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Chris Wlezien

@cbwlezien.bsky.social
2.5K followers 533 following 39 posts

Student of politics, first gen, Chicagoan, Austinite, Longhorn...

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Reposted by Chris Wlezien
John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Many thanks to @verasight.io for interviewing me about my recent research w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social ! Had fun discussing how the public (mis)understands inflation information, and why it matters 👍
youtu.be
How do people process inflation news? The Effects of Inflation Information
YouTube video by Verasight
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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Excited to share this fully revamped WP w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social on the effects of information about economic inflation on people's economic & political attitudes. Lots of great data from @verasight.io, two of my favorite experimental designs ever, plus some extra-fun @stata.bsky.social graphs! 😁
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
New working paper from Stuart Perrett, @drjennings.bsky.social , @jonmellon.bsky.social , @cbwlezien.bsky.social and me: Do polls underestimate support for right-wing parties? Assessing variation in polling error by party family osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
If u wouldn't mind spreading the word, I'd really appreciate it. Thank u! 🙏 @johnholbein1.bsky.social @juliaazari.bsky.social @juliewronski.bsky.social, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social @cbwlezien.bsky.social @dhopkins1776.bsky.social @yamilrvelez.bsky.social @akoustov.bsky.social @adamberinsky.bsky.social
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
A new publication of possible interest with @snsoroka.bsky.social on the relationship between negativity bias in media coverage and misinformation: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Negativity and Misinformation
There are large and growing bodies of research highlighting inaccuracies in news coverage. In this paper, we suggest that negativity biases account for a substantial portion of longstanding inaccur...
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Fantastic new, Will; cheers to you for all that you have accomplished!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Here's a little something that might interest a number of you in my network, part of a forum in the Journal of Public Policy: www.cambridge.org/core/journal.... Many thanks to editor Josh Ryan and the commentators Samuel Bagg, Tara Grillos, Agustin Markarian, and Mary Scudder!
cambridge.org
On policy responsiveness: conditions for effective demand and supply | Journal of Public Policy | Cambridge Core
On policy responsiveness: conditions for effective demand and supply - Volume 46 Issue 2
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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Stata folks, would you mind spreading the word? TYSM! @profsamperry.bsky.social @metacognishane.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @sgadarian.bsky.social @lilymasonphd.bsky.social @juliewronski.bsky.social @polpsychangel.bsky.social @mirya.bsky.social @asjadnaqvi.bsky.social @cbwlezien.bsky.social
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Another blockbuster from @pewresearch.org, on whether silicon samples can accurately simulate human survey respondent answers. They can’t.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/04/2026
Good post from Krugman on the economic vibes again, esp the last chart: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-vibes-... In my piece last week I shared a new paper from Chris Wlezien and Derek Epp at UT Austin showing exactly what he theorizes, that people respond to inflation more in good times vs bad:
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Stuart Soroka @snsoroka.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
I am excited about this new paper, Negativity & Misinformation, just out with @cbwlezien.bsky.social in @polcommjournal.bsky.social: "durable biases in information processing, by media organizations and humans more generally, can produce misinformation and misperceptions..." doi.org/10.1080/1058...
doi.org
Negativity and Misinformation
There are large and growing bodies of research highlighting inaccuracies in news coverage. In this paper, we suggest that negativity biases account for a substantial portion of longstanding inaccur...
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
1. Shoot people like dogs 2. Unrest 3. Martial law The plan is that transparent. Don’t let them
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Hey! Maybe part of the story...
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
How cool; congrat's Miranda, and looking to see book on best sellers lists!
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
New Fox News poll shows Trump's approval on: Border Security: +2 Crime and public safety: -5 Immigration: -10 Foreign Policy: -15 Economy: -22 Healthcare: -25 Spending: -25 Tariffs: -28 static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...
static.foxnews.com
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Thx and looking forward to reading!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Thx both; preferences change, and parallel (partisan) publics is a thing, yes?
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Cheers to you, Zeynep!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Senator Ruben Gallego Has Three Words for Democrats
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 04/10/2025
Source: news.gallup.com/poll/695762/...
news.gallup.com
Trust in Media at New Low of 28% in U.S.
Americans' trust in newspapers, television and radio to report the news fully, accurately and fairly is at a new low of 28%.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Importantly, one can worry about what's happening AND think so-called "cancel culture" had pernicious/harmful aspects (as I do). But remarkable how few people do both and how disproportionate elite media attention is. Also, shouldn't we worry more when the state is wielding these powers?
