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Seth Masket

@smotus.bsky.social
45K followers 1.9K following 138 posts

"A very accessible, very interesting, non-bombastic political scientist." -Jonah Goldberg Subscribe to my newsletter "The Smotus Report" about US politics in an endangered democracy: smotus.substack.com

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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 1h
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 1h
If you're so innocent, then how did my staff find this receipt from you shopping at [squints] Traitor Joe's?
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 18h
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social wrote a while back that there was such a low threshold for getting a Republican scandal claim on Fox News that people weren't bothering to do basic research on them before trying them out, and I think we're seeing a great example of that today
nytimes.com
Jack Smith Defends Trump Charges as Senator’s Perjury Claim Falls Apart
A Republican eager to prove the former special counsel was dishonest appeared to instead demonstrate his own confusion over basic facts.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In the 2019 "Silicon Valley" finale, the company had inadvertently created an AI that was trying to destroy all data encryption and end privacy rights. The team decided to blow up their own creation while making it look like a failure so no one else would try it.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New at the Smotus Report: A network analysis of presidential announcement speeches can give us an idea of who is central to the party and who isn’t — and who is more likely to win as a result
smotus.substack.com
Predicting the presidential nominees... from their announcement speeches
A new paper focusing on presidential announcement speech rhetoric
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The Editorial Board @editorialboard.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
1. The Washington Sun called it "panic week." Republicans seemed to wake up to the fact that things are not going to get better. This was the week in which they realized, all at once, that the light at the end of the tunnel may be from an oncoming train. mailchi.mp/washingtonsu...
mailchi.mp
Panic Week
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The 1972 ANES is a trip
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
That's a full 0.5" of direct democracy
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
A Terminator film that focuses on the humans who remain convinced that Skynet will still work for them if they use it correctly, long after they’ve launched the nuclear missiles
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Folks check out this call for submissions for @theforum-degruyter.bsky.social's special issue on Sports and American Politics. @amandafriesen.bsky.social and Christopher Dawes are guest editing. Deadline is 12/1.
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Amanda Friesen @amandafriesen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Chris Dawes (NYU) and I are editing a special issue of The Forum on Sports and American Politics. Deadline for full papers is December 1. We welcome a variety of methods and levels of analysis! Happy to answer questions.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Interviewing the inventor of napalm about his hats
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Will no one rid me of this meddlesome creature that I continue to construct?
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We don't talk enough about how Neil Diamond’s “Acapulco,” from the Jazz Singer album, features a ton of steel drums, which are a Caribbean instrument and have nothing to do with Acapulco, located on Mexico’s west coast. It’s like if he did a song called “Dublin” featuring didgeridoos.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New at the Smotus Report: A post-midterms GOP is not about to pivot away from Trump, even if they get wiped out
smotus.substack.com
What if November is catastrophic for the GOP?
Could the party pivot? How? Toward what or whom?
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Both HRC and Harris ran in years when the environment was not favorable for a Democratic win. (HRC even won the popular vote.) Their losses are far better explained by conditions than by sex. (And as David notes, women run statewide all the time without any notable disadvantage.)
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David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
There are reasons not to want AOC as a nominee, and she may have her own reasons if, despite signals, she doesn't run, but the idea that a woman per se is less electable is not well-supported. Sexism is real, but so is racism and Obama and other Black candidates have won outside Black districts.1)
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monstrous_gloss @monstrousgloss.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I think about this scene from Andor a LOT and repeat this phrase to myself often: "Power doesn't panic."
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What's the opposite of a "convention bounce?" @smotus.bsky.social may know smotus.substack.com/p/and-thats-...
smotus.substack.com
And that’s why you never do a midterm convention
Trump wants people to vote as if he’s on the ballot. They’re listening.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New at the Smotus Report: Since Trump’s GOP midterm convention, his approval rating has stayed the same, while his party’s candidates are doing worse — he made himself the issue
smotus.substack.com
And that’s why you never do a midterm convention
Trump wants people to vote as if he’s on the ballot. They’re listening.
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Steven (with a PH) @sjksalisbury.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Christening a baby is nothing like christening a ship. I know that now. Once again I can only apologise.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
We’re at a point where to signal moderation you distance yourself from Twitter
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Larry Glickman @larryglickman.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The future tense of the headline (“will pay him back”) conflicts with the past tense that the president used (“I hear he’s paid him back”). The story doesn’t tell us whether the Times attempted to confirm whether Don Jr. has done this or plans to do so. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/19/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Says His Son Will Pay Back Russian Businessman for Wedding Party
The president said his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., had decided to return the money, but defended the gift worth hundreds of thousands of dollars as “totally allowed.”
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Oh fuck
cpr.org
‘Just a big rock pile:’ St. Mary’s Glacier has melted
An abnormally hot summer following record snow drought has melted one Colorado’s most iconic natural landmarks.
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Kathleen Lenihan @kathleenlenihan.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The entire article is fantastic, but the writer's definition of a trad wife is *chef's kiss* perfection. "Those are conservative women who dress like the women in The Sound of Music, but without the opposition to the Anschluss."
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This is way more CD3 behavior than CD4 #coloradohumor
