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MC Stan

@mc-stan.org
380 followers 18 following 40 posts

Expressive probabilistic programming language for writing statistical models. Fast Bayesian inference. Interfaces for Python, Julia, R, and the Unix shell. A rich ecosystem of tools for validation and visualization. Home mc-stan.org

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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 17/09/2026
Release of CmdStan 2.40, including new Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc, is now available! Blog post with new features blog.mc-stan.org/2026/09/16/r... Highlights - integrate_1d_double_exponential, a variadic version of old integrate_1d - integrate_1d_gauss_kronrod, a different quadrature rule ...
blog.mc-stan.org
Release of CmdStan 2.40
We are very happy to announce that the 2.40.0 release of CmdStan is now available on Github! As usual, the release of CmdStan is accompanied by new releases of Stan Math, core Stan, and Stanc3. Thi…
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 20/08/2026
StanCon 2026 conference part is over and all the talks are available at StanCon 2026 playlist!
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
There is now StanCon 2026 Uppsala playlist www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... At the moment talks by @mjskay.com, @aseyboldt.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @charlesm993.bsky.social are up, and we'll keep uploading more during the week
youtube.com
StanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
@mjskay.com starting the StanCon 2026 talks with "Systematic uncertainty visualization design (and its foundation in probabilistic models)" All talks are recorded and will be made available after the conference
Photo of a person in front of a lecture hall
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
@florencebockting.bsky.social's guide "Contributing to Stan A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions" at florence-bockting.github.io/stancon-cont...
florence-bockting.github.io
Contributing to Stan
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
@florencebockting.bsky.social starting the StanCon 2026 tutorial: "Contributing to Stan: A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions" to be followed later by @brianward.dev and @bronder.deals
Photo of a small lecture auditorium
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 11/08/2026
Call for StanCon 2027+ If you think you would like to organize the next StanCon (after Uppsala), click the link and read more! discourse.mc-stan.org/t/call-for-s...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Call for StanCon 2027+
We are looking for volunteers to organize the next StanCons for 2027 (and beyond!) If you are interested in making a proposal (or even just discussing the possibility of making one), please consider ...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Final day to register for StanCon 2026: 10th of August! Looking forward to a great conference! discourse.mc-stan.org/t/final-day-...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Final day to register for StanCon 2026 the 10th of August (AoE)
Hi all! Also, the 10th of August (AoE) is the final deadline to register for StanCon 2026. After that we will need to set the final participation list for the practicalities of the conference. The p...
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Matthijs Hollanders @matthollanders.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Turns out continuous time hidden Markov model-step selection functions (HMM-SSF) with unequal sampling intervals sample like a dream in @mc-stan.org🔥
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Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Great to see {epidist} and so @paulbuerkner.com {brms} and @mc-stan.org getting used as part of the reporting of the clinical characteristics of the Bundibugyo Virus outbreak in the DRC.
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Matti Vihola @mattivihola.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Our paper (with Alain Durmus, Samuel Gruffaz, Miika Kailas and Eero Saksman) on the ergodicity of dynamic path length HMC algorithms appeared in the AAP: doi.org/10.1214/25-A.... The results accommodate the 'biased progressive sampling' path selection used in @mc-stan.org.
doi.org
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Rich Ramsey @richramseyphd.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Have you ever tried to combine Positron, renv, brms/CmdStan, Quarto, and Docker into a reproducible scientific workflow in R? I didn't think so. Here is my attempt. #openscience #rstats #positron inspired by: @andrew.heiss.phd @matti.vuorre.com @mc-stan.org github.com/rich-ramsey/...
github.com
GitHub - rich-ramsey/positron-workflow: This project presents a minimal reproducible workflow template for cognitive neuroscience research using Positron, R, Bayesian modelling, and Docker.
This project presents a minimal reproducible workflow template for cognitive neuroscience research using Positron, R, Bayesian modelling, and Docker. - rich-ramsey/positron-workflow
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
🔥 StanCon 2026 Early Bird deadline today (AoE) 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20...
discourse.mc-stan.org
StanCon 2026 deadline today! (AoE)
Hi all, Today is the last day to register for StanCon 2026 at the early-bird rate and order the StanCon 2026 t-shirt. We hope to see you all in Uppsala from the 17th to the 21st of August! More info...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Having seen the submitted talks and posters, StanCon 2026 is going to be awesome!
