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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 8h

Our Wisconsin Governor polling average is live! Based on 11 published polls, Democrat David Crowley holds a slight lead over Republican Tom Tiffany. 🟦David Crowley: 46.3% 🟥Tom Tiffany: 43.8%

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 9h

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Generic Ballot 🟦Democrats: 48.8% 🟥Republicans: 40.9% With a lead of nearly 8 points, Democrats have a strong advantage in our polling average. Both the margin and the Democratic share are among the highest of the cycle.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 13h

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: North Carolina Senate 🟦 Roy Cooper: 49.6% 🟥 Michael Whatley: 40.5% No Republican has lost a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008. This race is seen as a must-win for Democrats. The DDHQ Forecast rates #NCSen as Likely Democratic.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Democrats' lead in the DDHQ generic ballot polling average is 8.7 points, their highest mark this year and up more than 2 points since the start of September. The DDHQ Forecast gives Democrats a 76% chance of flipping the House and a 55% chance of flipping the Senate.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Our latest Texas Senate polling average shows Democrat James Talarico with a lead of 4.1% over Republican Ken Paxton. In the DDHQ Forecast, Talarico is a 57% favorite to win. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Texas since 1988.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

DDHQ FORECAST: Democrats have a 55% chance of a Senate majority. The biggest projected swings from 2024 are in GOP-held seats: close to 16 points in Alaska, more than 15 in Texas and 14 in Iowa. Maine bucks the trend, with Susan Collins (R) averaging a 0.02-point lead. #AKSen #TXSen #IASen

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Likely Republican -> Leans Republican South Carolina's Gubernatorial race has shifted. Republican Alan Wilson now has a 74% probability of winning, which is enough to shift the race into the Leans column. Wilson leads in projected vote share by nine percentage points.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Our Florida Senate polling average is live. Republican Ashley Moody holds a 5-point lead over Democrat Angie Nixon, based on ten published polls. The DDHQ Forecast gives Moody a 78% chance to win, and rates it as Likely Republican.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

In the DDHQ Forecast, Democrats are favored to flip five seats, enough to secure a Senate majority. They have a 54% chance of winning control of the Senate. Democrats are favored in Toss Up races in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. North Carolina is a Likely Democratic flip.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

DDHQ Forecast (9/28) Our forecast now gives Democrats a 51% chance of winning control of Congress. Democrats are forecasted to win 232 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate. This is the first time our forecast has had Democrats as favorites to flip Congress this cycle.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

2018: Beto O'Rourke (D) led in 1 Texas Senate poll through September 2026: James Talarico (D) has led in 25 of 30 Talarico leads Ken Paxton (R) 47%-44% in DDHQ's polling average. The @texastribune.org's @gbirenbaum.bsky.social & DDHQ's @geoffreyskelley.com on why this race is different. #TXSen

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Alaska Senate Polling Average (DDHQ): 🟦 Mary Peltola: 50% 🟥 Dan Sullivan: 48% The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola just over a 3 in 5 shot of winning, making Alaska the Democrats' second-most likely Senate flip after North Carolina. #AKSen

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

DDHQ Forecast Update (9/25): Democrats now have a 72% chance of flipping the House, and are forecasted to win 232 seats. In the DDHQ Forecast, Democrats are favored to gain seats from coast to coast, including two seats in Iowa and three in Pennsylvania.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

New Jersey's 7th congressional district is rated as Likely Democratic in the latest DDHQ Forecast. Democrat Rebecca Bennett has an 80% chance of unseating incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. Democrats only need to net three seats to secure a majority in the House.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

DDHQ Governor Forecast (9/23): Our latest Governor Forecast has Dems favored to flip three states, and Republicans favored to flip one. Democrats are favored in a majority of states overall. Georgia:🟥>🟦 Iowa:🟥>🟦 Kansas:🟦>🟥 Ohio: 🟥>🟦

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Leans Republican -> Toss Up In our gubernatorial forecast update, Florida's gubernatorial race has shifted into the Toss Up column. Byron Donalds now has a 60% win probability, down from 68% at the start of September.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

ELECTION Night: Local elections in Alabama, Iowa, and South Carolina. Polls close at 7:00 eastern in South Carolina, 8:00 eastern in Alabama, and 9:00 eastern in Iowa.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

DDHQ Forecast Update (9/22) The most competitive Senate races in our forecast: Holds: Iowa: 50% R Michigan: 68% D Florida: 78% R Flips: Maine: 53% D (🟥>🟦) Ohio: 54% D(🟥>🟦) Texas: 55% D (🟥>🟦) Alaska: 61% D (🟥>🟦) North Carolina: 79% D (🟥>🟦)

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Toss Up -> Leans Democratic In today's DDHQ Forecast update, Alaska's Senate race is out of the Toss Up column. Democrat Mary Peltola has a 61% win probability, up from 51% in late July.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Not since 1992 has this much of Congress headed for the exits before an election. 100 members — 84 House, 16 Senate — have left or announced departures since January 2025. That's 18% of the 119th Congress.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

House Forecast Update (9/21) In the DDHQ Forecast, Democrats are favored in 231 House seats, while Republicans are favored in 204. Only seven seats are rated as Toss Ups. Democrats have a 70% chance of flipping the House.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (9/21) Our latest forecast update gives Democrats a 70% chance of flipping the House, and a 52% chance of flipping the Senate. Democrats have a 49% to flip both chambers, and are favored in 231 House seats and 51 Senate seats.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Likely Republican -> Leans Republican Republican Darline Graham remains the favorite in South Carolina's Senate race, but her odds have slipped from 87% last month to 74% now.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Maine Senate 🟦 Troy Jackson (D): 47% 🟥 Susan Collins (R): 45% Jackson leads, but the DDHQ Forecast gives each candidate about a 1 in 2 shot. Collins has outrun her polling before. #MESen Read DDHQ's latest polling memo:

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

📈 Can Susan Collins outrun the polls in Maine again?