rawstory.com
Lauren Boebert accused of sex with three staffers in complaint alleging $200K hush payment
An explosive sworn complaint filed with the House Ethics Committee alleges Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) carried on a sexual relationship with her district director in the office, in a car and in campaig...
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
The ratio of what I’ve seen and heard *about* Hasan Piker to what I’ve seen and heard *from* Hasan Piker is approaching Kim Kardashian levels
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
You: The 1990s were a rare moment of tranquility between the endless militarism of the Cold War and the endless militarism of the War on Terror Me:
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Now witness the integrity and solidarity of the fully operational White House Press Corps
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Mike Noble @mikenoble.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Ultimate Man shook my hand and then told me exactly how I was going to die.
WSJ EXCLUSIVE
Belgian Scientists create “Ultimate Man" AI sex bot that they believe will replace real men entirely by 2035
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Ted Lasso is a Muppet movie, and Ted is the only human 
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"Much of Donald Trump’s second term has been about him asserting the presence of a crisis, which gives him the power to act quickly and avoid oversight or even lawmaking. Many observers said that there just wasn’t a crisis, but the Constitution actually doesn’t give us much of an answer on that."
smotus.substack.com
Our four constitutional crises
Some thoughts on Constitution Day
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Don't want to read *too* much into this, but in the wake of the GOP midterm convention, Trump's approval rating is unchanged, but the generic congressional vote has moved sharply in the Democratic direction. That is, it didn't change people's view of Trump, it just applied that view to the midterms
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
My hot take: We are not arguing about SSRIs. Some of us are using them as prescribed by our doctors to treat mental health difficulties. This administration has decided that's a problem based on no actual research.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Bret: Millions of Americans, including me, not only hate the parties but also hate the party for which we typically vote. That means there's a market of the dissatisfied. I hear this all the time among my friends in New York City: They can't believe they're stuck with Zohran Mamdani as mayor, and they felt the same way about Eric Adams and Bill de Blasio before him. But when you ask them if they voted in the primaries, the usual answer is: Uh, no — we were on the Vineyard or in Greece. The point is that it's on them, or us, and the remedy is some civic
entrepreneurship, philanthropically funded, to change this.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New at the Smotus Report: On Constitution Day, looking at the four types of crisis our constitution faces. smotus.substack.com/p/our-four-cons…
smotus.substack.com
Our four constitutional crises
Some thoughts on Constitution Day
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Jacob Geller @jacobgeller.com · 17/09/2026
Mel Blanc screams are like Greek fire, we lost the technology to make sounds like this
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
From @kevinmkruse.bsky.social / Zelizer, a reminder from 1974 about how things can go during a gas shortage
As gas supplies dwindled, frustration and desperation set in. Most service stations abided by voluntary "Gasless Sundays" to conserve, but owners worried about the cuts. "Our stations' December allotments have been cut from 10 to 20 percent," lamented the head of the Long Island Gasoline Retailers Association Drivers were forced to wait in long lines to purchase ever-dwindling amounts of gasoline, leading to short tempers and violent outbursts. In Mary-land, for instance, a group of angry drivers grabbed a man from his car after he tried to cut in line, dragged him away and beat him mercilessly, leaving him bruised and bleeding by the road. In Connecticut, one gasoline dealer reported that a woman had offered to sleep with him in exchange for two dollars' worth of fuel. With all of these stories, the news constantly reminded audiences that the once omnipotent United States was being held hostage by a small group of countries that did not possess anything near America's military power.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I wrote the other day about AI becoming a populist issue that transcended party lines, not realizing Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon were about to share a stage on this topic! smotus.substack.com/p/ai-as-the-...
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I would love to be this psyched about using Concur
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
At the Smotus Report: AI/data centers has all the makings of a big populist issue at a time when the populist wings of both parties are ascendant: -Shady elites who think they're above the law -Emotional resonance rooted in grievance -A sense of conspiracy
smotus.substack.com
AI as the next big populist issue
This is the kind of thing that can fundamentally change a party or a political system
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Steven Mazie @stevenmazie.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
BREAKING: Supreme Court refuses to greenlight Trump‘s postal voting rule. The apparent vote is 7-2, with Justices Alito and Thomas dissenting
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
In an interview with me, United's chatbot says I might have a shorter layover in Atlanta than in Dallas-Fort Worth
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
New at the Smotus Report: AI is quickly emerging as the new populist issue — the sort of thing that can upend parties and transform the political system
smotus.substack.com
AI as the next big populist issue
This is the kind of thing that can fundamentally change a party or a political system
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This week I'm teaching about the election of 2020, which happened a few months ago and also when my students were in middle school
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Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
As the mom of a recent college graduate and current college freshman and a college prof for 30+ years I am BEGGING you not to do this. Worried About Your College Kid? Now You Can Hire a Local Mom. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/13/w...
nytimes.com
Worried About Your College Kid? Now You Can Hire a Local Mom.
At some universities, parents can pay to make sure their children are cared for, the way they were back home.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
My wild-ass forecast from earlier this year of Dems picking up 46 House seats is looking less wild-ass with each passing day
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Here's a Joe Biden ad vowing to root out systemic racism, in an election he won comfortably
livingroomcandidate.org
The Living Room Candidate - Commercials - 2020 - Heal America
An archive of presidential campaign commercials from 1952 to the present, organized by year, type, and issue, with teacher resources and playlists by experts.
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