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E.J. Fagan

@ejfagan.com
4.7K followers 1.7K following 2.9K posts

Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Illinois Chicago. Author of The Thinkers: The Rise of Partisan Think Tanks and the Polarization of American Politics. Also, baseball.

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Reposted by E.J. Fagan
David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 4h
Maybe not the right analogy to make in a Yankees +9 environment
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 4h
Free policy idea: all major sporting events must be broadcast locally (nationally during the playoffs) over the air.
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 6h
I've obtained new data showing that in 3 House districts in South Texas, big majorities of Latinos are swinging hard against Trump on immigration. This is where the "multiracial working-class realignment" behind Trump restrictionism was said to be happening. 3/ newrepublic.com/article/2160...
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 14h
We may have to name our upcoming daughter Ben Rice. I don't make the rules.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 15h
Second political ad is for next year's mayoral race, Alexi Giannoulias against Flock cameras.
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Passanthallich @passanthalbot.bsky.social · 15h
@JeffPassan tweeted The Red Sox pulled Payton Tolle to give Ben Rice a different look. The look Erik Miller gave him was a middle-middle fastball. t.co/sSB4CjDtc6
x.com
Tweet
@JeffPassan tweeted The Red Sox pulled Payton Tolle to give Ben Rice a different look. The look Erik Miller gave him was a middle-middle fastball. https://t.co/sSB4CjDtc6
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 16h
Schlittler mad. Schlittler throw hard.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 16h
My first political ad of the MLB season (Broadcast NBC Chicago) is just composed of clips of Trump saying that he's on the ballot.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 17h
Pardon me when I flip into nervous wreck mode because baseball decided that a best of three series is a good idea.
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Justin Hendrix @justinhendrix.bsky.social · 20h
United States President Donald Trump issues executive order instructing federal government agencies to "use the terms 'Super Intelligence' and 'SI' in place of 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI' and will not acknowledge the usage of 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI' in any applicable setting."
whitehouse.gov
Inaugurating The Era Of Super Intelligence
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Every child deserves a safe and nurturing home where they ...
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feralhyrax.bsky.social @feralhyrax.bsky.social · 19h
Eagle marriage sounds nice. Live apart, no unwanted contact, fresh caught fish for life. Imagine introducing them at dinner parties... "This is my partner, *high pitched shriek*. Yes...the one perched up on the pergola. We brought the salmon." Great idea from @faineg.com
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 23h
Dems need to win PA by around 9 points to flip its Senate (~D+11 nationally). In that situation, they likely also take the state legislatures of WI, MI, AZ and NV Gov. Dems would have the votes to push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact over the line and eliminate the Electoral College.
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Mary Joy @maryjoy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I am not sure why they are so dark as attachments - they aren't like that on my screen. Ok, turning them into screenshots works.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 29/09/2026
Whoa. Big jump in the @fiftyplusone.news odds of Democrats taking the Senate. The left tails are starting to get fatter too.
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
#earlyvote morning update 9/29: over half a million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳🎉 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Last week I took a look at trends in Gen Z voter registration, finding that since Trump took office last January, Dems have made massive gains with young voters across the country. Now I'll update that analysis with some breakdowns by race/ethnicity.
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Can you tell texas republicans are not used to competitive races bsky.app/profile/head...
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Losers.
Republican Men Are More Likely To Blame Women For Their Problems chart
• Democrat
• Republican
26
24
18 to 29
30 to 49
Source: Civility and Morality Survey, 2025.
50 to 64
65 and older
Survey Center
on American Life
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 28/09/2026
Internal poll way too high undecided yadayada, but this is also a Trump +20 district.
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Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I mean, COME ON.
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 27/09/2026
Let us also remember this social milieu revolving around AI apparently aren’t great at age verification for events, considering a 13 year old claims he was able to get into AI group house parties: bsky.app/profile/fain...
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 27/09/2026
Let’s also remember that this is the same group of organizers in the Silicon Valley AI scene who are also involved with throwing “consensual non-consent” events - IE, simulated rape. Which whistleblowers like Sonia Joseph have cited as creating a “coercive climate” for female AI researchers.