The Republican incumbent narrowly trails Democrat Troy Jackson in the Pine Tree State’s critical Senate contest

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Polling remains close in Michigan's Senate race. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed currently holds a lead of 2.5% over Republican Mike Rogers. In the DDHQ Forecast, the race is listed as Lean Democratic, with El-Sayed having a 67% probability of winning.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: President Donald Trump's approval rating is down to 39.7%, with 58.9% disapproving. This net approval of -19.2% is Trump's lowest since June 2026. Meanwhile, Democrats lead by 7.2% in the generic ballot, their largest lead since May 2026.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Leans Democrat > Likely Democrat The DDHQ Forecast now has Rebecca Bennett as likely to win in #NJ07, with a 76% win probability and a projected margin of five points. Trump carried this seat by one point in the 2024 presidential election.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: #NC11 has moved from Leans Republican to Toss Up. Republican Jennifer Balkcom now has a 58% win probability over Democrat Jamie Ager. Donald Trump carried this western North Carolina-based seat by 9.5% in 2024.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

68% → 61%. That's how far Republican Byron Donalds' win probability has slipped in DDHQ's Florida governor forecast this month, as Democrat David Jolly gains ground each week. The race is nearing the range where it would become a Toss Up.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Governor Races Democrats are favored in 19 of 36 races this cycle, and 11 races are in the competitive Leans or Toss Up categories. Forecasted Flips: Georgia:🟥>🟦(63% D) Iowa:🟥>🟦(61% D) Kansas:🟦>🟥(73% R)

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Decision Desk HQ projects Joseph Arminio wins the DE US House At-Large Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 9:11 PM EDT

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Chris Coons has a commanding lead, but among the challengers making up the remaining ~17 of the vote, Eric Hansen, listed on the ballot as "E. No-Trump Hansen", is in last with only 3% of the vote. Hansen was the 2024 Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Decision Desk HQ projects Michael Katz wins the DE US Senate Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 8:29 PM EDT

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

DDHQ Race Update (est. 28% in): Delaware US House At-Large Republican Primary Joseph Arminio (R): 4,397 (43.1%) John Whalen III (R): 3,411 (33.4%) Earl Cooper (R): 2,398 (23.5%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/293194

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

DDHQ Race Update (est. 29% in): Delaware US Senate Republican Primary Michael Katz (R): 7,718 (74.1%) John Shulli (R): 2,698 (25.9%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/293192

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Decision Desk HQ projects Kathy Jennings wins the DE Attorney General Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 8:15 PM EDT

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Decision Desk HQ projects Chris Coons wins the DE US Senate Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 8:14 PM EDT

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

LIVE: Coverage of tonight's Delaware primaries with Geoffrey Skelley and Grace Panetta. www.youtube.com/watch?v=uANY...

youtube.com

Decision Desk 2026: Delaware Primary Livestream

YouTube video by Decision Desk HQ

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: In the last week, the DDHQ Forecast for Iowa's Senate race has shifted 7 points towards the Democrats. Republican Ashley Hinson is now at a 52% probability to win, and the race is listed as a Toss Up.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

7 of the 9 states that redrew their U.S. House maps this cycle are using Republican-drawn lines. But our 2026 forecast has Democrats making an average net gain of about 2 seats across those 9 states. Redistricting isn't shaping up to be the majority-saver the GOP hoped for.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

FORECAST UPDATE: Democrats favored to flip the Senate Decision Desk HQ's latest model shows Democrats leading in almost every swing state, with five seats currently forecasted to flip: 🟥→🟦 North Carolina: 77% D 🟥→🟦 Alaska: 59% D 🟥→🟦 Texas: 55% D 🟥→🟦 Ohio: 54% D 🟥→🟦 Maine: 53% D

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Decision Desk HQ's Monday newsletter is coming out this afternoon, so sign up to receive it in your inbox! We take a look at what DDHQ's forecast says about the effect of redistricting on the 2026 House race. Hint: Republicans aren't positioned to get quite what they wanted. Sign up here:

decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Decision Desk HQ | Substack

Home to Decision Desk HQ's analysis of U.S. elections and politics, led by The Bellwether newsletter. Click to read Decision Desk HQ, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Texas Senate Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 3.4 points in the latest DDHQ average — 49.6% to 43.7%. Talarico has held the lead throughout the campaign, with the margin widening over the past month.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: Iowa Governor Our polling average for the 2026 Iowa Governor race is now live. and Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 5.9 percentage points. Iowa last elected a Democratic governor in 2006. We'll continue updating this average as new polling becomes available.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Iowa Senate Polling Average: 🟦 Josh Turek: 45.6% 🟥 Ashley Hinson: 45.1% (-0.9% 1W) Polling has been consistently close, but in recent weeks Turek has led in a majority of polls. Hinson remains favored in the DDHQ Forecast, with a 56% probability to win.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The DDHQ Forecast rates Pennsylvania's 10th district as Lean Democratic. In a rematch of 2024's House election, Janelle Stelson has a 64% probability to beat incumbent Rep. Scott Perry. Stelson has held a consistent lead in the model since May.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

In DDHQ's latest podcast, we looked at our new governors forecast! Texas remains a red-leaning state even though #TXSen is a toss-up. That's required a blue environment + weak candidate (Paxton). But in #TXGov, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has about a 3 in 4 shot of winning reelection.

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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

In Michigan's 7th congressional district, Democrat Will Lawrence is the favorite. The DDHQ Forecast gives Lawrence a 66% probability of winning, with incumbent Tom Barrett at a 34% probability. This is one of the key Democratic targets and will play a key role in House control.

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