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Javier Blas

@javierblas.bsky.social
5.7K followers 3 following 47 posts

Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg. Co-author of the 'The World for Sale' amzn.to/3t6dVJV Any views expressed are my own. jblas3@bloomberg.net

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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
COLUMN: Rice prices are heading to ~18-year low. "In a world worried about looming food shortages triggered by the climate crisis, the collapse in rice prices is evidence that interventions by governments and modern agricultural methods may save the day" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Rice Can Feed the World — Even With Fewer Farmers
The world’s most important crop for food security is reaching its lowest price in 18 years.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
WEEKEND LONG-READ: War in the age of American oil imperialism. The shale revolution has given the White House a freer hand in the Middle East — but that advantage isn’t limitless. @opinion.bloomberg.com #OOTT #IranIsraelConflict www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...
bloomberg.com
US Enjoys a Rare Moment of Oil Supremacy in Iran
The shale revolution has given it a freer hand in the Middle East — but that advantage is vulnerable.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
COLUMN: Largely unnoticed, the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry has reached gargantuan proportions. If it was a country, it would rank as the world's 3rd largest coal consumer. That as big implications for climate and energy policy. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
China’s Coal Industry Has a Big, Dirty Secret
Largely unnoticed, an obscure corner of the trade has reached gargantuan proportions.
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Reposted by Javier Blas
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 16/05/2025
Coconut oil just hit a record high, and your ice cream budget might take the hit. @javierblas.bsky.social explains why fuel demand in Asia is to blame 🎥
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
COLUMN: Ice cream inflation is arriving just ahead of the summer. 🍦 🌞 📈 “It's perhaps one of the most bizarre examples of how commodity policy and markets ricochet: The need for cheap fuel in Asia means more expensive ice cream in the West” @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Ice Cream Inflation Arrives Just in Time for Summer
Coconut oil, a key ingredient in our favorite sweet treat, is becoming very expensive.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
COLUMN: At current prices, US shale oil output has probably peaked. Just don’t expect a rapid decline like the downturns of 2015 and 2020; the most likely trajectory is an undulating plateau. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
US Oil Output Has Peaked. But Don’t Expect a Rapid Decline.
Nothing suggests that a repetition of 2020’s plunge is imminent.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
COLUMN: The four most dangerous words in finance are “this time is different.” History suggests that when Saudi Arabia launches a price war against one of its OPEC+ allies, it ultimately succeeds — but this time really will be different. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Saudi Arabia Goes Whistling Past the Kazakh Oil Graveyard
The kingdom’s attempts to enforce quota discipline on the OPEC+ cartel are doomed to fail.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
COLUMN: It's time to discuss how electrifying everything comes with plenty of risks of its own. My take on today’s IEA/UK conference on “The future of energy security”, including tidbits from the conference confidential background paper. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
It’s Electricity Realism, Not Climate Denialism
Electrifying everything comes with plenty of risks of its own.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
COLUMN: How do you say "drill, baby, drill" in Mandarin? Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba." China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago. My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
COLUNM: COLUMN: Has oil reached a buy-first-and-ask-questions-later moment? Not even close. Just because prices have fallen to a 4-year low doesn’t mean oil is a bargain. It does mean that it’s cheap. But what’s cheap could become cheaper. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Oil Is Cheap But It Isn’t (Yet) a Bargain
For the past 18 months and up to the current selloff, I have been indubitably bearish. But the game is starting to change.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
COLUMN: The US oil industry has done more to reduce its country’s trade deficit than any other. Now, President Donald Trump, in theory the champion of “drill, baby, drill,” risks killing it with his obsession with $50-a-barrel oil. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
$50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade Deficit
Shale producers reversed the US oil deficit. Now they face ruin at $50-a-barrel.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
COLUMN: The economy is slowing down - and Saudi Arabia is hiking oil output to teach a lesson to OPEC cheaters. Cynical oil investors should be forgiven for having a case of déjà vu: it happened too in 1997, and it ended badly for prices. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
‘Ghost of Jakarta’ Haunts a Fragile Oil Market
Crude prices have yet to reach bottom after the Saudis pushed for production increase.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
COLUMN: The race to rebuild European natural gas storage has started -- but don't expect anyone rushing. As it currently stands, the invisible hand of the market doesn't help, and utilities and traders will take a wait-and-see approach. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Is an Upside-Down Gas Market Europe's New Normal?
High prices have discouraged stocking up to prepare for next winter.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
COLUMN: In 1970, NASA described the Apollo 13 mission as "successful failure." The same can be said about oil giant Shell's strategy. Shell has done what it promised — a success. But hasn't closed the valuation gap with US rivals — a failure @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Shell’s Revamped Strategy Is a ‘Successful Failure’
The London-listed oil giant hasn’t succeeded in closing a valuation gap to its US peers. Maybe a change of domicile is needed.