Sonia Joseph
@soniajoseph_
To the journalists contacting me about the AGI consensual non-consensual (cnc)
sex parties-
During my twenties in Silicon Valley, I ran among elite tech/Al circles through the community house scene. I have seen some troubling things around social circles of early OpenAl employees, their friends, and adjacent entrepreneurs, which I have not previously spoken about publicly.
It is not my place to speak as to why Jan Leike and the superalignment team resigned. I have no idea why and cannot make any claims. However, I do believe my cultural observations of the SF Al scene are more broadly relevant to the Al industry.
I don't think events like the consensual non-consensual (cnc) sex parties and heavy LSD use of some elite Al researchers have been good for women. They create a climate that can be very bad for female Al researchers, with broader implications relevant to X-risk and AGI safety. I believe they are somewhat emblematic of broader problems: a coercive climate that normalizes recklessness and crossing boundaries, which we are seeing playing out more broadly in the industry today. Move fast and break things, applied to people.
There is nothing wrong imo with sex parties and heavy LSD use in theory, but combined with the shadow of 100B+ interest groups, leads to some of the most coercive and fucked up social dynamics that I have ever seen. The climate was like a fratty LSD version of 2008 Wall Street bankers, which bodes ill for Al safety.
Women are like canaries in the coal mine. They are often the first to realize that something has gone horribly wrong, and to smell the cultural carbon monoxide in the air. For many women, Silicon Valley can be like Westworld, where violenceI have seen people repeatedly get shut down for pointing out these problems.
Once, when trying to point out these problems, I had three OpenAl and Anthropic researchers debate whether I was mentally ill on a Google document.
thave no
history of mental illness; and this incident stuck with me as an example of blindspots/groupthink.
I am not writing this on the behalf of any interest group. Historically, much of OpenAl-adjacent shenanigans has been blamed on groups with weaker PR teams, like Effective Altruism and rationalists. I actually feel bad for the latter two groups for taking so many undeserved hits. There are good and bad apples in every faction. There are so many brilliant, kind, amazing people at OpenAl, and there are so many brilliant, kind, and amazing people in Anthropic/EA/Google/[insert whatever group]. I'm agnostic. My one loyalty is to the respect and dignity of human life.
I'm not under an NDA. I never worked for OpenAl. I just observed the surrounding Al culture through the community house scene in SF, as a fly-on-the-wall, hearing insider information and backroom deals, befriending dozens of women and allies and well-meaning parties, and watching many them get burned. It's likely these problems are not really on OpenAl but symptomatic of a much deeper rot in the Valley. I wish I could say more, but probably shouldn't.
I will not pretend that my time among these circles didn't do damage. I wish that 55% of my brain was not devoted to strategizing about the survival of me and of my friends. I would like to devote my brain completely and totally to Al research finding the first principles of visual circuits, and collecting maximally activating images of CLIP SAEs to send to my collaborators for publication.
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Passanthallich @passanthalbot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
@JonHeyman tweeted They finally found a way to prevent Pete from playing 162
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 27/09/2026
Women trying to succeed in Silicon Valley AI and effective altruist spaces are reporting feeling serious social pressure to attend sex parties - where people have reported being sexually assaulted, like below. Events like Aella’s “Slutcon,” which is happening again this weekend.
Ann Pierce
@itsannpierce
20h
I am disheartened by this as well. I already lost a bunch of followers for agreeing with @tautologer, but it's saddening to see local nerdy women being caricatured as Karen-like outsiders and getting pushed out of the scene. This is exactly why you hear so few concrete, names-attached stories of sexual harrassment and assault. I'm told there is a history of discrediting these because the "slut normalization" thing is top priority and these stories get inconveniently in the way of spreading this ideology.
I got roped into attending last year's Saturday Slutcon party because so many local and out-of-town friends were there (to echo sentiments @tautologer expressed about "slut events becoming central to the larger scenes). Mostly I hung out with people I knew and that was great. But in the course of my 3-ish hours there, there were 2 times my "no" was not accepted by a man I didn't know, and I was physically pushing a huge guy off of me who was rubbing his penis on me, who continued to do it despite my physical force against him, and after I finally wriggled away from him, told him I wanted to dance alone etc., he came back and did it again.
