iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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SubRosa )✿( Magick (chat to book a reading) @subrosamagick.bsky.social · 3h

🦭 This 9 ft bronze and stainless steel statue of Kópakonan (The Seal Wife) was created by Hans Pauli Olsen and was installed in the Mikladalur Harbor on Kalsoy, one of the Faroe Islands, on August 1st, 2014. Photo Credit ~ Esbern Christiansen

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SubRosa )✿( Magick (chat to book a reading) @subrosamagick.bsky.social · 3h

🧜‍♀️ Selkies are a variation on the mermaid concept in Scottish, Irish, Icelandic and Faroese folklore. 🦭They live in the sea as seals, but can shed their seal hide to become human on land. If their seal skin is hidden or stolen, they are unable to return to the sea.

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JLMeyer @jenniferlmeyer.bsky.social · 5h

Artist! Quote with your art with the best shadows!

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rprobbins.bsky.social @rprobbins.bsky.social · 17h

Such truthful statements 💯🎯

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

Anthropic's numbers are as bad as my worst expectations, and it's impossible to see how it manages to make good on its spending commitments. OpenAI and Anthropic are toxic companies with rotten economics, and should not be allowed to go public. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

In any case, these numbers are as bad as I’ve always thought they’d be, if not a little worse. I don’t see how this company becomes one that can afford its $518 billion in compute commitments, nor do I see how it magically works its way out of the economic equivalent of septic tank.

This company will, if allowed to go public, likely lean on the very same junk-grade/high-yield debt that AI data centers and neoclouds like CoreWeave currently need, and it will do so at volumes of somewhere between $50 billion and $100 billion a year for a company with few assets, endless losses and a CEO with the grace of a drunk elephant.

Anthropic is not the future of technology, nor is it the next Google, nor is it the next Microsoft, nor is it, to quote Reuters, capable of “[transforming] the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet.”

It is impossible to rationally argue that the economics of OpenAI and Anthropic make any real sense. To claim that this is “just like Uber” or “just like Amazon Web Services” or “just like the Dot Com Bubble” is to bury one’s head in the sand or, on some level, want to know less about the world. This is serious, dangerous, and should not be seen as “business as usual.”

We must treat OpenAI and Anthropic as what they are: economic disasters waiting to happen.

To do anything less is to directly invite danger to the door of every investor that’s allowed to believe that they’re funding the next industrial revolution.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus showed that it spent $2.75 to make a dollar in 2025, making it a worse business than OpenAI. It lost $8bn on $4.6bn in revenue. Boosters will say 2025 doesn't count - or, put another way, to ignore your lying eyes. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

This, shockingly, means that Anthropic was a worse business than OpenAI in 2025, when it spent $34 billion to make $13.07 billion (per my own exclusive reporting of its audited financials), or $2.60 to make $1.

While things could change in 2026, it’s important to note how many people said that Anthropic was “a better business” that would “be profitable faster than OpenAI,” which is, until we are able to see both of their audited 2026 financials, somewhere between a myth and an outright lie.

So many people told me that Anthropic was more-profitable! So many people assured me that this company had worked it all out, when in fact Dario Amodei’s horrid son was just as obese as Altman’s, a rotten, unprofitable carcass.

Boosters are already boiling their copium kegs, angrily oinking that 2026 “will be better” and that “Anthropic has been more profitable.” At this point I have less than zero interest in anything that hasn’t gone through an auditor, because it’s very clear that, through either misinforming investors or the media, Anthropic has intentionally obfuscated the full horrors of its economics.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

The AI bubble bursts when the money runs out. That could be when AI startups and model labs can't raise like they used to, or AI data center developers balk at 11% interest on their debt. Or, perhaps, the growth just slows and the party ends. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

Every single day — even on the weekends — someone asks me either how or when all of this breaks, and my answer is simple: when the money runs out.

Eventually, AI data center debt is going to become untenable for those raising it, because 11%+ rates on already-meager margins makes the maths a little impossible. Once this happens, there will be a fundamental reevaluation of the value of all AI data center debt, which may lead to a sell-off of the underlying bonds and associated debt, which will make any investor deeply entrenched in the GPU credit business extremely nervous and, in some cases, unable to exit their positions in anything short of an embarrassing fashion.

