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Javier Martínez-Cantó

@javiermcanto.bsky.social
1.3K followers 1K following 110 posts

César Nombela Research Fellow at @ipp-csic.bsky.social. Before: @europeatharvard.bsky.social, @ibei.org, @uni-konstanz.de, @uni-bamberg.de. Studying political representation, party politics & legislatures. www.javiermcanto.es

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Reposted by Javier Martínez-Cantó
Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Es gibt Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Aber es gibt auch Mecklenburg und Vorpommern. Wie wir heute Abend voraussichtlich wieder sehen werden, unterscheiden sich beide Regionen deutlich in ihrem Wahlverhalten. Woher kommen diese Unterschiede? Ein Thread mit Daten aus dem Kaiserreich bis heute. 🧵
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Andreu Paneque @anddreupm.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Coming to the end of the @ecpr.bsky.social General Conference in Krakow! Four papers presented with my wonderful co-authors — Jean-Baptiste Harguindéguy, @danicetra.bsky.social @javiermcanto.bsky.social, Emma Turiño & Sebastian Ziegler. Amazing discussions, new ideas, and inspiring conversations.
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Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
📢 New paper out FirstView @bjpols.bsky.social "Calculation and Conscience: : Motivations for the Substantive Representation of Ethnic Minorities" with Stephnie Zonszein , Apurav Bhatiya & William Dinneen
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European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
4 X Postdoctoral Fellowships #ECPRMemberJobs 🎓 Doctoral degree granted between 30 September 2024 and 1 October 2026 🏫 Universität Konstanz ⌛ Monday 12 October 🔗 buff.ly/mRkXCDp #PolSciJobs #PoliSky #AcademicSky
uni-konstanz.de
https://www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskolleg/fellowships/postdoctoral-fellowship/?utm_source=brevo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Jobs-Aug-26&utm_id=2322
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Este artículo explica cómo está diseñado el sistema universitario español y por qué nuestras universidades no pueden competir en el ranking de Shanghái: muchas de las cosas que este ranking premia no existen en España, no por casualidad, sino por diseño. www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2026-...
elconfidencial.com
Por qué las universidades de andar por casa se caen de los ‘rankings’ (y quizá dé igual)
Ocho universidades españolas han desaparecido este año del ranking de Shanghái. Casi todas son pequeñas, provinciales y de proximidad: castigadas por su tamaño en una lista que mide el volumen investigador, pero insustituibles para muchas familias
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RTVE Noticias @rtvenoticias.rtve.es · 20/08/2026
Hallan en el Archivo Militar de Ávila el que podría ser el primer Estatuto de Autonomía de Asturias dozz.es/_k4q53
dozz.es
Hallan en el Archivo Militar de Ávila el que podría ser el primer Estatuto de Autonomía de Asturias
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zweitstimme.org @zweitstimme.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Unsere Prognosen für die drei Landtagswahlen im September sind ab sofort online. In Sachsen-Anhalt liegt die AfD in Umfragen bei über 40 Prozent — aber reicht es für eine absolute Mehrheit der Sitze? Die klassische Sonntagsfrage kann diese Frage nicht beantworten.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Did Nazi marches persuade or polarize voters? In 1932 Hamburg, full exposure raised Nazi vote share by ~1 pp (18% of citywide gain), but only by widening divides: support rose in Nazi-leaning areas and fell in opposition areas. Spillovers made up ~half the effect. academic.oup.com/jeea/advance...
GOING VIRAL: PROTESTS AND POLARIZATION
IN 1932 HAMBURG
Bruno Caprettini
University of St. Gallen, Switzerland
Marcel Caesmann
University of Zurich, Switzerland
Hans-Joachim Voth
University of Zurich, Switzerland
David Yanagizawa-Drott
University of Zurich, Switzerland
Abstract
Political polarization is a growing concern in many countries. Are mass protests merely a sign of increasing cleavages, or do they polarize societies? In this paper, we estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data from 622 voting precincts during six elections.
We show propaganda can persuade—but it does so by raising the share of areas with high levels of Nazi support. Importantly, marches can also backfire, repelling voters. Thus, protest marches lead to polarization.
These effects diffused through social networks, measured using contagion patterns across neighborhoods during the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak. The electoral effects of social spillovers are similar in importance to those of direct exposure and grow over time.