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arXiv stat.CO Computation @statco-bot.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Trevor Campbell, Jonathan H. Huggins, Kyurae Kim, Charles C. Margossian: Large-scale empirical tuning and comparison of default optimizers for variational inference arxiv.org/abs/2606.07841 arxiv.org/pdf/2606.07841 arxiv.org/html/2606.07841
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Two recommendations for cmdstanr in case studies: 1) use sample(..., refresh=0) to avoid 80 lines of MCMC progress reporting 2) cmdstanr::print_stan_file() in Quarto with output asis to get color formatting ``` #| output: asis print_stan_file(stan_file) ``` e.g., avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...
print_stan_file(bioassay_stan_file)

data {
  int<lower=0> J;  
  vector[J] x;
  array[J] int<lower=0> N;
  array[J] int<lower=0, upper=N> y;
}
parameters {
  real a;
  real<lower=0> b;
}
model {
  {a, b} ~ normal(0, 5);   
  y ~ binomial_logit(N, a + b * x);
}
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 05/06/2026
StanCon tutorials: 1) Full-day introduction to applied Bayesian statistics with Stan: fundamentals of Bayesian inference and the Bayesian workflow, Stan ecosystem by Mitzi Morris
stancon2026.org
Tutorials – Stan Conference 2026
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
🔥 The early-bird deadline for StanCon 2026 (and, even more importantly, the StanCon Uppsala T-shirt) is in one week! 🔥 More information can be found here: discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20...
discourse.mc-stan.org
StanCon 2026: Early bird (and t-shirt) deadline in one week!
Hi all! Also, the 10th of June (AoE) is the early-bird deadline, and after that, the conference fee will increase! Also, only those who register before the 10th of June will be able to buy a StanCon ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 19/05/2026
CmdStan 2.39 has been released! - embedded Laplace approximation - new yule_simon distribution - gamma_lccdf more stable - optimization convergence status in output - length-1 tuples See more at blog.mc-stan.org/2026/05/19/r...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
🔥 StanCon poster deadline and early bird deadline is coming up 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20... @mc-stan.org @avehtari.bsky.social
discourse.mc-stan.org
Stancon 2026: Poster presentation deadline the 27th of May and Early Bird the 10th of June
Hi all! Just a reminder that the last program deadline for StanCon is coming up. The 27th of May is the last deadline for poster presentations. Also, the 10th of June is the early-bird deadline, and...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
In "Uncertainty in Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation based model comparison" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... we showed when LOO-CV elpd_diff and se_diff normal approximation uncertainty quantification in model comparison is well calibrated. We have now merged a related PR to loo R package 1/
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Cristi Proistosescu @cristiproist.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Have you ever read the Sherwood, Webb et al 2020 assessment of ECS and thought "I'd love to play with the numbers if only it didn't take 1 day to sample the posterior?" Rejoice! I've implemented the model in @mc-stan.org, and it now runs in ~1 minute. You can even run it in Google colab: 1/
cdds-uiuc.github.io
Sherwood Webb 2020 in Stan — Google Colab edition - Climate Dynamics and Data Science Notes
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 04/05/2026
If you have benefited from Stan, you can contribute back to the project also by nominating yourself to be part of Stan Governing Body (you don't need to be a developer) discourse.mc-stan.org/t/elections-...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Elections for Stan Governing Body 2026
We’re renewing the Stan Governing Body (SGB) with 2 seats up for grabs (I’m continuing my 2-year term). Current SGB members may still run, however they are not guaranteed to preserve their seats. As i...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
🔥 Announcing the last tutorial on Stancon 2026 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Announcing the last tutorial of StanCon 2026
We are happy to announce the last workshop at StanCon 2026 in August! Contributing to Stan: A Developer’s Guide to the Core, Interfaces, and First Contributions Would you like to contribute a new fe...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
🔥 Announcing StanCon 2026 Program 🔥 Now we have a program for StanCon 2026 in Uppsala in August 17-21! discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Announcing the program for StanCon 2026!
Hi everybody! Now we have a program for StanCon 2026! We have a lot of excellent contributed talks, tutorials, workshops, and keynotes. The full program can be found here: The program may still be...
