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Bastian Herre

@bastianherre.bsky.social
3.8K followers 496 following 402 posts

Politics & Society Lead @ourworldindata.org. I make research on democracy, human rights, and conflict easier to access and understand. he/him Check out my work: ourworldindata.org/team/bastian-her…

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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 18h
Two leading scholars of democracy argue that the US is not a democracy anymore, because the Trump government has been systematically using the state to tilt the political playing field against its opponents. But they also think it’s not going to last because civil society in the US is very strong.
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The last two decades haven't been good for democracy in Eastern Europe. Fewer liberal democracies, and fewer democracies overall.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
From July 2026 - Democratic Satisfaction and the Public Sphere - cup.org/4yP5gv2 "This article identifies three features of national public spheres – pluralism, information, and respect..." - @agustingoenaga.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract of a study discussing public theories of democracy and satisfaction, focusing on pluralism, information, and respect in 175 countries from 2000 to 2020.
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Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 30/09/2026
Excited to share our new working paper with @benyoel.bsky.social: we analyse public opinion dynamics around the consequential election in Hungary last April and specifically look at (anti-)democratic attitudes in the aftermath of Orbán's defeat. Available here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Democratic Attitudes When Backsliding Reverses: Evidence from Hungary
Increasingly, opposition actors in settings undergoing democratic backsliding have been able to unseat anti-democratic incumbents. But unseating an anti-democra
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Striking to see the increase in tourism to Albania: In 2007, the country saw about one million visits. In 2024, it was more than ten times that: 11.5 million visits.
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Audrey Alejandro @audreyalejandro.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
How state-centric is conflict studies? In this new article in International Studies Perspectives 🎉, I systematically examine how 12 major conflict event datasets embed state-centrism through their inclusion criteria, classifications, and documentation. academic.oup.com/isp/advance-...
Screen shot of title and abstract for "Words of Violence and War Categories: A Systematic Assessment of State-Centrism in Conflict Research Datasets"
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Haakon Gjerløw @haakongjerlw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
✌️ Next week, this year's recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo ✍️ Thanks to The Guardian for inviting me to share my thoughts on potential awardees and why I believe the more war there is, the more the Nobel Peace Prize matters www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Forget the famous names. Here is who actually deserves this year’s Nobel peace prize | Haakon Gjerløw
The betting markets favour the US president and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But the most vital work to secure peace is being done by those far from the spotlight, says Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the ...
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Tomorrow is International #DemocracyDay. So let’s check in on the development and state of democracy worldwide. The world has become much more democratic over the last centuries. But some of this progress has recently been reversed. A thread with some key charts:
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Good Authority @goodauth.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Africans want freedoms their governments aren’t delivering. A new Afrobarometer report details how civic rights and media freedom fall short of citizens’ demands. goodauthority.org/news/african...
goodauthority.org
Africans want freedoms their governments aren’t delivering
A new Afrobarometer report details how civic rights and media freedom fall short of citizens’ demands.
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Ala Alrababah @aalrababah.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
New article by me, @eortizospina.bsky.social, and @lcsrg.me! How elections spread, voting rights expanded, and political competition developed over the last 200 years — and billions of people won more of a say in the important decisions that affect their lives. ourworldindata.org/the-rise-of-...
ourworldindata.org
The rise of electoral democracy
How elections spread, voting rights expanded, and political competition developed around the world over the last two centuries.
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 24/08/2026
📝 New article on Our World in Data: The rise of electoral democracy. Most people around the world think democracy is a good way to run a country, but they are often dissatisfied with how it is working in practice and are concerned about where it is heading.
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 23/07/2026
As aid budgets shrink, @rglenner.bsky.social and Dean Karlan argue it's time to radically simplify aid. Focus on a small number of interventions rigorously proven to work, deliver them at scale, and avoid layering projects with multiple untested objectives. go.cgdev.org/3RPtsN6
cgdev.org
We Advised Different Governments on Aid Spending. Now We’re Calling for Radical Simplification
Smarter aid won’t undo the damage of cuts. Improving service delivery won’t solve the macroeconomic constraints to inclusive growth. But if we focus on what works and keep it simple, we can still make...
