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Scott Clement

@sfcpoll.bsky.social
2K followers 436 following 761 posts

Washington Post Polling Director. Writes The Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pol… Email scott.clement@washpost.com Post poll results archive: wapo.st/pollarchive

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Reposted by Scott Clement
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Key point: "the last 3 presidential elections showed varying levels of pro-Democratic bias in polls, on average. But House and Senate pre-election polls showed very little bias in the two midterms of the Trump era: 2018 and 2022. "
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Matt DeLong @mattdelong.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I don't think people really appreciate the gravity of what is happening in the news industry. If you value getting reliable information from the news orgs you depend on, you need to support them with your dollars or they could disappear. This isn't hyperbole. It's happening right now in real time.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I loved digging into historical exit polls for this - In 2006, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) won reelection with 74 percent of the vote, even as only 34 percent of voters approved of President George W. Bush.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
How much can Republicans outrun Trump’s approval ratings? I take a look in this week's Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
The Pollwatcher: How much can Republicans outrun Trump’s approval ratings?
Plus: Can AI replace human poll respondents?
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
You still have 22 minutes to sign up for The Pollwatcher before this week's newsletter goes out (it's free!) www.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/...
washingtonpost.com
The Pollwatcher
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Virginia's 1st district (the fightin' first!) is a key bellwether. It voted for Trump by 4.9 points in 2024, puts it smack in the middle of all 435 congressional districts this year, according to UVA's @kkondik.bsky.social . What better place to conduct a poll? www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
We polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats.
Democrat Shannon Taylor is narrowly ahead of Rep. Rob Wittman (R) in Virginia's 1st, while Democrat Tom Perriello is modestly behind Rep. John McGuire (R) in the 5th.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Virginia polls close relatively early on election night and Virginia counts relatively quickly, so these are good ones to watch to see how the night is trending
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
We polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats. Story with @schneidergs.bsky.social based on new Washington Post-Schar School polling. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
We polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats.
Democrat Shannon Taylor is narrowly ahead of Rep. Rob Wittman (R) in Virginia's 1st, while Democrat Tom Perriello is modestly behind Rep. John McGuire (R) in the 5th.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Anyone have a time turner I can borrow?
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Reposted by Scott Clement
Dan Diamond @ddiamond.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New: the White House is reopening part of Lafayette Square, the public park across the street, after fencing it off 8 months ago. White House official tells The Post that Secret Service is balancing public access against security risks to Trump, and a formal update is coming soon.
washingtonpost.com
White House to reopen part of Lafayette Square after eight months
Administration officials are still pursuing plans to build a permanent fence around the park.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 … That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding."
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Emily Guskin @emgusk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Ahhhhh excerpt from Emily’s book!!!
washingtonpost.com
The night that changed everything for 14-year-old Taylor Swift
A new book from The Post’s Emily Yahr features exclusive reporting about the musician’s path to landing a record deal.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Approval ratings are baked into the midterm election pie by February, so why do polls tend to shift against the president’s party as the election gets closer? I asked political scientist Chris Wlezien www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
The Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm elections
Plus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate?
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Reposted by Scott Clement
Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Thanks to @sfcpoll.bsky.social for including my thoughts on "how you know if the survey is real" www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
The Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm elections
Plus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate?
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm elections, in this week's Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
The Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm elections
Plus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate?
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Poll questions on which party people want to control the Senate are so hot right now (from Post-Schar School Michigan poll and NYT-Siena polls) www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms loom, while new CNN polling suggests fewer Republicans approve of Trump's handling of the war. From @danmerica.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms loom
Republicans in key battleground states are urging a speedy end to the war as new polling suggests only 1 in 4 Americans support it.
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Reposted by Scott Clement
Scott Nover @scottnover.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
BREAKING: TV pool will not be providing coverage of presidential events until further notice b/c of CNN's ban, pool chair and FOX News Washington Bureau Chief Bryan Boughton said. It's effectively a boycott by the fellow members — ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Wait, this isn't a series digging into the wonder of voter registration databases?
