Reposted by Scott ClementBrendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Key point: "the last 3 presidential elections showed varying levels of pro-Democratic bias in polls, on average. But House and Senate pre-election polls showed very little bias in the two midterms of the Trump era: 2018 and 2022. " 14621
Reposted by Scott ClementMatt DeLong @mattdelong.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I don't think people really appreciate the gravity of what is happening in the news industry. If you value getting reliable information from the news orgs you depend on, you need to support them with your dollars or they could disappear. This isn't hyperbole. It's happening right now in real time. 55322
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026I loved digging into historical exit polls for this - In 2006, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) won reelection with 74 percent of the vote, even as only 34 percent of voters approved of President George W. Bush. 020
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026How much can Republicans outrun Trump’s approval ratings? I take a look in this week's Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comThe Pollwatcher: How much can Republicans outrun Trump’s approval ratings?Plus: Can AI replace human poll respondents? 000
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026You still have 22 minutes to sign up for The Pollwatcher before this week's newsletter goes out (it's free!) www.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/...washingtonpost.comThe Pollwatcher 000
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Virginia's 1st district (the fightin' first!) is a key bellwether. It voted for Trump by 4.9 points in 2024, puts it smack in the middle of all 435 congressional districts this year, according to UVA's @kkondik.bsky.social . What better place to conduct a poll? www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comWe polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats.Democrat Shannon Taylor is narrowly ahead of Rep. Rob Wittman (R) in Virginia's 1st, while Democrat Tom Perriello is modestly behind Rep. John McGuire (R) in the 5th. 121
Reposted by Scott ClementKevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Virginia polls close relatively early on election night and Virginia counts relatively quickly, so these are good ones to watch to see how the night is trending 171
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026We polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats. Story with @schneidergs.bsky.social based on new Washington Post-Schar School polling. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comWe polled two must-watch House races. There are good signs for Democrats.Democrat Shannon Taylor is narrowly ahead of Rep. Rob Wittman (R) in Virginia's 1st, while Democrat Tom Perriello is modestly behind Rep. John McGuire (R) in the 5th. 021
Reposted by Scott ClementDan Diamond @ddiamond.bsky.social · 28/09/2026New: the White House is reopening part of Lafayette Square, the public park across the street, after fencing it off 8 months ago. White House official tells The Post that Secret Service is balancing public access against security risks to Trump, and a formal update is coming soon.washingtonpost.comWhite House to reopen part of Lafayette Square after eight monthsAdministration officials are still pursuing plans to build a permanent fence around the park. 3188
Reposted by Scott ClementNathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026"The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 … That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding." 5316
Reposted by Scott ClementEmily Guskin @emgusk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Ahhhhh excerpt from Emily’s book!!!washingtonpost.comThe night that changed everything for 14-year-old Taylor SwiftA new book from The Post’s Emily Yahr features exclusive reporting about the musician’s path to landing a record deal. 131
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Approval ratings are baked into the midterm election pie by February, so why do polls tend to shift against the president’s party as the election gets closer? I asked political scientist Chris Wlezien www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comThe Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm electionsPlus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate? 000
Reposted by Scott ClementKevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Thanks to @sfcpoll.bsky.social for including my thoughts on "how you know if the survey is real" www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comThe Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm electionsPlus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate? 041
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/09/2026The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm elections, in this week's Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comThe Pollwatcher: The big, unseen factor in how voters decide midterm electionsPlus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate? 100
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Poll questions on which party people want to control the Senate are so hot right now (from Post-Schar School Michigan poll and NYT-Siena polls) www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... www.nytimes.com/interactive/... 052
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Republican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms loom, while new CNN polling suggests fewer Republicans approve of Trump's handling of the war. From @danmerica.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comRepublican candidates are breaking with Trump on Iran as midterms loomRepublicans in key battleground states are urging a speedy end to the war as new polling suggests only 1 in 4 Americans support it. 010