This was scary and bad, but it didn't even cross my mind to report this because one of the other people who didn't accept my "no" earlier in the night was the bartender (an officially sanctioned authority at the event), and I knew the event was organized exclusively by women into CNC (who are vocal about how rapey behavior turns them on), so I figured this sort of thing would just get me laughed at. And anyway, I heard there were a lot of other incidents like it. Later though, someone encouraged me to report this story to the organizers, and despite my embarrassment I did, so *they know* that this and other incidents happened. This is why they cut the Saturday night party this year and created a larger training program for the flirt girls - *because* of things like this last year. Yet the narrative bein…People who haven't been to Slutcon are saying "it's just group therapy," "it's just innocent flirting." But the environment is much like a sex party in that many people are nude, there is making out and sex acts happening out in the open. I think it's pretty unreasonable to expect that every nerdy girl who likes rationalist bloggers or is into EA/AI safety should automatically be comfortable with this! That if she's not, there's something wrong with her, we don't want her in our scenes, etc.
Not to mention, it's explictly an event *for men*, where men are the clients and the "flirt girls" are the product. Last year I overheard an exchange where a man felt "led on" by a flirt girl and was trying to get her punished/kicked out. (A dynamic that seems inevitable in this context!)
Anyway- it does sound like they've upped their consent education a lot this year, are more organized, and that's good! As I've told my friends who are attending: I hope they have fun!
I heard several accounts last year of women who had no problems and really enjoyed the event. That's great!
Just... can we live in reality about this? There are real reasons why male-female sexual dynamics are tricky.
Encouraging autistic men who can't yet read body language to go around asking to see womens' boobs is maybe a bit ill-advised. Maybe not everyone should be/identify as a slut; maybe it's not for everyone.
And yeah, filtering the Bay Area Al safety scene down to only women who are super comfy with this eliminates *most* women - including many of the really smart, nerdy, weird women who've been in the larger scenes for years. What a loss for humanity.
I absolutely understand why people with a minority sexuality would want to create belonging, would want to create spaces for people like themselves. But why do it like this/at this cost?
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Mike Eliason @holz-bau.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
chat is this good?
all construction dropping massively.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 25/09/2026
Black are shows that I've seen most or all of. Red is my personal top 10.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 25/09/2026
In the short term, this is really good news for Democrats. If they are D+10 or whatever but less concentrated in blue states, the extra votes come from red states. Places like KS or TX might be more competitive than we think. Gerrymanders might break if the vote redistributes like they did in 2018.
natesilver.net
The blue wave is mostly in red states. That's a little weird.
Still Counting EP3. Plus some quick thoughts on that NYT poll in Maine.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 25/09/2026
Just a bizarre top end of the list. Parks and Rec at #50, 30 Rock as the best comedy of the 21st century at #8? Fleabag at #5? Game of Thrones at #6? Girls at #13? White Lotus at #21? Black Mirror at #26? And I loved Succession, but #4?
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The Texas LG talked about private polling at a Texas fundraiser today. He specifically said 2 Texas state senators were in dead heat in GOP polling—both extraordinarily red districts. One district that voted for Trump by 20%, another for Trump by 25%. via quorumreport.com/quorum_repor...
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New from Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh: The AI build-out is huge and financed with an enormous amount of leverage. Firm revenues will have to continue to growth very rapidly to service all this debt, some of which doesn't show up on hyperscaler balance sheets. www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
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Jonathan Cohn @jonathancohn.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A Hitler-loving attorney representing the Hitler-loving president in a lawsuit accusing a university of antisemitism. Got it. www.bostonglobe.com/2025/09/02/m...
bostonglobe.com
DOJ lawyer in Harvard case once wrote a paper from Hitler’s perspective - The Boston Globe
Michael Velchik once also told a peer that "Mein Kampf" was among his favorite recent reads.
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
30yr yield touched its highest level since June 2004 today.. 5.424%
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
📄 New working paper w. Alex De Juan, @felixhaass.bsky.social & Henry Thomson: We study Weimar Germany in 1932 to ask whether far right electoral success pacifies extremist movements - or can fuel violence when mandates do not translate into power. osf.io/preprints/so...
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Geoboo Song (송거부) @gbsong.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
We are hiring 4 TT APs. See the links below! Public Administration: uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UAF_Ex... Public Law: uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UAF_Ex... CP/IR (Populism): uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UAF_Ex... CP/IR (NGOs/MENA): uasys.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UAF_Ex...