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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Ruxandra Teslo @ruxandrabio.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
In certain tech circles, it has become low-status to suggest that AGI won't automatically solve everything. I think models will continue to get smarter, but intelligence is often not the main bottleneck to physical world change. More 👇 www.writingruxandrabio.com/p/intelligen...
writingruxandrabio.com
Intelligence is not the main bottleneck
Confessions of a naive hamster: why the smartest people in the room keep missing that intelligence is often not the main bottleneck in the real world
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
What are the largest cities in the world? That's a question that isn't easy to answer, because countries define "city" quite differently. But now there is new data from the European Commission that uses satellites to make countries comparable. Turns out the largest city in the world is Jakarta!
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New working paper w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social @rantuna.bsky.social & @turnbulldugarte.com! *Does publicly refusing to cooperate with the far right only strengthen it?* A widespread belief says yes. In this paper, we test it based on a natural experiment from Spain. tinyurl.com/5azkfnas [1/6]
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Jana Tauschinski @janatausch.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Spent the past two weeks making graphics about sweltering night-time temperatures while struggling to sleep because of those same hot nights... NEW: Tropical nights come to Europe w @attractamooney.bsky.social and @nassosstylianou.bsky.social as.ft.com/r/4929ae6c-e...
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 09/07/2026
Until the middle of the 20th century, few countries had political leaders that were women. These were monarchs, who rose to their positions because of their royal lineage.
Line chart of the share of current countries that have had a woman as chief executive from 1789 to 2025, showing two series: any woman chief executive and democratically-elected woman chief executive. Both series are near zero until the mid-20th century, rise modestly from about 1960 to 1990, then accelerate sharply after 1990, with any-woman exceeding 40% and democratically-elected reaching about 30% by 2025. Source: Coppedge et al. (V-Dem) 2026. License: CC BY (author Bastian Herre).
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
I was surprised to see that China has only 1.6 million immigrants. That's close to the number of immigrants in Ireland or New Zealand. And those countries' entire populations are less than 1% of China's. Even Japan (which in my mind was the big low-immigration country) has more than twice as many.
Bar chart showing the total number of international immigrants in 2024, i.e. those who live in a country that they were not born in. The chart shows bars for the United States (52.38 million), Germany (16.75 million), Saudi Arabia (13.68 million), United Kingdom (11.85 million), India (4.8 million), Japan (3.41 million), Mexico (1.73 million), China (1.64 million), New Zealand (1.47 million), and Ireland (1.22 million). The chart is by Our World in Data, with data sources from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
In recent years, much of the most popular music and TV in many countries has been made at home, and not in the US: www.economist.com/briefing/202...
economist.com
Forget the World Cup. Culture is becoming more fragmented
Farewell to the monoculture
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Saad Gulzar سعد گلزار @saadgulzar.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
New in the Annual Review of Political Science (2026), with @kathrynbaragwanath.bsky.social : "Democracy and the Environment." We survey decades of work asking whether democracy produces better environmental outcomes. Link to open access paper: doi.org/10.1146/annu...
doi.org
Democracy and the Environment
We survey research on the relationship between democracy and the environment. The first part of our review examines how democratic systems influence environmental outcomes. Scholars have found, at bes...
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R. Daniel Kelemen @rdanielkelemen.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
@dziblatt.bsky.social and I in @foreignaffairs.com on the real lessons from Hungary www.foreignaffairs.com/hungary/how-...
foreignaffairs.com
How to Beat an Autocrat
The real lessons of Orban’s defeat.
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The WhoGov Project @whogov.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Governments around most of the world are, on average, getting older. The trend is starkest in Africa, but it is also clear in the Americas and Asia. The exception is Europe, where we saw a drop after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and then stabilization at just above 50 years of age.
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Deena Mousa @deenamousa.com · 04/06/2026
We've gotten used to technology being democratizing but, unfortunately, it seems unlikely AI will be a leapfrog miracle story. New post out now on why: newsletter.deenamousa.com/p/ai-wont-b...