(JEL: D72, D74, N44)Figure 3. Nazi Party swing. The map shows a heatmap of the change in NSDAP vote share after the marches. The change is calculated between the two elections before the marches (13 March and 10 April 1932) and the three elections afterward (31 July 1932–5 March 1933).
Voting behavior is observed at the polling-station level. The average change in NSDAP vote share is computed using a spatial kernel with a fixed bandwidth of 500 meters around each polling station and divided into 10 equally sized groups. Darker colors indicate larger gains for the NSDAP. Black lines show the routes of the two Nazi marches in April 1932.
Sources: Voting data: Statistical Bulletin of Hamburg (Sköllin 1932a, 1932b, 1933); Nazi marches: SA Hamburg documents (State Archive Hamburg 1932a, 1932b).Figure 5. Distribution regression of direct exposure. The figure plots the estimated effect of direct exposure to Nazi marches using the main panel of elections from 1932 and 1933 (y-axis). The dependent variable equals 1 when the NSDAP vote share exceeds the threshold shown on the x-axis. Thresholds range from the 5th to the 95th percentile of the NSDAP vote-share distribution in increments of 2 percentage points.
The vertical line marks the 29% crossing point between backlash—a negative effect of direct exposure—and persuasion—a positive effect. The p-value for backlash tests whether all exposure coefficients below the 29% threshold are jointly zero. The p-value for persuasion applies the analogous test to all coefficients above 29%.
The regressions control for polling-station and election fixed effects, street and demographic characteristics interacted with election fixed effects, and indirect exposure to the marches. Standard errors are clustered at the polling-station level. See equation (3) and the paper for details of the joint tests.Figure 7. Indirect effect. Panel (a) plots a bin scatter of flu-based indirect exposure (x-axis) against the change in NSDAP vote share after the marches (y-axis). The change in NSDAP vote is calculated between two elections before the marches (13 March and 10 April 1932) and three elections afterward (31 July and 6 November 1932, and 5 March 1933). The t-statistic is estimated from a bivariate regression with robust standard errors. See the main text and Online Appendix for the construction of the flu-based indirect-exposure measure.
Panel (b) plots estimates of flu-based indirect exposure from equation (6), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals by election (computed from Table 4, column 5).
Sources: Nazi marches: SA Hamburg documents (State Archive Hamburg 1932a, 1932b); indirect exposure: death records (State Archive Hamburg 1917, 1918, 1919); voting data: Statistical Bulletin of Hamburg (Sköllin 1930, 1932a, 1932b, 1933).
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Štěpán Jabůrek @stepanjaburek.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
🚨New Data🚨 We just released the "Machine-translated ParlSpeech V2" on Harvard Dataverse! It contains 3.5M parliamentary speeches from 7 countries (AT, CZ, DE, DK, ES, NL, SE) translated into English using open-source models. w/ Adam Černý @chrauh.bsky.social @janschwalbach.bsky.social ⬇️
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Alice Stollmeyer @stollmeyer.eurosky.social · 01/08/2026
Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister: "We have detected intensive Russian propaganda campaign across Europe using pictures from Ceuta to sow destabilisation." Far-right from EU (& US!) falls with open eyes for hybrid threats from the weaponisation of migration, even fan the flames. #unity #solidarity
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
It's not like the old owner of CBS (Paramount), Shari Redstone, was a saint. But she had an incentive to maintain the audience, advertisers, and some semblance of journalistic reputation. As a _common owner_, Ellison has greater incentive to cozy up to the administration even if it kills CBS.
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Universität Konstanz @uni-konstanz.de · 10/07/2026
The #UniKonstanz Senate and University Council elected @leuffen.bsky.social, a political scientist and current Vice Rector for Research, Innovation and Impact at the University of Konstanz, to succeed Katharina Holzinger. Details: t1p.de/udjt4
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
📊 El Barómetro del CEO de hoy: Aliança Catalana ya compite con ERC por la 2ª posición y Junts cae. Sumando a Vox, la derecha radical rozaría el 28% del Parlament. Hace poco, analizamos el fenómeno en el ICPS, con foco en el papel de la inmigración. 📄 www.icps.cat/archivos/Qua...