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
"NBC News obtained a copy of a memo... summarizing the poll results. It was conducted by veteran Republican pollsters... and concluded 'that there is broad unity across party lines supporting vaccines such as measles (MMR), shingles, tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis (TDAP), and Hepatitis B.'"
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
prospect.org/economy/2025...
prospect.org
What the Economy Really Looks Like
When you factor in all the data points, we have an anxious workforce, a business sector seeking opportunity in inflation, and an avalanche of bad policy bearing down on everyone.
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 16/08/2025
Public opinion on social spending in the U.S. has long been known to shift in parallel across policy areas — but why? Here's an article with Steven van Hauwaert and Ryan Carlin that provides some answers, and it's open access: cup.org/3HdCwX3
cup.org
What moves (spending) mood? The nature and origins of parallel public preferences | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
What moves (spending) mood? The nature and origins of parallel public preferences
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Timea Balogh @tbalogh.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Our paper (w/ wonderful co-authors @rwillh11.bsky.social, @simonweschle.bsky.social, @cbwlezien.bsky.social, and Jim Adams) is now out in print! 🎉 May be of interest to those studying electoral behavior, party strategy, or how citizens use information! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Does political sophistication moderate how citizens use information to infer left-right distances between parties?
Research identifies numerous factors associated with citizens’ perceptions of party ideologies, including the Left-Right orientations of parties’ election manifestos, governing coalition arrangemen...
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Szabolcs Panyi @szabolcspanyi.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
💥Viktor Orbán’s demographic strategy is a disaster. Over the past decade, 37.8% of Hungary’s population decline was due to emigration to other EU countries. Hungary is losing the competition to retain its own citizens while birth rates tank. Read Direkt36's in-depth article on @vsquare.bsky.social👇
vsquare.org
Inside Viktor Orbán’s Failure to Achieve His Demographic Goal - VSquare.org
The Prime Minister has long said that he would like to grow the population of Hungary without bringing in immigrants. Recently, births have fallen, but the number of people leaving the country has als...
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David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Another survey that shows a rebound in support for higher education. @cbwlezien.bsky.social www.insidehighered.com/news/student...
insidehighered.com
Americans Recognize Nuances of Higher Ed’s Value
New data shows that confidence in higher education is on the rise and most Americans, regardless of party affiliation, share a similar vision for what colleges should prioritize.
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Mads Andreas Elkjær @madselk.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Our paper (w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social) is now in print! Perhaps of interest to survey researchers contemplating whether/how to use the DK response option when measuring the public's policy preferences. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Estimating public opinion from surveys: the impact of including a “don't know” response option in policy preference questions | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Estimating public opinion from surveys: the impact of including a “don't know” response option in policy preference questions - Volume 13 Issue 3
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
Gallup has new polling on immigration. Topline findings: -Americans hate Trump's immigration policy (35% approve, 62% disapprove) -Share who say immigration is a "good thing" for the country just hit an all-time high (79%) news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
4 polls out today on the GOP budget bill Post-Ipsos: 23% support/42% oppose/34% no opin KFF: 35% favorable/64% unfave Pew: 29% favor/49% oppose/21% not sure Economist/YouGov: 35%-51% support-oppose www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... www.kff.org/medicaid/pol... www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 03/07/2025
Cheers to you, Chris!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Cheers to you, ha ha!
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Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Most literature reviews miss the point.
 Not because they’re sloppy. 
But because they treat the literature like a box to tick. In my latest Respect the Marble Post, I carve out a 6-step process to writing a meaningful lit review: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/most-liter... 🧵
catherineeunicedevries.substack.com
Most Literature Reviews Miss the Point. Don’t Let Yours
Critically Engaging Past Work to Confidently Shape Your Own
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Must read. Incredible and thoughtful first-person account. Surprisingly, the most shocking part is not journalists and college professors being arrested. It’s police trapping the crowd—giving a disperse order while blocking all the exits. via @smotus.bsky.social smotus.substack.com/p/arrested-i...
smotus.substack.com
Arrested in L.A.
My interview with a fellow scholar who was recently arrested for participating in an anti-ICE protest
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
This is the type of behavior that impunity creates. It has always existed within law enforcement, but is strengthened when political leaders encourage and protect it and the state doesn't hold the perpetrators (order-givers and -executioners) accountable.
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Jon Mellon @jonmellon.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
LLMs may sometimes act like humans because they’ve read the social science research telling them how they’re expected to act
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Thx for post(s), but wonder if the closeness is key, i.e., "closer (and less predictable)"...?
