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Michael Bitzer

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social
3.4K followers 619 following 974 posts

Professor of Politics & History; Director, @ncpolitics.bsky.social. Manager, Old North State Politics blog (@oldnorthstpolitics.bsky.social). Interested in NC politics, Southern US politics, & US Politics.

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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 13h
NCFREE sees narrower Republican majority in North Carolina House #ncpol #ncga ncpoliticalnews.com/news/ncfree-...
ncpoliticalnews.com
NCFREE sees narrower Republican majority in North Carolina House
RALEIGH - NCFREE's current outlook identifies nine North Carolina House races as toss-ups and says the Republican majority could narrow substantially while remaining intact.
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 15h
Voters who live near data centres are swinging hard towards the Democrats, in our polling with YouGov www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
Line chart showing the Democratic two-party vote share among Americans living within 2km of a data centre compared with those living further away, from June 2025 to October 2026. Both groups start at around 52%. The Democratic share among those living within 2km rises sharply to 61% by October 2026, compared with a gradual increase to 55% among those living further away. Shaded areas show 95% confidence intervals, which are considerably wider for those living near data centres.
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 22h
New Substack analysis posted for #ncpol:
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
#ncpol #nccourts
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
static.klipy.com
Georgia Bulldogs Mascot Cheers: Go Dawgs!
ALT: Georgia Bulldogs Mascot Cheers: Go Dawgs!
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Gerry Cohen @gercohen.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
Wake Co NC got 1500+ voter registrations + address updates Fri +351 voted absentee ballots. Got 2 more tubs of mail today (registrations timely mailed before deadline plus absentees). Registrations received before deadline at libraries and other agencies likely to trickle in early next week. #ncpol
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
“'There’s nothing that Trump can do, and frankly, even if he did something, no one would believe it anyway at this point,' said one GOP operative working on battleground races, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape." www.politico.com/news/2026/10...
politico.com
‘Ship has sailed’: New poll shows even an end to the war or lower gas prices may not save Republicans
A new POLITICO Poll shows most Americans, especially Democratic and undecided voters, would not be moved even if Trump ended the Iran war or brought down gas prices.
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
94 years: that's how long it's been since Democrats won a Senate race in Kansas. But Democrat Adam Hamilton is running a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's polling average. The DDHQ Forecast still gives Marshall about a 2 in 3 chance. #KSSen
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
@cookpolitical.com moves 18 US House races to the Democrats, including NC 1 to Toss Up from Lean Republican #ncpol thecookpoliticalreport.substack.com/p/18-more-ho...
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
This week's Pollwatcher newsletter includes a comparison of partisan response rates to Washington Post-Schar School Michigan polls in 2024 and 2026 to give a sense of whether dynamics have shifted ->
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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
There's a lot of good stuff in this post by @smotus.bsky.social but a really key point that I need to think more about is that we don't seem to have a clear theory of when Trump follows through on his most extreme threats and when he doesn't smotus.substack.com/p/preparing-...
smotus.substack.com
Preparing for the attack on democracy
Some lawmakers try to head off an unlikely but plausibly damaging barrage of election denialism
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
North Carolinians Overwhelmingly Reject Political Violence But See It As Likely Around Elections, Catawba College-YouGov Survey Finds Roughly six in 10 see political violence as at least somewhat likely in North Carolina & nationally #ncpol ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/north-caro...
ncpoliticscenter.substack.com
North Carolinians Overwhelmingly Reject Political Violence But See It As Likely Around Elections, Catawba College-YouGov Survey Finds
More than nine in 10 say threats, intimidation, and violence should never influence election administration; roughly six in 10 see political violence as at least somewhat likely in North Carolina
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PsyPost @psypost.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Conservatives’ more rigid thinking styles don’t seem to make them likelier than liberals to toe the party line
psypost.org
Conservatives’ more rigid thinking styles don’t seem to make them likelier than liberals to toe the party line
Conservatives tend to report more rigid thinking styles than liberals, but that doesn't appear to make them more likely to follow their party's lead. Across dozens of issues, both groups shifted toward their party's stance about equally.
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Colin Campbell @raleighreporter.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The #ncga is back in session today to temporarily pause the gas tax. Here's how it would work: www.wunc.org/politics/202... #ncpol
wunc.org
NC legislature voting to drop gas tax until Nov. 30
State lawmakers plan to vote Wednesday afternoon to pause North Carolina's gas tax in the midst of high prices caused by the war in Iran.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 06/10/2026
Split-ticket symmetry in New Hampshire .. Latest polls: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
@cookpolitical.com just moved 3 U.S. Senate races. #ncpol from "lean Democratic" to "likely Democratic."