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Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos @ipp-csic.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Ayer clausuramos la ☀️ IPP Summer School '26 ☀️ Tres intensas jornadas de formación, intercambio de ideas y aprendizaje. ¡Gracias a @albertomarquez.bsky.social, Ernesto Ganuza, @giselahg.bsky.social, @chalsito.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social, @isabelrodrz.bsky.social y a todos los asistentes!
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Reposted by Javier Martínez-Cantó
Odelia Oshri @odeliaoshri.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 New paper! Does social integration change how minorities vote? Classic theories say yes: voting patterns should converge with the majority. But looking at Muslim Turks in Germany, we found the exact opposite. A thread on the integration puzzle 👇
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/06/2026
In a new post, I pull data from four different sources --- arXiv, NBER working papers, SSRN, and the AEA --- to look at how much working paper growth and submissions have changed with the growth of AI. paulgp.substack.com/p/the-number...
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
📢 Quins factors expliquen l'ascens de la dreta radical a Catalunya? Qui la vota? Quins discursos connecten amb una part creixent de la ciutadania? El 10 de juny presentaré a l'ICPS el quadern que he coescrit amb @julitudo.bsky.social Inscripcions: www.icps.cat/fd-inscripci... #Vox #AliançaCatalana
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
65.2 🫐 Are MP's putting their best foot(print) forward? 👣 @lucasgeese.bsky.social and @chantal-st.bsky.social use rare data to understand the impact carbon footprint of voters has on an MPs #Decarbonisation focus asking whether politician's prioritise #NetZero, or electoral gains🌍️
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High emissions, low engagement? How members of parliament represent the carbon footprint of their constituents | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
High emissions, low engagement? How members of parliament represent the carbon footprint of their constituents - Volume 65 Issue 2
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
¿Hay estudios sobre el cambio electoral en Andalucía durante la última década? Tengo la impresión de que es un fenómeno más estructural que el desgaste por los ERE o los casi 30 años de gobierno socialista. elpais.com/espana/elecc...
elpais.com
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
¿Por qué demoler un monumento brutalista como San Siro para construir un estadio con estética de la NBA? El problema no es el estadio: es que quieren más palcos VIP. . www.ft.com/content/bbf1...
ft.com
Milan’s San Siro stadium is unique. So why is it set to be demolished?
It is one of football’s most dramatic modern arenas — but both its brutal beauty and its cultural legacy are threatened
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Reposted by Javier Martínez-Cantó
European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
🆕 Is this what you wanted? 🆘 @simonotjes.bsky.social, @sgparliaments.bsky.social's convenor David Willumsen, & Michael Jankowski find that increasingly complex multi-party systems may be leaving the 'winning' voter dissatisfied in the #Coalition's that form 😒
buff.ly
How the coalition formation process and coalition preferences shape satisfaction with democracy | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
How the coalition formation process and coalition preferences shape satisfaction with democracy
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Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos @ipp-csic.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Solo quedan 2 meses para la 2ª edición de nuestra ☀️ IPP Summer School ☀️ Del 6 al 8 de julio en Fregenal de la Sierra, Badajoz. Con Ernesto Ganuza, @giselahg.bsky.social, @chalsito.bsky.social, @javiermcanto.bsky.social e @isabelrodrz.bsky.social Inscripciones abiertas: forms.gle/DkzVam6BpyN5...
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Gabor Scheiring @gscheiring.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
New podcast on Hungary's morning after. We discuss what the post-Orbán transition tells us about Europe's far-right landscape, and why professional-class enthusiasm about the death of illiberalism is running ahead of structural reality. twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/peter-magy...
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
From our FirstView: When the Church Votes Left: How Progressive Bishops Supported the Workers’ Party in Brazil by GUADALUPE TUÑÓN doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Giovanni Capoccia @gcapoccia.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
The special issue of @cpsjournal.bsky.social “Back from the Brink: Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies”, co-edited by myself and Isabela Mares, was just published. The issue includes 8 articles, many of which set new research agendas. A🧵w/overview 1/10 journals.sagepub.com/toc/CPS/curr...
journals.sagepub.com
Comparative Political Studies - Volume 59, Number 6
Table of contents for Comparative Political Studies, 59, 6
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
El miércoles en el Seminario del @ipp-csic.bsky.social IPP-CSIC, @llschenoni.bsky.social nos presenta "Bringing War Back In" (Cambridge UP, 2024): cómo las guerras del siglo XIX moldearon el Estado en América Latina. ¡Os esperamos! #CienciaPolítica #AméricaLatina
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Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
The Blackness scale might be one of my favorite parts of the paper. People often talk about identity as continuous (“She’s Black, but she ain’t Black Black”), so we developed a way to capture that perception. We then estimate how much different traits predict those ratings.
