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Chris Wlezien

@cbwlezien.bsky.social
2.5K followers 531 following 39 posts

Student of politics, first gen, Chicagoan, Austinite, Longhorn...

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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Excited to share this fully revamped WP w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social on the effects of information about economic inflation on people's economic & political attitudes. Lots of great data from @verasight.io, two of my favorite experimental designs ever, plus some extra-fun @stata.bsky.social graphs! 😁
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
If u wouldn't mind spreading the word, I'd really appreciate it. Thank u! 🙏 @johnholbein1.bsky.social @juliaazari.bsky.social @juliewronski.bsky.social, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social @cbwlezien.bsky.social @dhopkins1776.bsky.social @yamilrvelez.bsky.social @akoustov.bsky.social @adamberinsky.bsky.social
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
A new publication of possible interest with @snsoroka.bsky.social on the relationship between negativity bias in media coverage and misinformation: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Negativity and Misinformation
There are large and growing bodies of research highlighting inaccuracies in news coverage. In this paper, we suggest that negativity biases account for a substantial portion of longstanding inaccur...
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Here's a little something that might interest a number of you in my network, part of a forum in the Journal of Public Policy: www.cambridge.org/core/journal.... Many thanks to editor Josh Ryan and the commentators Samuel Bagg, Tara Grillos, Agustin Markarian, and Mary Scudder!
cambridge.org
On policy responsiveness: conditions for effective demand and supply | Journal of Public Policy | Cambridge Core
On policy responsiveness: conditions for effective demand and supply - Volume 46 Issue 2
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Stata folks, would you mind spreading the word? TYSM! @profsamperry.bsky.social @metacognishane.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @sgadarian.bsky.social @lilymasonphd.bsky.social @juliewronski.bsky.social @polpsychangel.bsky.social @mirya.bsky.social @asjadnaqvi.bsky.social @cbwlezien.bsky.social
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Another blockbuster from @pewresearch.org, on whether silicon samples can accurately simulate human survey respondent answers. They can’t.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/04/2026
Good post from Krugman on the economic vibes again, esp the last chart: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-vibes-... In my piece last week I shared a new paper from Chris Wlezien and Derek Epp at UT Austin showing exactly what he theorizes, that people respond to inflation more in good times vs bad:
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Stuart Soroka @snsoroka.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
I am excited about this new paper, Negativity & Misinformation, just out with @cbwlezien.bsky.social in @polcommjournal.bsky.social: "durable biases in information processing, by media organizations and humans more generally, can produce misinformation and misperceptions..." doi.org/10.1080/1058...
doi.org
Negativity and Misinformation
There are large and growing bodies of research highlighting inaccuracies in news coverage. In this paper, we suggest that negativity biases account for a substantial portion of longstanding inaccur...
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
1. Shoot people like dogs 2. Unrest 3. Martial law The plan is that transparent. Don’t let them
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
New Fox News poll shows Trump's approval on: Border Security: +2 Crime and public safety: -5 Immigration: -10 Foreign Policy: -15 Economy: -22 Healthcare: -25 Spending: -25 Tariffs: -28 static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...
static.foxnews.com
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Senator Ruben Gallego Has Three Words for Democrats
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 04/10/2025
Source: news.gallup.com/poll/695762/...
news.gallup.com
Trust in Media at New Low of 28% in U.S.
Americans' trust in newspapers, television and radio to report the news fully, accurately and fairly is at a new low of 28%.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Importantly, one can worry about what's happening AND think so-called "cancel culture" had pernicious/harmful aspects (as I do). But remarkable how few people do both and how disproportionate elite media attention is. Also, shouldn't we worry more when the state is wielding these powers?
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
"NBC News obtained a copy of a memo... summarizing the poll results. It was conducted by veteran Republican pollsters... and concluded 'that there is broad unity across party lines supporting vaccines such as measles (MMR), shingles, tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis (TDAP), and Hepatitis B.'"
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
prospect.org/economy/2025...
prospect.org
What the Economy Really Looks Like
When you factor in all the data points, we have an anxious workforce, a business sector seeking opportunity in inflation, and an avalanche of bad policy bearing down on everyone.