This isn’t likely to happen due to moral or ethical reasons, but as a result of creditors realizing that they’ve got way too much risk tied up in projects that regularly make the news for not getting built. At some point these projects become too risky for even the most mold-poisoned private credit fund or brainless Japanese bank to stomach, and the timeline will accelerate based on either Treasury rates or further data center developments facing cashflow or construction problems.

On the venture capital side, it’s unclear how much dry powder actually remains, how much of it could be deployed into AI startups, and whether it’ll be a case of ‘running out of money’ so much as a moment where everybody gets spooked about AI and stops investing entirely. This would be accelerated by any cashflow issues across any major AI startups, any downrounds (IE: raising at a lower valuation), or failed acquisitions, such as when Anthropic walked away from buying Decart for $6 billion earlier in September.

And really, the biggest sign is the most obvious one — the deceleration of Anthropic and OpenAI. If they aren’t going to pay those $1.3 trillion in compute bills, the jig is up for AI data center demand.

The signs are already there that something is up.

Per Irrational Analysis, Anthropic’s record-breaking “$65 billion in annualized revenue run rate” from July 2026 may have been calculated in the single-most-deceptive way I’ve ever heard a startup do so:

Last month, there was a whole kerfuffel in AI/semis/finance circles on Anthropic July ARR. Two numbers were going around. I don’t remember the numbers and frankly it does not matter. You will see.

One ARR number was the traditional “trailing 28 days * 13” number. Personally I hate this venture-capital clown metric but whatever a lot of people use this.

The traditional ARR number was bad and implied deceleration in growth. So the people massively long Anthropic came up with a new ARR number that was July 31st * 365 days.
That’s right folks. If Irrational Analysis is right, Anthropic’s revenue on July 31, 2026 was $178 million, and because the other calculation — 28 days times 13 — created a lower number, the company chose to go with something that should, at a minimum, have investors hiring lawyers and demanding real, tangible answers about how run rate is calculated. Every single reporter with any Anthropic source that can speak to run rates should be screaming at them for clarity, because this is some sub-Enron bullshit.

Even if you don’t trust that analysis, another from TickerTrends surfaced by Callum Williams of The Economist shows Anthropic’s annualized run rate plateauing since, it seems, the beginning of June, and as Williams said, if this is even broadly correct, it’s really, really bad.

Williams also another TickerTrends chart showing OpenAI’s revenue growth had continued to climb…but was showing the initial signs of a slowdown.

Neither of these companies can afford to slow down, in part because of their massive compute obligations, and in part because their massive valuations are based on them being able to pull in, at least in Anthropic’s case, between $190 billion and $200 billion in annual revenue within the next two years.

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EssayWells @essaywells.bsky.social · 11h

At this point I'm genuinely wondering whether the current Stop Me Before I Train Again drama is because both OpenAI and Anthropic have been forced to the realisation that their costs are impossible and they desperately want it to look like "they made us stop", not "we burned all the money".

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

What makes matters worse is that the more money spent, the more expensive AI infrastructure becomes, meaning that hyperscalers have to raise more debt, which in turn becomes more expensive. AI data centers are an inflationary force unlike any in history. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

And a little under a month later, NVIDIA would bump its prices by more than 15%, partly as a result of memory costs, and partly because it has the entire tech industry by the balls.

So, as more AI data center debt gets issued, said debt becomes more expensive, because the larger the amount of debt any one thing takes up, the more competition it faces, and the more risk an investor carries by holding it. Once the debt is issued, it immediately flows into buying GPUs and associated hardware, slowly growing the cost of memory and hardware, all while increasing the competition for the specialist labor and materials needed to build data centers, such as spiking the cost of Copper, increasing the cost of construction by billions in the process.

In other words, the more you buy, the more you lose. The more money you raise, the more money you need. The more money you need, the more expensive that money becomes. And once you spend that money, everything you spent it on becomes more expensive, including raising more money in the future.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

Despite this economic mismatch, hyperscalers are doubling down, and are expected to borrow $400bn next year, all as Treasury yields spike and debt markets sour thanks to Oracle's "Force Majeure" on its New Mexico data center. It only gets more expensive. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

Per Morgan Stanley, AI-related debt issuance should be around $570 billion in 2026, with around $250 billion of that coming from hyperscalers, and the rest various different forms of high-yield debt shoved into either asset-backed securities or dodgy SPVs for AI data centers.

