iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by eric gonzalez juenke

This is the job, and it’s the best job

eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 1h

A great day of classes, students wanting to contribute interesting ideas with hands going up like popcorn in a class of 100, is like the greatest thrill in this job. Nothing beats it.

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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 1h

Wow.🤯 I just used @yamilrvelez.bsky.social Github repo for enabling Claude Code as an agent for Qualtrics surveys: github.com/yrvelez/qual... Claude Code took a disorganized Word doc survey draft and turned it into a stellar Qualtrics survey--better-formatted than any survey I've ever written 😅

github.com

GitHub - yrvelez/qualtrics-mcp-server

Contribute to yrvelez/qualtrics-mcp-server development by creating an account on GitHub.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 1h

Thinking about my grandkids seeing this for the first time in their history textbooks and wondering what life was like right now.

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Kate Manne @katemanne.bsky.social · 22h

I wrote for @thecut.com about the Cornell case and what it says that, at my institution and many others like it, protesters are often punished more harshly than sexual assailants www.thecut.com/article/what...

thecut.com

What It Feels Like at Cornell Right Now

As a professor at the Ivy League school, Kate Manne has known many, many victims. There’s a palpable feeling on campus, she writes, that this is big.

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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 23h

We’re starting to learn more about how the technology can change us. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

nytimes.com

Will A.I. Make Your Brain Lazy?

We’re starting to learn more about how the technology can change us.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 23h

Martin Sheen's real name is Ramón Antonio Gerardo Estévez. He changed it to get work and regretted it later.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 23h

I will not pay attention to EV numbers. I will not pay attention to EV numbers. I will not... (spits out beer).

EARLY VOTE TRACKER, "APPLES TO APPLES" (9/29)

This is comparing exact "at this point in time data" between 2022 and 2026.

Bottom line:(1) turnout sharply up (although this is still "first quarter" data) in NJ, PA, and VA, & (2) where there is partisan data (FL, NJ and PA)
(1/)

it's currently more Dem than in 2022.
(2/2)

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 29/09/2026

One thing that's pretty interesting about the new YouGov/Economist poll is the split between Registered Voters and Likely Voters for Trump's approval and the Generic Ballot. Approval: RV: -26, LV: -25 Generic Ballot: RV: D+8, LV: D+15 LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Dems are gonna *only* win the Generic Ballot by 10pts in real results and people on here are gonna feel bad because we didnt win Wyoming

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Wandering Hoo @wanderlib.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I do think a lot of people do need to recalibrate their reality around the fact that people born in 2008 will be voting in this election.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This isn’t true but it’s funny.

GOP's midterm convention bounce: +2.5 for the Democrats.
REAL CLEAR
POLITICS
RealClearPolitics Poll Average
2026 Generic Congressional Vote
50.5 Democrats +8.4
Republicans

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Amazing. The Detroit connection with Tim Robinson here is just perfect.

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Phil Klinkner @pklinkne.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I really love this chart. I'm guess that the correlation here (.85) is about as big as you would find for any other variable. Also, a less serious scholar than @tesler.bsky.social (namely me) would have made a crude Freudian reference to the slope of the line.

Chart shows a close positive relationship between Trump's 2024 vote and Google searches for testosterone boosters.

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Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

One note about this, because I was curious: remarkably, the state-level explanatory power of Google searches for testosterone and Trump vote survives controls for education, income, and rurality.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is how you market to meatheads. Good stuff. m.youtube.com/watch?v=lMTc...

m.youtube.com

Relax your tight end.

YouTube video by Novartis

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I’ve never even seen the wire and I know it’s better than BBT.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Your TV takes were not spicy enough. "You're an elitist snob if you think the Wire is better than Big Bang Theory." Stealing this for the next time I want to get kicked out of a boring party.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is such cool work by a super team of researchers. Free to download for a few weeks. Go get it, read it, cite it.

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Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Delighted to see our Element, Gender & Local Political Ambition, out in the world this week! We ask whether local politics (with lower demands & closer to home) and appointed offices (which don’t require campaigning) are more attractive & accessible to women. 🧵 www.cambridge.org/core/element...

Cover image of the Cambridge Element, Gender & Local Politocal Ambition by C Wolbrecht, M Holman, L Iyer, S Chapa, F Rodger, & E Schroeder.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is what running government like a business looks like.

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Hans Hassell @hjghassell.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

If there is a big wave, I wonder if it’s more likely to crest fairly evenly relative to the states’ 2024 Trump vote or if instead we see some kind of weird outcome, like Dems win TX but lose Maine.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This is correct and why subjective uncertainty remains. OTOH, these are a lot of other behavioral signals that support the polling. The last year of actual and special elections, economic and political fundamental models, GOP spending in very red elections, etc. But, yes, upsets happen all the time.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Having to listen to lottery winners talk philosophy at you is a form of modern purgatory.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Importantly, there's no evidence of anything nefarious here. These applications got caught in limbo due to a glitch at the Texas DMV; no one political was involved.

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

After further reporting by @nataliaecm.bsky.social, we now know this error affected at least 200,000 should-be Texas voters. What a mess.

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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Russ Vought just sent a rescissions request to Congress, signaling he intends to illegally impound funds. The $810 million highlighted in this “request” (but this is a pretext to just illegally impound the funds) is not the exhaustive list of many billions of dollars he’s impounding this year.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It's weird this isn't this showing up in the qual ratings (not sarcastic). This is the kind of stuff they tout as part of their special sauce.