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 11/06/2026
How can we measure the state of democracy around the world? Measuring democracy is challenging. It has many dimensions, and researchers assess them in different ways. No single source of data captures the full picture, so we present data from several of them.
Choropleth map of country-level Liberal Democracy Index for 2025 where it highlights global differences in democratic scores on a scale from 0 to 1. High scores are concentrated in North America, Western and Northern Europe, Australia and New Zealand, while lower scores appear across parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Central and East Asia; many countries in Latin America and southern Africa show intermediate values. A few areas are marked as having no data. The data source is the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project (2026). The chart is licensed CC BY to Our World in Data.
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Many maps offer snapshots of how the world looked at one point in time. But few track changes over time. That’s why I like the CShapes data so much: it identifies all independent states, their dependent territories, borders, and capitals for each year between 1886 and 2019.
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
I agree with @charlesjkenny.bsky.social, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social, and Euan Ritchie that the OECD should not expand its eligibility for foreign aid to some high-income countries, and should instead target aid to poorer countries, where it’s needed most: www.cgdev.org/blog/when-co...
cgdev.org
When Is a Country Too Rich for Aid? Rethinking ODA Eligibility
The OECD’s Development Assistance Committee is discussing changes to the rules on which countries are eligible to receive ODA. Any line that the OECD picks will be arbitrary, because there is no clear...
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🚨 What happens with voters when politicians use simpler language? New @thejop.bsky.social paper with @rsenninger.bsky.social: simple language changes not just what citizens understand, but who they think politicians are. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
journals.uchicago.edu
Can Simple Language Affect Voters’ Political Knowledge and Their Beliefs About Politicians? | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
How does the level of sophistication in political messages affect citizens? While research has examined how politicians use this element to distinguish themselves, little is known about how it resonat...
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Axel Dreher @adreher.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
What happened after the USAID shutdown? New GODAD paper by Marcella Nicolini and Fabio Sabatini: exposed African regions saw falling nightlights and rising acute food insecurity, especially where vulnerability was high and institutions weaker. godad.me godad.uni-goettingen.de/uploads/GODA...
godad.me
GODAD
Geocoded Official Development Assistance Dataset
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
What's the best chart making the case for democracy? The one below is a strong contender for me: there have been very few famines under democratic rule. But I would be curious to hear about others!
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
This is a very nice article that shows that in recent cases of democratic erosion, people were often still able to stop it through elections: www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu...
journalofdemocracy.org
How Aspiring Autocrats Exit | Journal of Democracy
Viktor Orbán election defeat last month stunned many people. But in truth it’s not uncommon for would-be autocrats to lose at the ballot box. It’s a more hopeful picture than many people realize.
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Amelia Malpas @malpas.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
I'm working on a project on cross-national young gender gap that shows dif patterns. The below w ESS & CSES data show 1. Dif in ideology (id=standardized by country) btwn young men & women, where x is year & y is standard deviations 2. Young men & women ideology relative to other age-gender groups
This shows the difference in young men's and young women's (<30) ideology, standardized by country, over the last two decades. The trend lines include confidence intervals. A point above the dotted line indicates that young men are to the right of young women. This shows the average ideology of age-gender groups between 2002 and 2023. Ideology is standardized within country. Above the dotted line means the group is that many standard deviations more right than their country mean, while below the line means the group is that many standard deviations left of their country mean.
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Markus Wagner @markuswagner.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
A great overview of the accommodation question by Hanno Hilbig, worth your time!
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Svend-Erik Skaaning @skaaning.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
New book on democracy. #OpenAccess Seven Myths about Democracy by Jørgen Møller & Svend-Erik Skaaning, Routledge taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mon.... Challenges (full or partial) misunderstandings about the meaning, trajectory, causes, and consequences of democracy.
taylorfrancis.com
Seven Myths about Democracy | Jørgen Møller, Svend-Erik Skaaning | Tay
This timely book challenges seven widespread misconceptions about democracy that continue to shape public and academic debates about its past, present, and
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Melanie Sauter @melinscribe.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
1/ With the DR Congo facing another Ebola outbreak, I’ve been reflecting on research I published on the 2018–2020 outbreak, one of the most violent public health emergencies for healthcare workers. Key lesson: Public health emergencies become far more dangerous when they are politicized.
