage that's financing it. VIDEO (15 minutes) www.youtube.com/live/UaQDp-G...
youtube.com
BPEA Fall 2026 Conference Day 2: Presented by The Brookings Institution
YouTube video by Brookings Institution
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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Shelly Lundberg @shellyjlundberg.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Shameless self-promotion and a request. My publisher is asking me to encourage Amazon reviews, so.... If you bought How Economics Discovered Women on Amazon and like it, it would help me out if you post a short review. news.ucsb.edu/2026/022818/...
news.ucsb.edu
Economist Shelly Lundberg wins prestigious Mincer Award, releases book on gender economics
Lundberg's Mincer Award for lifetime achievement in economics scholarship comes as her newest book, “How Economics Discovered Women” hits the shelves.
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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A pretty solid week as we head into the meat of the econ job market season #econsky
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Emily Moin @emilymoin.com · 25/09/2026
Gift link, and some reactions herein. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Being a Doctor Will Never Be the Same After A.I. (Gift Article)
I’m confident in my mastery over what doctors do — and less confident about my continued mastery of an ever-evolving universe of facts.
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Ben Collins @bencollins.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
It is so good to see @reportermatt.bsky.social, who was in like 80% of my classes in college, become the most influential reporter in Massachusetts. He just loves the place, and you can tell in everything he does. A truly wonderful man making the whole state better.
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 24/09/2026
This quote by haunts me. From Wilcox's "Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing" #stats
To begin, distributions are never normal. For some this seems obvious, hardly worth mentioning, but an aphorism given by Cram´er (1946) and attributed to the mathematician Poincar´e remains relevant: “Everyone believes in the [normal] law of errors, the experimenters because they think it is a mathematical theorem, the mathematicians because they think it is an experimental fact.”
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Tania Babina @taniababina.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Might be of interest: @imarinescu.bsky.social @alminas.bsky.social @avigoldfarb.bsky.social @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social @jmorenocruz.bsky.social @julianreif.bsky.social @paulgp.com @johnlist.bsky.social @johnvanreenen.bsky.social
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'm reminded of one of my favorite passages in Banerjee and Duflo's "Good Economics for Hard Times". "The goal of social policy, in these times of change and anxiety, is to help people absorb the shocks that affect them without allowing those shocks to affect their sense of themselves.."
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Alexander Tsai, MD @drdrtsai.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
👀 www.forbes.com/sites/michae...
forbes.com
Phil And Penny Knight Donate $1 Billion To The University Of Oregon
Nike co-founder Phil Knight and his wife Penny have donated $1 billion to the University of Oregon — its largest gift ever — to establish an engineering school in Eugene.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 22/09/2026
lmao dark
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 22/09/2026
my two brains
static.klipy.com
Naruto and Sasuke Confrontation
ALT: Naruto and Sasuke Confrontation
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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
we are such fucking morons it is so unbelievable sometimes
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 20/09/2026
Badly in this video, but yes!
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 20/09/2026
Embracing my 40s (This porch was so loud, my watch gave me 5 100db warnings and I couldn't hear myself at all)
youtu.be
Assistant to the Professors - Porchfest Sept 19, 2026
YouTube video by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19/09/2026
Examples here: paulgp.com/japanesecolo...
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19/09/2026
New color palettes if folks are interested: github.com/paulgp/japan...
github.com
GitHub - paulgp/japanesecolors
Contribute to paulgp/japanesecolors development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19/09/2026
You're thinking just a lasso model, or something else for designing the prediction model?
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 18/09/2026
slick!
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 18/09/2026
You mean for the prediction model?
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John Green @johngreen.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
With apologies if someone has beaten me to the punch... I've cloned and updated the economics job market tracker from @paulgp.com to get a sense for how the market is going so far this year. Good news: better than 2025 Bad news: not by much
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Peter Nencka 📊 @peternka.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
🚨 Announcing OpenCensus, a new project with @ezrakarger.bsky.social : We are transcribing the historical US censuses and releasing them as open data 2.6 million people so far in 1940, browse here: opencensus.us
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SE Gyges @segyges.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I'm back, I missed you all. Since this is an important subject I know too much about, here's a 🧵 explaining that AI Safety Is Mostly A Sex Cult. I don't think these people should make policy. (1/?) (alternative title: Time For Some Cult Theory)
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 16/09/2026
Wow! What a great public good
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Melissa Gentry @melissadgentry.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Are you a disability researcher working in the FSRDC wondering where the 1980s disability variable in the CPS went? I've written a CES Technical Note describing my process of bringing in those missing data! ideas.repec.org/p/cen/tnotes...
ideas.repec.org
Recovering Work-Limiting Disability Variables in the 1980s C
Disability status has been elicited systematically in United States surveys as far back as the 1970s and was included in the March Supplement of the Current Population Survey starting in 1981. Unfortu
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 16/09/2026
Looks super cool. I signed up for the waiting list, excited to learn more about it.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 16/09/2026
The bitterest lesson: "Rich Sutton’s incompleteideas.net/Inc… states that compute beats algorithms. My experience is that Sutton’s bitter lesson is the tip of an iceberg of bitterer lessons: beyond compute and algorithms, there’s data and even picking the right task to do ML on."
typesafe.ai
The Bitterest Lesson - TypeSafe AI Blog
TypeSafe AI is an AI lab building machine-native intelligence infrastructure for automation, designed to make decisions within software. Try our first System One Model, Jev, in early access.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 16/09/2026
This is an extremely cool teachign example
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
There’s a lot of doom & gloom around how AI is affecting higher education. To a certain extent, I get it. AI is making some things harder. But I’ve found that AI has in some ways greatly enhanced my teaching. For one, it’s opened up applied activities that weren’t possible before. One example: 🧵
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/09/2026
Thanks Jo!
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/09/2026
if you wanted to get at the amount for the 0.1 percent, you'd do the top 1 percent minus the 99-99.9 percent
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/09/2026
yes, although the data source for the billionaires is forbes and the rest come from the distributional accounts.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/09/2026
Agreed! Inspired me to read more on this
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15/09/2026
New post reviewing Zidar and Zwick's new book, which I loved. paulgp.substack.com/p/who-is-ric...
paulgp.substack.com
Who is rich in America, and why?
A review of “The Everywhere Millionaire” by Zidar and Zwick
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14/09/2026
Come see our band this weekend at East Rock's Porch Fest at 4pm
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
Made a little VS Code package in the spirit of only using LLMs for editorial comments: github.com/paulgp/margin
github.com
GitHub - paulgp/margin: Source-first, comment-only writing review for Markdown, Typst, and LaTeX
Source-first, comment-only writing review for Markdown, Typst, and LaTeX - paulgp/margin
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 11/09/2026
Interesting split by number of authors
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/09/2026
Nothing quite like the joy of dropping $$ on new band gear (in ear monitors for the vocalists so we're no longer hostage to the lead guitarist)
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/09/2026
Well, from Organization Science I thought this was pretty remarkable: pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/...
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Max Nathan @maxnathan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Really good - and helpful - stuff from @paulgp.com #EconSky 📉📈 paulgp.substack.com/p/how-do-we-...
paulgp.substack.com
How do we know if writing is AI?
Some initial analyses of AI’s impact on economics writing
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Yale Department of Economics @yaleeconomics.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Xiaohong Chen, a renowned scholar who has made fundamental contributions to econometric methods, has been named the Tjalling C. Koopmans Professor of Economics. Read the full announcement here: news.yale.edu/2026/09/08/x...
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