I've been talking with a lot of Republicans this week whom l've known for at least a few cycles across the country, N=15, and in my nine years of these kinds of background conversations with both sides of the aisle, I have
never heard one side feel so doomed about an election.
17
♥
Ill 131
贝 Chaz Nuttycombe &
@ChazNuttycombe
0... Rs didn't feel this pessimistic in 2018 or 2020, Ds didn't feel this pessimistic in 2022 or even VA Ds in 2021. And the conversations I'm having with Rs make it sound like some of us in the forecasting business
are about to get our shit rocked.

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Ben Yoel @benyoel.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Question to survey methods folks: is there a paper that shows/examines whether putting items in a matrix makes them more correlated as opposed to including them as separate individual items? Thanks in advance!

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I don't know why but Cameron Winter's voice is just uniquely soothing to my brain. It's not that these songs are special or even all good but I think I could listen to him warble the phone book. Could also see how it might be some folks' audio cilantro. www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_4w...

youtube.com

Cameron Winter - Vines

YouTube video by Cameron Winter

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Supreme Court's ruling on the SAVE database shouldn't affect the 2026 election. Under federal law, you can't systematically remove voters from the rolls within 90 days of an election.

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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Midterm election predictions are still kind of all over the place. I look at the assumptions behind different approaches about how politics works. 1/ goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/studying-f...

goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com

Studying for the midterms

There’s been a lot of bad news for Republicans.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

New in APSR: Program cuts from DOGE were larger in more heavily Democratic areas www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

EV caveats abound but... this is exactly what happened last year in NJ and VA. Low-propensity Indies and leaner Dems are enthused and the same group of GOP folks are not. That's a recipe for a big wave.

Nothing changing in VA as we've gone from 60k to 115k to 145k early votes.
EV continues to look very blue, and isn't just a matter of Democrats turning out more of their high-propensity voters faster--the low-propensity voters who have cast ballots so far look to be even bluer than the high-propensity voters.
As I said in my last post about VA, you can't make strong inferences from this type of data that's (1) this early in the in-person early vote process (2) from one state (3) from a state that doesn't have party registration but it's done nothing but harden my view that the floor for the GOP/ceiling for Dems from a turnout standpoint is truly unprecedented in modern elections. I think the 20th percentile outcome for the GOP in November is super, super ugly.

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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 25/09/2026

The Times/Siena polls for governors and how they compare with the Senate races and generic congressional ballot in those states.

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Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 24/09/2026

Just refereed a manuscript for a major disciplinary journal that was plagued by fraudulent citations. Fraud is fraud. It is no different from fabricating data, and the professional consequences should be the same.

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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 25/09/2026

Here's an interesting interview on the Middle Eastern influence on modern Mexican food: www.splendidtable.org/story/2013/0...

splendidtable.org

How the flavors of the Middle East ended up in Mexico

Chef Roberto Santibañez shares the history behind Mexican dishes with Middle Eastern influences.

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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Campaign advice for all red/purple state Dems. Close the deal.

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Noah Zucker @noahzucker.com · 23/09/2026

🚨 Workforces exposed to globalization and decarbonization are often overwhelmingly male. New article at @ajpseditor.bsky.social with @rickyclark.bsky.social and @rkhoban.bsky.social asks how layoffs of these men shape voting: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

AJPS article: "Breadwinner Backlash." Abstract: Low-skilled men have long been vulnerable to globalization, decarbonization, and other forms of economic disruption. When shocks are realized, women often increase their paid labor to compensate for men's loss of income. We study how layoffs of low-skilled men and concurrent shifts in workforce composition toward women affect voting. We theorize that this labor market rebalancing produces “nostalgic” coalitions of men and women that seek a return to male-breadwinner family models. Such attitudes fuel right-wing movements that pledge to protect conservative gender roles. Evidence from local labor markets and voting in the United States over the last two decades, as well as a longitudinal study tracking individual Americans over several decades, support this theory. These findings contribute a new gender-based account of the globalization backlash.

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West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

🧩 Do voters dislike parties that mix left and right positions? In ten countries, @rdassonneville.bsky.social, Patrick Fournier & @zeynsom.bsky.social find voters know less about such parties and like them less, in part because of the inconsistency itself. 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/0140...

Description of the article "Voters' perceptions of ideologically inconsistent parties" by Ruth Dassonneville, Patrick Fournier and Zeynep Somer-Topcu, published online first in West European Politics.

Figure 2. Line chart of predicted party like/dislike ratings by how ideologically inconsistent a respondent perceives a party to be, with a histogram of observations underneath. Ratings fall markedly as perceived inconsistency rises.

Figure 3. Line chart of the effect of expert-rated ideological inconsistency on party like/dislike ratings, by how accurately a respondent perceives the party's positions, with a histogram of observations underneath. The effect is negative for respondents who place parties accurately, shrinks towards zero as their perceptions grow less accurate, and turns positive when they are far off.

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Mona Burns @monaburns.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Word is House & Senate GOP are planning to hold leadership elections on Nov 9 -one wk after the midterms Thune on what GOP will do "if" they lose: "It's not a great environment. We're doing everything we can to help. There are things you can't control in politics" Expect chaos ..

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