Reposted by Scott ClementScott Nover @scottnover.bsky.social · 21/09/2026BREAKING: TV pool will not be providing coverage of presidential events until further notice b/c of CNN's ban, pool chair and FOX News Washington Bureau Chief Bryan Boughton said. It's effectively a boycott by the fellow members — ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202... 805149253703
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Wait, this isn't a series digging into the wonder of voter registration databases? 140
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 18/09/2026A Post reader questioned why our Michigan poll asked voters if they would support a Muslim *presidential* candidate when Abdul El-Sayed is running for U.S Senate. Love the question, here's why we did that -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 021
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Candidates matter, but they might yet vote for him! In 2024 Marylanders loved Larry Hogan so much they favored him for U.S. Senate in the spring. That flipped in the fall, moving towards their majority preference for a Democratic controlled Senate. 000
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026This week's Pollwatcher goes inside The Washington Post-Schar School poll on Michigan www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comThe Pollwatcher: Inside The Washington Post-Schar School poll on MichiganPlus: AI layoff fears and measles vaccine trust. 000
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Six charts from our new Washington Post-Schar School Michigan poll - first up, three horseraces show Democratic Gov. candidate Jocelyn Benson leading by 12, voters prefer a Dem Senate by 8, while El-Sayed has a 3-point edge (within the range of sampling error) www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 111
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026"Those with a negative view of both the Democratic and the Republican Party ("double haters") favor the Democratic candidate in their district by a 26-point margin." From the latest Fox News national poll www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...foxnews.com 010
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Just published: A Washington Post-Schar School poll finds a finds close Michigan Senate race. Here’s how El-Sayed lags his party. Full story -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 233
Reposted by Scott ClementAriel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026resources that are better than screenshotting a post made by "InteractivePolls at X dot com" and sharing that with your followers: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi... www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Un... just posting the big shrug emoji 12613
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Smart story: GOP candidates are largely ignoring Trump’s midterm advice, Post analysis shows. From @ence.bsky.social @schneidergs.bsky.social @jeremybmerrill.com www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comGOP candidates are largely ignoring Trump’s midterm advice, Post analysis showsA review of over a million social media messages reveals that Republicans haven’t heeded the president’s call to act like he’s on the ballot and promise $5,000 payouts. 042
Reposted by Scott ClementCaitlin Gilbert @caitlingilbert.bsky.social · 12/09/2026icymi this banger of a story from Lydia Sidhom found that Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have paid over $270 million to more than 270k doctors and other prescribers to promote their GLP-1 products since 2018!! That’s more docs than *every* other drug!!! 01112
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Seven simple tips to understand midterm election polls, in this week's Pollwatcher newsletter www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 022
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Can't say it better than rock star military correspondent @danlamothe.bsky.social crookedmedia.substack.com/p/open-tabs-... 010
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Also in this week's issue: The world now judges America based on Trump www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comIndependents aren’t just undercover partisans after allPlus: Why people are drinking less, and who’s best friend is a chatbot? 000
Reposted by Scott Clementjacob galapagos @jacobgalapagos.bsky.social · 03/09/2026It’s think for yourself thursday 241492353
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Just posted: Independents aren’t just undercover partisans after all. This week's Pollwatcher digs into new research on why people become political independents and what that means for politics and the midterms www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comIndependents aren’t just undercover partisans after allPlus: Why people are drinking less, and who’s best friend is a chatbot? 033
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 03/09/2026fyi The Post has a pretty good subscription deal right now, $20 for a whole year. $33 gets 3 extra accounts subscribe.washingtonpost.com 022
Reposted by Scott ClementCaitlin Gilbert @caitlingilbert.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Scooplet from me: the federal judge that blocked HHS’ new teen pregnancy prevention policy this month specifically criticized HHS for citing non-existent scientific evidence and potentially AI-generated citations to support their “body literacy” concept wapo.st/4gKELywwapo.stJudge rebukes HHS over AI use in cutting teen pregnancy prevention grantsHe wrote that grant solicitations for changes to funding reference public health studies that appear not to exist or do not support what they are cited for. 28833
Reposted by Scott ClementDan Vock @danvock.bsky.social · 29/08/2026I apparently have a lot of work to do. (Gift link) wapo.st/4wPgxctwapo.stThe 40 essential dishes of D.C.These are the burgers, soups, sandwiches, pastries and more that best personify the delicious, diverse dining scene in and around D.C. 031