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Dan Altman @daltmanir.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Although conquests of entire countries declined after WWII, conquest remained prevalent because attempts to conquer parts of countries did not decline. And the international community rarely intervened to defeat these conquest attempts.
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
It's often assumed that government ideology matters only in rich democracies. My new article suggests that's not the case: in a global analysis, leftist governments intervene more in markets than rightist governments. Who governs really matters, also in other parts of the world. shorturl.at/vAloy
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Without reliable data, it can be difficult to make political decisions. But while rich countries have up-to-date surveys on poverty, health, etc., those in poorer countries are years, if not decades, old. And that's where the data is especially needed. data360.worldbank.org/en/int/atlas...
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Lauren Gilbert @lgilbert.co · 17/04/2026
We've launched In Development! It is aiming to be the New Yorker for global development. We want to promote discourse on development without dogma - stories doing deep-dives into pressing development issues, backed up by evidence, argument, and experience. Subscribe here: indevelopmentmag.com
indevelopmentmag.com
In Development
evidence and argument for a developing world
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
More than 40% of countries have now been led by a woman — up from just over 10% in 1990. Almost all of this rise has happened in democracies.
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SIPRI.bsky.social @sipri.org · 27/04/2026
Global military expenditure reached $2,887 billion in 2025, marking the 11th consecutive annual increase. The global military burden rose to 2.5% of GDP, its highest level since 2009. Press release ➡️ bit.ly/3QWVcOW #MilitarySpending #DefenceBudget #GlobalSecurity #NATO #MilitarySpending #GDAMS
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
This is a chart I find genuinely shocking every time I see it: In 2025, barely any countries were led by women. For every woman, there were more than 9 men. The world still has far to go towards full equality.
World map showing which countries in 2025 were led by men and which by women. Far more countries were led by men than by women. The chart is from Our World in Data, the data is from V-Dem.
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 13/04/2026
On any average day, 165,000 people die globally. That’s 60 million a year. What do they die from? 🔧📊 We built a new interactive tool that lets you answer this question, with data for every country. Globally, 75% of deaths are from non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Heart disease alone is 1 in 3.
Chart showing the causes of death globally in 2023. The data source is the IHME Global Burden of Disease (2025). Chart CC BY to Our World in Data
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Tuna @antea04.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
I'm a data scientist @ourworldindata.org and I need help from a botanist or someone local to Kyoto, Japan! 🌸 We present one of the world’s longest climate records: 1,200 years of peak cherry blossom dates in Kyoto. The researcher who maintained it, Prof. Yasuyuki Aono, sadly passed away last year.
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Pakistan's solar revolution: from 0% to 25% in a decade. 2021: 4% 2022: 7% 2023: 10% 2024: 14% 2025: 25% Solar is now Pakistan's #1 electricity source. Not driven by policy — driven by consumers.
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Ray Douglas @raydouglas.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
🇺🇸 Traders placed $580mn oil bet ahead of Donald Trump’s social media post on Iran talks “My gut from watching markets for the last 25 years is this is really abnormal,” said a portfolio manager FT www.ft.com/content/1171...
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Bastian Herre @bastianherre.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
In Cuba, the lights are literally going out. The current US blockade has cut its supply of oil, which the island relies heavily on for energy. The results are blackouts, spoiled food, outages to running water, and delays in medical operations. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Mapping Cuba’s Blackouts
Cuba is facing a historic electricity crisis. Blackouts have gotten worse, and on some days the entire island is plunged into near total darkness.
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Yana Gorokhovskaia @ygorokho.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
📣Freedom in the World 2026 is now out! freedomhouse.org/report/freed... tl;dr: - Global freedom declined in 2025 & every year since 2005 - 20 yrs of backsliding has transformed the world: more autocrats, fewer democratizing states - Freedom deteriorated in the US last year & over the last 20
freedomhouse.org
The Growing Shadow of Autocracy
Global freedom declined for the 20th consecutive year in 2025. But even in this especially challenging moment, there are reasons for optimism.
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