Sign in

Werner Krause

@krausewe.bsky.social
2.7K followers 1.1K following 89 posts

Political Scientist @unipotsdam.bsky.social - Comparative Politics, Political Parties & Voting Behavior - Quantitative Methods & R Prev. Uni Vienna, Humboldt Uni & WZB Berlin krausewe.github.io

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Werner Krause
Denis Cohen @denis-cohen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
@krausewe.bsky.social and I also want to congratulate our co-author @aigneranna.bsky.social on her first publication! 🎉🎉 Anna is a brilliant first-year PhD candidate at @gessunimannheim.bsky.social. 👉 Follow her for research on political behavior, political psychology, and personality in politics.
0226
Reposted by Werner Krause
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb
First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.
04616
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb
First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.
04616
Reposted by Werner Krause
Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
📣 We're hiring! Looking for a PhD position? Join our team in Berlin! Work with @heikekluever.bsky.social and @markuskollberg.bsky.social in #STATEWORK at Humboldt University and join our @dynamics.bsky.social PhD programme Great people, great project, great city! 🗓️ Deadline: 13 October 2026
06554
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Long read by @vox.com on the Saxony-Anhalt state election, the rise and radicalization of the AfD, and the broader implications for German politics, with comments from @casmudde.bsky.social and me. Thanks to @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social for the interesting conversation!
0152
Reposted by Werner Krause
Wissensnetzwerk Rechtsextremismusforschung @wi-rex.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Dieses Paper von @krausewe.bsky.social, @denisevalenti.bsky.social & @tabouchadi.bsky.social kann nicht oft genug hervorgehoben werden. Does accomodation work? Well, no. Sie normalisiert nur die Standpunkte der extremen Rechten. (1/2)
doi.org
Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties - Volume 11 Issue 1
1156
Reposted by Werner Krause
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Im Interview mit dem Freitag habe ich darüber gesprochen warum Wähler:innen radikale Veränderungen wollen, warum das links und rechts anders ist und warum die Erzählung falsch ist die SPD habe die Arbeiter an die AfD verloren. Hier das Interview...
814947
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
In einem Interview mit dem @tagesspiegel.de habe ich über die Sonntagsfrage, ihre Ungenauigkeiten und ihren Einfluss auf Wählende gesprochen. Hierbei ging es auch um meine aktuelle Forschung zum Thema (u.a. mit @christinagahn.bsky.social). www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/die-...
tagesspiegel.de
Die Last-Minute-Macht der Umfragen: „Die Wähler verlassen das sinkende Schiff“
Werner Krause ist Politikwissenschaftler und hat 142 Wahlen in 25 Ländern untersucht. Wie funktionieren Voraussagen – und was beeinflusst ihre Treffsicherheit?
22814
Reposted by Werner Krause
timhellwig.bsky.social @timhellwig.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
New research with Lawrence Ezrow and Werner Krause in @wepsocial.bsky.social We show that more extreme governments are more likely to deliver policy solely to their supporters
tandfonline.com
Policy over votes: why extreme governments respond to their supporters
Responsive government means changes in policy reflect changes in citizen preferences. But which citizens? This study examines that question through the lens of policymakers’ incentives to respond t...
0136
Reposted by Werner Krause
Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
33221
Reposted by Werner Krause
Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Danke @irisbonavida.bsky.social für das Gespräch! Kurz gesagt: Für Parteien an der Vier-Prozent-Hürde macht es einen Unterschied, ob eine Umfrage sie knapp darunter oder knapp darüber zeigt. 📊🗳️ Wer mehr Details wissen möchte – das Paper mit @krausewe.bsky.social gibt es hier: doi.org/10.1086/742632
2309
Reposted by Werner Krause
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
114059
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
114059
Reposted by Werner Krause
Markus Wagner @markuswagner.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
0206
Reposted by Werner Krause
Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
New paper, with Patrick Fournier & @zeynsom.bsky.social, out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social! 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... a brief 🧵
journals.sagepub.com
Do Citizens Perceive an empty Left-Authoritarian Quadrant? Citizen Perceptions of Parties’ Positions in a Multi-Dimensional Space - Ruth Dassonneville, Patrick Fournier, Zeynep Somer-Topcu, 2026
Given that there are few parties in the left-authoritarian quadrant of a two-dimensional ideological space, citizens that combine economically left and sociocul...
25711
Reposted by Werner Krause
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Heading to the #EPSSBelfast conference next week? The EPSS Diversity Committee has organized several events to make this a welcoming space for everyone. Quick thread on what's happening and when 👇
11710
Reposted by Werner Krause
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
320799
Reposted by Werner Krause
Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
One of the most intriguing papers I read during the last years 👇
2104
Reposted by Werner Krause
Christina Gahn @christinagahn.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Excited to share our new paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @krausewe.bsky.social! Parties polling just below an electoral threshold are far less likely to clear it: a self-fulfilling prophecy that diminishes when polls communicate uncertainty. 🗳️📊 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
57018
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
320799
Reposted by Werner Krause
Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
513952
Reposted by Werner Krause
Katjana Gattermann @kgattermann.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Less than 1 week left to apply for this exciting postdoc opportunity ⬇️ @kathleenbeckers.bsky.social & I look forward to receiving applications 😀
01416
Reposted by Werner Krause
Marc Hooghe @marchooghe.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Voters for extreme right protest parties have lower levels of subjective well-being, @stevendekeyser.bsky.social, @dieterstiers.bsky.social and I show in a new article in Journal of Happiness Studies @isqols.bsky.social . The effect, however, is almost fully mediated by anti-immigrant sentimens.
