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Matt Glassman

@mattglassman312.bsky.social
14K followers 331 following 532 posts

Congressional Procedure Nerd. Dad to three girls. Amazing Oh Hell player.

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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The political dynamics of Congress right now boil down to: narrow majorities, a lack of votes to abolish the filibuster, a POTUS disinterested in protecting vulnerable moderates, partisan polarization, and factions willing to exploit the balance of power. blog.mattglassman.net/congress/
blog.mattglassman.net
Congress!
I’m going to write in much more detail about this over August recess, but in my view people are overthinking the political dynamics of Congress right now. It...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
That quote from Senator Graham making the rounds might be the most important idea you ever internalize about politics. blog.mattglassman.net/that-senator...
blog.mattglassman.net
That Senator Graham Quote
Lindsey Graham has died. Whatever else you might say about him, he's the author of this quote: >“When I was first elected to the House,” he recalled, “I l...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Some not-fully-formed thoughts on Graham Plantner and campign-biography candidates. blog.mattglassman.net/campaign-bio...
blog.mattglassman.net
campaign biography candidates
A lot (probably too much) has been written about Graham Platner's faux working class credentials. Takes galore. Here's some scattered orthogonal thoughts. ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Some thoughts on the various dimensions of political moderation, and the role of moderates in our increasingly radical public politics. blog.mattglassman.net/what-is-a-mo...
blog.mattglassman.net
What is a moderate?
Back in November, I wrote a substack post describing various dimension of political moderation. You can go read the longer details, but here’s the abridged l...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A lot of people asked me some version of "what do I think about Maine" so I wrote up my quick thoughts. blog.mattglassman.net/platner/
blog.mattglassman.net
Platner
People keeping asking me variations of "what do you think about what is going on in Maine" and so I'm just going to write it down. I never liked Platner as ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
A speculative theory: politics is making people increasingly miserable because typical political participation is now more *national*, more *electoral*, and more *passive* than it used to be, all of which have worse happiness returns-on-investment. blog.mattglassman.net/speculative-...
blog.mattglassman.net
Speculative theory of political participation and happiness
A speculative theory: Current politics is making people increasingly miserable because at a participatory level it has become for many people, on the margin...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The World Series of Poker Main Event starts today. There’s little you can do that’s more hedonistic and euphoric than lighting ten grand on fire for a seat in a poker tournament. blog.mattglassman.net/the-wsop-mai...
blog.mattglassman.net
The WSOP main event
The World Series of Poker Main Event begins today. The Main Event is unquestionably the focal point of the entire World Series of Poker, which now consists...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I just spent a week in London. Initial reactions. blog.mattglassman.net/initial-lond...
blog.mattglassman.net
London
I just spent a week in London, my first time there and my first time to Europe. Thank you to the 50+ people who provided advice, so much of it was valuable a...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
I am in Oxford (wow) and among other things, I think I now understand Yale a lot better.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
I'm going to London next week! What should I do? blog.mattglassman.net/london-calli...
blog.mattglassman.net
London Calling: travel belg
<p style="text-align: center;"> <img src="https://bear-images.sfo2.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/mattsonepoint/screenshot-2026-06-19-134239.webp" style="width:...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Senator Tillis called Congress a "board of directors" yesterday, and I have long thought that's the best way to think about the legislature in our separation of power system. blog.mattglassman.net/congress-as-...
blog.mattglassman.net
Congress as board of directors
Here's Senator Tillis yesterday, discussing the frayed Senate-administration relations amid the endless blindsiding Hill Republicans are getting from the Whi...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Well, for the first time in my life I was just handed a literal brown paper bag full of cash at a political meeting. Check that off the bucket list.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
One thing legislators hate is getting blindsided. And boy is the White House blindsiding congressional Republicans a lot lately. blog.mattglassman.net/pro-tip-dont...
blog.mattglassman.net
Pro-tip: don’t blindside legislators
If we had to come up with a list of generic things legislators hate, getting blindsided by important new information would probably be right near the top. So...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Whether you have a bidding disaster in bridge, make a stupid pre-flop decision in a poker tournament, or start a dumb war, you still want to make optimal decisions down the wrong branches of the tree. And you should evaluate those decisions accordingly. blog.mattglassman.net/wrong-branch...
blog.mattglassman.net
wrong branch, right move
One axiom of good cardplay is this: every decision is a new opportunity to make the optimal play. No matter how bad your previous decisions were and how bad ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
In sports, just like in government, street-level bureaucrats have a big influence over policy implementation. That was on full display in the NBA Finals, as the refs struggled to deal with Wemby's accumulated flagrant foul points. blog.mattglassman.net/nba-refs-and...
blog.mattglassman.net
NBA refs and the legislative problem of street-level bureaucrats
In Congress, and in government generally, one basic problem is enforcement of law. Although sometimes people on the Hill act like you solve a problem as soon...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Thirty-two years ago tonight. June 14, 1994. The happiest I ever saw my dad. blog.mattglassman.net/june-14-1994/
blog.mattglassman.net
June 14, 1994
Thirty-two years ago tonight. <p style="text-align: center;"> <img src="https://bear-images.sfo2.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/mattsonepoint/screenshot-202...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
I wrote up my soccer hot take---that soccer is totally awesome even though the game itself isn't that great---and I look forward to getting absolutely blasted for it by literally everyone. fivepoints.mattglassman.net/p/soccer-is-...