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Reposted by Javier Blas
Bloomberg Opinion @opinion.bloomberg.com · 21/03/2025
Heathrow airport's shutdown suggests not paying for adequate back-up systems is a false economy, writes @javierblas.bsky.social ⬇️
bloomberg.com
Heathrow Shutdown Exposes Dangers of a Single Point of Failure
The closure of Europe’s busiest airport after a fire suggests not paying for adequate back-up systems is a false economy.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
COLUMN: There's a lot more oil than crude in today's petroleum market. In trying to gauge oil prices, it helps to count the barrels — all of them. And that includes natural gas liquids and condensates. And to know the OPEC+ loopholes. @opinion.bloomberg.com #OOTT www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Ignore the Boom in Oil That Isn’t Oil at Your Peril
Assessing the market requires more than just counting barrels of crude.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
COLUMN: Despite a ~$30-a-barrel sell-off over the last 18 months, I'm still (somewhat) bearish. The oil market and the industry face significant headwinds - above all: OPEC+ is boosting output and Trump wants much lower prices. @opinion.bloomberg.com #OOTT www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Oil Industry Is Over a Half-Empty Barrel
Delight over Trump’s election has passed for executives worried about falling prices.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
COLUMN: President Donald Trump won’t make American farming great again. Quite the opposite: Trump is on a trade wars path that will inflict long lasting damage to rural America. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Trade Wars Won’t Make American Farming Great Again
The US trade war will hurt food exports and increase the agricultural trade deficit.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Oil is trading today at the same level as 20 years ago. Even without adjusting by inflation, in mere nominal terms, a barrel of Brent crude cost today as it did in mid-2005. Add on top cumulative inflation, and this is a huge loss of purchasing power for OPEC+ @opinion.bloomberg.com
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
COLUMN: After the OPEC+ output hike, the chatter about an “oil grand bargain” isn’t geopolitical fantasy. The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia may work alongside in the oil market, if not explicitly then tacitly. But can they agree on prices? @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The ‘Oil Grand Bargain’ Isn’t Mere Fantasy
Thinking the unthinkable is useful, especially when the global oil market’s three kings are involved.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
VIDEO COLUMN: Fantasy minerals. Many people — not least of all, US President Donald Trump — seem convinced Ukraine has a lot of rare earths minerals. It’s utter nonsense. @opinion.bloomberg.com #Ukraine www.instagram.com/reel/DGh4kw5...
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
COLUMN: The return of Russian commodities? With the exception of natural gas, they never really left. Still, the oil and commodities sanctions regime against Russia is already crumbling, in reality if not in law yet. #Ukraine #Russia @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Return of Russian Commodities? They Never Really Left
Only natural gas could see a big drop in prices once trade normalizes.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
COLUMN: What Ukraine has is scorched earth; what it doesn’t have is rare earths. Surprisingly, many people — not least, US President Trump — seem convinced the country has a rich mineral endowment. It’s a folly. [FREE TO READ] #Ukraine @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Rare Earths in Ukraine? No, Only Scorched Earth.
President Trump’s fixation on extracting elements from the war-torn nation is an illusion.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
COLUMN: Don’t call them “critical minerals” and use their old name: “minor metals” Yes, they are important, but their US dollar value is too small to matter. So don't believe the hype about the repercussions of China's export restrictions @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Don’t Fall for the Hype About China’s Critical Minerals Controls
The dollar value of US imports of tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium is too small to matter.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
COLUMN: "Hope isn't a strategy" My @opinion.bloomberg.com column on the European gas market. Replenishing stockpiles this summer is critical. "Short of going naked into next winter, Europe still needs lots of gas. I’d rather head into winter fully clothed" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Europe Is Better Safe Than Sorry on Natural Gas
Replenishing stockpiles, however costly, beats gambling that energy costs will decline next winter.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
VIDEO COLUMN: Coffee inflation. I cannot live without my caffeine fix, particularly since my efforts to clone the looks of George Clooney hooked me into the capsules. Sadly, my espresso is going to get expensive in 2025. Very expensive. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.linkedin.com/posts/javier...
linkedin.com
Javier Blas on LinkedIn: #coffee #inflation | 28 comments
VIDEO COLUMN: Forgive me for sounding alarmist but, alongside olive oil, coffee is something I cannot live without, particularly since my efforts to live the… | 28 comments on LinkedIn
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
COLUMN: Gone with(out) the wind. The collapse of the Norwegian gov last week is a wake up call that the European electricity market is dysfunctional, prices are too high and the lack of baseload and dispatchable generation is a concern. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Why Norway’s Political Crisis Is a European Energy Problem
The 30-year-long trend of integration and liberalization of the region’s electricity market is at risk.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
COLUMN: OPEC+ won't be able to resist Donald Trump's pressure for a lower oil price for long. By happy coincidence, the cartel doesn’t need to lose face. Pleasing Trump could be presented simply as following the existing plan. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
OPEC+ Will Buckle Under Trump's Pressure
The president wants a lower oil price. The cartel can save face while complying with his wish.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
VIDEO COLUMN: Greenland isn't Wonderland. Every few years, a craze engulfs the commodity industry. The buzz of today is #Greenland. So large are its riches that US President Donald Trump wants it. Trouble is, the theory of its commodity riches is utter nonsense. www.linkedin.com/posts/javier...
