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Mike Konczal

@mtkonczal.bsky.social
45K followers 384 following 604 posts

Econ person. VP of Policy and Research, @economicsecurityproject.org. Former NEC. #Rstats, Team Macro, dad, Chicago Guy. newsletter.mikekonczal.com

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Reposted by Mike Konczal
economicsecurity.bsky.social @economicsecurityproject.org · 28/09/2026
4/ Devesh Kodnani is an MIT PhD candidate and economist focused on reducing income inequality and helping workers share in AI's gains. He's worked at the Joint Economic Committee, CAP, and Goldman Sachs. At ESP, he'll research social insurance and labor policy, with a focus on AI's impact on labor.
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economicsecurity.bsky.social @economicsecurityproject.org · 28/09/2026
3/ @gabyaboulafia.bsky.social is a Harvard doctoral student studying how public insurance program design shapes people's experiences with government + their political attitudes. She'll join Jacob on our healthcare research, including a public option that works for consumers.
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economicsecurity.bsky.social @economicsecurityproject.org · 28/09/2026
2/ @jacobhacker.bsky.social is a Yale political scientist who studies health policy, inequality, & the politics of risk. Author of "The Great Risk Shift," he's known for developing the healthcare public option. At ESP, he'll research the core pillars of a public option.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Very excited to bring these three new fellows onto my team, including @jacobhacker.bsky.social and @gabyaboulafia.bsky.social. Jacob's early work got me interested in policy back when, and Gaby and Devesh are brilliant new people looking at health care and AI/labor respectively. More to come.
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
via @mtkonczal.bsky.social on twitter -- the jobs numbers have been extremely noisy for several months, but when you average them out, a story comes through job growth is in the range of normal, but real wages are now legitimately falling
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Wait I'm sorry are we not putting Bluey on these lists? What other show has used evolution from the sea to the stars as a metaphor for parenting and death told through assembling IKEA furniture, all in eight minutes?
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I knew but still am amazed at how bad these numbers are, 10th percentile having a worse time of it than peak 10% inflation in 2022.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I did a big dive to see if I could literally find any labor market variable that was better for native-born workers now than it was in 2024, and couldn't find anything. And, well, nothing. Here are the ten biggest misses, but there's so many more. newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers.
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Reposted by Mike Konczal
Mill Street Research @millstreetresearch.com · 23/09/2026
Some useful data analysis by @mtkonczal.bsky.social about whether shutting down immigration has helped native-born US workers at all. TL;DR is a very clear "No", with a much appreciated assist from #1 Jonathan Frakes newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/can-we-fin...
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Very excited about the next two books in the queue. (But are they the same book?)
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
@bbkogan.bsky.social wtf
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The Tax Foundation argued recently that we should think of the falling labor share as making a 'round trip' back to 'historically precedented' values. I disagree and walk through how the argument is weaker than it seems. Plus we dig into NIPA flat files! newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/i-disagree...
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
I Disagree With The Tax Foundation, Labor Share is Collapsing
Getting into the guts of NIPA and what prop income really does when you include it.
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
As Mike said a few months ago, everyone has an industrial policy plan until they get punched in the face by 'itty-bitty titties and a bob.'
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Steve Kiviat @dcsuburbanite.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Uh oh, Kermit Ruffins saying on Instagram he has to sell the Treme Mothers-in-Law Lounge in New Orleans
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
No matter how much they try, conservatives can't deliever on their male breadwinner economy. New post. Industries that already employ women are growing faster, indeed they are the only thing growing overall and still the majority effect since November. newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/why-are-wo...
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
Why Are Women Over 100% of Jobs Gained Under Trump’s Second Term?
All their effort at a gender vibe shift is in service of a plan that is failing on its own terms.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US!
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R.E.M. @remhq.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Crank it up! “What’s The Frequency, Kenneth?” was released as the first single from Monster on this day in 1994. Video directed by Peter Care.
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Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The guy that did Weapons is also in one of the greatest sketches in internet history: Gallon of PCP
youtube.com
WKUK: Gallon of PCP [HD]
YouTube video by WKUK: Whitest Kids U’ Know
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
BLS this morning, with revised 2Q data: "The labor share, which is the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation, was 52.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest level in the series, which begins in the first quarter of 1947."
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I appreciate Buffy's leadership on this. Next time you hear a CA legislator's paean to homeownership, remember that if they oppose condo defect reform then they're just endorsing more ecologically and economically ruinous sprawl.
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Buffy Wicks @buffywicks.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I am incredibly disappointed & frustrated that AB 1903, my bill to reform construction defect liability, just died in the Senate. Critical components were amended out Friday & it was ultimately held by the Senate late last night — missing the midnight deadline for concurrence.
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Brendel @brendelbored.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
What’s fun is after this the vile Piers Morgan is like “but didn’t you say you wanted this to happen to Somali people in America?” and he proceeds to say a bunch of racist things about how they deserve it unlike British people, so uh, not a lot of progress on the whole degrading human beings thing
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Surprising to me: as opposed to 2025, where the situation was much worse and v/u was less than 1, right now the number of job openings is higher than the number of unemployed. Looks driven by developments on both parts in recent months.
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weeder @weeder.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