Things are only set to increase next year. Per Goldman Sachs, hyperscalers will fund more than a third of their AI investments with debt in 2027 — around $400 billion — with Jeff Pu of GF Securities putting the number a little higher at $419 billion, against estimated capital expenditures of around $1.14 trillion, specifically referring to Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle.

If we assume that other AI-related debt stays flat on the year, that puts us at $739 billion in AI data center debt in 2027, and if we assume growth matches hyperscaler debt issuance growth (around 67.6%), the number grows to around $939 billion in debt.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

Goldman Sachs says that hyperscalers need $308bn in annual AI revenue to break even on their 2026/2027 capex. I estimate that Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, and SpaceX have AI revenues of $183bn, of which nearly two-thirds come from Anthropic and OpenAI. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

To put that in perspective, Microsoft had around $34.4 billion in AI revenue in fiscal year 2026, of which 70% was OpenAI’s compute spend. Per Barclays estimates, Amazon will have $31.6 billion in total AI revenue in 2026, 73% of which will come from OpenAI and Anthropic, and per UBS estimates, 54.3% of Google’s AI compute sales come from them too, with an undefined amount of Vertex AI model sales coming from Anthropic on top, for a total of around $65 billion in AI revenue, which sounds a little high.

Adding all those together gets us to around $131 billion in AI revenues for Google, Microsoft and Amazon, of which $82.2 billion (62.7%) are from Anthropic and OpenAI.

As of its latest quarter, SpaceX had (when you strip out Twitter’s ad revenues) around $2.194 billion in AI revenue, or $8.7 billion on an annualized basis, but I’ll bump that up to $25 billion on the year to include its full $1.25 billion a month from Anthropic and $920 million a month from Google, though I’ll add that both have 90 day outs. If we assume that Anthropic’s discounted compute for that quarter meant that it accounted for only $500 million of SpaceX’s AI revenue, this puts us at approximately $32.8 billion in AI revenue for SpaceX, with (as I believe Google will rent the compute directly to Anthropic) 79.3% of that coming from Anthropic.

While we don’t know Oracle’s actual AI revenues, it disclosed in its last quarter that its CPU and GPU revenues were at $6.5 billion for the quarter, or around $26 billion a year in revenue. Because I’m feeling nice, I’m going to say that Oracle has approximately $20 billion in annual AI revenue, but due to a lack of information it’s tough to say how much of that is OpenAI, though I’d imagine we’re looking at at least $8 billion or more given the progress of Stargate Abilene and the (as confirmed with sources) H100 and H200 GPUs currently rented to the AI lab. As a result, I think it’s fair to say at least 50% of Oracle’s AI revenues are from OpenAI.

This puts us at $183 billion in annual AI revenue for Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle and SpaceX, with $118.2 billion, or at least 64.3%, coming from Anthropic and OpenAI.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

The AI trade is speculative, depending on the survival of two unsustainable AI labs, themselves dependent on unsustainable startups for revenue. And now multiple banks have estimated that hyperscalers need $3 trillion+ in annual AI revenue to justify their capex. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

I’ll admit it’s vindicating to see so many people suddenly jump on the “how much money do hyperscalers need to justify their capex?” train, even if not a single one of them bothers to give me credit. Per Callum Williams of The Economist, Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and SpaceX will need somewhere in the region of $1.29 trillion in annual AI revenue to get a 10% return on invested capital for their capex through the end of 2027, with the amount rising to $2.87 trillion if this farce continues through 2030.

