iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Jan Berz

Markus Tepe @markustepe.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

New in Electoral Studies w/ Eric Linhart & @cerpintaxt.bsky.social: How do voters weigh proportional representation against clear majorities? Our survey experiment in DE, NL & UK finds that voters favor proportionality, esp. when trade-offs are explicit. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

sciencedirect.com

0117

Reposted by Jan Berz

Lukas Stoetzer @lstoetze.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

How do voters deal with the uncertainty which coalition government the party they vote for might ultimately join? Excited to see our paper on this question typeset in @thejop.bsky.social We show that voters are risk-averse and value less uncertain government prospects.

journals.uchicago.edu

University of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent

1158

Reposted by Jan Berz

Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb

First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.

Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.

04918

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

5/5 Special thanks to my colleague and good friend Constantin Wurthmann! After a long journey through peer review, I am deeply grateful to have written the paper together.

010

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

4/5 The findings suggest that candidate evaluations and electoral intentions can diverge, even in a highly salient campaign. Yet, we welcome more evidence on inappropriate emotional displays in particular in different contexts and exploring different types of emotions.

120

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

3/5 However, we find no statistically significant effects on CDU/CSU vote intentions , turnout intentions (or even abstention by prior CDU supporters). Surprisingly our, analysis therefore shows that the widely discussed emotional misstep by a chancellor candidate had no direct electoral cost.

110

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

2/5 Our quasi-experimental Unexpected Event During Survey Design uses German Longitudinal Election Study interviews conducted before and after the incident, balancing respondents on pre-event confounders. We find substantial negative effects across Laschet's likeability, and other characteristics.

110

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

1/5 How costly are inappropriate emotional displays by leaders? @wurthmann.bsky.social and I examine Armin Laschet’s laughter during a speech by the German president after the 2021 July floods in our new Electoral Studies article. Open access: doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103143

doi.org

Redirecting

193

Reposted by Jan Berz

Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

How we speak shapes how we feel represented - using original survey data from Germany, @martingross.bsky.social & @wurthmann.bsky.social show dialect speakers feel less politically represented & prefer politicians who speak their dialect. OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/iVEXmZv @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social

Abstract
Language is central to political representation, yet the role of dialects remains understudied. This study examines how dialects are associated with citizens’ feelings of and preferences for political representation. We argue that dialect use can be a part of social identity: politicians who share their constituents’ dialect may signal local attachment and social proximity. However, dialects also carry social stigma, potentially leading to underrepresentation in a political sphere dominated by standard language. Using original survey data from Germany, we test whether dialect-speaking citizens (1) feel less represented and (2) prefer politicians who speak a dialect. We find support for both: dialect speakers feel less represented and have stronger preferences for dialect-speaking representatives. These results suggest that dialects can serve as a subtle but meaningful form of descriptive representation. Our findings underscore the role of linguistic identity in political inclusion and call for greater attention to language in research on political behaviour.

1189

Reposted by Jan Berz

Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

‼️ Only 10 days left to apply for the PhD position in my group! All info below 👇

026

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Overall, the article shows that voters draw on a broader array of crisis characteristics than existing research has captured - including opposition politicisation - to assess government crisis management. Future work should test these mechanisms with observational data. 9/9

000

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

The experiment also indicates that voters’ political knowledge can be a source of heterogeneity in reactions to crisis. More politically knowledgeable voters pay greater attention to disaster preparedness investments to judge government responsibility for crises. 8/9

100

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Responsibility judgments are more constrained. Voters attribute responsibility for the crisis most clearly when blame signals are plausible: reduced prevention spending, expert warnings, and - more conditionally - elite cues around the crisis. 7/9

100

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Disaster relief matters substantially, but speed does not. Respondents rewarded larger relief efforts and visible executive involvement, while faster relief alone had little effect on performance evaluations. 6/9

100

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Voters infer performance from substantive crisis characteristics: severity, prevention spending, relief spending, and the behaviour of political elites. 5/9

100

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

The core finding is clear: electoral sanctioning after crises is overwhelmingly mediated by perceived crisis management performance. Responsibility for the crisis matters, but voters primarily ask whether incumbents managed the shock competently. 4/9

111

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

To answer this, I use a pre-registered survey experiment with over 800 British voters. Respondents compared crisis scenarios varying by origin, severity, expert warnings, prevention spending, opposition politicisation, PM involvement, and relief spending and speed. 3/9

100

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Existing research shows that crises shape retrospective voting, but we know far less about the specific crisis characteristics voters use to judge incumbents - especially with regard to responsibility for crisis severity. 2/9

100

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

New publication with @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org: In “Crises and Electoral Accountability” I ask how voters evaluate governments after different exogenous crises - and which crisis characteristics affect performance & responsibility judgments by voters. OA: doi.org/10.1017/gov.... 1/9

1187

Reposted by Jan Berz

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 09/06/2026

#OpenAccess from @govandopp.bsky.social - Crises and Electoral Accountability: How Do Individual Characteristics of Crises Affect Performance and Responsibility Evaluations among Voters? - cup.org/4g3GAYI - @janberz.bsky.social #FirstView

011

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Looking for an apartment to rent in Berlin. Ideally around Pankow, flexible on move-in date. If you know of anything or have a lead, please email me at wohnungberz@posteo.de. Grateful for any help or reposts!