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system. (Via the indispensable @austinkocher.com) austinkocher.substack.com/p/immigratio...
austinkocher.substack.com
Immigration Judges Closed and Denied More Asylum Cases in March Than Any Month on Record
In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system.
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
Hi and thx, and sorry for delay in response; graduation weekend here. Could see thermostatic public response in preferences for more/less policy/spending, but that doesn't happen magically, of course. Not sure that's the focus of the question about "approval;" let me know, ok?
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Miranda Yaver @mirandayaver.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
So he's... defunding the police?
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
BREAKING: Federal judge finds that Trump exceeded his authority in his Alien Enemies Act proclamation addressing alleged members of Tren de Aragua, issuing a permanent injunction barring AEA proclamation-based removals from the Southern District of Texas.
Neither the Court nor the parties question the Executive Branch's authority and
responsibility to enforce federal laws and, along with local law enforcement agencies, to protect
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Case 1:25-cv-00072
Document 58
Filed on 05/01/25 in TXSD
Page 2 of 36
the nation's population. Neither the Court nor the parties question that the Executive Branch can
direct the detention and removal of aliens who engage in criminal activity in the United States.
The Executive Branch has and will continue to rely on the Immigration and Nationality Act to
remove aliens found to represent a danger to the country. The question that this lawsuit presents is whether the President can utilize a specific statute, the AEA, to detain and remove Venezuelan aliens who are members of TdA. As to that question, the historical record renders clear that the President's invocation of the AEA through the Proclamation exceeds the scope of the statute and is contrary to the plain, ordinary meaning of the statute's terms. As a result, the Court concludes
that as a matter of law, the Executive Branch cannot rely on the AEA, based on the Proclamation,
to detain the Named Petitioners and the certified class, or to remove them from the country.'Case 1:25-cv-00072
Document 59
Filed on 05/01/25 in TXSD Page 1 of 1
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS
BROWNSVILLE DIVISION
ENTERED
May 01, 2025
Nathan Ochsner, Clerk
J.A.V., et al.,
Petitioners,
son con con
VS.
CIVIL ACTION NO. 1:25-CV-072
DONALD J. TRUMP, et al.,
Respondents.
FINAL JUDGMENT AND PERMANENT INJUNCTION
In accordance with the Court's Order and Opinion granting class certification (Doc. 57)
and its Order and Opinion granting summary judgment (Doc. 58), the Court enters final judgment in favor of Petitioners J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class. Accordingly, it is:
ORDERED that the Class Petition for Writ of Habeas Corpus (Doc. 1) is GRANTED; and
ORDERED that Respondents are permanently enjoined from detaining, transferring, or
removing J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified class, under the Alien Enemies
Act, 50 U.S.C. § 21, and based on the Presidential Proclamation, "Invocation of the Alien Enemies
Act Regarding the Invasion of the United States by Tren de Aragua," 90 Fed. Reg. 13033.
This permanent injunction does not prohibit Respondents from proceeding with removal
proceedings or otherwise acting against J.A.V., J.G.G., W.G.H., and the members of the certified
class, based on the Immigration and Nationality Act, including under any final order of removal.
This Final Judgment and Permanent Injunction does not enjoin Respondent Donald
Trump in his official duties as President of the United States. See Franklin v. Massachusetts, 505
U.S. 788, 802 (1992).
Signed on May 1, 2025.
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Femendo Rodiguez, Ja.
Fernando Rodriguez, Jr.
United States District Judge
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
David is absolutely right. If I may add: a nostalgic fantasy about a time that never existed. Even 100 years ago socialist parties could not win majorities against liberals and progressives. A siginifcant share of workers always supported the right and this coalition was necessary and successful.
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LSE US Politics and Policy blog - USAPP @lseusablog.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Trump’s complete control over policy may be leading to actions the public – and his supporters – don’t want write @jackmaedgen.bsky.social, @snsoroka.bsky.social and @cbwlezien.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Wrecking the economy is easier than it looks?
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Maybe, but this is moving off the thread I joined about public reactions and promises, and now back to day job; thx!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
To me, those who "float," per Zaller, or could do, and sure looks like prices and immigration mattered to them, at least some/many of them, not that they're all or most of what matters to politicians!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Get that and might be right, but also may be that the average voter just was looking for more reliable border control. Could be testable, yes?!
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Thx David and agree, but are those promises the reason(s) he won?
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Chris Wlezien @cbwlezien.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
Yes, but interesting variation across issues...
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60 Minutes @60minutes.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
And now, a note on Bill Owens who, until this past week, was the executive producer of 60 Minutes. We’ll be back next week with another edition of 60 Minutes.
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