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Matthew Green

@mattngreen.bsky.social
1.6K followers 254 following 180 posts

Political scientist at Catholic University. Congress, federalism, elections, state (legislative) politics. Contributor to Mischiefs of Faction newsletter: substack.com/@misofact

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Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Yang Zhang and Xintong Chen’s “Beyond a Linear Relationship: Revisiting Minority Representation Hypotheses with a Semiparametric Approach” explores how changes in minority population size relate to substantive representation in the U.S. House. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Beyond a Linear Relationship: Revisiting Minority Representation Hypotheses with a Semiparametric Approach
Standard methods often overlook non-linear complexities in the relationship between minority population size and substantive representation. To address this, we introduce spline regression and shap...
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Following up from my post yesterday, @wrigleyfield.bsky.social asked whether the Wyoming Freedom Caucus’ primary losses were Caucus specific or were part of a general anti-incumbency trend. 1/4
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
This is big news, given that the Wyoming House Freedom Caucus had been - up to this point - one of the largest and most influential of state FCs in the country: cowboystatedaily.com/2026/08/19/n...
cowboystatedaily.com
Near-Total Massacre For Freedom Caucus In Wyoming Primary
Tuesday marked a rough night for the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, as its members and allies fell to a slew of legislative newcomers in the Republican primary…
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Fully *a fifth* of Wyoming house incumbents (13 / 62) lost their primaries in a big backlash against the hard right caucus. Even more as a share of incumbents running (45). I don't have hard numbers for comparison, but that's got to be pretty far up there for any state chamber, historically.
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Adam M. McMahon's article, "Foreign Policy Scandal, Presidential Impeachment, and Unitary Executive Theory," explores the constitutional and political implications of executive power during times of crisis. Read the article here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Election forecasts ask what share of the electorate will vote in November. They rarely ask who is still in the pool by Election Day. A new guest post at Mischiefs of Faction from Jiyue Wang. misofact.substack.com/p/the-2026-m...
misofact.substack.com
The 2026 midterms have a missing-electorate problem
Before asking who will show up in November, ask who is still in the pool
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Wow. Writing about John Leganski's book about Speaker McCarthy, @mattngreen.bsky.social unknowingly validates my forthcoming book on political capital, saying getting elected Speaker means focusing “almost exclusively on “member-to-member connection(s).” 🎯 misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-hag...
misofact.substack.com
How to Haggle your Way to the Speakership
John Leganski’s account of his time working for Congressman Kevin McCarthy sheds some light on why the House GOP has become so difficult to lead.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I finally went to the Great American State Fair on the Mall (on Friday, the last day). My impressions: 1/x
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Nice explainer from @mattngreen.bsky.social at @misofact.bsky.social on some weird behavior by House Republicans. Also, the quote of the week from Rep. Bacon (R-NE). open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Bicameralism is a Drag
The eternal frustration of trying to get the other chamber to do what you want.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Bicameralism has long frustrated lawmakers. House Republicans who torpedoed their party's agenda this week are just the latest. A new post from @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/bicamerali...
misofact.substack.com
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Reposted by Matthew Green
Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
We're proud to see research published in Congress & the Presidency featured in a recent NYT opinion essay on congressional polarization. The piece cites Gary Jacobson's influential work on how polarization among political elites and voters can become "interactive and mutually reinforcing."
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Ryan Bookstein and Kristina C. Miler investigate patterns of party defection in Senate confirmations of executive nominees, offering new insights into legislative behavior and executive-legislative relations. Take a look here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Party Defection in Senate Confirmations of Executive Nominees
Legislative-executive relations are generally portrayed as partisan and combative. The conventional wisdom is that Senate confirmation votes follow party lines, but the reality is different. Based ...
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Reposted by Matthew Green
Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
@mattngreen.bsky.social writes about the rules of political power that Trump did, and did not, follow last week. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
How to (Not) Maintain Political Power
The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The rules of political power that Trump did (not) follow last week -- plus a chance to mention the curious end-career of Rep. Matt Martinez (D/R - CA). My latest at @misofact.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-not...
misofact.substack.com
How to (Not) Maintain Political Power
The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Just released: The first 2026 issue of Congress & Presidency This issue dives into the biggest questions in American governance today - including presidential authority, congressional power, executive privilege, and institutional accountability. Explore it here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/uctp20/c...
tandfonline.com
Congress & the Presidency
Volume 53, Issue 1 of Congress & the Presidency
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
RIP Barney Frank. In addition to his caustic wit and legislative acumen, he was a master of procedural rules - which proved extremely helpful to House Dems when they became a minority in 1995 for the 1st time in 40 years. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/u...
nytimes.com
Barney Frank, Gay Pioneer and Liberal Stalwart in Congress, Dies at 86
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
There's been lots of proposals offered lately to restore some balance between the branches. For those trying to keep track, @mattngreen.bsky.social has a running list. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Restoring Balance to our Constitutional System
A running list of reforms.
