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Justin Wolfers

@justinwolfers.bsky.social
171K followers 373 following 3.1K posts

Econ professor at Michigan ● Senior fellow, Brookings ● Intro econ textbook author ● Chief economist & Deputy platypus newsletter.platypuseconomics.com ● Find me: linktr.ee/justinwolfers

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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 7h
One of the most important things I learned from Gary Becker was a small number of economic principles explain more of life than you'd think. That's why I love this field. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 11h
The best cure for ideological bias is find someone on the other side and go to lunch with them.⁣ ⁣ Sometimes we disagree about facts. Sometimes we disagree about values. Figuring out which is which is fun part. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12h
It’s time to mourn the death of cheap money. Let’s not be sad it’s over. Let’s be glad it happened 🥲 newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/whos-afrai...
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Who’s Afraid of High Interest Rates?
Is the Fed raising rates too much? It matters less than you think.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14h
In 1989 CEOs made 60x the average worker. Today it's 325x. I guess the corporate ladder is getting taller. With @svaneksmith.bsky.social newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Wage growth is now running below 3%, the slowest in years. So many families are feeling this right now. youtu.be/mlZg8gQAUTk
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Labor's share of income just hit an all-time low. That means for every dollar a company brings in, workers are taking home smaller and smaller slices. Income keeps shifting to the owners. With @svaneksmith .bsky.social newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Time to slow down, and review the week that was. Join @svaneksmith.bsky.social and me as we try to sort out what matters, what you can ignore, and to find a few golden threads. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBd9...
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The Robot, the Trillionaire, and the Coffee That Broke Us
Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg columnist Stacey Vanek Smith slow down to unpack the one number that quietly shapes your paycheck: labor's share of income. For most of modern history, workers took home…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This labor market has a type, and it's not a guy with a hoodie and a laptop. Its eyes are still on healthcare newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Immigration has been a major influence on population growth in the U.S. For the first time in a long, long time, it's nearly stagnant. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
And so it continues... Our economic debates seem utterly disconnected from the reality. That reality: This is an economy mostly creating healthcare jobs, and it does so month after month, and everything else is just noise.
Line chart titled "Effectively all of the net job creation has been in healthcare and social assistance, and jobs are shrinking in the rest of the economy" showing change in non-farm payrolls since January 2025 through September 2026. Healthcare and social assistance added 998,000 jobs with consistent growth throughout the period, while the rest of the economy lost 222,000 jobs, meaning all net job creation came from healthcare. The rest of the economy showed particular weakness from May through August 2025 when losses reached 218,000 jobs. This striking divergence reveals an unusual concentration where one sector's growth of roughly 48,000 jobs per month has offset persistent contraction across all other industries combined.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Pro-tip: Seasonal blips like this distort month-to-month changes in jobs, leading July to look particularly weak and August to look strong. That's why taking a three-month average is often your best bet.
Line chart titled "The fall then rise in teacher's jobs was mostly a seasonal adjustment glitch" showing jobs in local government education measured in thousands of employees. Employment remained stable around 8.2 million through September 2026 despite an unusual 52,000-job drop in July 2026 that appears to be a seasonal adjustment anomaly rather than genuine job loss. The series grew modestly from 8.15 million in September 2024 to 8.20 million in September 2026, with the July dip to 8.16 million representing a temporary statistical aberration that was largely reversed by August and September.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I'm not sure who saw this coming, but so far nearly all the jobs created during the second Trump administration have gone to women.
Line chart titled "So far during Trump's second term, just 8% of all job growth has gone to men" showing change in employment by gender since January 2025. Total nonfarm employment grew by 776,000 jobs through September 2026, with women gaining 711,000 positions (92% of growth) while men added only 65,000 jobs (8% of growth). Women's employment gains accelerated sharply through 2026, reaching 711,000 by September, while men's employment growth remained flat with brief periods of decline, including a drop of 96,000 jobs in February 2026.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Wage growth just keeps slowing. And yes, wages are rising slower than prices, and no, that's not how economic growth is meant to work.
Line chart titled "Nominal wage growth is slowing" showing year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings of private-sector workers. Wage growth has declined steadily from a peak of 5.9% in early 2022 to 3.0% in September 2026, the slowest rate in the series. This nearly 3 percentage point drop over four and a half years indicates significantly cooler labor market conditions, with the deceleration accelerating in recent months as growth fell from the 3.7-3.9% range in 2025 to the low 3% range currently.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I've been following the two alternative measures of employment for a while. The establishment survey is much more likely to be reliable, though the gap between them is notable. This month the household survey showed reasonably strong employment growth, narrowing the gap a bit.