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
A Post reader questioned why our Michigan poll asked voters if they would support a Muslim *presidential* candidate when Abdul El-Sayed is running for U.S Senate. Love the question, here's why we did that -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Candidates matter, but they might yet vote for him! In 2024 Marylanders loved Larry Hogan so much they favored him for U.S. Senate in the spring. That flipped in the fall, moving towards their majority preference for a Democratic controlled Senate.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This week's Pollwatcher goes inside The Washington Post-Schar School poll on Michigan www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
The Pollwatcher: Inside The Washington Post-Schar School poll on Michigan
Plus: AI layoff fears and measles vaccine trust.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Six charts from our new Washington Post-Schar School Michigan poll - first up, three horseraces show Democratic Gov. candidate Jocelyn Benson leading by 12, voters prefer a Dem Senate by 8, while El-Sayed has a 3-point edge (within the range of sampling error) www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"Those with a negative view of both the Democratic and the Republican Party ("double haters") favor the Democratic candidate in their district by a 26-point margin." From the latest Fox News national poll www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
foxnews.com
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Just published: A Washington Post-Schar School poll finds a finds close Michigan Senate race. Here’s how El-Sayed lags his party. Full story -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
resources that are better than screenshotting a post made by "InteractivePolls at X dot com" and sharing that with your followers: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi... www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Un... just posting the big shrug emoji
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Smart story: GOP candidates are largely ignoring Trump’s midterm advice, Post analysis shows. From @ence.bsky.social @schneidergs.bsky.social @jeremybmerrill.com www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
GOP candidates are largely ignoring Trump’s midterm advice, Post analysis shows
A review of over a million social media messages reveals that Republicans haven’t heeded the president’s call to act like he’s on the ballot and promise $5,000 payouts.
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Caitlin Gilbert @caitlingilbert.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
icymi this banger of a story from Lydia Sidhom found that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have paid over $270 million to more than 270k doctors and other prescribers to promote their GLP-1 products since 2018!! That’s more docs than *every* other drug!!!
Bar chart showing the number of doctors that have received payments for different drugs between 2018-2025. Over 270k docs were paid to promote GLP-1s, larger than every other drug.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Seven simple tips to understand midterm election polls, in this week's Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Can't say it better than rock star military correspondent @danlamothe.bsky.social crookedmedia.substack.com/p/open-tabs-...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Also in this week's issue: The world now judges America based on Trump www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Independents aren’t just undercover partisans after all
Plus: Why people are drinking less, and who’s best friend is a chatbot?
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Reposted by Scott Clement
jacob galapagos @jacobgalapagos.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
It’s think for yourself thursday
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Just posted: Independents aren’t just undercover partisans after all. This week's Pollwatcher digs into new research on why people become political independents and what that means for politics and the midterms www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
Independents aren’t just undercover partisans after all
Plus: Why people are drinking less, and who’s best friend is a chatbot?
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
fyi The Post has a pretty good subscription deal right now, $20 for a whole year. $33 gets 3 extra accounts subscribe.washingtonpost.com
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Caitlin Gilbert @caitlingilbert.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Scooplet from me: the federal judge that blocked HHS’ new teen pregnancy prevention policy this month specifically criticized HHS for citing non-existent scientific evidence and potentially AI-generated citations to support their “body literacy” concept wapo.st/4gKELyw
wapo.st
Judge rebukes HHS over AI use in cutting teen pregnancy prevention grants
He wrote that grant solicitations for changes to funding reference public health studies that appear not to exist or do not support what they are cited for.
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Dan Vock @danvock.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
I apparently have a lot of work to do. (Gift link) wapo.st/4wPgxct
wapo.st
The 40 essential dishes of D.C.