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
Public opinion on social spending in the U.S. has long been known to shift in parallel across policy areas — but why? Here's an article with Steven van Hauwaert and Ryan Carlin that provides some answers, and it's open access: cup.org/3HdCwX3
cup.org
What moves (spending) mood? The nature and origins of parallel public preferences | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
What moves (spending) mood? The nature and origins of parallel public preferences
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
Timea Balogh @tbalogh.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Our paper (w/ wonderful co-authors @rwillh11.bsky.social, @simonweschle.bsky.social, @cbwlezien.bsky.social, and Jim Adams) is now out in print! 🎉 May be of interest to those studying electoral behavior, party strategy, or how citizens use information! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Does political sophistication moderate how citizens use information to infer left-right distances between parties?
Research identifies numerous factors associated with citizens’ perceptions of party ideologies, including the Left-Right orientations of parties’ election manifestos, governing coalition arrangemen...
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
💥Viktor Orbán’s demographic strategy is a disaster. Over the past decade, 37.8% of Hungary’s population decline was due to emigration to other EU countries. Hungary is losing the competition to retain its own citizens while birth rates tank. Read Direkt36's in-depth article on @vsquare.bsky.social👇
vsquare.org
Inside Viktor Orbán’s Failure to Achieve His Demographic Goal - VSquare.org
The Prime Minister has long said that he would like to grow the population of Hungary without bringing in immigrants. Recently, births have fallen, but the number of people leaving the country has als...
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Another survey that shows a rebound in support for higher education. @cbwlezien.bsky.social www.insidehighered.com/news/student...
insidehighered.com
Americans Recognize Nuances of Higher Ed’s Value
New data shows that confidence in higher education is on the rise and most Americans, regardless of party affiliation, share a similar vision for what colleges should prioritize.
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Mads Andreas Elkjær @madselk.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Our paper (w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social) is now in print! Perhaps of interest to survey researchers contemplating whether/how to use the DK response option when measuring the public's policy preferences. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Estimating public opinion from surveys: the impact of including a “don't know” response option in policy preference questions | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Estimating public opinion from surveys: the impact of including a “don't know” response option in policy preference questions - Volume 13 Issue 3
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Gallup has new polling on immigration. Topline findings: -Americans hate Trump's immigration policy (35% approve, 62% disapprove) -Share who say immigration is a "good thing" for the country just hit an all-time high (79%) news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
4 polls out today on the GOP budget bill Post-Ipsos: 23% support/42% oppose/34% no opin KFF: 35% favorable/64% unfave Pew: 29% favor/49% oppose/21% not sure Economist/YouGov: 35%-51% support-oppose www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... www.kff.org/medicaid/pol... www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
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Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Most literature reviews miss the point.
 Not because they’re sloppy. 
But because they treat the literature like a box to tick. In my latest Respect the Marble Post, I carve out a 6-step process to writing a meaningful lit review: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/most-liter... 🧵
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
Most Literature Reviews Miss the Point. Don’t Let Yours
Critically Engaging Past Work to Confidently Shape Your Own
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Must read. Incredible and thoughtful first-person account. Surprisingly, the most shocking part is not journalists and college professors being arrested. It’s police trapping the crowd—giving a disperse order while blocking all the exits. via @smotus.bsky.social smotus.substack.com/p/arrested-i...
smotus.substack.com
Arrested in L.A.
My interview with a fellow scholar who was recently arrested for participating in an anti-ICE protest
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
This is the type of behavior that impunity creates. It has always existed within law enforcement, but is strengthened when political leaders encourage and protect it and the state doesn't hold the perpetrators (order-givers and -executioners) accountable.
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Jon Mellon @jonmellon.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
LLMs may sometimes act like humans because they’ve read the social science research telling them how they’re expected to act
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system. (Via the indispensable @austinkocher.com) austinkocher.substack.com/p/immigratio...
austinkocher.substack.com
Immigration Judges Closed and Denied More Asylum Cases in March Than Any Month on Record
In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system.
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Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
So he's... defunding the police?
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
BREAKING: Federal judge finds that Trump exceeded his authority in his Alien Enemies Act proclamation addressing alleged members of Tren de Aragua, issuing a permanent injunction barring AEA proclamation-based removals from the Southern District of Texas.