Line chart titled "The household survey recovered this month, but has been weaker than the payrolls survey" showing non-farm payroll jobs measured in thousands from January 2025 to September 2026. Two data series compare employment: the household survey (adjusted to match payrolls concepts) and the payrolls survey. The payrolls survey shows steady growth from 158.3 million to 159.0 million jobs. The household survey displays much greater volatility, dropping from 158.0 million in November 2025 to a low of 156.4 million in June 2026, then recovering to 157.3 million by September 2026. As of September 2026, the household survey reports 1.8 million fewer jobs than the payrolls survey, highlighting a significant divergence between these two labor market measures.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The unemployment rate is up a tick to 4.2 percent. It's been "around 4 percent" for a couple of years, and looks like it's staying nearby.
Line chart titled "The unemployment rate has been roughly flat over the past two years" showing the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate as a percent of the labor force. The rate stood at 4.2% in September 2026, remaining stable in the 4.0% to 4.5% range throughout 2025 and 2026. This follows a gradual rise from a low of 3.4% in April 2023, representing an increase of 0.8 percentage points over three years before plateauing at current levels.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
An all around weak -- but not tragic -- payrolls report for September. +29k jobs created, about 60k below expectations. Revisions made both July and August look weaker, too. Over the past 3 months, we've an average of a mere +17k per month.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In econ terms: nominal wages are up. Real wages are down.⁣ ⁣ In normal terms: congrats on the raise, sorry about the pay cut. www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0f8dsDt0o4
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The Fed can’t magically reopen the Strait of Hormuz or repeal tariffs.⁣ ⁣ What it can do to slow inflation is freeze the economy until businesses stop raising prices.⁣ ⁣ The only problem with that is people will start losing their jobs. Not the best option.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Kinda surprising when we agree. 100% of economists surveyed by the University of Chicago said that a low-cost diversified index fund is the best investment you can make. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
My students don’t need to understand the mechanics of options trading. But they should understand optionality.⁣ ⁣ Preserving your ability to choose can be valuable on its own. youtu.be/mxaZFKHJM7k
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I can't think of a more effective way to ensure that Jay Powell stays on the Fed, and I want to thank the President for his creative efforts to retain him.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Americans carry $1T in credit card debt. But what worries me is how many people don't know basic personal finance.⁣ ⁣ We spend a lot of time explaining the economy. We should spend more time helping people. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Most People Aren’t Washing Their Financial Hands
Everyone trusts that germs exist. So why don’t people trust economists about money?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This morning's softer PCE inflation numbers appear to have changed the Fed debate. Futures markets reckon the chances of a pre-election hike have fallen sharply, although it remains a very real possibility.
Horizontal bar chart titled "October Fed decision odds: yesterday vs today" shows probability of different Federal Reserve rate decisions. Market expectations shifted dramatically overnight, with the odds of no change plummeting from 57% to 29%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged from 43% to 71%. This 28 percentage point swing transforms a rate increase from a minority view to the clear consensus expectation for the October Fed meeting.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
A quick vocab lesson for the president: if you buy something from me, then we have a "trade deficit". It doesn't mean you got ripped off. It doesn't mean it's unfair. All it means is you ended up with more stuff and I ended up with more cash. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwJqtzkwYQE
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I gave a keynote last week on how we can do a better job in teaching financial literacy. I poured a lot into it, and along the way, convinced myself that it's something I ought to do more of. If you want to see the talk, the whole thing's here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=NE9e...
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The Money Habits Too Many People Skip
YouTube video by Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Once you've got more money than you could ever spend, what's the point of earning another dollar? From my conversation with @RobinsonErhardt.bsky.social
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
In a one-shot game, anything goes. Your reputation doesn't follow you. Just win. ⁣ ⁣ Repeated games look different. Future consequences change present strategy, and the best way forward is cooperation. ⁣ ⁣ From my keynote at the Teaching Personal Finance Conference youtu.be/NE9evhYa32g
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A useful political rule: don't design the rules assuming your team will always be in charge.⁣ ⁣ Eventually, the big red button changes hands. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
My Libertarian Friends Were Right
Do economists have a political bias? What should we do about that?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The bond yield story just keeps getting starker.
