Reposted by Florian GawehnsAndy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 13/07/2026Electoral reform in the US has often pursued an anti-party route, but there's a growing critique of how that impulse has been ineffective or even backfired. Instead, party-strengthening and pro-multiparty reforms like PR are gaining steam. I sat down with @leedrutman.bsky.social to talk about why.theunpopulist.netFixing America's Negative Polarization With Proportional Representation: A Conversation With Lee DrutmanPresidentialism plus single-member districts is a bad combination that incentivizes leaders to consolidate power by fueling division. 15618
Reposted by Florian GawehnsJohn Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 06/07/2026American democracy stands out internationally in several ways, from a constitution that's unusually hard to amend to a capital city without voting representation in the national legislature. New from @pewresearch.org: 8 ways that US-style democracy stands out globally.pewresearch.org8 ways that U.S.-style democracy stands out globallyAs the U.S. celebrates the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence this year, here are eight ways its political system stands apart from the world's other 105 democracies. 064
Reposted by Florian GawehnsKai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 22/06/2026#ThrowBackPaper: Everyone and their dog believe that 'geography' matters for the Radical Right. But how? We identify 4 aspects of space and how they matter for the Radical Right. 🌍🔍 Click, it's open access 👉 #GeographyMatters #FarRight #Research #OpenAccess 📚cambridge.org‘Place’ does matter for populist radical right sentiment, but how? Evidence from Germany | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core‘Place’ does matter for populist radical right sentiment, but how? Evidence from Germany - Volume 16 Issue 2 196
Reposted by Florian GawehnsDavid Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 17/06/2026Doubtful. Politicians' bias is to believe candidates and machinations matter a lot. But incumbent parties everywhere were losing from 2022-2025 due to inflation. A primary would have strengthened the nominee? Does HRC think she was helped by the Sanders campaign? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...theguardian.comHillary Clinton says Biden’s re-election bid cost Democrats the 2024 electionFormer secretary of state says the winner of a genuine Democratic primary ‘would have beaten Donald Trump’ 65412
Reposted by Florian GawehnsLee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 11/06/2026I regret to inform you all that "open the primaries to independents" is an inadequate solution to restoring sanity to Washington. leedrutman.substack.com/p/open-the-p...leedrutman.substack.com“Open the primaries” is the wrong answer to the right questionWhy isn't November the election that matters? Single-member districts are the problem. Primary reform doesn't fix that. 1248
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 15/05/2026"...findings indicate that Americans place a premium on political moderation in the House of Representatives, even as they may favor reforms that increase viewpoint diversity—particularly through a limited expansion of the party system." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...cambridge.orgAttitudes Toward Electoral System Reform and Party System Change in the U.S. | American Political Science Review | Cambridge CoreAttitudes Toward Electoral System Reform and Party System Change in the U.S. 000
Reposted by Florian GawehnsSara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 08/05/2026British politics is resembling the rest of Europe: • Multi-party competition has replaced two-party dominance • Challengers are on the rise, esp. the populist right • Political realignment centres on identity politics (incl Brexit) But FPTP is poorly suited to this fragmentation 1022355
Reposted by Florian GawehnsE.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 02/05/2026Fascinating figure from @natesilver.skystack.xyz. 2026 Democratic Senate candidates way younger than 2018. 132
Reposted by Florian GawehnsMatt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/04/2026Drivers of Congressional Behavior: Analyzing Members, Constituents, and Committees With CongressData doi.org/10.1177/1532... Our new article is now available online.doi.orgSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher. 022
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 30/03/2026A single chamber of Congress may sue the executive branch: "Ignoring a statutory limitation on appropriations thus nullifies each chamber’s vote, “caus[ing] a concrete and particularized constitutional injury that [each chamber] experiences, and can seek redress for, independently." 000
Reposted by Florian GawehnsPew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 25/03/2026Ahead of the United States’ 250th birthday, we identified some prominent trends across key areas of American life: demographics, work, family and economics. Find the full analysis here:pewresearch.orgHow the U.S. Has Changed in the Past 50 Years | Pew Research CenterAs America turns 250, explore how demographics, work, family and economics have shifted since 1976, based on 50 years of Census data. 01510