000

Reposted by Jan Berz

Lucas Paulo da Silva @lucas-p-dasilva.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

Last week, I defended my PhD dissertation at Trinity College Dublin. I am happy to say that I have joined the esteemed ranks of Dr. Dre, Dr. Pepper, and Dr. Seuss! 😁🎉 Thanks so much to family, friends, colleagues, and especially my PhD supervisors, @cboussalis.bsky.social and @janberz.bsky.social!

3111

Reposted by Jan Berz

Marc Debus @marcdebus.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

Do interpersonal relations affect coalition bargaining? @hannaeback.bsky.social, @michaelimre.bsky.social and I argue that when the Prime Minister is replaced, the incumbency advantage of a coalition will be weakened because of reduced familiarity and trust journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 1/2

22910

Reposted by Jan Berz

Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

In the coming months, I'll be recruiting two PhD students to work with me as part of the Voting & Democracy research group at @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social. So watch this space if you want to join the team and work on this lovely campus!

23710

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

I'm very proud of Lucas, who just published his second single-authored paper! A great track-record since the start of his PhD in 2021.

130

Reposted by Jan Berz

Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

As speakers of the @dvpw.bsky.social's working group Elections and Public Opinion, we invite proposals for a special issue on the 2025 German federal election (to be submitted to Electoral Studies). See: www.dvpw.de/gliederung/a... Also see the previous SI: www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...

02924

Reposted by Jan Berz

Dawn Teele @teele.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

As @cpsjournal.bsky.social editor I read about 100 peer-reviews per month. A 🧵 on what makes a great review: 1.) Succinct summary of the contribution (puzzle, argument, data, evidence) 2.) State clearly in your first paragraph whether the evidence supports the argument.

724068

Reposted by Jan Berz

Peter Egge Langsæther @peterla.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Very happy to share our new article in JoP @thejop.bsky.social, where we explore how parties forge links with social groups (here: social classes) through different appeals and how citizens respond to such appeals. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

86626

Reposted by Jan Berz

Stefanie Reher @stefaniereher.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

My article on voter support for disabled candidates is now published at doi.org/10.1086/732994. I find that left-wing voters in UK+US favour disabled candidates, while right-wing voters prefer non-disabled candidates - but only because voters assume disabled candidates to be more left-wing. [1/2]

doi.org

Voting for Disabled Candidates | The Journal of Politics

Despite important advances in the rights of disabled people, stigma and prejudice remain widespread. Meanwhile, disabled political representatives are few and far between. This raises the question: do...

36823

Reposted by Jan Berz

Electoral Studies @electoralstudies.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

As Germany heads to the polls on Sunday, here are some articles we have published on German elections that can guide you through what to expect… 🗳️ 📊

12012

Reposted by Jan Berz

Lena Stephan @lenastephan.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

Letzte Woche haben @corinnakroeber.bsky.social und ich basierend auf den Kandidierendenlisten & der Wahlrechtsreform geteilt, dass der neue Bundestag deutlich weniger weibliche Abgeordnete beinhalten wird. Unsere Überlegungen dazu könnt ihr bei @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social nachlesen. 📚🕵️‍♀️

0196

Reposted by Jan Berz

Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

🚨 Postdoc Fellow at LSE in Political Behaviour 🚨 We're hiring a 2-3 year postdoc fellow at the LSE to join our great department (with some teaching in political behaviour and comparative European or EU politics) Please spread the word and reach out with questions! jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

jobs.lse.ac.uk

LSE Fellow in Political Behaviour

LSE Fellow in Political Behaviour, , LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university <p style="text-align: cen...

07749

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Thank you so much Or and Roni for a fantastic workshop and outstanding hospitality! It was great to be at the MZES.

020

Reposted by Jan Berz

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 07/02/2025

Had a great time talking all things prime ministers with @janberz.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social, @bittner.bsky.social, and many others in the 2-day workshop Roni Lehrer and I organised @MZES Mannheim. Inspiring stuff.