Line chart titled "10-Year Treasury Note" showing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note from late 2025 through September 2026. Treasury yields surged dramatically to 5.29 percent on September 29, 2026, the highest level in the period shown. This represents a sharp 130 basis point increase from the October 2025 low of 3.96 percent and a particularly rapid 45 basis point climb over just the final month. After trading mostly between 4.00 and 4.75 percent for nearly a year, yields broke decisively above 5.00 percent in September 2026, signaling a fundamental shift in borrowing costs and market conditions.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Is it the best use of our energy to argue about gas prices? Probably not. From my conversation with @LincolnSquare.media
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Why is your channel called Platypus Economics?" Time to share the back story.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Why is your channel called Platypus Economics?" Time to share the back story.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
His priorities are showing. When gasoline prices spiked, Trump stood on the sidelines. When diesel spiked, he jumped into action. Who is he trying to serve?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The free market wouldn't object to a few oligarchs hoarding all the AI profits while everyone else is scraping by. Markets don't do morality. That's up to us. youtu.be/OAGV50CDgno
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Markets are the great aggregator of preferences, but they don't tell us whether that aggregate is fair or whether society should accept that outcome. We need democracy for that. youtu.be/OAGV50CDgno
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Lotta talk right now about the President using public money to push political propaganda. It didn't start with these TV ads. Let me remind you of the political nonsense he forced the Census Bureau to publish: newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/how-to-fak...
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Who Put the Census Bureau in the Propaganda Business?
A once-trusted agency has dressed up partisan election claims as official statistics—and hidden the evidence needed to test them.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Lotta talk right now about the President using public money to push political propaganda. It didn't start with these TV ads. Let me remind you of the political nonsense he forced the Census Bureau to publish: newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/how-to-fak...
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
Who Put the Census Bureau in the Propaganda Business?
A once-trusted agency has dressed up partisan election claims as official statistics—and hidden the evidence needed to test them.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My belief: This election isn’t about the economy in 2027. It’s about the economy in 2060. Prosperity comes from institutions like the rule of law, markets, a free press, and capitalism (not crony capitalism) newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
newsletter.platypuseconomics.com
We Spend So Much Time Talking About Gas Prices
But is that what we really want to focus on? Also: Is the U.S. economy really the envy of the world?
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Two risks with AI: ⁣ 1: the system slips its guardrails (hack a grocery store to get you the current banana price)⁣ 2: a person with bad intentions uses it as a tool to do harm more efficiently. ⁣ www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUzfGELUOUo
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Lower accountability reads as higher risk. When a town's newspaper closes those local governments end up paying higher interest rates to borrow. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Stripe out! #CoordinationGame
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
We keep getting comments on YouTube about my Golden Pig, so here's the backstory. A little Platypus Economics lore:
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Does more press freedom lead to more responsive government? Short answer: yes. Every time. Why are we going backwards? newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Ask three boring questions: can it be stored, what else is made with it, and are we creating supply? Those punch three big holes in Trump's diesel export ban newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Public choice economics assumes that we're self-interested. That means our job as voters is to design ways to keep politicians accountable. We're their boss youtu.be/PXf0iEBhUaw
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Bold strategy to sanction ourselves before anyone else gets a chance. Trump's diesel export ban needs some reworking. platypuseconomics.substack.com/p/wh…
platypuseconomics.substack.com
Why Is the President Pointing Sanctions at America?
We block Iranian and Russian energy exports to weaken their economies. Now the White House wants to do the same thing to our own diesel.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A quick refresher on correlation vs. causation (something some people clearly need a refresher on right now) youtu.be/PXf0iEBhUaw
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Authors of a 2020 Journal of Financial Economics study of U.S. newspaper closures found that after a closure, towns ended up paying 5–11 basis points more to borrow.⁣ ⁣ Turns out “support local journalism” can also mean “maybe don’t jack up our municipal bond yields.” youtu.be/PXf0iEBhUaw
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
A ban on exporting ribeye makes it less profitable to raise cattle, reducing the supply of both ribeye and brisket. Brisket prices rise. Fuel is also jointly produced: Diesel is ribeye, gas is brisket, and now you can predict where gas prices might go. youtu.be/UwsPWUbGUVs
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Would a diesel export ban actually lower fuel prices? The White House is floating a temporary ban on U.S. diesel exports, and the pitch sounds simple: keep the diesel here, and prices fall for…
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
A ban on exporting ribeye makes it less profitable to raise cattle, reducing the supply of both ribeye and brisket. Brisket prices rise. Fuel is also jointly produced: Diesel is ribeye, gas is brisket, and now you can predict where gas prices might go. youtu.be/UwsPWUbGUVs
youtu.be
302 Moved
Would a diesel export ban actually lower fuel prices? The White House is floating a temporary ban on U.S. diesel exports, and the pitch sounds simple: keep the diesel here, and prices fall for…
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