fivepoints.mattglassman.net
Soccer is truly spectacular, in spite of itself
The world's greatest sport isn't that great of a sport
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Some sports-related thoughts after last night's legendary game in New York. blog.mattglassman.net/eleven-thoug...
blog.mattglassman.net
Eleven Thoughts After that Knicks Game
The New York Knicks took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals last night by completing the greatest comeback in playoff history. Just an incredible game, and so much...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Fair County Public Schools has a calendar problem—it’s bloated with too many days off from learning. They are trying to address it. But the survey they put out to get public opinion is not great. Some cranky blogging: blog.mattglassman.net/a-bad-survey...
blog.mattglassman.net
A bad survey from FCPS
Fairfax County Public Schools have a calendar problem. We’ve bloated up the school year with holidays, extended breaks, teacher work days, elementary school ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
As stupid as it sounds, the only time I am guaranteed to truly miss my dad is when there's a huge sporting event in NY. God, I wish he could see what is happening at MSG right now.
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Reposted by Matt Glassman
Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
This is a great conversation, and @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social makes great use of the NYT megaphone to get some very clear, succinct and important points across. Well done.
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump Is Getting Worse at His Job
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
I am trying and failing to write how I feel about Platner and the dumb politics that produced him and I keep wishing my Dad was here he'd be like "this is what you get when X and Y and of course you get Z." I don't know X, Y, and Z but I know Dad could nail this in 20 words.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
We are quickly descending down a strategic vote rabbit hole in the Senate.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
How to understand Cassidy vote on Schumer MTC: vulnerable '26 Rs (Sullivan, Husted) are "vote yes, hope no," but that makes result Yes. Cassidy cares more about their future than his vote. So he votes No to flip outcome to No.. He may hate Trump, but he cares about Senate GOP.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Nobody wants to hear it, but what we're seeing in the Senate right now is good. Open amendment process and price discovery via motion is the way back to functioning deliberation and productive compromise.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
The Steven Spielberg appearance on The Rewatchables to discuss 2001: A Space Odyssey was just great. blog.mattglassman.net/steven-speil...
blog.mattglassman.net
Steven Spielberg does 2001: A Space Odyssey on The Rewatchables
Just an incredible podcast/video episode. The Rewatchables is a great podcast to begin with. Great idea, great execution. Especially if you grew up in the G...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Just fix the fucking Vacancy Act already. The Pulte appointment is a nice opportunity for a renewed push. blog.mattglassman.net/fix-the-vaca...
blog.mattglassman.net
Just Fix the Fucking Vacancy Act Already
Bill Pulte, Senate-confirmed Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Chairman of Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac, has been appointed by President Trump a...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Some quick thoughts on the disconnect between how much power Trump has over the GOP and how little of that power he's able to translate into policy outcomes on the Hill. blog.mattglassman.net/president-tr...
blog.mattglassman.net
President Trump, all-powerful loser
The most inexplicable thing about president Trump is how much political control he has over the Republican Party, and how poorly he has used that leverage fo...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Right now I wish we had the old 90s monoculture back. America 250, the World Cup, the Artemis mission. All really cool things, and all feel underwhelming to me and decidedly not easy to connect with random people about in casual conversation. blog.mattglassman.net/rip-monocult...
blog.mattglassman.net
monoculture
Many social critics, notably Chuck Klosterman, have written a lot about the disappearance of the 20th century monoculture). The basic thesis is simple: i...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The World Series of Poker starts today. I've always been a poker romantic, and the game continues to be one of the truly American inventions. open.substack.com/pub/mattglas...
open.substack.com
The World Series of Poker Starts Today
Here are fifteen updated thoughts on America's greatest gambling invention
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Reposted by Matt Glassman
Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
I agree with all of this except the first sentence. Trump has never been good at getting GOP legislators to do what he wants. It may not look that way because many observers think he *deserves* far more pushback than he's gotten from them. (I agree!) But ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
My family never talked about our relative who died in WWII---I didn't even know until I was an adult---and it very much colors how I think about Memorial Day now. blog.mattglassman.net/the-structur...
blog.mattglassman.net
The structural anguish of Memorial Day
Screenshot 2026-05-25 102045 Today is Memorial Day. For most Americans, it's the kickoff to summer. For a subset of Americans, it's a marker of the worst th...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Prompted by @marypeltola.com noting she was first person ever to represent Alaska who was born there, I used Claude to run all House history. Turns out 58% of Members/delegates were born in state they represent. State rankings and time series data too: blog.mattglassman.net/how-many-hou...
blog.mattglassman.net
How many House Members were born in the state they represent?