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 24/04/2026
very early draft of the techniques we show-cased in class: fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn...
fusaroli.github.io
Appendix B — Stan Optimization Cheatsheet – Advanced Cognitive Modeling Notes
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Magnus Johansson @pgmj.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
I've made an R package for Bayesian Rasch #psychometrics with brms models, easyRaschBayes (on CRAN), implementing simple functions to create figures and tables with model fit metrics, etc. Attaching figures from conditional item infit, item-restscore with GK gamma, and the log-likelihood criterion.
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Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Finally finished up a blog post on estimating Bradley–Terry models using brms. www.m-flynn.com/posts/2025-1...
m-flynn.com
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
🔥 We’re pleased to announce two confirmed tutorials for #StanCon2026 🔥 _An introduction to applied Bayesian statistics with Stan_ — Mitzi Morris _Bayesian model diagnostics: Workflows and software tools_ — Osvaldo Martin, Teemu Säilynoja, and Noa Kallioinen More info: stancon2026.org/tutorials/
stancon2026.org
Tutorials – Stan Conference 2026
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
New paper out in JOSS: “ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models” It covers the design principles behind ArviZ and the motivation for the refactoring in 1.0. joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21...
joss.theoj.org
ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models
Martin et al., (2026). ArviZ: a modular and flexible library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(119), 9889, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.09889
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
ArviZ 1.0 brings a lot of new plotting functionality. Check our gallery for a glimpse of what's new: python.arviz.org/projects/plo...
python.arviz.org
Example gallery — arviz-plots dev documentation
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ArviZ @arviz.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
ArviZ now has built-in tools for prior & likelihood sensitivity analysis via power-scaling! Instead of fitting multiple models with different priors, you fit once and use importance sampling to approximate the effect of perturbing the prior or likelihood.
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 08/04/2026
First tentative draft of huge chapter on bayesian models of cognition for my Cognitive Modeling (in @mc-stan.org )course notes: fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn... I'll probably need to split it, as I want to add models of sequential update and empirical data 😅
fusaroli.github.io
Chapter 10 Bayesian Models of Cognition | Advanced Cognitive Modeling Notes
My notes for the advanced cognitive modeling course - 2026
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Matthijs Hollanders @matthollanders.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
occARU: Bayesian (multispecies) occupancy models for ARU data using @mc-stan.org. Automated recording units (ARUs) like camera traps produce rich time series which warrant going beyond occupancy and focusing on detection rates. 1/n mhollanders.github.io/occARU/
mhollanders.github.io
Occupancy Models for Automated Recording Unit (ARU) Data
Bayesian (multispecies) occupancy models for ARU data using Stan.
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 21/03/2026
New Cognitive Modeling in R and @mc-stan.org chapters up: hierarchical modeling and model comparison. Still not satisfied with the text, but I brought the code and concepts up to date (LOO-PIT even, altho' still an info dump). Comments are welcome! fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn...
fusaroli.github.io
Chapter 7 Individual Differences in Cognitive Strategies: The Hierarchical Architecture | 09 — Bayesian Models of Cognition
My notes for the advanced cognitive modeling course - 2026
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 03/04/2026
"Efficient Bayesian implementations of capture-recapture models with Stan" by @matthollanders.bsky.social discourse.mc-stan.org/t/bayesian-c...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
We are happy to announce the second StanCon 2026 workshop: 🔥 Bayesian Inference for Sparsity-Promoting and Edge-Preserving Priors 🔥 More information on the workshop can be found here: www.janglaubitz.com/stancon2026 More info on Stancon 2026 in Uppsala can be found here: www.stancon2026.org
discourse.mc-stan.org
StanCon 2026 Workshop announcement: Bayesian Inference for Sparsity-Promoting and Edge-Preserving Priors in Probabilistic Programming
We’re happy to share the second accepted workshop at StanCon 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden! Bayesian Inference for Sparsity-Promoting and Edge-Preserving Priors in Probabilistic Programming This workshop ...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 21/03/2026
Improved Stan language support in Emacs by Brian Ward discourse.mc-stan.org/t/setting-up... and in Neovim by Andrew Mascioli discourse.mc-stan.org/t/setting-up...
discourse.mc-stan.org
Setting up Emacs for Stan in 2026
It is easier than ever to set up Emacs for Stan development. Here’s a screen shot of the kind of thing you can expect: The entire init.el needed to get this behavior is below (excluding the theme,...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
We hare happy to announce the first StanCon workshop: 🔥 Stan for pharmacometrics 🔥 discourse.mc-stan.org/t/stancon-20... More information on the workshop can be found here: stan4pmx2026.sciencesconf.org
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
I've made a geometrical model for disc golf putting with uncertainty in 2D angle and distance control. Based on the model, the putting angle accuracies of top PDGA MPO and FPO players are about 1° and 1.4°, respectively. See more at users.aalto.fi/~ave/casestu...