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Interesting hypotheticals here from a recent YouGov survey in @dhmontgomery.com's Surveyor newsletter. The 10 point "not sure" range for the DSA/MAGA split is I think important to keep in mind alongside the actual choice splits. yougovamerica.substack.com/p/democrats-...
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 22/09/2026
Whoa! The relationship change in between primary turnout and change in vote share is super-duper close. Those D+14 polls don't look crazy given these data.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026
In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.
the-downballot.com
Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate
There’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 22/09/2026
I don't think that Utah is going to be a purple state any time soon, but if Salt Lake City keeps growing so fast, it could be competitive quickly. If Spencer Cox were a typical MAGA candidate, the Governor race would be real competitive this year.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 22/09/2026
New high for Democrats in the @fiftyplusone.news model. Median outcome is now 52-48 Dem Senate, but a 53-47 or better Senate is just as likely as the Republicans holding the chamber.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 22/09/2026
Benny Safdie as physicist Edward Teller in Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" (2023), in a scene depicting the Trinity test site, his face coated in sunscreen and wearing protective goggles, with a numbered badge ("73") on his shirt, standing near a vintage truck at night with two blurred figures in the background.
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Brandi Bennett @bbennettesq.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I have clients worried about bullshit age verification laws for cartoon drawings with better processes for screening users for age than these tech frats.
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Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
NBC News poll finds big jump in D voter intent to vote early & drop in intent to vote by mail: - 23% intend to vote by mail, down from 34% in '24 - 36% intend to vote early in person, up fr 30% in '24 - 36% intend to vote in person on Election Day, same as 35% in '24 👇 www.axios.com/2026/09/20/m...
axios.com
More Democrats plan to vote in person in midterms
The result marks a significant shift from the 2024 election.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 21/09/2026
Updating my slides. This figure on the growth if solar energy will never cease to amaze me.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
NEW: @apnews.com confirms that ICE has begun electronically "disappearing" people in the agency's custody who have final orders of removal. As of last week, anyone jailed by ICE with a final order of removal will NOT appear in the ICE Online Detainee Locator System, making them effectively vanish.
apnews.com
AP Exclusive: ICE hides locations of thousands of detainees with final removal orders
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has stopped publicly revealing where it is holding most detainees who are subject to final deportation orders, in a move that has made it harder for lawyers an...
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 21/09/2026
Mississippi's "miracle" reading results appear to be driven by testing effects. When the NAEP exam became high stakes (pass or retained), more students got accommodations and way more students who failed got exemptions. The test pass rate hasn't increased since 2019. www.skeptic.com/article/miss...
skeptic.com
The Mississippi Miracle: Smoke and Mirrors vs. Reality
Mississippi’s test scores have soared, but is it a genuine education breakthrough or statistical sleight of hand? Two researchers expose seven inconvenient truths behind the celebrated “Mississippi Mi...
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Scott Nover @scottnover.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
BREAKING: TV pool will not be providing coverage of presidential events until further notice b/c of CNN's ban, pool chair and FOX News Washington Bureau Chief Bryan Boughton said. It's effectively a boycott by the fellow members — ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 20/09/2026
In addition to the bigger picture stuff, Democrats should include a few smaller but tangible affordability policies. Stuff like price controls for key fobs, recurring subscription price increases, etc. www.politico.com/news/2026/06...
politico.com
Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats will prioritize affordability. Not all of his members agree.
Even as inflation rises, some insist the Democratic agenda should put other fundamentals front and center.
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
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Garrett M. Graff @vermontgmg.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Scammers gonna scam. Trump understands that courts give him huge leeway if he hand-waves “national security,” eg his ballroom, and so now he’s trying to pretend there’s a security imperative for his arch.
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Spencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
It’s not “third-country deportation,” it’s an extraordinary rendition, complete with torture and enforced silence by the “host” country’s thugs. And it’s a direct consequence of never imposing punishment on the CIA for doing this during the War on Terror.
nytimes.com
A Central African Hotel Has Become a Nightmare Prison for U.S. Deportees
Witnesses say men were hooded and beaten in Equatorial Guinea. The autocratic government there is a partner in President Trump’s deportation program.
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