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Florian Gawehns

@fgawehns.bsky.social
155 followers 192 following 123 posts

2025/26 APSA Congressional Fellow. PhD @ University of Maryland 2025. Researching Congress and foreign policy.

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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Electoral reform in the US has often pursued an anti-party route, but there's a growing critique of how that impulse has been ineffective or even backfired. Instead, party-strengthening and pro-multiparty reforms like PR are gaining steam. I sat down with @leedrutman.bsky.social to talk about why.
theunpopulist.net
Fixing America's Negative Polarization With Proportional Representation: A Conversation With Lee Drutman
Presidentialism plus single-member districts is a bad combination that incentivizes leaders to consolidate power by fueling division.
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
American democracy stands out internationally in several ways, from a constitution that's unusually hard to amend to a capital city without voting representation in the national legislature. New from @pewresearch.org: 8 ways that US-style democracy stands out globally.
pewresearch.org
8 ways that U.S.-style democracy stands out globally
As the U.S. celebrates the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence this year, here are eight ways its political system stands apart from the world's other 105 democracies.
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 22/06/2026
#ThrowBackPaper: Everyone and their dog believe that 'geography' matters for the Radical Right. But how? We identify 4 aspects of space and how they matter for the Radical Right. 🌍🔍 Click, it's open access 👉 #GeographyMatters #FarRight #Research #OpenAccess 📚
cambridge.org
‘Place’ does matter for populist radical right sentiment, but how? Evidence from Germany | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
‘Place’ does matter for populist radical right sentiment, but how? Evidence from Germany - Volume 16 Issue 2
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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Doubtful. Politicians' bias is to believe candidates and machinations matter a lot. But incumbent parties everywhere were losing from 2022-2025 due to inflation. A primary would have strengthened the nominee? Does HRC think she was helped by the Sanders campaign? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
Hillary Clinton says Biden’s re-election bid cost Democrats the 2024 election
Former secretary of state says the winner of a genuine Democratic primary ‘would have beaten Donald Trump’
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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
I regret to inform you all that "open the primaries to independents" is an inadequate solution to restoring sanity to Washington. leedrutman.substack.com/p/open-the-p...
leedrutman.substack.com
“Open the primaries” is the wrong answer to the right question
Why isn't November the election that matters? Single-member districts are the problem. Primary reform doesn't fix that.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
"...findings indicate that Americans place a premium on political moderation in the House of Representatives, even as they may favor reforms that increase viewpoint diversity—particularly through a limited expansion of the party system." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Attitudes Toward Electoral System Reform and Party System Change in the U.S. | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Attitudes Toward Electoral System Reform and Party System Change in the U.S.
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
British politics is resembling the rest of Europe: • Multi-party competition has replaced two-party dominance • Challengers are on the rise, esp. the populist right • Political realignment centres on identity politics (incl Brexit) But FPTP is poorly suited to this fragmentation
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 02/05/2026
Fascinating figure from @natesilver.skystack.xyz. 2026 Democratic Senate candidates way younger than 2018.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Drivers of Congressional Behavior: Analyzing Members, Constituents, and Committees With CongressData doi.org/10.1177/1532... Our new article is now available online.
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
A single chamber of Congress may sue the executive branch: "Ignoring a statutory limitation on appropriations thus nullifies each chamber’s vote, “caus[ing] a concrete and particularized constitutional injury that [each chamber] experiences, and can seek redress for, independently."
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Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 25/03/2026
Ahead of the United States’ 250th birthday, we identified some prominent trends across key areas of American life: demographics, work, family and economics. Find the full analysis here:
pewresearch.org
How the U.S. Has Changed in the Past 50 Years | Pew Research Center
As America turns 250, explore how demographics, work, family and economics have shifted since 1976, based on 50 years of Census data.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...
planscore.org
PlanScore
PlanScore is a first-of-its-kind gerrymandering scoring service for new district plans, allowing users to upload maps and instantly receive projected data about their partisan consequences. You can al...
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Despite the extensive discourse about the supposed end of manufacturing in Germany’s industrial heartland, the shift toward the AfD among workers remains rather moderate. The vote share in this occupational segment is roughly at the level of 2016.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
I coded House Democrats' public statements on 2/28. Few referenced affordability explicitly (things like "health care" "groceries" etc.) or implicitly ("cost us billions" - but not counting "costly war"). Almost everyone referenced congressional authorization. Might change over time.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
CQ finds that 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history their roll-call analysis. 85.3% of roll call votes were party unity votes - 70% in the House and 93% in the Senate. Previous record (2-chamber average) was 74.6 percent in 2023. plus.cq.com/doc/news-841...
plus.cq.com
CQ NEWS Vote studies: 2025 sets new mark for partisanship on Capitol Hill
With President Donald Trump back in the White House and his party controlling the House and Senate, 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history of our study in terms of floor votes, an...
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Andrew Lautz @andrewlautz.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs? We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5 And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)
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Kevin R. Kosar @kevinrkosar.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
President's Day reading recommendation: C.W. Goodyear's President Garfield. What a wunderkind Garfield was. A man born to very modest means in Ohio who got an education and rose and rose through hard work and decency. amzn.to/3MsPanC
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Gregory Koger @gregorykoger.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
This is a common pattern over time. Minority party unity is usually lower than the majority party's, because a) they do not control the agenda, and b) their votes often do not determine the outcome, so they have more latitude to vote with their electoral interests.
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VoteHub @votehub.com · 04/02/2026
🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨 Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive. @tsyang27 shows who followed and who defied. In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Offering some play-by-play on yesterday‘s unusually long rule vote in the house. My latest on @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Anatomy of a vote
Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Strong correlation between state partisan lean and how often Democratic senators vote with Trump. Still, considerable variation between (e.g., GA vs. NV) and within (MN, DE, MD) Senate delegations.
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Josh Huder @joshhuder.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
open.substack.com
The Struggles of Speaker Johnson
Mike Johnson's narrow majority isn't his only problem.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
The U.S. Senate infamously operates with a 3/5 threshold to cut off debate. 31 states have no supermajority threshold whatsoever. Seven states have one in both chambers. Data: Curry/Oldham 2025.
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Senate Press Gallery @senatepress.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
By a vote of 52-47, the #Senate agreed to the motion to discharge S.J. Res. 98 War Powers Resolution (Venezuela). GOP senators voting in favor: Collins, Hawley, Murkowski, Paul, and Young. Senators Daines did not vote.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us
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Lindsey Cormack @dcinbox.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Official congressional e-newsletters mentioning "Venezuela" over time, by party
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others.
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Daniel Schuman @americalabs.org · 22/12/2025
As leadership loses control of the narrative and majority members become increasingly afraid of a wipe-out at the polls due to negative ratings and redistricting, the incentives of the rank-and-file will be to assert their independence. firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
A Fracturing Majority, a More Fluid House
Discharge petitions, factional alliances, and stormy political waters are prompting some members to consider a different course
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Sarah Binder @sarahbinder.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Discharge rule continues campaign for 2025 MVP award🏆! Coalition to extend ACA support hits 218 signatures, matching record 4 "entered" discharge petitions set 90 years ago (1937-8). Speakers today may have peak agenda power, but that's no match for angry 218 (and an organized minority).
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Ideological variation within Senate delegations is much greater among Republicans. Nokken-Poole scores for the 118th and 119th Congress show that 18 out of 20 most ideologically diverse same-party Senate delegations are Rs. Top 3 is Lee-Romney, McConnell-Paul, Young-Braun.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
The 119 members who co-sponsored Rep. Fitzpatrick's bipartisan Russia sanctions bill are more moderate, more likely to be on Foreign Affairs, and from more competitive districts. BUT the ideological cleavage is much stronger on the Republican side!
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
The DNC / state parties would have to decide how to handle the results for delegate allocation purposes, but the party itself can't switch state-run primaries to RCV. That would require passing new state laws, or else the party disregarding the primary in favor of some private thing like caucuses.
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NPR @npr.org · 15/11/2025
Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. n.pr/4p5VEpY
n.pr
The deal to end the shutdown exposed rifts among Democrats. Just ask Maine
Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue.
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Gregory Koger @gregorykoger.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
On passage of the CR in the House: All Republicans "aye" except (voting nay): Thomas Massie (KY) Gregory Steube (FL) All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye) Henry Cuellar (TX) Donald Davis (NC) Jared Golden (ME) Adam Gray (CA) Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA) Thomas Suozzi (NY)
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Will be watching how many Dems vote yes, and how many Rs vote no. Of the ten members of the Blue Dog Coalition, only Rep. Mike Thompson came out against the deal so far.
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Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
so currently defectors are: Kaine (2030) Shaheen (Retiring) Hasan (2028) Fetterman (2028) Durbin (Retiring) CCM (2028) Rosen (2030) King (2030)
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Daniel Schuman @americalabs.org · 10/11/2025
I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.
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Daniel Schuman @americalabs.org · 10/11/2025
What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron. Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.
firstbranchforecast.substack.com
What's in the CR Deal for Congress?
With a vote as early as tonight, we quickly ran the numbers
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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them." leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...
leedrutman.substack.com
Politics Keeps Driving Out the People Who Want to Reform It
Jared Golden is the latest problem-solving politician to decide Congress isn’t worth the cost. And so the doom loop takes another turn.
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Steven L. Taylor @sltaylor.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions. Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...
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Rachel Porter @rachelporter.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things? Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc.... campaignview.org www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
#OpenAccess from August 2025 - Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z - @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social #Jan6
BJPolS abstract analyzing how financial contributions to legislators from Fortune 500 companies change in response to the policymakers' involvement in election result disputes and accountability violations.
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Kevin Reuning @reuning.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Plot showing perception of voter ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. Republicans are drifting slightly to be more conservative, Democrats are mostly staying in one place. Plot showing messaging ideology of candidates overtime. It is separated by House and Senate. There is increasing separation between parties over time, with Republicans becoming messaging more moderately during the Trump era and then shifting to the right during Biden.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.
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mellissameisels.bsky.social @mellissameisels.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵 @thejop.bsky.social Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...
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PS: Political Science & Politics @pspolisci.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2 Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Chart showing progression of the number of open Republican house seats over the election cycle for the years 2006 to 2026. 2018 and 2020 had the most retirements, and 2026 looks similar so far.
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Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.
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Florian Gawehns @fgawehns.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.
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