Left to right: Or Tuttnauer, Jan Berz, Amanda Bittner, Maya Mark, Javier Martinez Canto, Roni Lehrer, Justin Spruit, Michelangelo Vercesi, Lucas Da Silva. Also attended: Ferdinand Müller-Rommel, Florian Grotz, Christoffer Green-Pedersen

2121

Reposted by Jan Berz

Sarah Engler @saengler.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Got my first one today too 👇👇

0102

Reposted by Jan Berz

Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

‼️ New paper out in EJPR! With @mauritsmeijers.bsky.social, we use a new survey item that we fielded in surveys in five countries to examine who accepts party policy change. Check out the 🧵 by Maurits below for an overview of our findings!

14519

Reposted by Jan Berz

Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

EPSA rejection: to all early career people who face this today, I want to say that I had two of them in the past, one of them was published in AJPS in the end, the other has not been submitted yet. Today, my third EPSA rejection. If you have it, too: hear me it means nothing! Enjoy your weekend 😇

311215

Reposted by Jan Berz

Constantin Wurthmann @wurthmann.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

Die "Umfrage" ist nicht repräsentativ. Sie hat die Qualität einer Videotextumfrage. Sie ist manipulierbar. Es gibt die Möglichkeit, mehrfach abzustimmen. Es widerspricht allen Kenntnisständen, die wir zum Wahlverhalten der Gruppe haben. Teilt diesen Unsinn nicht. #AfD www.focus.de/politik/bei-...

focus.de

Bei Homosexuellen belegt die AfD den ersten Platz - mit haushohem Vorsprung

Diese Umfrage dürfte viele überraschen. Ein Datingportal für Homosexuelle hat rund 60.000 Nutzern die Frage gestellt, wen sie bei der kommenden Bundestagswahl wählen würden. Das Ergebnis ist verblüffe...

1375

Reposted by Jan Berz

Mark Kayser @markkayser.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Delighted to see this coming out in @thejop.bsky.social. Some basic science that for data reasons was never done before. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

616642

Reposted by Jan Berz

Lena Masch @lenamasch.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

🚨 New Open Access Publiation! Under the lead of @ronjademel.bsky.social , David Schieferdecker, @hannaschwander.bsky.social , Swen Hutter, Jule Specht and I investigated the role of empathy on attitudes towards refugees and ingroup-outgroup dynamics

Empathy During Crises: Investigating Attitudes, Tolerance, and Ingroup-Outgroup Dynamics in Response to Refugee Movements

1124

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Our book lays a foundation for understanding PM performance & raises new questions: 🤔 Do capable PMs strengthen democracy? 🤔 Does poor PM performance affect elections or democratic trust? We hope this sparks more research on the causes & consequences of PM performance—in CEE & beyond.

020

Reposted by Jan Berz

Corinna Kroeber @corinnakroeber.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

Last but not least, we investigate: What drives prime-ministerial performance? Our analyses highlight:

111

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

How do PMs’ careers & contexts shape their success? We analyzed of 131 cabinets across 11 CEE countries (1990–2021) to find: ✔ PMs are more experienced than assumed ✔ Contexts are stabilizing (e.g., fewer oversized cabinets). Take away: CEE PMs & their challenges are far from uniform!

010

Reposted by Jan Berz

Corinna Kroeber @corinnakroeber.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Is the idea of weak CEE PMs a myth? Our dataset reveals wide variability in PM performance, challenging assumptions of uniform weakness. PMs with strong parliamentary & party backing excelled at conflict resolution & policy influence. CEE PMs are far more dynamic than stereotypes suggest.

011

Reposted by Jan Berz

Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Our paper on how plant disease pandemic destroying olive groves in 🇮🇹 fuelled far right support by activating local community narrative of state neglect forthcoming @apsrjournal.bsky.social 🧵 below ⬇️ For nerds: also presents research design for combing causal inference with ethnographic research

25410

Jan Berz @janberz.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

Thank you very much, Gizem.

000

Reposted by Jan Berz

Aina Gallego @ainagallego.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo

cup.org

Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core

Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging

1128781

Reposted by Jan Berz

Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 12/11/2024

My book “The Normalization of the Radical Right” has recently come out in the US. If you're interested, in this thread I’ll link different ways of learning about the book and its argument (I’ll keep adding if more come out). First, here is the link to the book: academic.oup.com/book/57946

1128872

Reposted by Jan Berz

Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Anti-racist protests reduced AfD vote shares in both the 2021 German Election and the 2024 European Election. While the Greens gained in 2021, *they didn’t in 2024*—likely due to their shift towards anti-immigration policies in government. Important implications for progressive parties. More: 👇

1249