Neither the Court nor the parties question the Executive Branch's authority and
responsibility to enforce federal laws and, along with local law enforcement agencies, to protect
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Case 1:25-cv-00072
Document 58
Filed on 05/01/25 in TXSD
Page 2 of 36
the nation's population. Neither the Court nor the parties question that the Executive Branch can
direct the detention and removal of aliens who engage in criminal activity in the United States.
The Executive Branch has and will continue to rely on the Immigration and Nationality Act to
remove aliens found to represent a danger to the country. The question that this lawsuit presents is whether the President can utilize a specific statute, the AEA, to detain and remove Venezuelan aliens who are members of TdA. As to that question, the historical record renders clear that the President's invocation of the AEA through the Proclamation exceeds the scope of the statute and is contrary to the plain, ordinary meaning of the statute's terms. As a result, the Court concludes
that as a matter of law, the Executive Branch cannot rely on the AEA, based on the Proclamation,
to detain the Named Petitioners and the certified class, or to remove them from the country.'Case 1:25-cv-00072
Document 59
Filed on 05/01/25 in TXSD Page 1 of 1
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS
BROWNSVILLE DIVISION
ENTERED
May 01, 2025
Nathan Ochsner, Clerk
J.A.V., et al.,
Petitioners,
son con con
VS.
CIVIL ACTION NO. 1:25-CV-072
DONALD J. TRUMP, et al.,
Respondents.
FINAL JUDGMENT AND PERMANENT INJUNCTION
In accordance with the Court's Order and Opinion granting class certification (Doc. 57)
and its Order and Opinion granting summary judgment (Doc. 58), the Court enters final judgment in favor of Petitioners J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class. Accordingly, it is:
ORDERED that the Class Petition for Writ of Habeas Corpus (Doc. 1) is GRANTED; and
ORDERED that Respondents are permanently enjoined from detaining, transferring, or
removing J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class, under the Alien Enemies
Act, 50 U.S.C. § 21, and based on the Presidential Proclamation, "Invocation of the Alien Enemies
Act Regarding the Invasion of the United States by Tren de Aragua," 90 Fed. Reg. 13033.
This permanent injunction does not prohibit Respondents from proceeding with removal
proceedings or otherwise acting against J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified
class, based on the Immigration and Nationality Act, including under any final order of removal.
This Final Judgment and Permanent Injunction does not enjoin Respondent Donald
Trump in his official duties as President of the United States. See Franklin v. Massachusetts, 505
U.S. 788, 802 (1992).
Signed on May 1, 2025.
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Femendo Rodiguez, Ja.
Fernando Rodriguez, Jr.
United States District Judge
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
David is absolutely right. If I may add: a nostalgic fantasy about a time that never existed. Even 100 years ago socialist parties could not win majorities against liberals and progressives. A siginifcant share of workers always supported the right and this coalition was necessary and successful.
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LSE US Politics and Policy blog - USAPP @lseusablog.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Trump’s complete control over policy may be leading to actions the public – and his supporters – don’t want write @jackmaedgen.bsky.social, @snsoroka.bsky.social and @cbwlezien.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...
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60 Minutes @60minutes.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
And now, a note on Bill Owens who, until this past week, was the executive producer of 60 Minutes. We’ll be back next week with another edition of 60 Minutes.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Trump denies disaster aid, tells states to do more. FEMA has denied federal assistance for tornadoes in Arkansas, flooding in WV, and a windstorm in Washington state. It also has refused NC’s request for extended relief funding in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. stateline.org/2025/04/25/t...
stateline.org
Trump denies disaster aid, tells states to do more • Stateline
In the wake of recent natural disasters, state leaders across the country are finding that emergency support from the federal government is no longer a given.
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Lisa Fazio @lkfazio.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Can confirm that my NSF grant "How False Beliefs Form & How to Correct Them" was cancelled today because it is "not in alignment with current NSF priorities" Shocking that understanding how people are misled by false information is now a forbidden topic. Our work will continue but at a smaller scale
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Joe Ura @joeura.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
Exiling people beyond the protection of US law without due process is not only unconstitutional, it's a rejection of the entire American revolutionary project. Sending people "beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences" is one of the grievances enumerated in the Declaration of Independence.