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

This customer concentration is a big problem for OpenAI and Anthropic, with the 80% of their revenues coming from 1% of customers — most of those being, themselves, unprofitable AI startups subsidizing their users' token spend. Without VC, it all tanks. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

And that’s absolutely what’s happening, suggesting that the “AI boom” is more like five or six large companies (hyperscalers) feeding money to two companies (NVIDIA and Broadcom) so that they can feed money to two companies (Anthropic and OpenAI) who then feed that money back to them whenever capacity comes online. I estimate that there’s around $22 billion of global, non-Anthropic/OpenAI compute demand, and an indeterminately-large chunk of that is coming from AI startups that can only afford to pay for the compute as long as venture capital continues to fund them…

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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 12h

Last week, Fidelity published a report that said the AI trade had become "dead money," with GPU leases and token spending flat or down, and the FT's Bryce Elder reported research that said that 50% of the GPUs sold in 2026 and 2027 wouldn't be installed. www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

Last week, Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurien Timmer said that “the [AI trade] has been dead money for more than three months,” citing that both token expenditures and GPU lease rates were all “flat to down,” citing specifically rental rates for H100 and A100 GPUs. While the counterargument might be that Blackwell GPU rental rates aren’t included, as I discussed last week, it’s questionable how many B200, B300, or other Blackwell chips are actually available for rent, as it appears that anywhere from $200 billion to $300 billion of NVIDIA’s sales since 2022 are sitting in warehouses or unplugged in data centers waiting for power.

The Financial Times’ Bryce Elder took the ball and ran with it, and found research that backed up what I’d been saying, emphasis mine:

Morgan Stanley measured the gap earlier this week by estimating the shortfall in available power, concluding that more than half of the GPU servers sold between 2026 and 2028 might not have anywhere to be plugged in.
Yet Elder makes the point, based on research from Jefferies, that there’re far more problems than simply not having enough power:

In the longer term, power availability is still the bottleneck — along with labour. And transformers. And cooling equipment. And backup generation. As Jefferies says: “The gap between planned capacity and physical execution remains the central issue.”

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the hype @thehyyyype.bsky.social · 8h

He was a squid, she was a cuttlefish, can I make it any more octopus

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Kate Hagen 🦂 𓋹 🦂 @thathagengrrl.bsky.social · 4h

"Meanwhile, Jane Doe dropped out of Cornell and was denied her request to get her tuition refunded so that she could transfer to a different college. She hence faced more severe consequences than most of the men who she alleges gang-raped her." www.thecut.com/article/what...

thecut.com

What It Feels Like at Cornell Right Now

As a professor at the Ivy League school, Kate Manne has known many, many victims. There’s a palpable feeling on campus, she writes, that this is big.

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Comics in the Golden Age @comicsinthega.bsky.social · 5h

Tonight's reading.

Nemo: The Classic Comics Library #29 (1989). The cover shows that the issue features Sunday comic strips from Gasoline Alley by Frank King.

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Miss Riss @missriss.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Mom showing off her post monsoon sunset from down in Golden Valley, Arizona. Lots of flooding, road washouts but they're safe and dry bragging about how pretty it is in the chat

A sunset picture. In the immediate foreground, the ground is dark and shows a few trees and bush tops in dark relief. At the horizon, rows of clouds tinted a blue grey purple mimic mountains in the distance. The sky is a complete coverage explosion of oranges and links mixing endless hues

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SubRosa )✿( Magick (chat to book a reading) @subrosamagick.bsky.social · 4h

Today is Michaelmas Day - a day of “uncanny power” - when, according to Welsh folklore: “the Cistfaens, or warriors’ graves... were illuminated by spectral lights, and it was very unlucky to walk near those places for the ghosts of ancient warriors were engaged in deadly fray.” via Mark Rees

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Amusing Pseudonym @amusingpseudonym.bsky.social · 7h

I know no one has ever told him to his face "that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard", but I prefer to imagine he's heard it SO often that it doesn't even register anymore, like tinnitus.

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The Volatile Mermaid @ohnoshetwitnt.bsky.social · 6h

It’s a close race but this might be one of the dumbest things he’s ever done and that’s saying A LOT.

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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 6h

oh man, I just tried it and america.gov really does get REAL weird when you tell it to “play Minecraft”

america.gov

America.gov

Find answers from official government sources and clear next steps for the services you need with America.gov.

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cultauthor.bsky.social @cultauthor.bsky.social · 6h

My internal radio is playing dark 1970s Cairo jazz and I'm cursing members of the British far right. Yes, I know this is a default setting.

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Mark Hamill @markhamillofficial.bsky.social · 9h

It's inconceivable to me how someone who lost in a free & fair election can incite an angry mob to attack his own government, (the very definition of treason) & be allowed to run for any office ever again.

