iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Garrity won two races for State Treasurer and has been the gubernatorial nominee for months. She is not well-funded now, but this also says something about how much attention even likely voters pay to politics.

030

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

If people are unfamiliar with facts like "it takes 2/3 of both Houses to override a veto", "the Executive enforces laws", and "it takes 2/3 of the Senate to convict/remove a President" -all of which have been true since 1787!- that's really a them problem more than some oligarch's doing.

140

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

There are reasons not to want AOC as a nominee, and she may have her own reasons if, despite signals, she doesn't run, but the idea that a woman per se is less electable is not well-supported. Sexism is real, but so is racism and Obama and other Black candidates have won outside Black districts.1)

107211

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Once in a while, the algorithm comes through! www.facebook.com/share/v/1Py7...

facebook.com

100

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Beyond Simpsons or LOTR or any specific show, movie or (shudder) book, it always stuns and disappoints me how many people don't seem to have the concept that some of the good stuff might predate them by a few years, decades or centuries.

230

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Dave Hopkins argues that even without much of a "Resistance II" Trump became unpopular and Dems will win the midterms. There is a parallel in the Iraq War becoming unpopular and the Iran War never being popular without anything like the 1960s Antiwar Movement emerging in either case.

160

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

This seems to be largely a rebranding of the status quo to claim a win, much like Trump's first term USMCA replacing "Worst Trade Deal Ever" NAFTA he threatened to withdraw from with an only slightly updated agreement. Denmark always said the US could increase the military presence.

52110

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

While high-profile controversial Trump nominees like Hegseth, Gabbard, Patel and RFK Jr. were confirmed, several lower-level but still important pick have been withdrawn in the face opposition. Sometimes a GOP senator goes public, but often few fingerprints. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

washingtonpost.com

White House withdraws nominee for ICE director allied with DHS chief Mullin

President Donald Trump had touted Lance Schroyer's experience with local immigration enforcement when he tapped him for the post in June.

2248

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

How many people even remember that a Biden Cabinet Secretary was impeached, the first since the 19th century? Impeachment is becoming an empty ritual. It doesn't help A. people use it to mean "be removed from office" and B. often don't know this takes 67 senators, which neither party will have.

151

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Uncertainty re McConnell's condition was reasonable, but conspiracy theories were risible. The number of people who'd have had to be involved in concealing McConnell's death with no clear motive in most cases and often reason not to do so made this a bizarre claim. 1) www.cnn.com/2026/09/14/p...

cnn.com

Mitch McConnell returns to the Senate after three-month absence due to health issues | CNN Politics

Sen. Mitch McConnell returned to Capitol Hill on Monday for the first time after a three-month absence due to health issues.

260

Reposted by David Karol

Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Most important thing to read today. Norm has done such great work on this, and it remains an important but actually fixable problem (and yes, even during the current attacks on the republic from Trump).

094

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

1. Rob Sand does MANY centrist things! 2. Turek has a stronger opponent. 3. Sand is already established as a statewide official. 4. When you have more variables than cases and you try to make a claim like the one below it won't go well.

3194

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Vance trying to have it both ways on the war is amazing and could only happen under Trump. We now know Humphrey told LBJ not to escalate in Vietnam. But he never dared let this be known in real time, even via leaks as Vance does. Even his private dissent led LBJ to freeze him out for a long time.1)

192

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Yes. Relatedly, if you convince yourself that your views are popular and yet public policy is different, the easy next step is concluding the system must be "broken" or "rigged". Maybe the system has problems, but you not getting the policy you want might just be representative government!

040

Reposted by David Karol

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

“The Miami Herald will no longer have a Miami beat” is the state of local journalism in a nutshell. Really, really bad.

352512636

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Presidents have had VERY low approval ratings without being impeached, resigning or their party splitting. Truman, Carter & GW Bush all got lower than Trump's current ratings without those things happening. A parliamentary system might be better than a Presidential one, but that's not what we have.

241

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Collins has been in office 30 years (!); Jackson won the nomination without a primary. She is MUCH better-known.

031

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

See also people worried about "gerontocracy" who just overwhelmingly voted to give an 80 year-old first elected in 1972 (!) six more years in office! Sanders was easily re-elected at 83 in 2024 too. What voters say in general and what they do in specific cases are often two different things.

010

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Yes! This is even an issue for election results. Endless debates over "if only Biden had....if only Harris had...." when incumbent parties were losing globally in the post-COVID inflationary environment. Some people don't know this context. Others have an ax to grind.

34816

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Too bad about the name, "Washington Star" had a lot of history, but more importantly this is a win for DC and journalism in general at a time when it is struggling.

040

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

If Putin were reading Bluesky regularly, he would realize that Jared Kushner has no Senate-confirmed role in the Trump Administration, so there is no reason to meet with him.

051

Reposted by David Karol

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 03/09/2026

The second part here is VERY important -->

48016

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Note that 2023, when most Dems still did not support Court expansion was after the Dobbs decision (2022. abortion), but before before Trump v. US (2024, presidential immunity) and Callais (2026, Voting Rights/redistricting).