Mary Peltola represented Alaska in the House from August 2022 until January 2025. She also happened to have been born in Alaska. This is notable because she ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
My immediate reaction to the GOP reconciliation meltdown. All the President's Fault. blog.mattglassman.net/immediate-re...
blog.mattglassman.net
immediate reaction on the GOP reconciliation meltdown
Coming into the week, Republicans had intended to move the reconciliation bill containing the multi-year funding for CBP and ICE through both chambers. They ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Notes on Paxton/Cornyn and the long list of GOP Senate primary disasters in the last two decades. blog.mattglassman.net/notes-on-pax...
blog.mattglassman.net
Paxton / Cornyn, another GOP primary disaster?
President Trump endorsed Ken Paxton in his Texas Republican Senate primary yesterday against incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Already an underdog, Cornyn's cha...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Martin Van Buren was born in the United States and was never a British subject. But was he a *natural-born* citizen, or just eligible for the presidency under the grandfather clause? blog.mattglassman.net/martin-van-b...
blog.mattglassman.net
Martin van Buren was born in the United States, but was he a natural-born citizen of the United States?
I was thinking about Van Buren yesterday because he's the answer to my favorite piece of presidential trivia—which president's first language wasn't English?...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Sentences to ponder, from two of my current favorite bloggers, Zac Hill and @natemeyvis.bsky.social: blog.mattglassman.net/sentences-to...
blog.mattglassman.net
sentences to ponder about tokenmaxxing from Zac Hill and Nate Meyvis
Here's Zac Hill's excellent new substack, Manual Transmission, and here's Nate Meyvis' Bear blog. These are two of my favorite writers on the internet right ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Of course Courts are political actors. That's not a bad thing! blog.mattglassman.net/of-course-co...
blog.mattglassman.net
Of course judges are political actors, that's not a bad thing
Every time there's a controversial judicial decision, we get an outpouring of aggrieved commentators declaring that the decision was political and therefore ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
You can learn a lot from very little information, and most people don't employ conditional probability strongly enough. blog.mattglassman.net/a-little-inf...
blog.mattglassman.net
a little information often tells you a lot
A lot of people demand way too much evidence for things before they will adjust their views. Some of this is related to a desire for certainty, rather than a...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
People underestimate how good professional athletes are. You have zero chance of homering off Paul Skenes. But who should take that viral bet, at 2000-1 odds? blog.mattglassman.net/no-you-cant-...
blog.mattglassman.net
No, you can't homer off Paul Skenes. But who should take this bet?
There's a genre of clickbait social media posts all about comparisons of elite professional athletes and YMCA recreational players. A lot of the time, the un...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Partisan political actors are articulating---and playing out-- a lot of unusually-clear game theory right now---on gerrymandering, on court packing, and on filibuster-nuking. Stag Hunts everywhere you look! blog.mattglassman.net/partisan-sta...
blog.mattglassman.net
Partisan stag hunts, everywhere
I'm seeing a lot of political actors and commentators advocating for hardball strategies right now, while lamenting that what they are advocating for isn't i...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Notes on political influence blog.mattglassman.net/notes-on-inf...
blog.mattglassman.net
Notes on influencing politics
I had a meeting with a local elected official today, which I had requested to discuss a specific issue. We got chitchatting about some other, unrelated local...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Some notes on the idea of paying California Dems to move to Wyoming in order to change its politics. blog.mattglassman.net/voting-with-...
blog.mattglassman.net
Vote with your feet, or someone else’s
Relocating to a new legal jurisdictions to alter the government policies that affect you is extremely common behavior. People flee high tax areas. Parents mo...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
I like markets. But reading about the Harberger tax finally crystalized for me the angst so many people seem to be feeling in the increasingly markets-all-around-us world. blog.mattglassman.net/markets-in-e...
blog.mattglassman.net
Markets in everything?
I like markets. Properly implemented and regulatged, I think they are generally the best fundamental arrangement of society, in both private and public, ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Notes having three kids, all with birthdays the same week: blog.mattglassman.net/notes-on-hav...
blog.mattglassman.net
Notes on having three kids, all with birthdays the same week
My middle daughter's birthday is today, May 2. My youngest daughter was born on April 30. And my oldest daughter was born on April 27. Some thoughts: The...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Piggybacking on an excellent @leedrutman post, I'm all in favor of undoing the Uniform District Act and seeing if federalism can get some proportional representation going somewhere in the U.S. blog.mattglassman.net/gerrymanderi...
blog.mattglassman.net
Gerrymandering, VRA, Partisanship, and Federalism
You may have heard that we are in a very partisan age. You may have also heard that there's a mid-decade gerrymandering race to the bottom. And you may have ...
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Churchill, Pimlico, Saratoga
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
I'm very skeptical that increasing the size of the House would be a good thing. blog.mattglassman.net/against-a-bi...
blog.mattglassman.net
A Bigger House? Not a Fan
Many people, understandably frustrated with Congress, think a way to improve the place would be to increase the size of the House. Here's Chuck Todd arguing ...
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Reposted by Matt Glassman
Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
I'm using this from now on anytime we go to the blue screen of death:
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Speaking with my nephew (he's four) it just dawned on me this sentence must sound like it belongs in Alice in Wonderland or maybe Dr. Seuss to any normal person.
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