These are the burgers, soups, sandwiches, pastries and more that best personify the delicious, diverse dining scene in and around D.C.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Trees are coming down by the dozen as Trump’s D.C. golf makeover nears. Great, in-depth reporting from @rickmaese.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/...
washingtonpost.com
Trees are coming down by the dozen as Trump’s D.C. golf makeover nears
The president’s promised overhaul of the East Potomac course has not officially begun, but tree removal has already been taking place for weeks.
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John Hudson @johnphudson.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
excellent column on the tyranny of "still or sparkling": "99% of the time, my fellow diners and I want filtered tap. We do not want to pay $11 for Evian, which tastes worse than filtered tap in most major cities" link.eater.com/view/6152239...
link.eater.com
View on web
View on web
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Karen Tumulty @ktumulty.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Terrific exclusive reporting from @lizcgoodwin.bsky.social and @oliviacgeorge.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
A former Mike Collins staffer posted KKK and Nazi images. Some Republicans see a pattern.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-Georgia) is challenging Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The former Collins staffer posted a swastika and shared an image of himself in what appear to be KKK robes.
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Danny Dougherty @dannydougherty.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The (sincerely) great thing about having pollsters as friends is they will just go out and write a newsletter that leads with a Public Opinion Quarterly article www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
We know you care about the environment because you’re sweating
A novel study compared the issues survey respondents said were important to their physiological reactions in a lab.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Do people honestly tell pollsters the issues they *really* care about? A trio of researchers in Canada hooked respondents up to sweat detectors to find out -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
We know you care about the environment because you’re sweating
A novel study compared the issues survey respondents said were important to their physiological reactions in a lab.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I'm really excited for the second Pollwatcher newsletter at 11 a.m. today on a fascinating study that hasn't gotten much attention. Get it free in your inbox -> www.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/...
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Matthew Hay Brown @matthewhaybrown.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
• Provided 300 million books to young people • Gave $12.5 million in stipends to families affected by wildfires • Paid tuition for all Dollywood employees pursuing college • Gave $1 million for covid vaccine development • Paid $500 to each Sevier County kid who finished high school • Wrote “Jolene”
washingtonpost.com
Dolly Parton, country music singer and cultural icon, dies at 80
With her rhinestones and blond bouffant, she carved out a singular place in American life as a musician, movie star, philanthropist and feminist heroine.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
"The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts will eventually have to be demolished unless President Donald Trump is allowed to save it, Justice Department lawyers representing the center argued in a court filing posted late Monday." www.washingtonpost.com/style/2026/0...
washingtonpost.com
DOJ says Kennedy Center could be demolished if Trump’s plans are blocked
The filing marks the first time President Donald Trump’s allies have explicitly raised the prospect that the Kennedy Center itself could be demolished.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
How accurate are AI writing detectors? Try to trick this one. Another delightful interactive story from @kevinschaul.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/technology/i...
washingtonpost.com
How accurate are AI writing detectors? Try to trick this one.
See what it takes to convince an AI writing detector that AI-generated text was written by a human.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
El-Sayed’s win triggered wave of anti-Muslim rhetoric online, a Washington Post analysis shows. Smart story from @praveenavsoma.bsky.social & Luke Connors www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
El-Sayed’s win triggered wave of anti-Muslim rhetoric online, Post analysis shows
After Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan, conservative commentary about him shifted focus from socialism to his Muslim identity.
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Washington Post Data Team @wpdatateam.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Republicans have now turned strongly against data centers, increasingly bringing up their downsides in their public posts and newsletters.
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Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 24/08/2026
In our spring survey, 35% of Canadians said the United States is a reliable partner to their country, down from 83% in 2022, the last time we asked this question.
Chart showing decreasing shares see the U.S. as a reliable partner.
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Scott Nover @scottnover.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
John Solomon, once a reporter for the Associated Press and The Washington Post, has in recent years become a prominent figure in pro-Trump media. His prize: a job in the White House. My profile of Solomon: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
How a dogged D.C. journalist became Trump’s investigative reporter in the White House
Once a reporter for the Associated Press and The Washington Post, Solomon veered rightward in his coverage. His prize: a job in Donald Trump’s White House.
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