Figure shows the proportion of successful putts by distance (where we have integrated out the missing distances) and geometrical model 2 (as presented in https://users.aalto.fi/~ave/casestudies/disc_putting/disc_putting.html) based putting probability by distances based on data for top 33 PDGA MPO players.
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Malte Elson @malte.the100.ci · 10/03/2026
Now published in Collabra! online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art... Using test data from TwinLife (N=9,980, Culture Fair Test CFT 20-R), we show that Regularised Prediction and Poststratification yields IQ scores that differ by up to 19 IQ points (mean 4.19 pts) from those reported in the CFT 20-R manual
online.ucpress.edu
A Case Study on Norming an Intelligence Test Using Regularised Prediction and Poststratification
Valid generalisations from sample to population require representative samples. This is especially the case for psychological test norms as they are only useful to the extent that the normative sample...
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
🔥 Last Keynote for StanCon 2026 🔥 We are happy to present Mathew Kay (@mjskay.com) as a keynote at StanCon in Uppsala in August! More information here: discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing... @mc-stan.org
discourse.mc-stan.org
Announcing StanCon 2026 last keynote
We’re happy to share the last keynote speaker for StanCon 2026! StanCon 2026 will take place 17–21 August 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden - more details can be found at https://stancon2026.org Matthew Kay, ...
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 04/03/2026
my course notes on a bayesian workflow for (single agent) cognitive modeling are now fully revised and online: fusaroli.github.io/AdvancedCogn... Predictive checks, updating checks, sensitivity analyses and simulation based calibration in @mc-stan.org Feedback is very welcome!
fusaroli.github.io
Chapter 6 Chapter 5: Assessing Model Quality | Chapter 5: Assessing Model Quality - Does Our Model Make Sense?
My notes for the advanced cognitive modeling course - 2026
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Øystein Sørensen @osorensen.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Kalman filter. It still targets the correct posterior, but can be orders of magnitude more efficient for some widely used models. Other times it is just a little bit more efficient. Open-source Stan implementation (@mc-stan.org) will be on OSF in the afternoon. Preprint: doi.org/10.48550/arX...
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 28/02/2026
Help to test new progress bar in CmdStanR by @josswright.bsky.social, see more at discourse.mc-stan.org/t/help-us-te...
Progress bar  showing 2800/8000 35% ETA: 4m
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James Bland @jamesbland.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
A new blog post! In which @matterofstats.bsky.social and I estimate our own risk preferences in @mc-stan.org with the hope of best responding to a proper scoring rule. #EconSky #AFL jamesblandecon.github.io/posts/2026-0...
jamesblandecon.github.io
JamesBlandEcon: Estimating some risk preferences to make better decisions
Because I am taking this probabilistic footy tipping thing a bit too seriously
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James Bland @jamesbland.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Like usual, @mc-stan.org eats this stuff up. 7,000 observations, each with its own corresponding latent variable. Model estimated in a bit over 3 hours with no warnings.
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Sam Abbott @seabbs.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Bayesian joint modelling using @mc-stan.org of wastewater and hospital admissions in the US led by @kaitejohnson9.bsky.social and others at the US CDC
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 23/02/2026
Two days to StanCon 202 oral presentation abstract submission deadline!!!
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Måns Magnusson @mansmag.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
🔥 StanCon 2026 third keynote announced 🔥 Kaitlyn Johnson, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine More information here discourse.mc-stan.org/t/announcing... @mc-stan.org
discourse.mc-stan.org
Announcing the third keynote speaker for StanCon 2026
We’re happy to share the third keynote speaker for StanCon 2026! StanCon 2026 will take place 17–21 August 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden. Kaitlyn Johnson, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Jo...
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