Reposted by Florian GawehnsChris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11/03/2026PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...planscore.orgPlanScorePlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al... 275
Reposted by Florian GawehnsJulius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 08/03/2026Despite the extensive discourse about the supposed end of manufacturing in Germany’s industrial heartland, the shift toward the AfD among workers remains rather moderate. The vote share in this occupational segment is roughly at the level of 2016. 2255
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 08/03/2026I coded House Democrats' public statements on 2/28. Few referenced affordability explicitly (things like "health care" "groceries" etc.) or implicitly ("cost us billions" - but not counting "costly war"). Almost everyone referenced congressional authorization. Might change over time. 000
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 05/03/2026CQ finds that 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history their roll-call analysis. 85.3% of roll call votes were party unity votes - 70% in the House and 93% in the Senate. Previous record (2-chamber average) was 74.6 percent in 2023. plus.cq.com/doc/news-841...plus.cq.comCQ NEWS Vote studies: 2025 sets new mark for partisanship on Capitol HillWith President Donald Trump back in the White House and his party controlling the House and Senate, 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history of our study in terms of floor votes, an... 020
Reposted by Florian GawehnsAndrew Lautz @andrewlautz.bsky.social · 20/02/2026Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs? We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5 And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :) 26728
Reposted by Florian GawehnsKevin R. Kosar @kevinrkosar.bsky.social · 16/02/2026President's Day reading recommendation: C.W. Goodyear's President Garfield. What a wunderkind Garfield was. A man born to very modest means in Ohio who got an education and rose and rose through hard work and decency. amzn.to/3MsPanC 021
Reposted by Florian GawehnsGregory Koger @gregorykoger.bsky.social · 11/02/2026This is a common pattern over time. Minority party unity is usually lower than the majority party's, because a) they do not control the agenda, and b) their votes often do not determine the outcome, so they have more latitude to vote with their electoral interests. 051
Reposted by Florian GawehnsVoteHub @votehub.com · 04/02/2026🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨 Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive. @tsyang27 shows who followed and who defied. In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵 262
Reposted by Florian GawehnsMatthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026Offering some play-by-play on yesterday‘s unusually long rule vote in the house. My latest on @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...open.substack.comAnatomy of a voteWatching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat. 011
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 31/01/2026Strong correlation between state partisan lean and how often Democratic senators vote with Trump. Still, considerable variation between (e.g., GA vs. NV) and within (MN, DE, MD) Senate delegations. 000
Reposted by Florian GawehnsJosh Huder @joshhuder.bsky.social · 23/01/2026Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...open.substack.comThe Struggles of Speaker JohnsonMike Johnson's narrow majority isn't his only problem. 051
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 20/01/2026The U.S. Senate infamously operates with a 3/5 threshold to cut off debate. 31 states have no supermajority threshold whatsoever. Seven states have one in both chambers. Data: Curry/Oldham 2025. 000
Reposted by Florian GawehnsSenate Press Gallery @senatepress.bsky.social · 08/01/2026By a vote of 52-47, the #Senate agreed to the motion to discharge S.J. Res. 98 War Powers Resolution (Venezuela). GOP senators voting in favor: Collins, Hawley, Murkowski, Paul, and Young. Senators Daines did not vote. 715568
Reposted by Florian GawehnsChris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us 15723
Reposted by Florian GawehnsLindsey Cormack @dcinbox.bsky.social · 03/01/2026Official congressional e-newsletters mentioning "Venezuela" over time, by party 051
Reposted by Florian GawehnsMatthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 24/12/2025My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others. 0196
Reposted by Florian GawehnsDaniel Schuman @americalabs.org · 22/12/2025As leadership loses control of the narrative and majority members become increasingly afraid of a wipe-out at the polls due to negative ratings and redistricting, the incentives of the rank-and-file will be to assert their independence. firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...firstbranchforecast.substack.comA Fracturing Majority, a More Fluid HouseDischarge petitions, factional alliances, and stormy political waters are prompting some members to consider a different course 0147