182
Reposted by Werner Krause
Konstantin Bogatyrev @bogatyrev.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
New paper w/ @lstoetze.bsky.social "Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls" out in @polanalysis.bsky.social 👀 When your outcomes are compositional (such as vote shares), applying synthetic controls separately to each part can break the math. We show how to fix it: 🧵
27320
Reposted by Werner Krause
Lena Maria Huber @lenamariahuber.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
📣 New paper out in BJPolS 📣
16623
Reposted by Werner Krause
Diane Bolet @dianebolet.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
A reminder that applications for this 3-year fully funded PhD position close at the end of next week (May 17). This is a great opportunity to work on climate politics comparative politics in a vibrant environment, with loads of freedom to develop your own project. www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...
sciencespo.fr
Call for applications for a 3 years doctoral contract
For the ERC GREENLOSS Project - Application deadline: May 17, 2026
02221
Reposted by Werner Krause
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Very happy to share that I am going to be the new Director of the Democracy unit at the @wzb.bsky.social Berlin Social Science Center. I am excited to form a new research unit on democratic politics and to engage with people in Berlin and elsewhere to make liberal democracy more resilient.
10797681
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
@zeit.de (@tilsteff.bsky.social) mit einem einordnenden Beitrag zum Landesparteitag der AfD in Magdeburg, zu dem auch ich einige Sätze beitragen durfte. > Die AfD ist in Sachsen-Anhalt nicht nur normalisiert und etabliert, sondern auch in sich selbst gewöhnlicher geworden. tinyurl.com/2j4b96ey
zeit.de
AfD-Wahlprogramm Sachsen-Anhalt: Sanfter Ton, radikale Pläne
Zur Wahl im September nimmt die AfD in Sachsen-Anhalt Anlauf auf die absolute Mehrheit. Wie wahrscheinlich ist, dass es dazu kommt? Besuch des Parteitags
050
Reposted by Werner Krause
Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
🚨 New paper accepted at the @bjpols.bsky.social: we were in the field while Brexit dominated British politics. Do MPs respond differently when constituents disagree with the party line? What we find surprised us: a null! url: osf.io/preprints/os...
36826
Reposted by Werner Krause
Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Popular attitudes are often seen as a safeguard against democratic backsliding: if citizens don’t oppose lib democracy, politicians have little incentive to erode it. In @cpsjournal.bsky.social I argue that, while intuitive, this reasoning conflates two states of the world: doi.org/10.1177/0010...
110938
Reposted by Werner Krause
Tristan Klingelhöfer @klingelt.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
The standard model of liberal, representative democracy is increasingly being challenged from the bottom and the top. In a new paper @Party Politics, Gidi Rahat and I seek to explain why political parties differ in the conception of democracy they advance. doi.org/10.1177/1354...
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
1177
Reposted by Werner Krause
European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
🌀 📊 How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes? 🗳️ @krausewe.bsky.social & @christinagahn.bsky.social examine how election polls can shape voter behaviour, from bandwagon effects to strategic voting, and why their influence is more complex than it first appears 🤔
buff.ly
How powerful are polls in influencing election outcomes?
Werner Krause and Christina Gahn argue that we need to pay more attention to how the media communicates the results of opinion polls to the public. Reporting methodological details, such as margins…
02415
Reposted by Werner Krause
Korinna Lindemann @korinlind.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Very happy to share that our paper "Political socialization and immigrants' support for progressive politics: the case of green parties" with @antvalentim.bsky.social is now published in @psrm.bsky.social! Link to paper: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Short summary in 🧵below: (1/5)
35316
Reposted by Werner Krause
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
EPSS Travel Grants for 2026 Belfast conference: PhD students & junior scholars @ institutions in European countries that are often underrepresented, can apply for full fee waiver & £500 stipend Apply: lnkd.in/ehXjhCgf Deadline: March 8, 11:59pm GMT. More details: lnkd.in/eZTP5sWR
lnkd.in
LinkedIn
This link will take you to a page that’s not on LinkedIn
03137
Reposted by Werner Krause
zweitstimme.org @zweitstimme.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
🗳️ Neue Prognose: Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg (8. März) und Rheinland-Pfalz (22. März) BW: Kopf-an-Kopf CDU vs. Grüne. RP: CDU und SPD fast gleichauf. Unsere Modellvorhersage mit 5/6-Kredibilitätsintervallen und Szenario-Wahrscheinlichkeiten 👇 zweitstimme.org/posts/blog/f...