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Majority parties of the president lose generic ballot support as midterms approach, especially at the end. It responds to falling prez approval & thermostatic public opinion. Backlash to the Iran War & immigration crackdowns will help Dems, but are consistent with normal cycle
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I really like this question. KFF asked voters who said they were more motivated than usual for this election to explain why they felt that way -- top answers to bring change, or anti-Trump sentiment www.kff.org/public-opini...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The shift in the generic ballot against the president's party continues. Although consistent with the historic pace & direction, this should be close to the largest 2-year shift in generic ballot polling on record; see below for the averages since the 30s www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba...
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
New #ncpol survey findings:
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
NC's mail-in ballots accepted so far: 2026 is 19.3% below 2022's same-day total. Among 18,779 mail voters: 3,197 (17.0%) also returned an accepted mail ballot by the matched point in 2022. 9,157 (48.8%) appear in full 2022 accepted-mail. By parties/race-ethnicity/generations: #ncpol
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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 05/10/2026
You see, the benevolent dictator is more efficient, but only if he acts in my interests. What happens then, when there is a benevolent dictator who acts on behalf of others and brings harm to me? How do we prevent that? Oh, I guess you haven't read that far yet.
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
"Partisan polarization is not the greatest threat to U.S. democracy, but a symptom of a deeper struggle over who belongs and deserves equal rights." Critical and important article by @lilymasonphd.bsky.social www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/pol...
journalofdemocracy.org
Polarization Is Not the Problem | Journal of Democracy
Americans have never been angrier with one another. But polarization is not the disease—it is the response to a revanchist movement seeking to roll back sixty years of social progress.
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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
A new twist on nationalized politics ⤵️ My guess is that this phenomenon isn't unique to TX & isn't helping Republican efforts to push against the national midterm tide. www.politico.com/news/2026/10...
politico.com
Campaign ‘all coming from DC,’ Paxton says
“I don’t control message or what we’re doing,” Texas GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton said during a small fundraising event in September.
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
#ncpol Gift link: wapo.st/471sxgF
wapo.st
How Roy Cooper became Democrats’ best chance to flip a Senate seat
The former North Carolina governor is running in a state that for decades has more often preferred Republicans for federal office.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The best cure for ideological bias is find someone on the other side and go to lunch with them.⁣ ⁣ Sometimes we disagree about facts. Sometimes we disagree about values. Figuring out which is which is fun part. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/…
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
NC election experts warn about voter trust as AI makes political misinformation easier to create State election officials, journalists & democracy experts say transparency and & local sources will be increasingly important as AI-generated political content spreads ncnewsline.com/2026/10/02/n...
ncnewsline.com
NC election experts warn about voter trust as AI makes political misinformation easier to create • NC Newsline
Artificial intelligence is making it easier to create realistic political images, videos and audio, leaving voters with a new question as they head toward the midterm elections: How do they know what ...
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WUNC News @wunc.org · 02/10/2026
Interested in becoming a local public radio news reporter? WUNC News is seeking a politics reporter to report and tell the stories of power dynamics across multiple layers of government. Deadline to apply is Oct. 21. www.wunc.org/wunc-jobs
wunc.org
WUNC Jobs
Work with us at WUNC! Join us in our mission to provide high-quality news, cultural and entertainment content to create a more informed and engaged community in the the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill regi...
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
No longer a "pause" "The top super PAC for Senate GOP is canceling all the remaining ads it had booked in NC as of Friday, shifting away tens of millions of dollars in a move that signals that Republicans no longer see a path to winning the state this fall." #ncpol www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/u...
nytimes.com
Republicans Pull Money From North Carolina Senate Race As Midterm Prospects Dim (Gift Article)
As the Republicans try to hold their majority, the Senate Leadership Fund is diverting resources to Kansas, which has become a growing concern for the party.
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
“The SLF now plans to stop its spending on Senate ads in the state and redirect millions of dollars to more competitive races, a person directly familiar with the SLF’s strategy told WRAL on Friday.” #ncpol #ncsen www.wral.com/news/nccapit...
wral.com
Major Republican group pauses US Senate ad spending in NC, where GOP’s Whatley trails in polls
The Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee that pledged to spend $71 million to help Republican Michael Whatley in the race for North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate seat, plans to pause ads...