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Research & Politics @respol.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
@hjghassell.bsky.social & @cbwlezien.bsky.social examine the effects of providing public opinion information to journalists on their perceptions of the newsworthiness of different topics. Public opinion has some effect on journalists' perceptions, especially for low salience issues. Read more:
doi.org
Public opinion and the news: Polls and journalists’ perceptions of issue importance - Hans J.G. Hassell, Christopher Wlezien, 2025
Most work on the media and the public starts from the premise that coverage influences opinion and behavior. We report results of a field experiment attempting ...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
A parliamentary coalition would risk collapse, but we are stuck until January 20, 2029 unless Congressional Republicans suddenly grow vertebrae.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Congratulations, boss, you've done it: You're bigger than covid.
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
In case you missed it... www.france24.com/en/americas/...
france24.com
'Deplorable': French scientist denied US entry over text messages criticising Trump
French officials have expressed their dismay after a French scientist was denied entry into the United States because immigration officers found text messages containing a "personal opinion" about the...
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.
Title: Both Liberal and Conservative Judges Rule Against Trump
Description: A scatter plot showing the rulings of judges against or in favor of Trump, categorized by ideology using the DIME score. The x-axis represents Judge Ideology (DIME Score), ranging from liberal (-1) to conservative (1), and the y-axis represents the case outcome (against or for Trump).
	•	Blue dots represent liberal judges, purple dots represent moderate judges, and red dots represent conservative judges.
	•	Some judges are labeled, including Rudolph Contreras, Lauren King, John Coughenour, and James Emanuel Boasberg on the liberal to moderate side, and Carl Nichols, Richard J. Leon, and Joseph N. Laplante on the conservative side.
	•	A note mentions that Boasberg, though slightly right-leaning, was initially appointed by George W. Bush.
	•	The visualization suggests that judges from both ideological backgrounds ruled against Trump.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Trump cases: Dropped. January 6 cases: Dropped. "For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law"
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
In case you missed it... www.reuters.com/world/us/hou...
reuters.com
House Republicans block Congress' ability to challenge Trump tariffs
The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives voted on Tuesday to block the ability of Congress to quickly challenge tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump that have rattled financial markets.
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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
Timea Balogh @tbalogh.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
🚨🎉Very excited to share our new paper with @rwillh11.bsky.social, James Adams, @simonweschle.bsky.social, and @cbwlezien.bsky.social!! Out today @JEPOP www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... A short thread 🧵 1/n
tandfonline.com
Does political sophistication moderate how citizens use information to infer left-right distances between parties?
Research identifies numerous factors associated with citizens’ perceptions of party ideologies, including the Left-Right orientations of parties’ election manifestos, governing coalition arrangemen...
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
www.wsj.com/economy/the-...
wsj.com
The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy
The high quality of recent economic growth should put a wind at the back of the White House’s next occupant.
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Research & Politics @respol.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
@hjghassell.bsky.social & @cbwlezien.bsky.social examine the effects of providing public opinion information to journalists on their perceptions of the newsworthiness of different topics. Public opinion has some effect on journalists' perceptions, especially for low salience issues. Read more:
doi.org
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
I'm increasingly convinced that while the courts may temporarily stabilize some of the current chaos, they are not going to act when the Executive chooses to ignore them (case in point: bsky.app/profile/beth...) and that the ONLY lever is making Republicans scared enough about re-election to act
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R. Michael Alvarez @rmichaelalvarez.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
American science is under attack, likely to cause significant harms to our economy, national security, and scientific progress. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump Wants to Destroy All Academia, Not Just the Woke Parts
The administration’s war on universities defies rational self-interest.
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Nate Kelly @natekelly.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Teeing up the opportunity for SCOTUS to declare this all legal. To be clear, it is not constitutional whether SCOTUS says so or not for President to usurp Article 1 powers from congress without specific delegation of that power by congress.
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Hoodlum 🇺🇸 @nothoodlum.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
The Pentagon is doubling the number of media outlets losing their workspaces. OUT: The New York Times, The Washington Post, NBC, CNN, Politico, The Hill, The War Zone, and NPR. IN: New York Post, The Washington Examiner, OANN, Newsmax, The Free Press, The Daily Caller, and Breitbart.
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