Reposted by Florian GawehnsSarah Binder @sarahbinder.bsky.social · 17/12/2025Discharge rule continues campaign for 2025 MVP award🏆! Coalition to extend ACA support hits 218 signatures, matching record 4 "entered" discharge petitions set 90 years ago (1937-8). Speakers today may have peak agenda power, but that's no match for angry 218 (and an organized minority). 22813
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 06/12/2025Ideological variation within Senate delegations is much greater among Republicans. Nokken-Poole scores for the 118th and 119th Congress show that 18 out of 20 most ideologically diverse same-party Senate delegations are Rs. Top 3 is Lee-Romney, McConnell-Paul, Young-Braun. 010
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 24/11/2025The 119 members who co-sponsored Rep. Fitzpatrick's bipartisan Russia sanctions bill are more moderate, more likely to be on Foreign Affairs, and from more competitive districts. BUT the ideological cleavage is much stronger on the Republican side! 010
Reposted by Florian GawehnsAndy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 24/11/2025The DNC / state parties would have to decide how to handle the results for delegate allocation purposes, but the party itself can't switch state-run primaries to RCV. That would require passing new state laws, or else the party disregarding the primary in favor of some private thing like caucuses. 28118
Reposted by Florian GawehnsNPR @npr.org · 15/11/2025Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. n.pr/4p5VEpYn.prThe deal to end the shutdown exposed rifts among Democrats. Just ask MaineMaine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. 1015817
Reposted by Florian GawehnsGregory Koger @gregorykoger.bsky.social · 13/11/2025On passage of the CR in the House: All Republicans "aye" except (voting nay): Thomas Massie (KY) Gregory Steube (FL) All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye) Henry Cuellar (TX) Donald Davis (NC) Jared Golden (ME) Adam Gray (CA) Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA) Thomas Suozzi (NY) 032
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 12/11/2025Will be watching how many Dems vote yes, and how many Rs vote no. Of the ten members of the Blue Dog Coalition, only Rep. Mike Thompson came out against the deal so far. 010
Reposted by Florian GawehnsReconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 10/11/2025so currently defectors are: Kaine (2030) Shaheen (Retiring) Hasan (2028) Fetterman (2028) Durbin (Retiring) CCM (2028) Rosen (2030) King (2030) 31934356
Reposted by Florian GawehnsDaniel Schuman @americalabs.org · 10/11/2025I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against. 0212
Reposted by Florian GawehnsDaniel Schuman @americalabs.org · 10/11/2025What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron. Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.firstbranchforecast.substack.comWhat's in the CR Deal for Congress?With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers 01513
Reposted by Florian GawehnsLee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 07/11/2025"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them." leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...leedrutman.substack.comPolitics Keeps Driving Out the People Who Want to Reform ItJared Golden is the latest problem-solving politician to decide Congress isn’t worth the cost. And so the doom loop takes another turn. 6195
Reposted by Florian GawehnsSteven L. Taylor @sltaylor.bsky.social · 28/10/2025More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions. Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s... 184
Reposted by Florian GawehnsRachel Porter @rachelporter.bsky.social · 27/10/2025I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things? Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc.... campaignview.org www.nature.com/articles/s41... 68625
Reposted by Florian GawehnsBritish Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 13/10/2025#OpenAccess from August 2025 - Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z - @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social #Jan6 022
Reposted by Florian GawehnsKevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 03/10/2025New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal... 13116
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 08/09/2025For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition. 000
Reposted by Florian Gawehnsmellissameisels.bsky.social @mellissameisels.bsky.social · 06/09/2025Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵 @thejop.bsky.social Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP... 34817
Reposted by Florian GawehnsPS: Political Science & Politics @pspolisci.bsky.social · 12/08/2025We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications... 042
Reposted by Florian GawehnsDaniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 13/08/2025Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2 Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 1227
Reposted by Florian GawehnsChris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 13/08/2025Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO. 2197
Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 12/08/2025Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic. 000