So funny watching the media try to write 2000's era Grand Theft Auto Outrage articles now that the whole country is a casino run by murderers.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I would say it's another very troubling sign that Commerce intends to interfere further with the statistical and scientific agencies under its purview.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
This change grants Commerce political appointees veto power over data and research releases by scientists and statisticians at NOAA, NIST, Census, and BEA.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
New piece on the most interesting inflation question I think is out there. It's debated in some circles, but is definitely missing from the general discourse and coverage: is inflation CPI, and thus near its target, or PCE, and so high and above target it deserve hikes? /1
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
A very small preliminary benchmark revision meaning the payroll survey did a pretty amazing job estimating job growth last year. Since the pattern for QCEW revisions is that they are revised up this may convert to a small positive revision in Feb.
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Alex @purplechrain.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
On the subject of Dolly’s union/working class solidarity, her 9 to 5 LP included Woody Guthrie’s ´Deportee (Plane Wreck at Los Gatos)’, a protest song about the racist mistreatment & media coverage of exploited Mexican farm workers who died when the plane deporting them crashed in 1948.
youtu.be
Deportee (Plane Wreck at Los Gatos)
YouTube video by Dolly Parton - Topic
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Garry @thegmcconnachie.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
This is why Dolly Parton will be remembered and loved ❤️📚
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Matthew Gertz @mattgertz.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Donald Trump is the greatest threat to our free speech rights.
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Win Monroe @winmonroe.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Some thoughts on the Treasury buy back announcement (apologies in advance for the length...) The original purpose of the Tsy buy-back program was to improve structural liquidity in treasury securities. I think it’s helpful to contrast this with the two flavors of QE.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Very excited to share what we built at @economicsecurityproject.org: the Affordability Dashboard. There's a bunch of scattered data I'm always pulling, stuff useful for politicos, reporters, and activists on affordability, so we put it in one place. /1 economicsecurityproject.org/resource/aff...
economicsecurityproject.org
Affordability Dashboard
Childcare. Healthcare. Groceries. Gas. Every essential costs more since the pandemic.
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emptywheel @emptywheel.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Don't lose track of the Spokane case here, which hasn't gotten as much attention as Broadview.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
j2jexplorer.ces.census.gov
j2jexplorer.ces.census.gov
J2J Explorer | U.S. Census Bureau Job-to-Job Flows Data
Explore Job-to-Job Flows (J2J) data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Analyze worker flows and earnings by detailed industry, geography, and to/from employment.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Check out the data visualizations for Census J2J data and see if you like any of them (we thought about this a lot while designing it)
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Here is this dynamic slightly different: the 12-month change going back to 2022-23. Health care jobs are just chugging along as normal during this time, maybe slowing a bit into 2026. It's the rest of the labor market that fell into negative territory in 2025, that also took men into 0 job growth.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Now that the labor market is interesting again, has anyone actually found a useful way to visually display job flows? Anything people personally like? I'm just having Claude make dozens of attempts until something sticks....
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Come work with me! I'm hiring a Senior Director for my team. I want to push what a policy and research team can do, and this position will be at the forefront of tackling the big economic questions of the day. Consider applying or sharing. pod4.app.loxo.co/job/MzkzMzUt...
pod4.app.loxo.co
Economic Security Project - Senior Director of Policy and Research (USA)
View and Download Full Position ProfileAbout the OrganizationThe Economic Security Project (ESP)...
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Making a little data dashboard for my website and the second row here, I dunno, the last year and a half are kind of wild.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
But it's different now that I'm poor (from child care) and aging.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Good time to plug Factory Settings, a Substack about the actual challenges of launching the CHIPs Act by those who did it. (Fairly certain this wasn't a constraint.) www.factorysettings.org
factorysettings.org
Factory Settings | Substack
How to update the default settings of government, by former CHIPS Program Office leadership. Click to read Factory Settings, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
It's very weird to not center a win on an issue you are getting clobbered on.
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Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
this is really a git tutorial (laudatory)
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
New post: I think I've finally gotten my AI process as a policy and economics researcher in place, and between HTML dives into research, git diffs on edits, and elaborate rehearsals on arguments, I wanted to share it all with you here. /1 newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/the-econom...
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
What I’ve Been Doing With AI so Far in 2026
Learning git to escape the permanent underclass.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Go read Mike’s piece if you haven’t already: open.substack.com/pub/mikekonc...
open.substack.com
Kevin Warsh’s Press Conference Collides Into 30 Years of Michael Woodford
The new Fed chair argued that the Fed should stop reflecting markets back at themselves. Forgotten debates show how this leads to confusing, indeterminate results.
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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
This feels a lot like the indeterminacy problem that @mtkonczal.bsky.social wrote about last week. It’s not clear to me how a price stability pledge can reduce inflation risks without the Fed explaining how exactly it intends to do that.
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Team Macro data question: consensus view is that the January 2026 changes to the CES net birth/death model are *not* a driver of the recent increase in CES job numbers, correct? (Yes I know there's a webpage, yes I know I can point the AI at it, but I want to hear from all you brilliant people.)
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Computer people: why doesn't VS Code allow for: git diff --word-diff in their git interface? Specifically the word-diff part. I understand people did not think IDEs would be used for long-form writing (by people who don't want new lines for each sentence) but it's a small add?
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