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Trees are coming down by the dozen as Trump’s D.C. golf makeover nears. Great, in-depth reporting from @rickmaese.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2026/...washingtonpost.comTrees are coming down by the dozen as Trump’s D.C. golf makeover nearsThe president’s promised overhaul of the East Potomac course has not officially begun, but tree removal has already been taking place for weeks. 134
Reposted by Scott ClementJohn Hudson @johnphudson.bsky.social · 27/08/2026excellent column on the tyranny of "still or sparkling": "99% of the time, my fellow diners and I want filtered tap. We do not want to pay $11 for Evian, which tastes worse than filtered tap in most major cities" link.eater.com/view/6152239...link.eater.comView on webView on web 041
Reposted by Scott ClementKaren Tumulty @ktumulty.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Terrific exclusive reporting from @lizcgoodwin.bsky.social and @oliviacgeorge.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comA former Mike Collins staffer posted KKK and Nazi images. Some Republicans see a pattern.Rep. Mike Collins (R-Georgia) is challenging Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The former Collins staffer posted a swastika and shared an image of himself in what appear to be KKK robes. 084
Reposted by Scott ClementDanny Dougherty @dannydougherty.bsky.social · 27/08/2026The (sincerely) great thing about having pollsters as friends is they will just go out and write a newsletter that leads with a Public Opinion Quarterly article www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comWe know you care about the environment because you’re sweatingA novel study compared the issues survey respondents said were important to their physiological reactions in a lab. 111
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Do people honestly tell pollsters the issues they *really* care about? A trio of researchers in Canada hooked respondents up to sweat detectors to find out -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comWe know you care about the environment because you’re sweatingA novel study compared the issues survey respondents said were important to their physiological reactions in a lab. 011
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 27/08/2026I'm really excited for the second Pollwatcher newsletter at 11 a.m. today on a fascinating study that hasn't gotten much attention. Get it free in your inbox -> www.washingtonpost.com/newsletters/... 112
Reposted by Scott ClementMatthew Hay Brown @matthewhaybrown.bsky.social · 25/08/2026• Provided 300 million books to young people • Gave $12.5 million in stipends to families affected by wildfires • Paid tuition for all Dollywood employees pursuing college • Gave $1 million for covid vaccine development • Paid $500 to each Sevier County kid who finished high school • Wrote “Jolene”washingtonpost.comDolly Parton, country music singer and cultural icon, dies at 80With her rhinestones and blond bouffant, she carved out a singular place in American life as a musician, movie star, philanthropist and feminist heroine. 10465130
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 25/08/2026"The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts will eventually have to be demolished unless President Donald Trump is allowed to save it, Justice Department lawyers representing the center argued in a court filing posted late Monday." www.washingtonpost.com/style/2026/0...washingtonpost.comDOJ says Kennedy Center could be demolished if Trump’s plans are blockedThe filing marks the first time President Donald Trump’s allies have explicitly raised the prospect that the Kennedy Center itself could be demolished. 010
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 25/08/2026How accurate are AI writing detectors? Try to trick this one. Another delightful interactive story from @kevinschaul.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/technology/i...washingtonpost.comHow accurate are AI writing detectors? Try to trick this one.See what it takes to convince an AI writing detector that AI-generated text was written by a human. 010
Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 24/08/2026El-Sayed’s win triggered wave of anti-Muslim rhetoric online, a Washington Post analysis shows. Smart story from @praveenavsoma.bsky.social & Luke Connors www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...washingtonpost.comEl-Sayed’s win triggered wave of anti-Muslim rhetoric online, Post analysis showsAfter Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate nomination in Michigan, conservative commentary about him shifted focus from socialism to his Muslim identity. 033
Reposted by Scott ClementWashington Post Data Team @wpdatateam.bsky.social · 24/08/2026Republicans have now turned strongly against data centers, increasingly bringing up their downsides in their public posts and newsletters. 133
Reposted by Scott ClementPew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 24/08/2026In our spring survey, 35% of Canadians said the United States is a reliable partner to their country, down from 83% in 2022, the last time we asked this question. 23406143
Reposted by Scott ClementScott Nover @scottnover.bsky.social · 23/08/2026John Solomon, once a reporter for the Associated Press and The Washington Post, has in recent years become a prominent figure in pro-Trump media. His prize: a job in the White House. My profile of Solomon: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...washingtonpost.comHow a dogged D.C. journalist became Trump’s investigative reporter in the White HouseOnce a reporter for the Associated Press and The Washington Post, Solomon veered rightward in his coverage. His prize: a job in Donald Trump’s White House. 4229