1257
Reposted by Werner Krause
Nicolai Berk @nicolaiberk.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
🚨 TADA Speaker Series Spring 2026 schedule is here! 🚨 We've assembled a fantastic lineup of researchers exploring the future of survey research in the age of LLMs. Mar 18 - May 27, online at 17:00 CEST. Join us! More info & signup: tada.cool
An image of the schedule with speaker images. You can find the full schedule on tada.cool.
03823
Reposted by Werner Krause
Christopher Barrie @cbarrie.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
🧵on my new paper "Synthetic personas distort the structure of human belief systems" w Roberto Cerina I'm v excited about... 🚨 Do synthetic samples look like human samples? We compare 28 LLMs to the 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) to find out + develop host of diagnostics...
618282
Reposted by Werner Krause
Lena Maria Huber @lenamariahuber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Very happy to see our new article “Reference groups and electoral behavior” (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published! Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.
doi.org
Reference groups and electoral behavior | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Reference groups and electoral behavior
24415
Reposted by Werner Krause
Simon Munzert @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Ich durfte in der @taz.de ein bisschen was zu Umfragen erzählen, und was soll ich sagen - Berichte über den Tod von Umfragen sind stark übertrieben...
0254
Reposted by Werner Krause
Korinna Lindemann @korinlind.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
We‘re very excited for the next edition of the Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim! ✨ Join us and apply until 1 March! More info in @melinscribe.bsky.social‘s thread below and here: summerschoolwpm.org Application form: sosci.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/wpm/
02821
Reposted by Werner Krause
Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 27/01/2026
Going forward from today, I’ll stop publishing and just repost this meme regularly #AcademicWriting #farright #radicalright
Two astronauts in space, one pointing a gun at the other, with Earth in the background and text reading “SO-CALLED RIGHT-WING POPULISM,” “Wait, it’s all RACISM?”, and “Always has been.”
2529
Reposted by Werner Krause
Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
NEW PAPER ALERT! My paper, with @bjornhoyland.bsky.social , on how “policy loss” shapes support for the EU has just been published in @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Check it out! 1/
111936
Reposted by Werner Krause
Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
🧵 PhD position (75%) in Political Behavior / Political Communication / CSS 📍 LMU Munich | ⏳ 3 years | 🗓 start March–May 2026 We’re hiring for DemocraGPT, a @bidt.bsky.social-funded project developing an AI-based training for difficult conversations in times of growing polarization
24341
Reposted by Werner Krause
Jens Rydgren @jensrydgren.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
The radical right’s master frame remains ethnic nationalism. Remigration is simply one of its logical consequences. First came stopping (or minimizing) immigration; next is pushing people with migrant backgrounds to leave. Expect further radicalization.
22112
Reposted by Werner Krause
Corinna Kroeber @corinnakroeber.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 Postdoc in Comparative Politics/Public Opinion (2 years) We’re hiring a 100% Postdoc at the University of Greifswald. ✨ What makes this job special: Two full years to focus on research (no teaching, no admin overload) embedded into an International Research Training Group
uni-greifswald.de
Postdoctoral Research Associate - International Research Training Group 2560 “Baltic Peripeties" 25/E19
Stellenausschreibung Institut für Politik- und Kommunikationswissenschaft
13641
Reposted by Werner Krause
Elena Leuschner @elenaleuschner.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
The Christmas prepping was prepping, and I almost forgot to tell you that @miguelpereira.bsky.social is coming all the way to Münster to present work on politicians' ability to use evidence in policy making! This Wednesday, find the Zoom link below 👇 @danbischof.bsky.social @mwegemann.bsky.social
2236
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Die AfD scheint ihre Potentiale unter den Wählenden aktuell ausgeschöpft zu haben. Ob dies auch so bleibt hängt, insbesondere von den Regierungsparteien und ihren Signalen nach Rechtsaußen ab. @zeit.de mit einem spannenden Beitrag zum Thema, zu dem ich auch einige Einschätzungen beisteuern durfte.
0224
Reposted by Werner Krause
Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
🚨Job News: Postdoc positions in LSE Government Department 🚨 Apply to work with the brilliant and wonderful Carl Muller-Crepon @carlmc.bsky.social on his BORDERS ERC project at LSE @lsegovernment.bsky.social jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...
14332
Reposted by Werner Krause
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
📢📢 Happy to announce a new update to the PPEG database! The data now covers - > 3.000 parties - 1.100 parliamentary elections - 402 presidential elections - 2.044 cabinets across 73 countries (1945 - 2025, Oct 31). All info: ppeg.wzb.eu We hope that data is helpful to the community!
19232
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
📢📢 Happy to announce a new update to the PPEG database! The data now covers - > 3.000 parties - 1.100 parliamentary elections - 402 presidential elections - 2.044 cabinets across 73 countries (1945 - 2025, Oct 31). All info: ppeg.wzb.eu We hope that data is helpful to the community!
19232