linkedin.com
Javier Blas on LinkedIn: #greenland | 23 comments
VIDEO COLUMN: Greenland isn't Wonderland. Every few years, a craze engulfs the commodity industry. The buzz of today is Greenland. So large are its riches… | 23 comments on LinkedIn
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
COLUMN: Coffee is the next inflation shock. If anything, the only question is why retail prices aren’t much higher already. In nominal terms, wholesale coffee is at the highest price level ever, having surpassed the peak set in 1977. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Your Cup of Morning Joe Is About to Shock You
Wholesale coffee prices have surged. Retail costs will undoubtedly follow suit.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
COLUMN: Every few years, a craze about unimaginable riches engulfs the commodity industry. The buzz now is Greenland — so large is its mineral wealth that US President Donald Trump wants it. Trouble is, the theory is utter nonsense. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Trump's Folly? Greenland for Critical Minerals Is Utter Nonsense
The Danish island is nowhere near becoming a commodity superpower.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
COLUMN: The twilight of Saudi oil in America. In 2024, US imports of Saudi crude plunged to a ~40 years low — and the drop will deepen further in 2025 as one of the last remaining refiners buying the barrel closes. Read my @opinion.bloomberg.com column here: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
COLUMN: Europe will have a natural gas problem this summer -- exactly when, seasonally, demand drops and prices typically fall. And that means the higher-for-longer outlook for regional gas prices just got a bit higher and longer. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Europe’s Summer Will Bring Worries About Next Winter’s Gas
The higher-for-longer outlook for prices just got a bit higher and longer.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
COLUMN: New Year Preview. Before it’s too late, order your espresso. It will be more expensive in 2025, and anyone trading — or observing — energy and commodity markets into the new year will need caffeine to survive. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Prepare for a Bumpy Year in Coffee, Oil and Other Commodities
What I’m watching might give you the jitters.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
COLUMN: The olive oil crisis is over. Extra virgin olive oil wholesale prices have already fallen ~55% from their February record high; retail prices will soon follow. But, and this is a rather large but, all problems aren't solved. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
The Olive Oil Crisis Is Over — But My Fears Aren’t
Prices for the golden commodity are set to drop thanks to a bountiful harvest this year. That doesn’t solve all its problems.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
COLUMN: Consign coal to history? Forget it. China pushed global coal demand to a record high in 2024, @iea.org said in its coal flagship report. IEA has now ditched its "peak coal" theory and sees higher demand in 2025, 2026 and 2027. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
We’re Burning More Coal Than Ever Thanks to China
Predictions of declining demand for the world’s most polluting fossil fuel are premature.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Attention all: @javierbias.bsky.social is an impersonator. I have reported them and please do the same. And ignore all their direct messages about crypto investments
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
COLUMN: If anything differentiates Exxon from the rest is its ability to invest countercyclically — to be "greedy only when others are fearful," in Warren Buffett’s words. For a while, Exxon lost that ability -- now, it has regained it. @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Exxon Mobil Plots the Way Back to a League of Its Own
The oil giant plans to spend more than rivals on both exploration and shareholder payouts.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
COLUMN: BP's future as a standalone entity is bleak. The board should put the British oil company up for sale. #OOTT $BP @opinion.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
BP’s Chairman Needs to Put the Company Up for Sale
The UK oil company’s future as a standalone entity is bleak.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
COLUMN: The new Swiss report on commodity speculation reads like an all-nighter effort by a first-year college student — or something spat out by ChatGPT when asked to write it with no original research, no criticism, and without naming names. @opinion.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Switzerland Flunks Its Study of Commodity Speculators
An industry that operates in the shadows stays in the shadows.
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
COLUMN: The best scandals are those that start when someone decides to say something utterly shocking: the truth! An OPEC+ official has said publicly what many thought privately — the group has been keeping oil prices too high. #OOTT @opinion.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Javier Blas @javierblas.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
COLUMN: OPEC+ will find Kazakhstan chafing even more than usual against oil production quotas in 2025 as the country expands its biggest oilfield | @opinion.bsky.social #OOTT www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
OPEC+ Faces an Internal Foe in 2025 — Kazakhstan
The cartel will find one of its members chafing even more than usual against oil production quotas.
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