1247

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

How much of the agenda that Trump seems to have brought to the GOP will survive him? Nativism seems the best bet; on that he was actually reflecting sentiment among the Republican base on that, unlike party elites. His approaches to N. Korea, Russia & tariffs seem less likely to persist.

141

Reposted by David Karol

Richard Skinner @richardmskinner.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

A SCOTUS decision on mail voting could easily collide with this basic fact of life.

021

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Clyburn is 86, so he might retire before such a reform would be possible in 2029, but his statement is an indicator of mainstream Democratic elites' support for this idea, which was once very fringe.

0317

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

Some wild self-reports here on Bluesky usage! Totally inconsistent with data.

001

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Yes, and the 2015 Obergefell ruling, which established same-sex marriage in 50 states, was 5-4 and only happened because Obama won in 2008 and appointed Kagan and Sotomayor, before he even announced his position change.

27416

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Yes. Ford Admin refused to do "supply-side" economics. They were deficit hawks. So was Eisenhower. Bush I was the last gasp of this, after having temporarily backed off to get on the ticket with Reagan and run in 1988 on "No New Taxes". I discuss it in this book: www.cambridge.org/core/books/p...

cambridge.org

074

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Downgrade a movie Sepulveda Boulevard

000

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Swing/ticket-splitting voters still exist.

000

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Yes. Her broad appeal was based not just on her great talent, charm and philanthropy, but on her choice to stay out of partisan politics. That used to be more common, e.g. Johnny Carson. Now more celebs take sides. It also wasn't the biggest deal if Crosby was a Republican and (young)Sinatra a Dem.

110

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

A win for Trump, and his candidate is winning the Oklahoma Gubernatorial primary too. Both wins are relatively narrow,and multiple factors at work, but reports of his demise as GOP boss are greatly exaggerated.

120

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Trump is the first protectionist President since Hoover. Once it looked like we'd never have another. (Biden was probably the second most protectionist since Hoover, since he kept a lot of Trump's first term tariffs and didn't push for freer trade, but he'd never have done what Trump did this time.)

011

Reposted by David Karol

Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Reminder that we're now on the Sunday after the election and AK is still at 80% of the vote counted & reported. Be prepared for it when we get to November, when they can't do their instant runoff until the votes are all counted. Important for media to set correct expectations (AK and elsewhere).

14514

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

The big "change" was that Trump wouldn't support her Senate bid. Forbes reports she attacked Trump’s "demeanor, name calling, absurd and reckless rhetoric" and said he's "no different than an internet troll or one of the many millions of bots that say awful horrible things." Not new for him or her.

021

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I am quoted and cited in this Washington Post story about the changing politics of data centers. Despite the widely-discussed transformation of the editorial page, the Post still produces some solid news coverage, in this case some "data journalism".

washingtonpost.com

See the moment when Republican politicians turned against data centers

In the past six months, Republicans' public statements about data centers have turned sharply negative, according to a Washington Post analysis.

061

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

They ain't makin' Republicans like Nancy Landon Kassebaum Baker anymore. And she was from a red state! Relatedly, Howard Baker must be unique: senator, son of two Members of Congress, son-in-law of a senator, and husband of a senator who was the daughter of a governor and presidential nominee!

nytimes.com

Nancy Kassebaum, First Woman to Chair a Major Senate Panel, Dies at 94

A moderate Republican from Kansas, she served three terms before tiring of political strife. “I couldn’t get elected today,” she said in 2013.

033

Reposted by David Karol

Jeff Liszt @liszt.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

So, a few thoughts on the Senate... Patrick Ruffini (GOP) has a newsletter basically saying that Dems have over performed in summer polls and we should take things with a grain of salt.

1174

Reposted by David Karol

Yale ISPS @ispsyale.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Check out or new interview with the amazing David Mayhew about political patterns, American institutions, and the value of taking intellectual risks bit.ly/4gy9JuM

0123

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Ralph Norman texted Mark Meadows on January 6 saying Trump needed to declare "Marshall Law" (sic). Who knows, but I think Darline Graham would be less likely to do that kind of thing.

74410

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

This is fair enough, but the primary itself shows the limited importance of money in campaigns! Money should matter MORE in primaries too, since a greater share of voters are in play.

040

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Vindman raised 14x (!) as much as Nixon, yet lost. One more example that money isn't everything in politics. Something for people who say everything is "rigged" and "bought" to ponder. Self-financers who spent massively (Steyer, Trone) lost. Vindman even raised $$$ from small donors! Still losing.

1105

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

So much for concerns about "gerontocracy" and demand for term limits! Markey is 80. He has been in office since election to the state legislature in 1972(!) and he's in his 50th YEAR in Congress!

130

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Studies show that donors are more extreme than primary voters, who are actually not so different from parties' general election voters. Far fewer people donate even small amounts than vote in primaries, and they are distinctive-more politically attentive, more partisan and more extreme.

0124