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WIRED @wired.com · 13/04/2026
As major news outlets including USA Today Co. and the New York Times restrict the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine from archiving their stories, journalists and advocacy groups are rallying to protect the vast collection of web pages.
wired.com
The Internet's Most Powerful Archiving Tool Is in Peril
As major news outlets cut off the Wayback Machine, journalists and advocacy groups are rallying to protect the Internet Archive’s vast collection of web pages.
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Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik @laurenzennser.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
"Democracy is a system in which parties lose elections." (@adamprz.bsky.app) Sometimes that's even true for non-democracies. #Hungary
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Regional & Federal Studies @regfedst.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
​​⏪ 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗙𝗦… 🇪🇸 @javiermcanto.bsky.social & @julitudo.bsky.social examined the similarities, differences, and dynamics of competition between #Vox and #AliançaCatalana in #Catalonia. 🗳️ What factors influence voters to choose between them? 🔓 Article in #openaccess here 👉 doi.org/10.1080/1359...
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🆕 Beyond Policy: Identity in Party Competition 🗳️ Christina Zuber, of @ecprsgpp.bsky.social, @drphilipjhowe.bsky.social & Edina Szöcsik rethink how parties win #Elections arguing that success depends not only on policy preferences, but on linking preferences to #GroupIdentities
buff.ly
Group identities and party competition | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Group identities and party competition
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Michael Hankinson @hankinson.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Building affordable housing ➡️ support for funding housing. Nearby homeowners ⬆️ support; renters ⬇️ support. Both are “the policy adjacent”—secondhand recipients & drivers of policy feedback. Forthcoming @ajpseditor.bsky.social ( doi.org/10.1111/ajps...) w/ A. Magazinnik & @msands.bsky.social 1/9
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lucasgeese.bsky.social @lucasgeese.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
📚 End-of-week highlight: the Festschrift for @thomas-saalfeld.bsky.social, my PhD supervisor, arrived. Delighted to have contributed to this wonderful volume. It brings back many happy Bamberg memories. Huge thanks to @jmfernandes86.bsky.social and @javiermcanto.bsky.social, and congrats to Thomas 🎉
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European Social Survey @ess-survey.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
As part of the Infra4NextGen project, funded by @scienceinnovation.ec.europa.eu 🇪🇺, harmonised datasets are now available. These include #data from social surveys that has been harmonised to make them as comparable as possible, even if the question text and response scales differed.
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First versions of harmonised data now available | Infra4NextGen
As part of the Infra4NextGen project, harmonised datasets for each of the five themes have been published for the first time on the NextGen Harmonised Data Gateway.
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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Why are we observing a 'green backlash' when serious efforts to decarbonise have scarcely begun? I'm happy to share my working paper, 'The Political Consequences of Climate Ambition: Evidence from Australia', which analyses how voters respond prospectively to proposed climate policies. Brief 🧵:
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POP @populismblog.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
The far right in Spain and Portugal didn’t go mainstream alone. The Iberian media system played a key role in their normalization 📺📻📰 2 new publications out now🔥 This marks the closing chapter of my project POLAR, a research journey that began in 2021. A 🧵on how Vox and Chega became mainstream 👇
A family with 3-d glasses shocked by what they see on their mobile devices screens
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Konstanz Methods Excellence Workshops @komex.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
🧵 #KOMEX2025 Outstanding Course Award goes to @na-wehl.bsky.social 1/ for "A Hands-on Introduction to Longitudinal and Panel Data Analysis" Students knew from session 1 they were in expert hands. @uni-konstanz.de @excinequality.bsky.social @methodsnet.bsky.social
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Daniel Cetrà @danicetra.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Últim dia per presentar-hi candidatura! 🚨 RA en discurs polític, nacionalisme i immigració comparada 👇
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Jakob-Moritz Eberl @jamoeberl.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Social scientists keep explaining why consistent time series are indispensable for understanding social change. And now Gallup ends the longest-running pres. approval series. Striking – esp. from the institution that helped institutionalize representative sampling in modern public opinion research
axios.com
Gallup's presidential approval ratings poll is ending after eight decades
Gallup said it will remain committed to polling on issues that shape everyday lives.