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Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 15h

🚨 BREAKING 🚨 Burnham: "I will not allow it to continue like this. Today I can confirm Angela Eagle will present a strengthened water bill to Parliament. The center piece of that bill will be this. The repeal of Margaret Thatcher's ideological ban on public ownership of water companies."

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 8h

At a time when the most influential leaders of the U.S. need to stand up loudly and clearly for the rule of law, they are leading the charge in the opposite direction. But not Jack Smith. Kudos to him for continuing to be a much needed voice of clarity.

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Parody Nigel Farage @parodypm.bsky.social · 9h

Join me on GB News where I will be lying about what Andy Burnham said, pretending to give a shit about pensioners and definitely not mentioning any £5m gifts, illegal donations or police investigations.

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Alina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦 @perevaa.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Kyiv is under ballistic attack. Because jet-powered drones alone just weren’t enough.

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Neil Perryman @neilperryman.bsky.social · 18h

Marco Rubio says ‘foreign actor’ behind the plot at RAF Fairford. Is it Mel Gibson?

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Willerby @welcometowillerby.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The Lonely Poplar. A Willerby Story. David tries to help the loneliest tree in England. willerby.substack.com/p/the-lonely...

Screenshot of text from the linked story.

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Marisa Kabas @marisakabas.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

the cornell case has me thinking about christine blasey ford and how she so bravely testified in 2018 about how future supreme court justice brett kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her. i'm thinking about what i wrote at the time and how nothing has changed:

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Kate from Kharkiv @kateinkharkiv.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The vehicle caught fire upon impact. The driver died at the scene, passenger woman managed to survive.

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Mrs. Betty Bowers @mrsbettybowers.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

"If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride. If turnips were swords, I'd have one at my side. If 'ifs' and 'ands' were pots and pans, There'd be no work for tinkers' hands." —Scottish Proverb, 1628 Donald Trump is an insane liar.

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Garnet Henderson @garnethenderson.com · 28/09/2026

@susanrinkunas.com and I have been working on this story for months. It was supposed to publish later this week, but that's news! Despite Bailey's resignation, it's still very relevant. Read to learn about how the Trump admin could use criminal investigations to attack abortion access:

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Olga Lautman 🇺🇦 @olgalautman.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

More terrorist attacks from terrorist Russia as they bomb a hospital in Kyiv and the Science Academy Every single day Russia carries out mass terrorist attacks across Ukraine

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gruffyfarr668.bsky.social @gruffyfarr668.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I appear to have three large SkyBeasts advancing on my position. Please advise. Over. #SkyBeasts

Three large, upright cloud monsters are approaching my garden. The cloudy skyline sets the scene behind the darkening houses and street lights.

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Funranium (AKA Phil Broughton) @funranium.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The main result being a fair bit of despair, and that’s not just because Dick Cheney was there.

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Funranium (AKA Phil Broughton) @funranium.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I remember working through planning about this with responsible, kind, concerned, and knowledgable people. Also Dick Cheney was there.

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Pamela Fiore... and live alone in the bee-loud glade @pfiore8.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

these people are clever, strategic, and good EU should embrace Ukraine into EU and give it special status in as a kind of a how-to-fight-and-win-against-Russia Czar

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𝙱𝚊𝚋𝚎 𝚁𝚞𝚝𝚑𝚕𝚎𝚜𝚜 @unfitz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Autocorrect changed intimate to inanimate and now I’m sexting with a really hot toaster

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CavsKermit @cavskermit.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

They're testing the WH press corp's willingness to maintain a boycott and as the song goes, they never failed to fail, it was the easiest thing to do.

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Jon "The Warhammer Modeller" @warhammermodeller.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Today is Monday and this is a #RandomWhiteDwarfCover Issue 55. July 1984

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The rich would prefer you to believe that the "free market" is subject to the immutable law of supply and demand. But for years, the wealthy and powerful have manipulated the market for their own gain. There is nothing “free” about it. Watch.

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John Cullen @nellucnhoj.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

We no longer live in a world where everyone is aware of Popular Thing, even through osmosis. Yes, we live in bubbles, but that applies to everyone now, due to the sheer mountain of media and options to access it.

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