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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Oct 2 #ncpol 📪 voting update: 🗳️17,659 ballots cast/ 17,446 accepted from 99 counties 🗳️20% fewer ballots accepted than same day 2022--dems down 30% 🗳️voter location I'd most like to visit; Amiens, France 🗳️graphs ⤵️
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I'm not sure who saw this coming, but so far nearly all the jobs created during the second Trump administration have gone to women.
Line chart titled "So far during Trump's second term, just 8% of all job growth has gone to men" showing change in employment by gender since January 2025. Total nonfarm employment grew by 776,000 jobs through September 2026, with women gaining 711,000 positions (92% of growth) while men added only 65,000 jobs (8% of growth). Women's employment gains accelerated sharply through 2026, reaching 711,000 by September, while men's employment growth remained flat with brief periods of decline, including a drop of 96,000 jobs in February 2026.
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Data found in zip folder located at: dl.ncsbe.gov?prefix=ENRS/... #ncpol
dl.ncsbe.gov
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Among the 17,446 accepted 2026 mail voters: 2,846 (16.3%) also returned an accepted mail ballot by the same point in 2022. 8,540 (49.0%) appear in the full 2022 accepted-mail file. #ncpol
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Comparison of to-date NC accepted mail-in ballots by race/ethnicity & generation cohorts. Slightly more White non-Hispanic than 4 years ago. Very slightly older than 4 years ago, but close in generation %s. #ncpol
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Comparison based on NC registered voter party status, at this point in accepted mail-in ballots: 2022: 52% Democratic / 32% Unaffiliated / 16% Republican 2026: 46% Dem / 38% Una / 16% Rep #ncpol
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
A month after NC mail-in ballots began to be sent out, here are current numbers & comparisons to 4 years ago: 2026 through Oct. 1: 17,446 2022 thru Oct. 6: 20,996 2026 is 3,550 behind same day totals from 4 years ago. Most significant drop is among NC registered Democrats #ncpol
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
President Trump continues to see his approval ratings underwater in North Carolina. (@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social @ncpolitics.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/261001-top...
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Key point: "the last 3 presidential elections showed varying levels of pro-Democratic bias in polls, on average. But House and Senate pre-election polls showed very little bias in the two midterms of the Trump era: 2018 and 2022. "
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Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
#ncpol
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Jamie Boll @jamieboll.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
New Catawba College/You Gov survey shows President Trump's approval rating slipping further in North Carolina. I talked to @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social about the impact on the mid-terms. #ncpol www.wbtv.com/video/2026/1...
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Fascinating database of judicial rulings regarding ICE detentions. www.politico.com/news/2026/05...
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The Associated Press @apnews.com · 01/10/2026
BREAKING: Renee Good’s family sues the U.S. government and immigration officials over her killing in Minneapolis.
bit.ly
Renee Good's family sues US government and immigration officials over her killing in Minneapolis
Renee Good’s family has sued the U.S. government and several immigration officials, alleging wrongful death and other violations of federal law in the 37-year-old woman’s killing by an immigration officer during a federal crackdown in Minnesota.
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Just released Catawba-YouGov Survey of #ncpol on: --Trump's approval/disapproval --US Senate vote intention --US House Generic Ballot #ncpol
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Those two are....something. Wonder what other congressional contests are having...shall we say..."unique dynamics" to them.
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
“‘There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration's failure to address the economic concerns of voters,’ North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shoemaker said of the state's U.S. Senate race.” #ncpol #ncsen www.wfdd.org/politics-gov...
wfdd.org
GOP doubts about Georgia and North Carolina have Republicans shifting focus in battle for Senate
Republicans once saw Georgia and North Carolina as promising pieces of their strategy to keep control of the Senate. But hopes of winning the two states have been fading, and the GOP is increasingly f...
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Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A phenomenal moment in the Senate. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., claims he has evidence Jack Smith went to a HAWKS game in Atlanta. Smith denies it. Schmitt declares he has busted Jack Smith for perjury. Smith, vexed, says he went to HAWKEYES game in Maryland. WATCH IN FULL, UNINTERRUPTED
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Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Where's the level of opposition to AI Data Centers in American communities? Check out these results, and more about Americans' confidence in elections and the impact of AI on elections & campaigns, in this Catawba-YouGov National Survey: ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/catawba-co...
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Scott Huffmon @huffmon.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Deport ‘em all and let God sort ‘em out? Which is worse: deport a legal immigrant or let an illegal immigrant stay? open.substack.com/pub/winthrop...
open.substack.com
Immigrants and Immigration in SC: Is it about them coming or who is coming?
Attitudes towards immigration, as an issue, and immigrants, as a group, don't always seem to line up in South Carolina. What does take to become "one of us?"
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