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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
HOUSE FLOOR UPDATE The chamber is paralyzed again. A "rule" backed by Republican leaders would tee up bills to extend FISA Sec 702 (expires tmrw), reopen DHS (shut down for 74 days) and set farm policy. Currently on track to fail due to GOP defections. Vote open for >85 mins.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
RIP Sen. Don Riegle (D-MI), author of one of the strangest congressional memoirs I've ever read. Even the title is odd.
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Reflections from a political science conference--I expected a lot of chatter about US democratic failures, but there was a lot more consternation about A.I. in the academy. misofact.substack.com/p/the-most-t...
misofact.substack.com
The most-talked-about topic at a national political science conference was not what I expected
Amidst an overwhelming decline in democratic institutions over the past year, political science professors are talking more about AI than the state of affairs in the US.
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
“Lawyers as Lawmakers: Professional Expertise and the Conditional Effectiveness of Attorney-Legislators” by Michael E. Bednarczuk explores how professional legal expertise shapes legislative effectiveness under varying institutional conditions. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Lawyers as Lawmakers: Professional Expertise and the Conditional Effectiveness of Attorney-Legislators
Attorneys have long made up a considerable percentage of Congress. While the reasons for their electoral success are understood, little is known about their impact once elected. Using a novel appli...
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
RIP Eliot Engel. I still remember seeing him at a DC reception featuring MLB players signing baseballs - he was like a little kid, in awe of the players & trying to get signatures from all of them. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/n...
nytimes.com
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
If folks are interested, I've just posted an updated draft of The Chadha Presidency, with revisions accounting for the Supreme Court tariffs case, Iran WPR resolutions of disapproval, and more. ssrn.com/abstract=536...
ssrn.com
The <i>Chadha </i>Presidency
<p><span>Where is Congress? Why hasn’t it reined in some of the worst abuses of the Trump Administration? This Article argues that a significant part of the ans
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Now on our website: a link to last year's winner of the James A. Thurber Article of the Year award. The article, by Dr. Huchen Liu's, is entitled "Interbranch Competition Over Control of Federal Agencies and the Selection of Career Executives." See here: www.american.edu/spa/ccps/jou...
american.edu
Congress and the Presidency: A Journal of Capital Studies
Congress and the Presidency: A Journal of Capital Studies, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, School of Public Affairs, American University, Washington, DC
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Confirming what Rachel Bade writes here -- that it's hard, and very uncommon, for Senate leaders to be ousted by their own party. 1/5 rachaelbade.substack.com/p/the-steep-...
rachaelbade.substack.com
The steep hurdles of the "chuck Chuck" movement.
Progressives are agitating against the Senate minority leader. But ousting Schumer is easier said than done.
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The Congressional Budget Act passed a half-century ago. How has the federal budget process changed since then, and how might it be reformed? Jasmine Farrier discusses the CBA at 50 in our latest issue: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Congressional Budget Act at 50: Institutional Ambition to Abdication
Congress’s landmark budget process reform, post-reform adjustments, and current challenges mark significant developments in the US separation of powers system. Over the last fifty years, Congress h...
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
I just finished this excellent new book by @elizabethelder.bsky.social. She uses both old and new data to show the lasting political and social legacy of coal company domination in Appalachia. Great read! press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...
press.uchicago.edu
Company Towns
Reveals the deep, historical roots of public distrust in former mining areas in the US, shedding new light on the corrosive feedback loops that persist today. In Company Towns, Elizabeth Mitchell Elde...
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Congress & The Presidency @editors-cp.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Our latest issue is now available on-line! Featuring new articles by Mitchel Sollenberger and @markjrozell.bsky.social, Melissa Burgess, Jasmine Farrier, and Michael Bednarczuk, plus new book reviews! www.tandfonline.com/toc/uctp20/c...
tandfonline.com
Congress & the Presidency
Volume 52, Issue 3 of Congress & the Presidency
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
“Presidents employ prerogative power out of weakness rather than strength.” - Richard Pious, The American Presidency (1979) www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/u...
nytimes.com
Justices Strike Down Trump’s Tariffs
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
ICYMI: I'm honored to be joining Jeff Crouch as co-editor of Congress & the Presidency. If you're doing any research on the American legislative and/or executive branches, please consider submitting it to C&P!