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
El jueves organizamos desde el @ipp-csic.bsky.social una charla sobre cómo los nuevos desafíos de seguridad y defensa impactarán en nuestros estados del bienestar. ¡Animaos a asistir!
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Joan Romero dio clase a casi todas las promociones de Políticas en la @uv.es... menos a la mía, porque estaba de estancia. Siempre me dio rabia no haberle tenido como profesor, pues todos mis compañeros le admiraban. Y este gesto lo confirma una vez más. elpais.com/educacion/20...
elpais.com
Joan Romero, el profesor que escapó del campo por una beca y ahora las paga de su bolsillo: “La brecha hoy es poder hacer un máster”
El catedrático de Geografía Humana repasa sus casi 50 años como docente universitario tras hacer una donación para ayudar a estudiantes con pocos recursos
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Sebastian Karcher @adam42smith.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Zotero 8 is out in stable: www.zotero.org/blog/zotero-8/ A bunch of new stuff -- the new citation dialog especially is a huge (and long overdue) improvement; massively speeds up anything I do in Word/GDocs with Zotero
zotero.org
Zotero Blog » Blog Archive » Zotero 8
Zotero is a free, easy-to-use tool to help you collect, organize, cite, and share research.
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Jen Jennings @jenjennings.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
If you're hoping to show students evidence to support your tech rules/interactive pedagogical approach, here's what I use. Decidedly not comprehensive, but makes the key points.
1) You learn more without laptops—they distract you from me, your peers, and the material.

2) You learn more taking notes by hand, even if it feels less effective.

3) You learn more when your phone is completely out of sight—face down isn’t enough.

4) You learn more by actively engaging with peers, even if it feels you are not.

5) You learn more when this class is a supportive, connected community.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 08/01/2026
For young, entry-level workers, sharing rent with roommates is a rite of passage. But as living costs continue to rise and as homeownership becomes less achievable for young adults, older adults are making up a growing share of live-in landlords. trib.al/4jvD8Ox
A chart titled "Welcome to the Era of 65-Year-Old Roommates." Text reads: "As living costs continue to rise, more older adults are rending out rooms in their own homes, a comparison of the share of listing of rooms to rent on the SpareRoom platform in 2019 and 2024 shows."
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Environmental Politics @environmentalpol.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
New article! The losers of ecological transitions: rural and urban support for green policies in Spain, by Marta Vallvé @martavallve.bsky.social & Eva Anduiza @evaanduiza.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/0964...
Green policies can be contentious, with opposition often highlighting rural-urban divides. In this article we measure and analyse the perceptions of harm associated with several green policies (renewables, motor fuel taxes, car restrictions, conservation restrictions, and pesticide and antibiotics bans). We conceptualize these perceptions of harm as an individual dimension of the environmental justice paradigm, closely related to support for green policies and its characteristic rural-urban gap. Using survey data from Spain, our findings reveal that perceptions of harm, together with postmaterialist values and environmental prioritization, are associated with support for green policies. However, only differences in perceptions of harm account for the rural-urban gap, which is modest in size and remains partly unexplained. Our findings suggest that rural dwellers are not less supportive of green policies because they have weaker postmaterialist values or prioritize the environment less, but because they feel they are the losers of ecological transitions.
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Happy to see my article with @julitudo.bsky.social already as the journal’s second-most-read in 2025, despite being published only in early November. Many excellent pieces in @regfedst.bsky.social in 2025. Do check them out!
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Algún día habrá que hablar del extraordinario sistema de captura de rentas que han conseguido ser las agencias de viaje en la administración pública.
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Make a Bond movie academic: On The Publisher's Secret Service
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Javier Martínez-Cantó @javiermcanto.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Make a Bond movie academic: Sci-Hub: From Russia with Love
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