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Aaron Fritschner @fritschner.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
This was Mike Johnson's third failed rule vote of the 119th Congress, bringing him closer to tying the modern era record for rule failure in the House. Which is currently held by... Mike Johnson, from the 118th Congress
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
ICYMI: @mattngreen.bsky.social writes about how the close House vote on the special rule to consider a government funding bill went down: misofact.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...
misofact.substack.com
Anatomy of a vote
Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
The rare member who was widely respected as a genuine expert in foreign affairs. When I worked on the Hill, if I ever had a question about a major foreign policy matter, the answer was often "go ask Hamilton's office." rollcall.com/2026/02/04/l...
rollcall.com
Lee Hamilton, Indiana Democrat and vice chair of 9/11 Commission, dies at 94
Former Rep Lee H. Hamilton, an Indiana Democrat who went on to chair the 9/11 Commission, has died at the age of 94.
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Absolutely gripping play-by-play from @mattngreen.bsky.social on @misofact.bsky.social on the nail-biter House vote yesterday. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Anatomy of a vote
Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Offering some play-by-play on yesterday‘s unusually long rule vote in the house. My latest on @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Anatomy of a vote
Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
The "five minute vote" on the rule has been open for 30 minutes and counting.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Excellent piece by @joshhuder.bsky.social on the multiple challenges facing Speaker Johnson.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others.
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Josh Huder @joshhuder.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
My take on why Mike Johnson's speakership is one of the most fraught in recent and not so recent memory. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
The speakership has been a less secure leadership post since the mid-1980s. Johnson is no less safe than his predecessors. My latest at @misofact.bsky.social.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Following up from my September post on shutdown politics - what I got wrong and (I think) right. My latest @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Lessons from the longest shutdown ever
What I got wrong and (arguably) got right
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Josh Huder @joshhuder.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...
open.substack.com
An Entirely too-early Assessment of the Senate Shutdown Deal/Vote
Democrats may have over-performed on policy and underperformed on politics.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
I posted this 15 minutes before Pelosi announced her retirement. I’ll probably have something to say about her speakership later…but for now, here’s some new data about congressional Republicans resisting Trump. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...
open.substack.com
Are Members of Congress Pushing Back against President Trump? Part III
Explaining GOP Resistance
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
When @gregorykoger.bsky.social writes about the filibuster, you should read it. @misofact.bsky.social misofact.substack.com/p/you-love-m...
misofact.substack.com
You love me. You hate me. I'm the Ross & Rachel of Capitol Hill.
The Senate filibuster is adored when parties are in the minority and despised when parties are in the majority. If the filibuster could talk, it wants you to think long and hard before reforming it.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Interesting debate between @mattglassman312.bsky.social and @tompepinsky.com on a strategic shutdown. I come down on Matt’s side, but Tom’s point is well-taken: many Dem voters will be understandably furious if they think D’s aren’t doing enuf vs. Trump.
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
My two cents on the "shutdown or not" debate. 1/x
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Matthew Green @mattngreen.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Recent story in USA Today about how tariffs are harming the domestic board game industry (1/2): www.usatoday.com/story/money/...
usatoday.com
Want a cheap board game night? No dice.
Board game customers can expect higher prices and fewer offerings as publishers grapple with new tariffs on imports from China.
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
In an effort to summarize two weeks of Trump actions in August, which is typically a sleepy time in Washington, @mattngreen.bsky.social creates a helpful typology to identify the political pathologies at work. Now at @misofact.bsky.social misofact.substack.com/p/two-weeks-...
misofact.substack.com
Two weeks in August
Some impressions of domestic politics after taking a hiatus from the news.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Matthew Green took a two-week break from the news. His thoughts on what happened in U.S. politics during that period: misofact.substack.com/p/two-weeks-...
misofact.substack.com
Two weeks in August
Some impressions of domestic politics after taking a hiatus from the news.
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Mischiefs of Faction @misofact.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Wedge issue + scandal = a politically fruitful topic for the minority party. An analysis of the Epstein papers affair by @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/scandals-a...
misofact.substack.com
Scandals and Wedge Issues
Why the Epstein affair has been an ideal topic for Democrats to exploit.
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